Trey Lance Traded to Cowboys

[TVScout]

12 hours ago, Northland said:

I'm trying to figure out what a 4th rounder is worth.

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

[quiller]

Totally amazed.  Guess need to adjust my final 53.   I can understand it slightly.  Coop has huge limitations.  This means that Grier is gone also.   A little spendy option though 5 M next season.  He is a better option though running our “new” O over Coop.  Plays a style closer to Dak

[The_Slamman]

1 hour ago, NoFlyZone said:

The fun thing about this is that the reactions to it showcase how hilariously moronic people in sports are. Seriously, I can barely even bring myself to engage these days because people are so unabashedly stupid.

Agreed.  Can you believe there still people out there who defend paying Dak elite money only for Dak to lead the league in INTs while having Cooper Rush (at about 1/40th the cost) post a better record while doing it against better competition?  Yeah, it’s hard to engage with those people.  
 

I think we can be cautiously hopeful that giving Lance time to develop could yield dividends.  Our worst case scenario is that his base salary over the next years is certainly in line with going rate for other back up QBs.  Our best case scenario is McCarthy works some magic with him and he develops into a legit starter.  He’s got the physical tools but definitely needs to improve accuracy and mental processing.  

[Northland]

5 hours ago, TVScout said:

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Nice find.  Thanks.  To take it a step further, the best positional odds at drafting a consistent starter in the fourth round are DL at 37%.  What is the probability or likelihood of any of these 4th round picks getting a second contract from the clubs that drafted them?  It's probably very low.  So is spending a 4th round pick on a young developmental QB too much to pay? I'll take the risk.

[Dallas94Ware]

Yes!!! YES YES YES YES!!!

You guys may remember me months ago, following no pick of Willis, Levis or Hooker in the last two drafts, calling for this trade specifically, and if not this one, one similar to it. Some called it stupid. Some loved the idea. Bottom line? It actually freaking happened!!!

I'm pumped!

I love Dak. I think he gets way to much flak for the shortcomings of the TEAM (staff included). But he is, without a doubt, severely overpaid for the on field product, including post season success, or rather, the lack of it. And he is only going to want more money. And with Parsons, Lamb, and too many others to name, all needing a payday...handing out another 300 million to a passer who hasn't brought this team postseason success, hasnt won or had a full season run for an MVP, and has both hit that dreaded 30 mark and had two severe injuries in three seasons, is simply bad business.

Trey may not ever be anything good. But all, literally all, of the special traits you'd want in a QB are there to build upon. Size, throw velocity, release speed, mobility and run ability, escapability, and pocket presence. The biggest hurdle for him is the speed of the pro game and the mental aspects. If he can't overcome them, so be it. If he does, you likely have something very special. And for a fourth round pick, the gamble is more worth it than anything we could have picked with that fourth rounder. 

If Treys light goes on in practice, or Dak wants more than is reasonable, then Dak can walk and Trey can have his chance. If it works, fifth year option saves this team from a big payout too soon. If it doesn't, then in 2025 you're probably looking at a top 10 pick...in a draft class likely to feature Arch Manning.

Works for me.

[Dallas94Ware]

10 hours ago, Tony7188 said:

Nope. I think that 4th rounder is a little too rich for Lance, who’s proven nothing in the NFL. Cowboys must’ve been in a bidding war with other teams.

A puzzling trade, but worth it for Lance’s talent. He has another year to sit and learn.

Has any fourth round selection used in the draft, ever been used on a player who has proven anything in the NFL?

Surely not.

At least with this trade, Dallas secures a player who was talented enough to be selected third overall, from a team that is notoriously coached well, has a tendency to draft well, and still would have been drafted in that top 5 area even if it wasn't by the Niners.

He is only 23, the age many fourth round rookies are to begin with. He has had some flashes of brilliant play as well, in his limited time on field. And at the worst, he provides an excellent platform of ability upon which to build the mental aspects on top of.

Also. Very few 4th round picks stick around past year three. And finding a talent of Lances athletic ability and potential with a 4th round pick, especially at his position, is next to impossible. Those guys with size, speed, arm talent, throw speed, filled with this much potential, almost always go top 5. 

[Dallas94Ware]

19 hours ago, Herodreamer79 said:

Why did Lance fail in SF?

a couple of unfortunate injuries, too much bay area love-festing for Jimmy Garoppolo, Bay Area Kaepernick PTSD, and Brock Purdy.

