Week 14:Broncos Jets GDT

[thebestever6]

It's week 14 guys and for everyone saying losing or tanking is bad news for the Chemistry of the team I think you'll get your wish this week. In the words of famous J Winston Denver will eat a w.

This is just a good matchup for the Broncos offensively the Jets aren't good at all in the secondary.  Their  D line has some guys but the back end is week. 

The Jets are simply not a good team on the road. So Denver has that going for them.  If the crowd gets loud at all I expect Denver to win. My prediction.

27 17 Broncos.

 

[Broncofan]

I'll always salute those who start the GDT....even if I don't see the same result.  

It's always a potentially winnable game whenever we are at home, but the keys to keeping the streak going....

1.  NYJ Pass D already miles better than last week - how?  Well, simple - they deactivated ILB Darron Lee for being late to team meetings last week vs. KC.  Big deal, you say?  Well, it is...

Without Lee, NYJ's pass D had to choose between containing Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill - and Lee helped with Hunt/Kelce.  Kelce burned the Jets for 3/90/2 against Lee's replacement or Marcus Maye, before they just dedicated their all-rookie S Jamal Adams to Kelce - who shut him down to 1 catch/4 yards after...but that then left the deep balls for Tyreke Hill to dominate for 6/180/2 afterwards.   So, yeah, having Darron Lee back to bolster their run D and pass D and let S Jamal Adams freelance is HUGE for them.   Besides the fact we're nowhere near KC's level of O, their D just took a huge step up.   And while Hill beat the Jets' CB's deep - they are actually very good this year when the guys aren't burners - they bottled up Tampa & CAR's crew very effectively - except for guys with speed to burn (Robbie Anderson, D-Jax, Hill).   That's exactly what we don't have.   

 

2.  NYJ's DE's vs. our T's in pass rush/pass pro, DST sacks/TO's for them -  the other part that's different from playing KC - our T's again get exposed vs. their best D-linemen in Leonard Williams (frightening vs. our RT) and Muhammed Wilkerson vs. Bolles.   KC's T's are just that much better, and of course, while he's back to being a game manager, Alex Smith is miles ahead of where Siemian is right now. The Jets average 2 sacks a game & 1.5 TO's a game - against our QB & OL, seems like  4+ sacks, and 2 TO's are a good bet for NYJ's D.

 

3.  NYJ's QB is miles ahead of ours -  Josh McCown might seem like JAG, but he's actually playing well - as of 2 games ago, he was 7th overall in passer rating when facing pressure, and since then, his passer rating was 118.3 vs. pressure vs. CAR (he faced almost no pressure vs. KC lol, no stats yet).   And that's huge, because if he's limiting his mistakes, not only does he have an emerging WR in Robby Anderson (who I'm sure our No Fly Zone will look to take out), but...

 

4.  NYJ's RB's and TE's are a big mismatch for us...again -  if you haven't followed the Jets, you won't know that Austin Sefarien-Jenkins is having a mini-breakout, after a lot of off-the-field issues with booze in Tampa.   He's actually had 2 TD's overturned by replay (one vs. NE which was absolute BS), 2 by penalty, and yes, 3 TD's dropped - but he's an absolute mismatch monster vs. us.   He's my favorite DFS play, that much of a problem.   Then you add in their 3-headed RB committee of Forte/Powell/rookie McGuire, and they can keep a fresh RB both running the ball (again, no Derek Wolfe, and at best Peko is hobbled, could also be out) and worst, in the flats against our ILB’s in the pass game.

 

5.  As always - our ST's suck -  we're all the way up to 31st out of 32 in DVOA.   Nothing more need be said.

 

6. NYJ are still playing hard -  the Chiefs were up 14-0 - at 4-7, the Jets could have just said, "oh well, let's get 'em next week.  But they didn't just come back, they stormed back hard.  And won again while clearly shorthanded.    With such a young team, they're playing with confidence and momentum (losing to CAR even though they just throttled Cam Newton, too).  And at 5-7 they are actually only 1 game back of a WC spot so have everything to play for.

 

Given all the above, I actually think the Jets have a better shot to win pre-game than the Dolphins.   Being at home, we can always pull a W out, but I'll say 24-13 Jets.   Keep the dream alive!

