The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, ripsean21 said:

Let’s be real. When QB goes one and maybe one pans out. When they go 123 the truth is you’re lucky if even one pan out. The truth is they are all being elevated!!! And we are being sold such a lie that because we’re 2 we have too take one because there’s 3 there. No that’s a lie!!! That isn’t scouting and ranking that’s just saying oh this guy has this and that and this guy has this and that. But if you truely believe there are 3 qb’s as the best 5 maybe even 10 best players especially in this draft you’re lying to yourself. Personally I wish we would have won a meaningless game as people call them so we could be out of this QB place and in range to steal a top flight player while 2 of the top 3 teams more then likely botch their selection going QB

Ugh, really?

I absolutely love that for the 1st time since 2012 we are seriously considering taking a QB with a top 5 pick, this time the 2nd pick.

All 3 guys are worthy of top 10 picks in about every draft that I can think of. Are they being elevated some bc they're QBs sure! But that happens in every single draft.

And honestly, if they're being elevated it isn't by much. The year that Jayden Daniels just had was one of the greatest college football QB seasons in the history of college football. In any draft, he's going to be projected to go top 5 and in most, he would be projected to go #1 if not for Caleb Williams having earned the #1 spot over the last 3 years of him being consistently good to great.

Maye has all the traits an NFL team is looking for. His production was inconsistent this year which might cost him the #2 spot in the draft but in just about every draft he's at worst a top 10 pick and a top 5 pick in most, including this year.

The only prospects who are on their level in this draft are Harrison & Bowers.

Edited February 23 by turtle28

[e16bball]

24 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

Stroud, Lawrence, Burrow,Herbert,, Murray, D Jones ( Ugh ) Haskins ( double ugh ) I should qualify Maye and Daniels. The are worthy maybe in the 20-25 range .

Someone should hire you out of retirement, my friend! Your hit rate is much higher than mine (or the NFL’s, for that matter).

It’s a little hard for me to figure how you’d be in on Kyler Murray but not Jayden Daniels, and in on Daniel Jones but not Drake Maye. But we all have our own methods.

[MikeT14]

13 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Someone should hire you out of retirement, my friend! Your hit rate is much higher than mine (or the NFL’s, for that matter).

It’s a little hard for me to figure how you’d be in on Kyler Murray but not Jayden Daniels, and in on Daniel Jones but not Drake Maye. But we all have our own methods.

That's called learning from your mistakes  

[MikeT14]

46 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

Stroud, Lawrence, Burrow,Herbert,, Murray, D Jones ( Ugh ) Haskins ( double ugh ) I should qualify Maye and Daniels. The are worthy maybe in the 20-25 range .

Also curious about Fields, Lance, Love and Tua

[RSkinGM]

4 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Also curious about Fields, Lance, Love and Tua

Tua- figured too small, gonna get hurt. Fields and Lance- I prefer the more pocket passer generally. Love . He was second round where he belonged. 

[Slappy Mc]

32 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

All 3 guys are worthy of top 10 picks in about every draft that I can think of. Are they being elevated some bc they're QBs sure! But that happens in every single draft.

This is the biggest issue for me. Down playing the amount of elevation based off them "being QBs". I'm not saying that these kids won't or don't have the potential to be successful, but they are the flavor of this year. Every year people fall in love with the QB class like it is the best thing since sliced bread. Again I am no talent evaluator, clearly lol, but I firmly believe in taking the best talent and you won't convince me that any QB, not named Caleb Williams, is better than MHJr, Brock Bowers or Joe Alt. I would go further adding others like Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga and Dallas Turner, but they are a little closer to the talent level.

