The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[offbyone]

6 hours ago, turtle28 said:

If they want Caleb two things are going to have to happen:

1. The Bears are going to have to choose Fields over Caleb, and I'm not sure why they would when Caleb is better from the pocket & he’ll be on a rookie deal 3 years longer 

2. They’ll have to trade up for him

I think the QB we’ll most likely end up drafting is Drake Maye.

The other question here is Caleb seems to be making it clear he doesn't want to go to the bears.  I find that to be a big turn off from him, but my feelings aside, the real question is would the bears care enough about that to pass on him?

 

[MKnight82]

Caleb Williams grew up in DC? 

[MKnight82]

3 hours ago, Scott Land said:

Caleb Williams is the highest rated prospect since Andrew Luck.

Maybe before this season, but his play this season has cooled off his stock a lot. I don't think he's a cut above any normal #1 overall projected player at this point. 

[ARTMONK HOF]

22 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Caleb Williams grew up in DC? 

Yes he did

[e16bball]

17 hours ago, TOUCAN said:

Great. Now let’s do that with Drake Maye late in the season against Clemson where he looked completely lost.

Okay, we can do that. Everybody has their better or worse games, so I take your point in that regard. But I’ve watched both of those games multiple times now, and that comparison just doesn’t come out great for JD.

From Maye against Clemson, we see at least two big throws, probably three, in that game better than anything JD did against FSU. The “down the chimney” throw to Tez on the opening drive, the ridiculous 40-yard fadeaway pylon dot for the TD, and another deep one that was obvious DPI. Two of those were working against potential 1st rounder Nate Wiggins. There’s also a play with some pretty ridiculous creativity, where he rolls out and then pitches a little shovel pass into open space for a 15-yard gain. As always, he was sharp throwing between the numbers, and he actually ran the ball very effectively.

What’s JD’s best pass play in the FSU game? Not a rhetorical question — is there even a single play that you’d call a legit high-end NFL throw in that whole game?

No doubt, Maye got overwhelmed at certain points by the Clemson defense. He seemed to struggle with Trotter in that spy/dog role, and Trotter definitely got him a couple times. Didn’t handle the pressure great. They were both frustrating at times from a decision making standpoint — throwing short of the sticks or taking sacks on 4th down (somehow JD ate the ball twice on 4th down plays). And JD’s penchant for stupidly putting his body at risk was on full display, as he was hopping around, trying to jump over guys and damn near getting himself killed by Bethune in the process.

 

In the end, the thing that hurts JD the most in my mind is that it’s not an even comparison. He’s a 5-year college starter who is already 23, while Maye is a 2-year starter who only just turned 21. JD should be way ahead of Maye in some of these areas — fundamentals, processing, mechanics, decision-making — because of his vast advantage in experience and several additional years getting hands-on college coaching. And he just isn’t ahead of him in those areas. That’s my biggest concern, along with the fact that I think he’s a walking injury waiting to happen with his recklessness and thin frame.

Obviously, the most important parts of being a QB in the NFL — intelligence, leadership, communication, work ethic, etc — are basically impossible to assess when you can’t meet with the kids. Maybe Jayden is off the charts in all those areas and Drake is unimpressive, which would of course change things dramatically. But just based on what they’ve put on film, I think Maye is well ahead of JD in the passing game, which is the trump card for me.

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, offbyone said:

The other question here is Caleb seems to be making it clear he doesn't want to go to the bears.  I find that to be a big turn off from him, but my feelings aside, the real question is would the bears care enough about that to pass on him?

I saw that too, although I then saw some follow-up reporting that suggested that when he *likes* a tweet, he doesn’t do it because he agrees with or approves of the point of the tweet — he does it because he is keeping “receipts” of people doubting him. 

So, the theory goes, he wasn’t signaling his approval of Chicago passing on him — he was keeping for himself the post suggesting that they should.

