Is Travis Kelce the GOAT?

[onejayhawk]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

Claiming that Elvis Grback is on the same level as Herbert or Stafford is completely insane. 

Trent Green was better but still not in Herbert/Stafford's tier. 

Herbert, maybe or maybe not. He's still very young. Green's best year has the same AV as Herbert's big 2nd season. Allowing for rule changes tips things to Green.

Grbac and Green are both comparable to Stafford. Elvis had a short tenure but Gonzalez got his good seasons. You can drop the KC part of Green's career into Stafford's stat sheet and mostly not notice (Green had the better career year, see above). They are different flavors of the same level. 

[HerbertGOAT]

4 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Herbert, maybe or maybe not. He's still very young. Green's best year has the same AV as Herbert's big 2nd season. Allowing for rule changes tips things to Green.

Grbac and Green are both comparable to Stafford. Elvis had a short tenure but Gonzalez got his good seasons. You can drop the KC part of Green's career into Stafford's stat sheet and mostly not notice (Green had the better career year, see above). They are different flavors of the same level. 

AV is relative to era; not sure how that's relevant. Grbac was good for like, a year. Green and Stafford are definitely comparable though.

[Jakuvious]

8 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

Dave Casper was the best TE when TEs sucked.

In 1 more game, Kelce has

3 more AV

1058 more yards

2.3 fewer YPC

23 fewer TDs

In seasons where he played more than 75% of the games, Gronk was the 1st team All-Pro TE 4 out of 5 times. In seasons where he played more than 75% of the games, Kelce was the 1st team all-pro TE 4 out of 9 times.

5 year peak stats per 17 games:

Gronk:

90 catches

1331 yards

15 TDs

Kelce:

108 catches

1368 yards

10 TDs

Better blocker? Gronk.

Better playcallers? Kelce.

Better supporting cast from their WRs? Kelce.

Kelce is awesome. Kelce is top 3. Gronk is better. On a per catch basis, nobody has ever been better than Gronk.

The problem is, is you can't just erase the reality that Gronk wasn't actually healthy enough to product all those stats you list, there. Like, you say over 5 years that he would've had a 17 game average of 1331 yards, but 1331 yards is higher than Gronk's career high. He never actually hit that total, because he didn't stay healthy to do so. That number is just imaginary. Gronk's lack of availability has to be part of the discussion or we're not arguing about reality, we're arguing about what could have been. Jamaal Charles has one of the best yards per rushing attempt in NFL history, either 1st or 2nd depending on where you put the cutoff for RBs, but he only made it to 1400 carries because he wasn't healthy and didn't last long, and that is relevant to his legacy, as sad as that is as a Chiefs fan. It's the same for Gronk. You can't just wipe out the biggest issue with his career.

You also list the all-pros for seasons where they played 75% of games, and list 4 out of 5 for Gronk, but let's be realistic here, he was not going to be a first team all-pro in 2010, 2018, or 2021, even if he started all games. 2010 he even played all games, just didn't start a few, so throwing that year out doesn't make any sense. 2016 might have been close, but wouldn't have been a guarantee for either.

[onejayhawk]

8 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

AV is relative to era; not sure how that's relevant.

AV is relative to the league averages. When the whole league changes, AV points follow. 
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm
 

8 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

Grbac was good for like, a year. Green and Stafford are definitely comparable though.

Two years, 1999 and 2000. TG was All-Pro in both seasons. Gannon in 1998 and Green 2001-2008. 

Don't forget five years with Matt Ryan.

[Danger]

He needs to put together a few more elite seasons before I can put him #1 above Gronk or Gonzalez. Right now he's that next rung with Antonio Gates for me.

[AngusMcFife]

15 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Herbert, maybe or maybe not. He's still very young. Green's best year has the same AV as Herbert's big 2nd season. Allowing for rule changes tips things to Green.

You aren't factoring in quality of teammates and coaching. Green played with a great coach and an amazing O-line that could streamroll the best defenses in the league on a good day. 

Stafford and Herbert have produced more with terrible organizations, mediocre-to-bad coaching, and injury-riddled teams. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

I think Gronk is the GOAT until someone else can block and receive at his level.

[Chiefer]

On 6/18/2023 at 12:30 PM, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I think Gronk is the GOAT until someone else can block and receive at his level.

He can’t be the GOAT due to being injured constantly

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

16 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

He can’t be the GOAT due to being injured constantly

That doesn't make sense since he's top 10 in every major TE category all-time...we're not talking about a guy who was a "what if" candidate here. Yeah his injuries derailed a little bit, but doesn't that solidify that he would've been the unquestioned GOAT had he not been injured since he's putting up monster career stats with those injuries?

