The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[MKnight82]

17 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

You mean the team that signed a young first-time HC and paired him with a rookie QB and an up and coming OC? 

Tell me again, what were your feelings on hiring Dan Quinn as head coach?

There's a difference between comparing Dan Quinn to what else was available vs Dan Quinn vs what we had before. Dan Quinn is an upgrade to what we had before. Dan Quinn was not a good hire compared to what else was available. 

[Slappy Mc]

5 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

There's a difference between comparing Dan Quinn to what else was available vs Dan Quinn vs what we had before. Dan Quinn is an upgrade to what we had before. Dan Quinn was not a good hire compared to what else was available. 

Not even two weeks later, MKnight is off the #FireDanQuinn train. 

6 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I disagree. I think the new coaching staff will significantly improve the performance of the players currently on the roster. We have talent on the roster that was put in a really bad position schematically, particularly on defense. Add to that 5 top 100 pick incoming rookies, one of which is likely a QB, some upgrades in free agency and I think the roster will be highly competitive. 

Again, we both know we disagree, but it is interesting to see where you value a lot of our bad players and then in discussions about potential FAs that we could bring in (Patrick Queen as a specific example) you downplay the benefit they could provide. 

I don't mean to dismiss your way of thinking, but this roster will be scrubbed. Very few will be here and there won't be any grace for Ron Rivera selected players. I listed the positions we need new starters at, it's very extensive. 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

Who did we win our SBs with? Was it one star QB and a bunch of nobodies? 

No doubt, I take your point. They had a different recipe. But a lot has changed since then.

Free agency and the salary cap make it so much more difficult to keep together a core of players like we were able to do in the 80s.

No chance we could have kept all 3 of Monk and Clark and Sanders into the late 80s and early 90s. In addition to an elite CB in Darrell Green. And an elite OT in Joe Jacoby. And an elite DE in Charles Mann. And still have room to keep around guys like Russ Grimm, Jeff Bostic, Raleigh McKenzie, Monte Coleman, etc. And to go out and trade for a star LT like Jim Lachey. And to sign a star LB in his prime like Wilber Marshall. And to bring in other name vets like Earnest Byner and Gerald Riggs and Jumpy Geathers and Matt Millen.

Hell, under today’s rules, it probably would have all collapsed by 1985 due to being strapped by huge dead cap for Theismann after he got hurt. You can’t keep a dozen great players together forever anymore — but you can keep one superstar QB forever.

 

I think it also goes without saying that it’s now a passing league, whereas it was much more balanced back at that time. The Lombardi trophy has a type nowadays — it almost always goes home with an elite QB anymore. Since 2003, there’ve only been 4 SBs that weren’t won by a first-ballot HOF QB: Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Matthew Stafford. And of those, both Wilson and Stafford were consensus top 5-10 QBs when they won it.

Put another way, our glory days closely sandwiched the time (1989) when the Vikings gave up basically every asset they had for a RB. Nowadays, RBs can’t even get second contracts — but there have been numerous trades of that magnitude to try to acquire QBs in recent years. It’s a different world now.

 

I think the last big difference is that at that time, we had the guy who I consider to be (at least arguably) the greatest coach of all-time. Who happened to be an offensive mastermind. Gibbs was able to do what no other coach in the Super Bowl era has ever been able to do, in terms of winning consistently without a franchise QB.

If we still had 40-year-old Joe Gibbs, I might be more willing to bite on the notion of turning some mediocre QB talent into a temporary star. But we’ve got Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury. I’m not super sanguine about our chances of watching those guys turn Howell or some similar talent into a Super Bowl winner. I think they need the high-end talent.

2 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

I wholeheartedly disagree with this entire take. Josh Allen is a star QB, how many SBs has he won? What about Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyle Murray, Deshaun Watson?

With the exception of Burrow (and Murray, who doesn’t really belong in the discussion), every one of those guys has been stopped in his tracks by the greatest QB of their generation. Allen hasn’t been to a SB because he ran into Mahomes. Lamar hasn’t been to an SB because he ran into Mahomes. And so on with all of them.

It’s sort of like saying “who needs great guard play in the NBA?” and then pointing to the league in the 90s as proof. John Stockton, Reggie Miller, Clyde Drexler, Gary Payton, Glen Rice, Tim Hardaway, Chris Mullin, Kevin Johnson, etc. All of them HOF (or HOF-adjacent) guards, and what did they win? Nothing! …but it was because they ran into the one dude who was doing guard play even better than them.

Allen, Burrow, and Lamar are the next tier at this point below Mahomes. And though they’re all young, they’ve all already been to the brink of championship glory. And to get there, each one of them had to try to go through Mahomes — the one dude doing QB play better than them.