[thebestever6]

15 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'll always salute those who start the GDT....even if I don't see the same result.  

It's always a potentially winnable game whenever we are at home, but the keys to keeping the streak going....

1.  NYJ Pass D already miles better than last week - how?  Well, simple - they deactivated ILB Darron Lee for being late to team meetings last week vs. KC.  Big deal, you say?  Well, it is...

Without Lee, NYJ's pass D had to choose between containing Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill - and Lee helped with Hunt/Kelce.  Kelce burned the Jets for 3/90/2 against Lee's replacement or Marcus Maye, before they just dedicated their all-rookie S Jamal Adams to Kelce - who shut him down to 1 catch/4 yards after...but that then left the deep balls for Tyreke Hill to dominate for 6/180/2 afterwards.   So, yeah, having Darron Lee back to bolster their run D and pass D and let S Jamal Adams freelance is HUGE for them.   Besides the fact we're nowhere near KC's level of O, their D just took a huge step up.   And while Hill beat the Jets' CB's deep - they are actually very good this year when the guys aren't burners - they bottled up Tampa & CAR's crew very effectively - except for guys with speed to burn (Robbie Anderson, D-Jax, Hill).   That's exactly what we don't have.   

 

2.  NYJ's DE's vs. our T's in pass rush/pass pro, DST sacks/TO's for them -  the other part that's different from playing KC - our T's again get exposed vs. their best D-linemen in Leonard Williams (frightening vs. our RT) and Muhammed Wilkerson vs. Bolles.   KC's T's are just that much better, and of course, while he's back to being a game manager, Alex Smith is miles ahead of where Siemian is right now. The Jets average 2 sacks a game & 1.5 TO's a game - against our QB & OL, seems like  4+ sacks, and 2 TO's are a good bet for NYJ's D.

 

3.  NYJ's QB is miles ahead of ours -  Josh McCown might seem like JAG, but he's actually playing well - as of 2 games ago, he was 7th overall in passer rating when facing pressure, and since then, his passer rating was 118.3 vs. pressure vs. CAR (he faced almost no pressure vs. KC lol, no stats yet).   And that's huge, because if he's limiting his mistakes, not only does he have an emerging WR in Robby Anderson (who I'm sure our No Fly Zone will look to take out), but...

 

4.  NYJ's RB's and TE's are a big mismatch for us...again -  if you haven't followed the Jets, you won't know that Austin Sefarien-Jenkins is having a mini-breakout, after a lot of off-the-field issues with booze in Tampa.   He's actually had 2 TD's overturned by replay (one vs. NE which was absolute BS), 2 by penalty, and yes, 3 TD's dropped - but he's an absolute mismatch monster vs. us.   He's my favorite DFS play, that much of a problem.   Then you add in their 3-headed RB committee of Forte/Powell/rookie McGuire, and they can keep a fresh RB both running the ball (again, no Derek Wolfe, and at best Peko is hobbled, could also be out) and worst, in the flats against our RB's.

 

5.  As always - our ST's suck -  we're all the way up to 31st out of 32 in DVOA.   Nothing more need be said.

 

6. NYJ are still playing hard -  the Chiefs were up 14-0 - at 3-7, the Jets could have just said, "oh well, let's get 'em next week.  But they didn't just come back, they stormed back hard.  And won again while clearly shorthanded.    With such a young team, they're playing with confidence and momentum (losing to CAR even though they just throttled Cam Newton, too).

 

Given all the above, I actually think the Jets have a better shot to win pre-game than the Dolphins.   Being at home, we can always pull a W out, but I'll say 24-13 Jets.   Keep the dream alive!

I just want you to look up the jets schedule and see how  bad they are on the road it is truly jeckle and Hyde. 

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I just want you to look up the jets schedule and see how  bad they are on the road it is truly jeckle and Hyde. 

They gave away a 14 pt lead to Mia with 10 mins to go.  They actually probably win the Pats game if the ASJ TD isn’t called back (huge swing).   They played Tampa in a rainstorm.   And the thing is they all kept it to 1 score against teams who are miles ahead of us.   As a young team they were awful first 2 weeks.   Part of learning with so many young guys starting.  They aren’t that team anymore. 

And remember the last road team to be winless before playing us - Cin.  

