Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

6 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

The last box for him to check is performing well in crunch time. So far he has failed that test but if you noticed yesterday, it was pretty much a pass heavy start early on and Kyle is giving him more and more trust. We only really started to run the game after getting a big lead. I thought Kyle was too committed to the run at times against Minnesota and Cincy and he needed to just let Purdy go as that was our best offense. 

Once Purdy shows he can get it done in the clutch...He's going to be in the top 10 convos in no time. 

This is an interesting conversation.  The real grade is incomplete at this point, but 1-2 is fair.  0-3 is a little harsh because he got us in position in Cleveland. 

I think the first thing you look at is can the guy stay calm late.  It's not exactly a stat, but some guys are better at making plays late than others.  Purdy generally shows composure, poise, and good decision making skills.  He doesn't seem to play nervous, and he played as well in the playoffs as the regular season.  I think poise is there, so that is positive.

He does not have the strongest arm, so he can't make throws late in the game into small, aggressive windows.  The very best at can lean on their arms against tired defenders, like Elway, Marino, and Favre.  Others have been able to continue to make up for their lack of arm talent later, like Montana and Brees.  I think he has shown that he is able to overcome his limitations, and he is on the plus side of NFL minimum arm talent. 

The third thing is where it gets a little dicey.  This is usually a resounding positive, but coaching and talent haven't proven they can win in the clutch either.  Shanahan is like 1-29 when trailing in the 4th quarter.  I am not sure where the average is there as it's not a 50-50 stat.  The main point here is that this team is not built to throw every down, and that's what clutch situations generally are.  If coaching had a neutral impact on this, I would expect Purdy to turn it around in late game situations.  I expect it to be an uphill battle here, but I still think once the team works on it weekly we will improve by the times the playoffs roll around. 

[JIllg]

10 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

This is an interesting conversation.  The real grade is incomplete at this point, but 1-2 is fair.  0-3 is a little harsh because he got us in position in Cleveland. 

I think the first thing you look at is can the guy stay calm late.  It's not exactly a stat, but some guys are better at making plays late than others.  Purdy generally shows composure, poise, and good decision making skills.  He doesn't seem to play nervous, and he played as well in the playoffs as the regular season.  I think poise is there, so that is positive.

He does not have the strongest arm, so he can't make throws late in the game into small, aggressive windows.  The very best at can lean on their arms against tired defenders, like Elway, Marino, and Favre.  Others have been able to continue to make up for their lack of arm talent later, like Montana and Brees.  I think he has shown that he is able to overcome his limitations, and he is on the plus side of NFL minimum arm talent. 

The third thing is where it gets a little dicey.  This is usually a resounding positive, but coaching and talent haven't proven they can win in the clutch either.  Shanahan is like 1-29 when trailing in the 4th quarter.  I am not sure where the average is there as it's not a 50-50 stat.  The main point here is that this team is not built to throw every down, and that's what clutch situations generally are.  If coaching had a neutral impact on this, I would expect Purdy to turn it around in late game situations.  I expect it to be an uphill battle here, but I still think once the team works on it weekly we will improve by the times the playoffs roll around. 

I agree with the coaching bit of this. The dropback passing part of our offense without play action is the least refined part of our offense. We run the prettiest clever run elements and counter run elements and play action elements in the league. These get copied by everyone else every year once we unveil them. But no one else sees the "double 7 stop with a 7 step drop on 3rd and long" and is like - that is super sweet, let's do that. No one runs the weird McCaffery choice route from like 8 yards deep in a weird slot/wing spot. Same for some of the weird hot rules we have for blitzes. We make them work enough...and Shanahan is always good at having his man answers be zone answers and vice versa so we never feel like we are trying to play rock-paper-scissors in a league where you should just run plays that beat everything if you know how. But it is the part of Shanahan's offense that I like the least (being led there by many Martz disciples in O'Sullivan, Warner, and Martz himself lol, but still).

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Commentary from one of my guilty treasure coaches Mike Martz. 

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

On 11/13/2023 at 7:49 PM, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

This is an interesting conversation.  The real grade is incomplete at this point, but 1-2 is fair.  0-3 is a little harsh because he got us in position in Cleveland. 

I think the first thing you look at is can the guy stay calm late.  It's not exactly a stat, but some guys are better at making plays late than others.  Purdy generally shows composure, poise, and good decision making skills.  He doesn't seem to play nervous, and he played as well in the playoffs as the regular season.  I think poise is there, so that is positive.

He does not have the strongest arm, so he can't make throws late in the game into small, aggressive windows.  The very best at can lean on their arms against tired defenders, like Elway, Marino, and Favre.  Others have been able to continue to make up for their lack of arm talent later, like Montana and Brees.  I think he has shown that he is able to overcome his limitations, and he is on the plus side of NFL minimum arm talent. 