That’s not really convincing me that I don’t want to keep shooting for a superstar QB.

[HTTRDynasty]

This team was top 10 in defensive DVOA a year ago.  Between the coaching upgrades, the likely QB upgrade, the most attractive combination of draft capital + cap room in the league and a last place schedule... yes, we can absolutely compete for a playoff spot next year.

This league is built for parity.  There are shocking playoff teams every season.  No reason it can't be us.  It's actually happened a few times for us recently... the hope is that next time we'll sustain that success in consecutive seasons and beyond.

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

I think we have a far more experienced and educated staff than anyone on this board and anything we have had in the past 20 years, yes even Gibbs 2.0. I trust them to make the correct decision for the direction and future of this team. If that's at QB, awesome. If it's a different position, I hope we capitalize on the positional value of our draft position and trade out of the spot while nabbing the best player possible. 

I actually feel the same way. Especially about Peters and his ability to evaluate talent.

That’s why I’d be comfortable staying at 2 to take the QB and passing up some sort of big trade parcel. Because I’m not convinced that we need some massive windfall of picks in order for him to be able to build a good team around the QB.

They didn’t need anything crazy to build up probably the league’s best roster in SF. Hell, they traded a massive amount of pick value for a QB that they got absolutely nothing out of — and they’re still that good from a talent standpoint. He’s got surplus picks this year and the full complement moving forward, in addition to a mountain of cap space to use as he sees fit. 

I feel very optimistic about the team moving forward, and I certainly think they have enough draft capital to take a big swing at a QB with the #2 pick without compromising their ability to immediately build around him in any substantial way.

[ripsean21]

12 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I actually feel the same way. Especially about Peters and his ability to evaluate talent.

That’s why I’d be comfortable staying at 2 to take the QB and passing up some sort of big trade parcel. Because I’m not convinced that we need some massive windfall of picks in order for him to be able to build a good team around the QB.

They didn’t need anything crazy to build up probably the league’s best roster in SF. Hell, they traded a massive amount of pick value for a QB that they got absolutely nothing out of — and they’re still that good from a talent standpoint. He’s got surplus picks this year and the full complement moving forward, in addition to a mountain of cap space to use as he sees fit. 

I feel very optimistic about the team moving forward, and I certainly think they have enough draft capital to take a big swing at a QB with the #2 pick without compromising their ability to immediately build around him in any substantial way.

But that big allotment of picks sure helped Jalen Hurts go from Jag to all pro pretty solidly. While also building and developing he and the roster they had ammo reserved where if they found a better option they could have sent it to upgrade. Teams that prepare properly tend to have better results. They had fallbacks and just kept maximizing return and collecting assets. And until they absolutely fell apart Philly and their GM were considered having cheat codes. Truth is they just built a roster while a QB worked and improved. While he still has many holes the roster ultimately caught up to the great teams and they all elevated. 

[Slappy Mc]

28 minutes ago, e16bball said:

With the exception of Burrow (and Murray, who doesn’t really belong in the discussion), every one of those guys has been stopped in his tracks by the greatest QB of their generation. Allen hasn’t been to a SB because he ran into Mahomes. Lamar hasn’t been to an SB because he ran into Mahomes. And so on with all of them.

It’s sort of like saying “who needs great guard play in the NBA?” and then pointing to the league in the 90s as proof. John Stockton, Reggie Miller, Clyde Drexler, Gary Payton, Glen Rice, Tim Hardaway, Chris Mullin, Kevin Johnson, etc. All of them HOF (or HOF-adjacent) guards, and what did they win? Nothing! …but it was because they ran into the one dude who was doing guard play even better than them.

Allen, Burrow, and Lamar are the next tier at this point below Mahomes. And though they’re all young, they’ve all already been to the brink of championship glory. And to get there, each one of them had to try to go through Mahomes — the one dude doing QB play better than them.

That’s not really convincing me that I don’t want to keep shooting for a superstar QB.

So a few things. First I appreciate your responses specifically your attention to detail for pointed discussions. 

While I agree that the salary cap and free agency changes would have made it much harder to keep the amount of talented players we had during that era, you essentially made a solid point for my discussion with the huge cap number (that has exponentially increased since Theismann's time) and how much it limits having talent around you. 

Without a selfless player like Mahomes or Brady, the team will seriously suffer from having a high priced QB and very little talent around them. Not to say that Mahomes isn't getting PAID, but he signed a 10 year deal because it was long term goals. 

28 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think it also goes without saying that it’s now a passing league, whereas it was much more balanced back at that time. The Lombardi trophy has a type nowadays — it almost always goes home with an elite QB anymore. Since 2003, there’ve only been 4 SBs that weren’t won by a first-ballot HOF QB: Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Matthew Stafford. And of those, both Wilson and Stafford were consensus top 5-10 QBs when they won it.