I dunno. The kid does seem like…a lot. There seems to be a whole lot of personality in there, and maybe it’s too much. Maybe it’s not the best way to build the foundation from the ground up, by trading up for a kid who does seem to spend a whole lot of time in his feelings. But man, the talent is just off the charts. Not many guys, even in the NFL, can repeatedly make the kind of plays that are so ridiculous that all you can do is laugh.

[MKnight82]

Drake Maye lost to UVA this year.  Let that sink in. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by MKnight82

[offbyone]

4 hours ago, e16bball said:

I saw that too, although I then saw some follow-up reporting that suggested that when he *likes* a tweet, he doesn’t do it because he agrees with or approves of the point of the tweet — he does it because he is keeping “receipts” of people doubting him. 

So, the theory goes, he wasn’t signaling his approval of Chicago passing on him — he was keeping for himself the post suggesting that they should.

I dunno. The kid does seem like…a lot. There seems to be a whole lot of personality in there, and maybe it’s too much. Maybe it’s not the best way to build the foundation from the ground up, by trading up for a kid who does seem to spend a whole lot of time in his feelings. But man, the talent is just off the charts. Not many guys, even in the NFL, can repeatedly make the kind of plays that are so ridiculous that all you can do is laugh.

Yeah.  A bit much for me.  A lot of big personalities in the nfl, but I also have a hard time thinking this kind of personality results in the leadership needed in the nfl at qb.  Who knows.

[ripsean21]

10 hours ago, e16bball said:

I saw that too, although I then saw some follow-up reporting that suggested that when he *likes* a tweet, he doesn’t do it because he agrees with or approves of the point of the tweet — he does it because he is keeping “receipts” of people doubting him. 

So, the theory goes, he wasn’t signaling his approval of Chicago passing on him — he was keeping for himself the post suggesting that they should.

I dunno. The kid does seem like…a lot. There seems to be a whole lot of personality in there, and maybe it’s too much. Maybe it’s not the best way to build the foundation from the ground up, by trading up for a kid who does seem to spend a whole lot of time in his feelings. But man, the talent is just off the charts. Not many guys, even in the NFL, can repeatedly make the kind of plays that are so ridiculous that all you can do is laugh.

What I will give Williams is he hasn’t had a defense. So the can’t win a big game knock I think is alittle out there. He came in for Oklahoma as a freshman and blew the doors off the red river game. He didn’t let Tajee Spears go off last year in their bowl game and he def didn’t give up like 40plus points a game in every big matchup this year. He does look like Mahomes. He plays like him and he will wow you at every opportunity. But that’s a rare scheme from a X’s and O’s standpoint that you’re marrying yourself too to give this kid a real shot at developing him into a winner. What he isn’t showing much in college like Mahomes is can he play from within the confines of a system where you take the 3 yard pass on a hot read instead of running and subjecting himself to hit because in college they have piled up and he has had little injuries add up. Like any prospect it’s about fit. What potential HC are we going to hire that you see what they’ve worked with do you feel is going to tailor their system to what he does while allowing him to be his best while also making him play within their system? 
 

yes the NFL is a copycat league so while this class has a lot of attractive comps for the QB class ie. Williams/Mahomes, Daniels/ Jackson, Maye/ young Big Ben, Penix/ Stroud. But you have to fit them. I say it every year every class you essentially will add one QB wherever in the draft where they go to a team and staff and it gels. This class is going to get 4 staffs fired in the next 4 years. And while we have a lot to be excited about because Snyder isn’t making a single hire here this time and Harris does have some ownership experience and we all can agree he will give us what we wanted as far as not putting non football input into these moves the people he puts in place ultimately are on the hook. Just because you put football people in place doesn’t mean they will make the right marriage in the draft. Everyone has tendencies. We could pass one whoever because after the offseason someone interviews and they change their ideal pick because they got blown away and they pass on what they should have taken. I hope for us that we make the right hires and the right picks. But there’s a really great possibility we’re right back here in four years without this same cap space because of bad moves and who do we blame then? Can pawn that off on Snyder and if that is the case that’s a bad start for this Harris group. This is a ton of pressure on this ownership. This isn’t a normal fanbase.