The third thing is where it gets a little dicey.  This is usually a resounding positive, but coaching and talent haven't proven they can win in the clutch either.  Shanahan is like 1-29 when trailing in the 4th quarter.  I am not sure where the average is there as it's not a 50-50 stat.  The main point here is that this team is not built to throw every down, and that's what clutch situations generally are.  If coaching had a neutral impact on this, I would expect Purdy to turn it around in late game situations.  I expect it to be an uphill battle here, but I still think once the team works on it weekly we will improve by the times the playoffs roll around. 

He's been poised for the most part but I do not agree he's stayed as calm as he is in the first three quarters. And yes, he got the offense down the field against the Browns, but almost threw a INT to start the drive. The Bengals INT after his first INT was his worst decision. That was inexcusable and he definitely needs more of those opportunities and he needs to come through in them to truly be recognized as one of the best QBs in the leauge.

That stat you are referring to is very flawed. There were PLENTY of clutch drives led by Jimmy G during his tenure here. In fact, he was kind of the opposite of Purdy. He would struggle early on and then turn into a clutch beast late in games. The Shanny stat is ENTERING the 4th quarter but that doesn't really mean much since you can be up or tied and lose the lead needing a late drive to win or send the game to OT. 2019 and 2021 had about 10 or so clutch drives from Jimmy. And even in other games where a score wasn't needed, Jimmy was able to ice the game with big time 3rd or 4th down conversions. Excited to see the next opportunity Purdy gets and there will be a next one soon with the type of schedule we have upcoming.  

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

He's been poised for the most part but I do not agree he's stayed as calm as he is in the first three quarters. And yes, he got the offense down the field against the Browns, but almost threw a INT to start the drive. The Bengals INT after his first INT was his worst decision. That was inexcusable and he definitely needs more of those opportunities and he needs to come through in them to truly be recognized as one of the best QBs in the leauge.

That stat you are referring to is very flawed. There were PLENTY of clutch drives led by Jimmy G during his tenure here. In fact, he was kind of the opposite of Purdy. He would struggle early on and then turn into a clutch beast late in games. The Shanny stat is ENTERING the 4th quarter but that doesn't really mean much since you can be up or tied and lose the lead needing a late drive to win or send the game to OT. 2019 and 2021 had about 10 or so clutch drives from Jimmy. And even in other games where a score wasn't needed, Jimmy was able to ice the game with big time 3rd or 4th down conversions. Excited to see the next opportunity Purdy gets and there will be a next one soon with the type of schedule we have upcoming.  

Providing a less flawed stat would be nice.  I would prefer Shanahan's record when trailing at any point in the 4th quarter, compared to the league average.  Jimmy was only as good as the running game in 4 minute situations.  I don't recall him having very many big drives late in games. 

I will stick with incomplete.  Jimmy has gone entire playoff games without throwing a pass.

Jimmy was constantly in close games, whereas a Brock Purdy led team is capable of blowing out another team.  Jimmy played so many close games against inferior teams, I thought he was point shaving.  Jimmy G lead teams almost never scored thirty points either.   The only time games are close with this team is when they are playing like crap.  

I think a Brock Purdy Led 49ers team beats a Jimmy G led 49ers team.  

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Providing a less flawed stat would be nice.  I would prefer Shanahan's record when trailing at any point in the 4th quarter, compared to the league average.  Jimmy was only as good as the running game in 4 minute situations.  I don't recall him having very many big drives late in games. 

I will stick with incomplete.  Jimmy has gone entire playoff games without throwing a pass.

Jimmy was constantly in close games, whereas a Brock Purdy led team is capable of blowing out another team.  Jimmy played so many close games against inferior teams, I thought he was point shaving.  Jimmy G lead teams almost never scored thirty points either.   The only time games are close with this team is when they are playing like crap.  

I think a Brock Purdy Led 49ers team beats a Jimmy G led 49ers team.  

Just in 2019 for Jimmy on clutch drives:

Game winning TD vs Pitt

Game winning FG vs NO

Game winning TD vs AZ

Game winning vs LAR

Cutch 3rd and long conversion against AZ to win ice the game.

In 2021:

Game winning TD vs CIN

Game tying TD drive vs TEN (down 7 before the Titans won it on the following possession)

Game tying TD drive vs LAR at the end of regulation and then the game winning drive in OT

Game winning FG vs GB in the divisional round 

 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

31 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Just in 2019 for Jimmy on clutch drives:

Game winning TD vs Pitt

Game winning FG vs NO

Game winning TD vs AZ

Game winning vs LAR

Cutch 3rd and long conversion against AZ to win ice the game.

In 2021:

Game winning TD vs CIN

Game tying TD drive vs TEN (down 7 before the Titans won it on the following possession)

Game tying TD drive vs LAR at the end of regulation and then the game winning drive in OT

Game winning FG vs GB in the divisional round 

 

How many games did the offense score over 30 and blow out another team?  

Jimmy had a lot of those opportunities, because he bogged down at different points in the game.  

Brock has had two opportunities, maybe three at these clutch moments.  Most of the other time, he is up by multiple scores.  Jimmy's had so many opportunities at the close games, and he has failed to convert a few times as well.