Put another way, our glory days closely sandwiched the time (1989) when the Vikings gave up basically every asset they had for a RB. Nowadays, RBs can’t even get second contracts — but there have been numerous trades of that magnitude to try to acquire QBs in recent years. It’s a different world now.

 

I think the last big difference is that at that time, we had the guy who I consider to be (at least arguably) the greatest coach of all-time. Who happened to be an offensive mastermind. Gibbs was able to do what no other coach in the Super Bowl era has ever been able to do, in terms of winning consistently without a franchise QB.

If we still had 40-year-old Joe Gibbs, I might be more willing to bite on the notion of turning some mediocre QB talent into a temporary star. But we’ve got Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury. I’m not super sanguine about our chances of watching those guys turn Howell or some similar talent into a Super Bowl winner. I think they need the high-end talent.

I do agree the days of RBs being a priority are gone. Everyone is after the shiny QB that can "carry them to a championship". I still firmly believe that it doesn't require that. We can give Mahomes a lot of credit, and it is due, but he didn't win that championship alone. Without Travis Kelce (star) making a tremendous catch and run, LB Leo Chenal (92.0 pff grade for SB) forcing the McCaffrey fumble on the opening drive, and KCs defense adjusting and forcing SF into 3 3-and-outs to start the 2nd half and most importantly, holding SF to a FG in the Red zone in OT, Kansas City doesn't win that SB. 

So while having the guy at QB helps, it's not the be-all-end-all as it's being portrayed. Lamar Jackson was voted MVP, he didn't win the SB. KC has invested massive resources into the offensive line and it still needs work.

I also would like to point out that Brock Purdy isn't a top tier QB and had his HC known OT rules, there is a strong chance they win that SB. 

29 minutes ago, e16bball said:

With the exception of Burrow (and Murray, who doesn’t really belong in the discussion), every one of those guys has been stopped in his tracks by the greatest QB of their generation. Allen hasn’t been to a SB because he ran into Mahomes. Lamar hasn’t been to an SB because he ran into Mahomes. And so on with all of them.

It’s sort of like saying “who needs great guard play in the NBA?” and then pointing to the league in the 90s as proof. John Stockton, Reggie Miller, Clyde Drexler, Gary Payton, Glen Rice, Tim Hardaway, Chris Mullin, Kevin Johnson, etc. All of them HOF (or HOF-adjacent) guards, and what did they win? Nothing! …but it was because they ran into the one dude who was doing guard play even better than them.

Allen, Burrow, and Lamar are the next tier at this point below Mahomes. And though they’re all young, they’ve all already been to the brink of championship glory. And to get there, each one of them had to try to go through Mahomes — the one dude doing QB play better than them.

That’s not really convincing me that I don’t want to keep shooting for a superstar QB.

Again, we can have the discussion that franchise QBs significantly improve your chances of winning the big game, but it's not the be all end all. I will say that comparing NBA, where one player can score 70 points himself, to a game where one player can't do anything alone is not apples to apples, but I take the argument for what it is. You need a minimum of a very good game manager at the most important position, which I agree QB is. 

I am curious why you are leaving Murray out of the list. Heisman winners, drafted 1st overall, highly touted prospect, highly rated QB when healthy. Checks all the boxes of the discussion of draft pick evaluation and what having a highly drafted QB can do for you. 

Also we need to stop saying that a QB is competing with another QB. It's like talking about QBs W/L record, it doesn't accurately depict what really happened. 

I understand your, and everyone else's, opinion on having THE guy back there. I understand wanting to shoot your shot until you get it right. I just argue that you can scheme a QB to being successful, Ala Brock Purdy, by good coaching and talent around them just as easily (if not more IMO), than winning the lottery on a draft pick "that has all the tools" panning out and who changes the trajectory of the franchise. Ask the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans how much luck they have had shooting for their franchise QB.

[turtle28]

5 hours ago, RSkinGM said:

Tua- figured too small, gonna get hurt. Fields and Lance- I prefer the more pocket passer generally. Love . He was second round where he belonged. 

Jordan Love was a 1st round pick, 26th overall. A lot of people questioned it bc they still had Aaron Rodgers. Instead of taking Love, they could've taken a WR like Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman or TE Cole Kemet.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

There's a difference between comparing Dan Quinn to what else was available vs Dan Quinn vs what we had before. Dan Quinn is an upgrade to what we had before. Dan Quinn was not a good hire compared to what else was available. 

You sure? How many other cosches that were available went to the Super Bowl in the last decade as a HC?

How many of those coaches took over the worst defense in the league & in two years turned it into one of the best?