HFA is the only thing that makes this a winnable game.  But I’m more confident of keeping the streak than I was @MIA.   So take it FWIW.  

[jsthomp2007]

Jets win by a blocked punt that is recovered by the Broncos for a safety. 

[Broncofan]

Vegas opens the line with NYJ as 1 pt favorites.   Given the normal 3-pt HFA, looks like they are finally wising up to our struggles.  Not only are we on a 8-game losing streak, we're 0-8 ATS - let's keep that going this week, please.

[bMiller031]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Vegas opens the line with NYJ as 1 pt favorites.   Given the normal 3-pt HFA, looks like they are finally wising up to our struggles.  Not only are we on a 8-game losing streak, we're 0-8 ATS - let's keep that going this week, please.

Any wise bettor pounds the NYJ(-1) line. 

[rdelaney89]

On 12/5/2017 at 2:17 PM, thebestever6 said:

I just want you to look up the jets schedule and see how  bad they are on the road it is truly jeckle and Hyde. 

Fitz was facing his former team, I think that was the added juice that hurt us in that game more than the play of both teams and I don't think the Jets are the same team as they were in weeks 1 & 2 this year. The Jets are 5-7 with 3 games they blew in the 4th quarter, this team could just as easily be 8-4. @Broncofan is spot on. Our only real concern would be if Von Miller is allowed to pin his ears back. Our team has been in close every single game this season except for the Oakland game.

[Broncofan]

On ‎2017‎-‎12‎-‎07 at 12:32 PM, rdelaney89 said:

Fitz was facing his former team, I think that was the added juice that hurt us in that game more than the play of both teams and I don't think the Jets are the same team as they were in weeks 1 & 2 this year. The Jets are 5-7 with 3 games they blew in the 4th quarter, this team could just as easily be 8-4. @Broncofan is spot on. Our only real concern would be if Von Miller is allowed to pin his ears back. Our team has been in close every single game this season except for the Oakland game.

Any game at Mile High is always a tough road win...but we've been up to the task as of late.  This news will help us in trying to keep the streak to 9 straight L's:

Back to a vulnerable RG/RT combo, no interior run D if Peko is out & Wolfe on IR, no interior pass rush, and our RB/TE coverage is already suspect with bad LB play.   Hopefully it's enough to give the Jets the W.  

[AnAngryAmerican]

On 12/6/2017 at 7:39 AM, Broncofan said:

Vegas opens the line with NYJ as 1 pt favorites.   Given the normal 3-pt HFA, looks like they are finally wising up to our struggles.  Not only are we on a 8-game losing streak, we're 0-8 ATS - let's keep that going this week, please.

Could you imagine back in August how we would have reacted had we known that we'd be home dogs against the Jets?

Wow this team has fallen a long, long way. 

[mltsandwich]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Back to a vulnerable RG/RT combo, no interior run D if Peko is out & Wolfe on IR, no interior pass rush, and our RB/TE coverage is already suspect with bad LB play.   Hopefully it's enough to give the Jets the W.  

And Sanders is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

[paul-mac]

Anyone that’s even kind of an injury doubt should be shut down tbh. Allows them to ensure they don’t make it worse and gives us a look at some younger guys. 

[thebestever6]

22 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Anyone that’s even kind of an injury doubt should be shut down tbh. Allows them to ensure they don’t make it worse and gives us a look at some younger guys. 

Sanders is gonna go. I'm gonna be honest I think Denver is the better team. But we alwaya got a chance to be out coached so that's going strong for us.

I think the key to the game will be we have to start out slow and the Jets have to start out fast.

[jolly red giant]

The one thing I would like to see against the Jets is McGovern showing learning and progress from last week - showing the prospect that he could be a competent RG that would facilitate moving Leary back to LG and getting rid of Garcia.

[PFM18]

Hey guys,

Apologies for not being around these last few weeks. Had a lot going on which has meant haven't been able to come on here but still be keeping up with football of course.

First thing to say is can't believe how bad our season has been. I did say at the start of the season that I expected a playoff push but we're far from that. None of our QB's have been good enough in my opinion and we need to look at drafting one in the offseason.

On to today's game at home to the Jets. Hoping we can actually put in a decent performance today before maybe the most pointless TNF game in history but personally for me will be a tough one to watch against the Colts.