What Gibbs and Bethard did here will probably never be duplicated! With the cap I’d almost bank everything on the fact it can’t be. Keeping a team together in a cap with how much turnover FA causes and the prospect of getting younger doesn’t allow these super teams to maintain because it rolls over to quickly. So while we’re hopeful that this can finally be the start of something truely special because things have lined up to be statistically speaking the odds are still astronomically low we will make every right decision this offseason so 4 years from now we’re looking like the next contender for years to come. 

[MKnight82]

I am very much against trading up for any player. If we want to take a QB at 3 then fine, but I don’t think we should be giving away resources to move up. We need to add a lot of new talent to the roster via the draft this year, not just a single player. 

[Slappy Mc]

2 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

I am very much against trading up for any player. If we want to take a QB at 3 then fine, but I don’t think we should be giving away resources to move up. We need to add a lot of new talent to the roster via the draft this year, not just a single player. 

I 100% agree. We are going to be turning over this terrible roster, and if anything we need more draft picks, not less.

[e16bball]

16 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Drake Maye lost to UVA this year.  Let that sink in. 

Honestly, he looked worse in the first half of that game than he ever looked against Clemson. The second half was a stark reminder of how bad his supporting cast (coaching included) was at times.

While I still think I favor Maye over Daniels for a variety of reasons, if you did place strong priority on the last half of this season, I can certainly see how you’d have Daniels ahead. UNC was terrible and Maye struggled right along with them at times, and Daniels was absolutely electric in a few of those games. Still think he was playing a much easier game — thanks to those receivers and massively better pass protection — but you couldn’t really watch both of them and say Maye was the better player on the field from about mid-October on.

[MikeT14]

Have a game Barrett Carter

[turtle28]

21 hours ago, offbyone said:

The other question here is Caleb seems to be making it clear he doesn't want to go to the bears.  I find that to be a big turn off from him, but my feelings aside, the real question is would the bears care enough about that to pass on him?

 

I think they would trade the pick before passing on him & taking someone else at #1.  They could trade the pick to us or the Pats whoever gives them the better trade package and draft Maye, MHJ, Alt, or Fashanu with that pick.

[e16bball]

5 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

I am very much against trading up for any player. If we want to take a QB at 3 then fine, but I don’t think we should be giving away resources to move up. We need to add a lot of new talent to the roster via the draft this year, not just a single player. 

3 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

I 100% agree. We are going to be turning over this terrible roster, and if anything we need more draft picks, not less.

Just sitting there at 3 and taking the 3rd best QB on the board (having let the Bears take Williams and the Pats or Giants jump us to #2) feels like a distinctly Ron Rivera thing to do. Totally passive, totally indecisive. Let the rest of the teams figure out who gets left for us to choose from.

 

Anyone who’s known me for the last 20 (!) years on this board knows that I totally agree that more picks is better than less. If I was running a team, I always would be looking to move down if I thought I could get comparable value at a lower pick, and land some extra capital in the process — and I’m sure Eugene and whatever forward-thinking GM they install will feel the same way.

Except…

The one situation in which I don’t think it’s smart to play “value” strategy games in the draft is when it comes to QB. If you love a guy, you have to be aggressive to get him. Because there’s no replacement — missing on a guy you believe in as a future superstar is catastrophic, and it’s not sufficient to just pivot to the next best guy if you don’t feel the same way about him.

And the pressing reality is that the chance to take guys like that doesn’t come around often. We were in a position to take a blue chip QB prospect back in 2020, and we passed, and we’ve had to sit through four mostly unsuccessful seasons — with 4 mostly unsuccessful Week One starting QBs — in order to get this chance to be back in that position again.