[Soko]

I think Gronk takes the “at their best, in their primes, when healthy” type debates, but it’s impossible to argue against Kelce’s resume. 

[onejayhawk]

On 6/22/2023 at 10:57 AM, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That doesn't make sense since he's top 10 in every major TE category all-time...we're not talking about a guy who was a "what if" candidate here. Yeah his injuries derailed a little bit, but doesn't that solidify that he would've been the unquestioned GOAT had he not been injured since he's putting up monster career stats with those injuries?

Top 10 but not #1. How can you be the Greatest of All Time when you are not the greatest at any one thing?

Gronk's best claim is TDs per game. Kelce and Gonzalez are both better in other receiving stats. 

Gronk and Kelce are the same age, Gronk in May 1989 and Kelce in October 1989. Yet, Gronk was twice pro-Bowl and had well over 3000 yards before Kelce stepped onto an NFL field. Kelce now has more yards and a higher career AV. Antonio Gates also has a solid argument and he played with Philip Rivers and not Tom Brady. 

Gates is an interesting comparison for Kelce. Unlike Gronk, whose career is ending in his early 30s, Gates played to 38. If Kelce's career winds down in a similar fashion, he might give Gonzalez's career numbers a run. 

[August4th]

it's easily Gronk for me..

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

4 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Top 10 but not #1. How can you be the Greatest of All Time when you are not the greatest at any one thing?

Gronk's best claim is TDs per game. Kelce and Gonzalez are both better in other receiving stats. 

Gronk and Kelce are the same age, Gronk in May 1989 and Kelce in October 1989. Yet, Gronk was twice pro-Bowl and had well over 3000 yards before Kelce stepped onto an NFL field. Kelce now has more yards and a higher career AV. Antonio Gates also has a solid argument and he played with Philip Rivers and not Tom Brady. 

Gates is an interesting comparison for Kelce. Unlike Gronk, whose career is ending in his early 30s, Gates played to 38. If Kelce's career winds down in a similar fashion, he might give Gonzalez's career numbers a run. 

I think the argument most would make is that he was the greatest at these things, but didn't play enough games to accumulate the bulk stats you're trying to look for here.

I don't think anyone is going to argue that Kelce has been a healthier TE than Gronk was. I hate the PFR removed per-game stats from their player comparison otherwise I'd post the per-game stats, but I feel pretty confident Gronk's per-game stats are similar or better than Kelce's and his blocking is the best for any TE ever.

[Malik]

On 6/22/2023 at 11:57 AM, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That doesn't make sense since he's top 10 in every major TE category all-time...we're not talking about a guy who was a "what if" candidate here. Yeah his injuries derailed a little bit, but doesn't that solidify that he would've been the unquestioned GOAT had he not been injured since he's putting up monster career stats with those injuries?

He was referencing an old post

[Jakuvious]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I think the argument most would make is that he was the greatest at these things, but didn't play enough games to accumulate the bulk stats you're trying to look for here.

I don't think anyone is going to argue that Kelce has been a healthier TE than Gronk was. I hate the PFR removed per-game stats from their player comparison otherwise I'd post the per-game stats, but I feel pretty confident Gronk's per-game stats are similar or better than Kelce's and his blocking is the best for any TE ever.

Kelce averages more receptions and yards per game, Gronk averages more TDs. Kelce is at 5.65 catches, 71.83 yards, and .48 TDs per game. Gronk is at 4.34 catches, 64.94 yards, and .65 TDs per game.

FWIW, because I do think it's relevant, Kelce does average .59 TDs per game with Mahomes. QB makes a lot of difference with that stat. It's part of why TDs were Gonzalez's biggest weakness, statistically (.40 per game, for reference.) Can rack up catches and yards just fine with a bad, mid tier, or great QB, as a TE, since TEs tend to be easier targets for any QB. But hard to get a lot of TDs unless your offense is scoring a lot. Kelce with Mahomes and Gronk with Brady are on fairly even footing there, with Gronk taking an edge still, but a more reasonable one.

IMO Kelce is the greatest receiving TE of all-time. I don't actually think it's close between him and Gonzalez there, as a Chiefs fan. Gonzalez's longevity is insane, but Kelce is a much more talented player. For Kelce and Gronk, it just becomes quibbles of how much do you value blocking and how much do you value health, and I don't think either of those are actually interesting arguments. I like Kelce as the best receiving TE ever, and he strikes a balance between Gronk's peak and Gonzo's stats. Gronk was the most dominant TE at his peak as an overall player, red zone, receiving, blocking, etc. Gonzalez gets the Emmitt Smith award at this point for crazy career stats. Which one is the GOAT then becomes a matter of subjective value of those things. Though if anyone is picking anyone else, I think they're just wrong.