[Slappy Mc]

39 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

This team was top 10 in defensive DVOA a year ago.  Between the coaching upgrades, the likely QB upgrade, the most attractive combination of draft capital + cap room in the league and a last place schedule... yes, we can absolutely compete for a playoff spot next year.

This league is built for parity.  There are shocking playoff teams every season.  No reason it can't be us.  It's actually happened a few times for us recently... the hope is that next time we'll sustain that success in consecutive seasons and beyond.

It absolutely can be us, but as I said, I can win the lottery as well. 

Two of the teams in our division held 2 of the 7 NFC playoff spots. The worst record for a NFC playoff team was 9-8, that's over double our win total from this past season. We got swept by every division opponent this past year (0-6). Both the Eagles and Cowboys had 11 or more wins. 

In my opinion it's way too early to be drinking that kool-aid. As we have seen, with every decision made, peoples outlooks can change 180 degrees. 

If we trade out of #2 for a haul or don't draft a QB at #2 or heaven forbid it's not the QB that a specific person wanted, fans revolt. It's a very common theme for us. Like I said, I am undereducated on player evaluation and development, and I firmly believe in the guy that was hired for that department. So whoever they decide to get, I will support completely and hope it works. #TrustTheProcess

[turtle28]

2 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

It absolutely can be us, but as I said, I can win the lottery as well. 

Two of the teams in our division held 2 of the 7 NFC playoff spots. The worst record for a NFC playoff team was 9-8, that's over double our win total from this past season. We got swept by every division opponent this past year (0-6). Both the Eagles and Cowboys had 11 or more wins. 

In my opinion it's way too early to be drinking that kool-aid. As we have seen, with every decision made, peoples outlooks can change 180 degrees. 

If we trade out of #2 for a haul or don't draft a QB at #2 or heaven forbid it's not the QB that a specific person wanted, fans revolt. It's a very common theme for us. Like I said, I am undereducated on player evaluation and development, and I firmly believe in the guy that was hired for that department. So whoever they decide to get, I will support completely and hope it works. #TrustTheProcess

And the Cowboys just lost their defensive coordinator who took the worst D in 2020 to be one of the best in 2022 & 23 plus, their DL cosch who totally rebuilt their DL to us.

[Slappy Mc]

2 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

And the Cowboys just lost their defensive coordinator who took the worst D in 2020 to be one of the best in 2022 & 23 plus, their DL cosch who totally rebuilt their DL to us.

How did they do that? Oh yeah they started by drafting Micah Parsons. Again, we can keep going through this debate. Yes, Dan Quinn was part of it, but Parsons had 13 sacks and 84 tackles his rookie year. They didn't just try to make the players better because they got a better coach, they found top tier talent. 

[e16bball]

5 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

If we trade out of #2 for a haul or don't draft a QB at #2 or heaven forbid it's not the QB that a specific person wanted, fans revolt. It's a very common theme for us. Like I said, I am undereducated on player evaluation and development, and I firmly believe in the guy that was hired for that department. So whoever they decide to get, I will support completely and hope it works. #TrustTheProcess

I’m not sure that will be true, at least for trading out of 2 for a haul of picks. 

It’s not my preference, based on the limited information I have, but I’m not in the room meeting with these guys like Maye and Daniels. I can say that what I see on the field and (am about to) see at the combine suggests that from a physical/skills standpoint, they’re worth wagering on.

But the best I can say about the mental side is that it seems like people speak highly of them — and that’s not enough to say they have to be the pick under any circumstances. It’s totally possible that they’re both not up to snuff mentally or both have “Ben Johnson” type personalities or something, for lack of a better way of saying it. They can’t take them if they feel that way about them, so it’s impossible for me to say what they have to do. I hope others would be reasonable about that possibility, too.

Plus, as I’ve mentioned before, the draft fanatic in me would find it exciting to have a boatload more picks. I spend a lot of time on this stuff — my team dominating the draft capital multiple years in a row would be a lot of fun.

 

But I can also say this: if they do pass on those two guys that consensus says are potential star QBs? They better be right. Because there’s almost no way they could come back from that, in my eyes at least.

Edited February 24 by e16bball

[turtle28]

 

[turtle28]

16 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

How did they do that? Oh yeah they started by drafting Micah Parsons. Again, we can keep going through this debate. Yes, Dan Quinn was part of it, but Parsons had 13 sacks and 84 tackles his rookie year. They didn't just try to make the players better because they got a better coach, they found top tier talent. 

Obviously getting Parsons at #12 - who should’ve went top 5 but sexual assault rumors had his fall - was the biggest piece, but their secondary got a lot better under Dan Quinn. Their interior DL did as well.

Edited February 24 by turtle28