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, ripsean21 said:

Let’s be real. When QB goes one and maybe one pans out. When they go 123 the truth is you’re lucky if even one pan out. The truth is they are all being elevated!!! And we are being sold such a lie that because we’re 2 we have too take one because there’s 3 there. No that’s a lie!!! That isn’t scouting and ranking that’s just saying oh this guy has this and that and this guy has this and that. But if you truely believe there are 3 qb’s as the best 5 maybe even 10 best players especially in this draft you’re lying to yourself. Personally I wish we would have won a meaningless game as people call them so we could be out of this QB place and in range to steal a top flight player while 2 of the top 3 teams more then likely botch their selection going QB

The way to define “best player” always involves positional value. Especially at the top of the draft. You know this as well as I do — otherwise guys like Quenton Nelson and Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson would have been runaway #1 picks. And guys like Tyler Linderbaum and Dalton Kincaid and Jack Campbell wouldn’t fall into the 20s (or thereabouts). 

But they do, and that’s because teams have (correctly) determined that elite players at some positions are more scarce, have more impact on winning, and get paid more on the FA market. QBs, DEs, and LTs get pushed up the board, and TEs, LBs, IOLs, and safeties get pushed down. It’s not just about picking the highest graded player on the board — context be damned. None of this is new, and it’s all sensible. 

All of which I know you know, especially because you’re mentioning Joe Alt in the same discussions as Marvin Harrison, and he isn’t close to the same level of prospect on a grading scale. The only reason Joe Alt would ever get taken at #2 is because of some combination of positional value and team need. 

And no, I don’t think the NFL does the positional value stuff perfectly. I think OTs are probably overvalued in today’s game, maybe even EDGEs as well (although a truly elite EDGE is still a total game changer, it’s the next tier down and below that have been neutralized). And I think that TEs and Cs are probably undervalued at this point. But the one place I absolutely do agree with the NFL is QB. If you were to measure positional value on a scale of 1-10, with QB being a 10 — I don’t think any other position could be higher than about a 4. 
 

There’s a good non-Chase Young example that I actually just reminded myself of. Colts took Quenton Nelson at 6 in 2018. Incredible player. 4x All-Pro, 6x Pro Bowler. He’s slowing down already (another reason to prioritize QB) but he’s been an absolute stud for them. Next pick? QB Josh Allen. The Colts haven’t won a single playoff game since 2018, and they have basically a .500 record since drafting Nelson. They’ve now started a different Week One QB in 6 consecutive seasons. Josh Allen spends every January playing against Patrick Mahomes and collecting MVP votes — Quenton Nelson spends his Januarys fishing or playing video games or being in the Pro Bowl.

 

The point is, you force the QBs up the board because if you hit, it changes your franchise’s entire trajectory. If Caleb Daniels or Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels hits as a star QB in our uniform, it will be the most important draft pick made by this franchise in 87 years. That’s not an exaggeration. If we hit on Harrison or Bowers or Alt at that pick? Cool. Fun to have a great player, I guess. But we’ve had great players, and just like them, none of it will matter until we find a QB. Just like Quentin Nelson hasn’t mattered for the Colts and Myles Garrett hasn’t mattered for the Browns and Chase Young didn’t matter for us.

[RSkinGM]

14 minutes ago, e16bball said:

The way to define “best player” always involves positional value. Especially at the top of the draft. You know this as well as I do — otherwise guys like Quenton Nelson and Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson would have been runaway #1 picks. And guys like Tyler Linderbaum and Dalton Kincaid and Jack Campbell wouldn’t fall into the 20s (or thereabouts). 

But they do, and that’s because teams have (correctly) determined that elite players at some positions are more scarce, have more impact on winning, and get paid more on the FA market. QBs, DEs, and LTs get pushed up the board, and TEs, LBs, IOLs, and safeties get pushed down. It’s not just about picking the highest graded player on the board — context be damned. None of this is new, and it’s all sensible. 

All of which I know you know, especially because you’re mentioning Joe Alt in the same discussions as Marvin Harrison, and he isn’t close to the same level of prospect on a grading scale. The only reason Joe Alt would ever get taken at #2 is because of some combination of positional value and team need. 

And no, I don’t think the NFL does the positional value stuff perfectly. I think OTs are probably overvalued in today’s game, maybe even EDGEs as well (although a truly elite EDGE is still a total game changer, it’s the next tier down and below that have been neutralized). And I think that TEs and Cs are probably undervalued at this point. But the one place I absolutely do agree with the NFL is QB. If you were to measure positional value on a scale of 1-10, with QB being a 10 — I don’t think any other position could be higher than about a 4. 
 