Kyle Shanahan has dreamed of kirk cousins since he got to the 49ers and Shanny found his Kirk Cousins in Brock Purdy. 

Trey Lance has 102 NFL passing attempts. He never got a shot. 

Probably the most accurate post in this thread (besides mine, of course )

Fact is, the potential is there for Lance. No one expected him to have a freak accident on field and break his ankle when he was finally ready to start - and then no one certainly expected Brock Purdy to step in and literally play the same style of passer as Brady (quick high Efficiency passes, smart decisions, accurately dropping the ball to his guys and letting them work). It is literally the ideal situation for a Shannahan offense, be it Kyle's or Mike's.

Speaking of Mike. Lance looked every bit like a John Elway kind of QB. Strong, fast, great arm, athletic. But the better fit for that high speed, quick read, quick throw, run heavy system is by far, Purdy. Lance was out the door before Purdy led SF past this very team in the playoffs. Too good of a fit.

Lance should have had a chance earlier. But, Garoppolos high efficiency quick drop passing, like Purdys, was too effective to let go of and risk a sub 500 year with a young passer who has more raw ability than current ability. 

The fit was just wrong to begin with. I know they saw the potential, as most teams did. But that offense is sculpted perfectly for a guy like Purdy. Once he showed he was no Mr Irrelevant, it was all over for Lance 

[TVScout]

Everybody should remember he has been in the League for only 2 seasons. How many QBs show greatness in that short period of time? Montana took 3 years. Troy took 4. 

[JohnChimpo]

Low risk, high reward. I like it.

[Rtnldave]

Grier made a case for himself tonight.

[NoFlyZone]

10 hours ago, The_Slamman said:

Agreed.  Can you believe there still people out there who defend paying Dak elite money only for Dak to lead the league in INTs while having Cooper Rush (at about 1/40th the cost) post a better record while doing it against better competition?  Yeah, it’s hard to engage with those people.  
 

I think we can be cautiously hopeful that giving Lance time to develop could yield dividends.  Our worst case scenario is that his base salary over the next years is certainly in line with going rate for other back up QBs.  Our best case scenario is McCarthy works some magic with him and he develops into a legit starter.  He’s got the physical tools but definitely needs to improve accuracy and mental processing.  

Nah, this is what I’m talking about. People would rather be hateful rather than rational. It’s some sad ****. But hey, whatever.

Edited August 27, 2023 by NoFlyZone

[SodeeWater_Cheezburger]

This was a smart move by Dallas.  Relatively low risk with a potential reward that could be sky high.  If he doesn't pan out, it hasn't cost you much.  If nothing else, he can keep Dak from holding the team hostage in a couple years.  That alone, is worth a 4th round pick.

[plan9misfit]

17 hours ago, TVScout said:

Everybody should remember he has been in the League for only 2 seasons. How many QBs show greatness in that short period of time? Montana took 3 years. Troy took 4. 

Montana and Aikman also had FAR more collegiate experience than Lance, which helped their maturation to the NFL game. Lance has barely played football, so his learning curve is going to be much steeper, which won’t help him.

[plan9misfit]

14 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

Nah, this is what I’m talking about. People would rather be hateful rather than rational. It’s some sad ****. But hey, whatever.

You know that he was mocking you, right?

[DaBoys]

Was not a fan of Lance the prospect. His career thus far has gone exactly how I would expect it too given his profile coming out. He is 6’4” 225 pounds with above average athleticism for the position and a big strong arm. I can see why some would think he could be coached up. There’s no apparent reason a good coach like Daboll couldn’t turn him into a guy with a Daniel Jones floor and a Josh Allen ceiling. Worth a shot for a 4th. Not 3rd overall and Haul. 

What I love most about the trade is that it at least shows that they acknowledge an issue or future issue at the QB1 position.

Mind you, Cooper Rush is 5-1 in relief of Dak, and the 1 loss was a nail biter to the eventual NFC Champs. This trade is not a last ditch effort to get better at the backup QB spot like some Dak fans would want you to believe. This isn’t about fixing QB2. We have control over Lance for the next 3 seasons(if we pick up his option). He’ll be 25 years old at that time. Just two years older than Dak was his rookie year. Dak will be 32 and asking for $60M a year or more. If Lance can develop into a serviceable QB over the next two seasons we could free up at lot of money. If not, oh well. 

Not the QB I would have chose, but it does warm my heart that they are trying in their own little Dallas Cowboy way.