Will the First Human to Land on Mars Make it Back to Earth?

[MKnight82]

We did it with the first lunar landing but Mars is another story. 

[vike daddy]

Mars is all about colonization, so perhaps not.

[rob_shadows]

No and they'll be well aware that it's very probable they won't return but will do it anyway for a shot at being in the history books.

Edited September 8, 2023 by rob_shadows

[ET80]

Doubt it. They die on the red planet… and I think they’re good with that.

[MikeT14]

11 hours ago, vike daddy said:

Mars is all about colonization, so perhaps not.

That's more or less how I feel. I think it's (knowingly going in) a one way trip.

[D82]

10 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

That's more or less how I feel. I think it's (knowingly going in) a one way trip.

I mean Earth's a **** show. I wouldn't mind spending my last days out in space on a foreign planet. 

[mission27]

100% they will tbh

[ET80]

On 9/8/2023 at 7:10 AM, ET80 said:

Doubt it. They die on the red planet… and I think they’re good with that.

And - if we’re being honest - it’s maybe the first *100* not just person number 1. 

I have to think, we’ll probably have a bunch of living and dead people on Mars (cumulative… maybe 500?) before we have one person make a return trip to Earth.

[MKnight82]

So here is the list of obstacles astronauts will have to overcome to make a safe return: 

- The trip will likely take 150 to 300 days (one way) depending on the window they decide to use, so no rescue mission will be possible. 

- Obviously stocking up enough food and water (and finding a way to get it all into space) will be a challenge. 

- Long term effects on the body from being in a zero gravity environment for a long time. Muscle and bone density loss, eyesight damage, and cardiovascular issues have all been experienced in the past. 

- Solar and cosmic radiation after leaving the Earth's magnetic shield. This won't be just while they are in space, but Mars doesn't have a magnetic field so the astronauts will literally be pelted with radiation nonstop for several years. 

- The temperature on Mars is highly erratic, it can wildly swing 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the same day.  

- The soil of Mars is mostly toxic to humans. 

- Mars doesn't have air, so parachutes won't work. So you're going to have to make a series of rocket burns on the descent down. Plus you're going to have to have a large burn on the way out to escape Mars gravity. That is a ton of extra fuel you have to bring. 

 

I'm sure there's more but that is pretty daunting already. 

[vike daddy]

6 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Plus you're going to have to have a large burn on the way out to escape Mars gravity. That is a ton of extra fuel you have to bring. 

my father was in aerospace and astronautics during the Apollo missions and beyond.

he said we could have got to the Moon much sooner than 1969, the scientific challenge was bringing the crew back.

[MacReady]

Only if they get help from the cave dwellers currently occupying Mars.

[incognito_man]

On 9/8/2023 at 8:03 PM, mission27 said:

100% they will tbh

This

[mission27]

On 9/10/2023 at 8:24 AM, ET80 said:

And - if we’re being honest - it’s maybe the first *100* not just person number 1. 

I have to think, we’ll probably have a bunch of living and dead people on Mars (cumulative… maybe 500?) before we have one person make a return trip to Earth.

In a world with AI, fusion energy, and widespread commercial space industry I just find this very unlikely tbh 

If we make it to Mars by 2030, I expect Martians will be getting Amazon packages by 2040

[ET80]

4 minutes ago, mission27 said:

In a world with AI, fusion energy, and widespread commercial space industry I just find this very unlikely tbh 

If we make it to Mars by 2030, I expect Martians will be getting Amazon packages by 2040

*Availability* of this technology and *scalability* of this technology are two different benchmarks (not even venturing into a 3rd benchmark, repeatability). AI is the only one that is self-scaling in this respect, everything else is theoretically capped due to scarcity. 

I DO agree that it’s roughly a 10 year window from proof of concept to general availability/general use, but those first few years are going to be tough. We have to prep as if the first several hundred are dead people walking… and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

*Availability* of this technology and *scalability* of this technology are two different benchmarks (not even venturing into a 3rd benchmark, repeatability). AI is the only one that is self-scaling in this respect, everything else is theoretically capped due to scarcity. 

I DO agree that it’s roughly a 10 year window from proof of concept to general availability/general use, but those first few years are going to be tough. We have to prep as if the first several hundred are dead people walking… and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

This is not at all how our industry works. There is a 100% chance that the first humans to land in Mars will be part of a mission in which the #1 SMA goal is a successful return to Earth.