There’s a good non-Chase Young example that I actually just reminded myself of. Colts took Quenton Nelson at 6 in 2018. Incredible player. 4x All-Pro, 6x Pro Bowler. He’s slowing down already (another reason to prioritize QB) but he’s been an absolute stud for them. Next pick? QB Josh Allen. The Colts haven’t won a single playoff game since 2018, and they have basically a .500 record since drafting Nelson. They’ve now started a different Week One QB in 6 consecutive seasons. Josh Allen spends every January playing against Patrick Mahomes and collecting MVP votes — Quenton Nelson spends his Januarys fishing or playing video games or being in the Pro Bowl.

 

The point is, you force the QBs up the board because if you hit, it changes your franchise’s entire trajectory. If Caleb Daniels or Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels hits as a star QB in our uniform, it will be the most important draft pick made by this franchise in 87 years. That’s not an exaggeration. If we hit on Harrison or Bowers or Alt at that pick? Cool. Fun to have a great player, I guess. But we’ve had great players, and just like them, none of it will matter until we find a QB. Just like Quentin Nelson hasn’t mattered for the Colts and Myles Garrett hasn’t mattered for the Browns and Chase Young didn’t matter for us.

Can't argue with this one. That's the way it works. Good write up . That's why I HATED taking C Y at #2 !

[MKnight82]

5 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

Can't argue with this one. That's the way it works. Good write up . That's why I HATED taking C Y at #2 !

Who were they going to take then? They had just taken Haskins the year before. 

[RSkinGM]

6 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Who were they going to take then? They had just taken Haskins the year before. 

I was trading down but I don't think we could find any interest . So I guess we were essentially stuck with him .

[MKnight82]

3 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

I was trading down but I don't think we could find any interest . So I guess we were essentially stuck with him .

Ya that pick looks bad with the benefit of hindsight. But at the time I think they had to take Chase Young. 

[e16bball]

44 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

Again I am no talent evaluator, clearly lol, but I firmly believe in taking the best talent and you won't convince me that any QB, not named Caleb Williams, is better than MHJr, Brock Bowers or Joe Alt. I would go further adding others like Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga and Dallas Turner, but they are a little closer to the talent level.

But the thing is, if we spent as much time picking those guys apart as we do the QBs, I think you’d start to get concerned about their flaws too.

Joe Alt has a comparatively weak anchor in pass pro, and he gets beaten up with speed to power at times. Louisville destroyed him with it. His feet are good for his size, but it’s not special. He’s just okay at getting downfield to the second level and at kicking out and making blocks on the perimeter. Pad level is always high, he doesn’t appear to be particularly flexible in the lower body. And he’s not particularly explosive. To me, and I’ve said since I wanted to draft him back in November when we were sitting at 10 or so, his most likely projection is as a very-good-not-great long-term starting LT, in the mold of Taylor Lewan, Taylor Decker, Kolton Miller, etc.

Fashanu’s run blocking is below-average, which makes Terron Armstead his absolute ceiling unless he revolutionizes his skillset and attitude.

Dallas Turner is undersized for a 4-3 DE, sort of a half-hearted run defender, and you could easily make the case that he’s never even been the best EDGE on his own team. 

Fuaga has shortish arms and he has a bad habit of oversetting, which wouldn’t be such a problem if he had better recovery ability. But he’s upper-body heavy and so he has a little bit of that classic RT tendency to lurch when he tries to change directions.

Bowers is supposed to be an in-line TE, but his listed size (6’4, 240 pounds) is bottom-end. And it might be generous. TEs traditionally have serious injury issues, and he’s coming off a season where he basically hobbled through the second half.

And while admittedly I love all three of the top WRs, Odunze is a lazy route runner, Nabers has always gotten by more with pure burst than actual nuance or willingness to be physical, and Harrison had a surprisingly high drop rate. 
 

Anyway, the point is that all those guys are still good prospects, even with those shortcomings. There are very, very few flawless prospects in any draft. I think we have a tendency to say “oh, this guy is an amazing WR prospect” or “one of the best TEs in years” or “looks like a sure thing future LT” and just accept them as that without really digging into their flaws — whereas we’re digesting and dissecting every bad throw these QBs made over the course of years. No one looks perfect when you analyze them that closely — you can usually see the reasons why they might fail, and that’s without knowing anything about the behind the scenes stuff that’s often the biggest reason they fail. 

The thing is, some of those guys you named are also going to fail or be mediocre. There’s risk in all of them, including (and probably especially) in the QBs. The difference is that the potential reward with the QBs is exponentially higher than the potential reward with any of the other guys you could take.

[RSkinGM]

2 minutes ago, e16bball said:

But the thing is, if we spent as much time picking those guys apart as we do the QBs, I think you’d start to get concerned about their flaws too.

Joe Alt has a comparatively weak anchor in pass pro, and he gets beaten up with speed to power at times. Louisville destroyed him with it. His feet are good for his size, but it’s not special. He’s just okay at getting downfield to the second level and at kicking out and making blocks on the perimeter. Pad level is always high, he doesn’t appear to be particularly flexible in the lower body. And he’s not particularly explosive. To me, and I’ve said since I wanted to draft him back in November when we were sitting at 10 or so, his most likely projection is as a very-good-not-great long-term starting LT, in the mold of Taylor Lewan, Taylor Decker, Kolton Miller, etc.

Fashanu’s run blocking is below-average, which makes Terron Armstead his absolute ceiling unless he revolutionizes his skillset and attitude.

Dallas Turner is undersized for a 4-3 DE, sort of a half-hearted run defender, and you could easily make the case that he’s never even been the best EDGE on his own team. 

Fuaga has shortish arms and he has a bad habit of oversetting, which wouldn’t be such a problem if he had better recovery ability. But he’s upper-body heavy and so he has a little bit of that classic RT tendency to lurch when he tries to change directions.

Bowers is supposed to be an in-line TE, but his listed size (6’4, 240 pounds) is bottom-end. And it might be generous. TEs traditionally have serious injury issues, and he’s coming off a season where he basically hobbled through the second half.

And while admittedly I love all three of the top WRs, Odunze is a lazy route runner, Nabers has always gotten by more with pure burst than actual nuance or willingness to be physical, and Harrison had a surprisingly high drop rate. 
 

Anyway, the point is that all those guys are still good prospects, even with those shortcomings. There are very, very few flawless prospects in any draft. I think we have a tendency to say “oh, this guy is an amazing WR prospect” or “one of the best TEs in years” or “looks like a sure thing future LT” and just accept them as that without really digging into their flaws — whereas we’re digesting and dissecting every bad throw these QBs made over the course of years. No one looks perfect when you analyze them that closely — you can usually see the reasons why they might fail, and that’s without knowing anything about the behind the scenes stuff that’s often the biggest reason they fail. 

The thing is, some of those guys you named are also going to fail or be mediocre. There’s risk in all of them, including (and probably especially) in the QBs. The difference is that the potential reward with the QBs is exponentially higher than the potential reward with any of the other guys you could take.

[offbyone]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

The way to define “best player” always involves positional value. Especially at the top of the draft. You know this as well as I do — otherwise guys like Quenton Nelson and Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson would have been runaway #1 picks. And guys like Tyler Linderbaum and Dalton Kincaid and Jack Campbell wouldn’t fall into the 20s (or thereabouts). 

But they do, and that’s because teams have (correctly) determined that elite players at some positions are more scarce, have more impact on winning, and get paid more on the FA market. QBs, DEs, and LTs get pushed up the board, and TEs, LBs, IOLs, and safeties get pushed down. It’s not just about picking the highest graded player on the board — context be damned. None of this is new, and it’s all sensible. 

All of which I know you know, especially because you’re mentioning Joe Alt in the same discussions as Marvin Harrison, and he isn’t close to the same level of prospect on a grading scale. The only reason Joe Alt would ever get taken at #2 is because of some combination of positional value and team need. 

And no, I don’t think the NFL does the positional value stuff perfectly. I think OTs are probably overvalued in today’s game, maybe even EDGEs as well (although a truly elite EDGE is still a total game changer, it’s the next tier down and below that have been neutralized). And I think that TEs and Cs are probably undervalued at this point. But the one place I absolutely do agree with the NFL is QB. If you were to measure positional value on a scale of 1-10, with QB being a 10 — I don’t think any other position could be higher than about a 4. 
 

There’s a good non-Chase Young example that I actually just reminded myself of. Colts took Quenton Nelson at 6 in 2018. Incredible player. 4x All-Pro, 6x Pro Bowler. He’s slowing down already (another reason to prioritize QB) but he’s been an absolute stud for them. Next pick? QB Josh Allen. The Colts haven’t won a single playoff game since 2018, and they have basically a .500 record since drafting Nelson. They’ve now started a different Week One QB in 6 consecutive seasons. Josh Allen spends every January playing against Patrick Mahomes and collecting MVP votes — Quenton Nelson spends his Januarys fishing or playing video games or being in the Pro Bowl.

 

The point is, you force the QBs up the board because if you hit, it changes your franchise’s entire trajectory. If Caleb Daniels or Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels hits as a star QB in our uniform, it will be the most important draft pick made by this franchise in 87 years. That’s not an exaggeration. If we hit on Harrison or Bowers or Alt at that pick? Cool. Fun to have a great player, I guess. But we’ve had great players, and just like them, none of it will matter until we find a QB. Just like Quentin Nelson hasn’t mattered for the Colts and Myles Garrett hasn’t mattered for the Browns and Chase Young didn’t matter for us.

+1 This is well said. 

I also think it extends beyond positional value.  Teams draft for fit too and they should.  Don't draft a nose tackle if you have no intent to play a 3-4.  We shouldn't pretend that all these factors, positional value, fit, need etc doesn't matter.

This is partly why I am all about either taking a qb at #2 or trading down for a haul.  I don't think I would take a non-qb with #2.

By the way, in terms of taking a non-qb can't miss player- a MHJ anecdote I thought of.  In a dream world he is as impactful as Calvin Johnson.  During the majority of Calvin Johnson's career and certainly through his rookie contract, Detroit was a garbage team that won nothing despite his production.  Megatron's has a legacy of stats and highlight film, but not winning.  Of course Mayhew and Newmark was there for all that garbage.  

[Slappy Mc]

23 minutes ago, e16bball said:

The point is, you force the QBs up the board because if you hit, it changes your franchise’s entire trajectory. If Caleb Daniels or Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels hits as a star QB in our uniform, it will be the most important draft pick made by this franchise in 87 years. That’s not an exaggeration. If we hit on Harrison or Bowers or Alt at that pick? Cool. Fun to have a great player, I guess. But we’ve had great players, and just like them, none of it will matter until we find a QB. Just like Quentin Nelson hasn’t mattered for the Colts and Myles Garrett hasn’t mattered for the Browns and Chase Young didn’t matter for us.

Who did we win our SBs with? Was it one star QB and a bunch of nobodies? 

I wholeheartedly disagree with this entire take. Josh Allen is a star QB, how many SBs has he won? What about Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyle Murray, Deshaun Watson?

This roster is not a QB away from a SB. We need to stop acting that way and treat this as the situation it is. We have a terrible roster. We need new starters at QB, RB, TE, LT, LG, C, RT, LDE, RDE, MLB, CB1, CB2, SS. This team needs a lot of work. So getting really good to great football players at those positions should be the goal. 

You know what helped Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy and  Lamar Jackson be successful? Having a solid team around them and a coach who knew how to take care of a young QB. 

I know I'm a downer because I'm not that high on this QB class, but we need to see this team for what it actually is. We won't be competing for a championship or even a playoff spot next year. We have a lot of holes all around our roster and getting quality players or "stars" at those positions is absolutely what we need to do. If the QBs end up being that, then great, but we have to be as sure as we can and have the right plan for the player already in place.