Even if Brock never gets better in the clutch, it is still better than Jimmy G.  I just think there was a lot going on in that specific three game stretch that prevents the data from being representative or projectable.  Mainly missing Trent, lack of rest, defensive softness, and a concussion that I thought Brock came back from too soon.   I would like to see him have a few clutch moments, but I would rather see him blow the doors off of teams.

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[J-ALL-DAY]

20 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

How many games did the offense score over 30 and blow out another team?  

Jimmy had a lot of those opportunities, because he bogged down at different points in the game.  

Brock has had two opportunities, maybe three at these clutch moments.  Most of the other time, he is up by multiple scores.  Jimmy's had so many opportunities at the close games, and he has failed to convert a few times as well.

Even if Brock never gets better in the clutch, it is still better than Jimmy G.  I just think there was a lot going on in that specific three game stretch that prevents the data from being representative or projectable.  Mainly missing Trent, lack of rest, defensive softness, and a concussion that I thought Brock came back from too soon.   I would like to see him have a few clutch moments, but I would rather see him blow the doors off of teams.

So I think you are arguing something totally different. I am not saying Jimmy is superior to Brock or I rather have Jimmy....No, and I agree that some of those comebacks had to open because of how incompetent Jimmy was prior to clutch time. Jimmy should not be Brock's comparison...IF Brock is the franchise QB we think he is or can be, then he needs to come through in those situations just like the other top QBs often times do. That is not some unfair expectations. Brock WILL get more chances and I can't wait for the next one he gets after his back to back failures vs the Vikings and Bengals. If he starts to show some clutch play down the stretch with all the other good stuff he does before that point of the game? He's going to be recognized as one of the best in the game and rightfully. And as fans, THAT is what we all should be hoping for. 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:05 AM, J-ALL-DAY said:

So I think you are arguing something totally different. I am not saying Jimmy is superior to Brock or I rather have Jimmy....No, and I agree that some of those comebacks had to open because of how incompetent Jimmy was prior to clutch time. Jimmy should not be Brock's comparison...IF Brock is the franchise QB we think he is or can be, then he needs to come through in those situations just like the other top QBs often times do. That is not some unfair expectations. Brock WILL get more chances and I can't wait for the next one he gets after his back to back failures vs the Vikings and Bengals. If he starts to show some clutch play down the stretch with all the other good stuff he does before that point of the game? He's going to be recognized as one of the best in the game and rightfully. And as fans, THAT is what we all should be hoping for. 

Ok, the list of Jimmy G's greatest hits off hand threw me for a loop.  I was tired and my memory was a little fuzzy.  I didn't have time to go through each of those games, watch the highlights, and kick in the ole memory circuits.  

I agree, that we will need Brock to be clutch at multiple points in the year, but not necessarily in November.  Clutch performance is certainly important, but it is more important to some players, coaches, and teams than others.  A Jim Harbaugh lead team is an example of a coach that requires extra clutchie-ness from his QB.  I was concerned about the Harbaugh Alex Marriage for that very reason.  Alex seemed to play tight, and the tighter the game got, the tighter Alex played.  Harbaugh turned it around 180 in that regard, and the team began to win.  There were also a lot of other factors playing into it, but I feel like Alex's ability to perform in the clutch was the thing that made the 2011 team more than just a middling wild card contender. 

Back to Brock.  I feel that with the current team, scheme, and coaching staff the clutch performance is less impactful than in most situations.  At least it has been up to this point in the Brock Kyle marriage.  The real question is when the time comes, and the whole season is one the line, will Brock step up.  Most indicators are positive, other than the performance against the Browns, Bengals, and Vikings.  For me, I feel like the other factors played enough of a role to counterbalance the game situation.  Rest, health, focus, coaching creativity, defensive performance and fatigue all affected the whole team negatively.  I would have preferred to see Brock step up in one or two of those situations and be deodorant for the team on a bad day, but it seems like a lot to foist onto the kid.  That is why I consider it a wash up to this point, but I feel like it projects positive moving forward, in spite of the three game skid.   

Edited November 18, 2023 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[TecmoSuperJoe]

On 11/16/2023 at 12:41 AM, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

How many games did the offense score over 30 and blow out another team?  

Jimmy had a lot of those opportunities, because he bogged down at different points in the game.  

Brock has had two opportunities, maybe three at these clutch moments.  Most of the other time, he is up by multiple scores.  Jimmy's had so many opportunities at the close games, and he has failed to convert a few times as well.

Even if Brock never gets better in the clutch, it is still better than Jimmy G.  I just think there was a lot going on in that specific three game stretch that prevents the data from being representative or projectable.  Mainly missing Trent, lack of rest, defensive softness, and a concussion that I thought Brock came back from too soon.   I would like to see him have a few clutch moments, but I would rather see him blow the doors off of teams.

 

Quite a few times with Jimmy G at the helm when he started games. And that was before the offense got a boost with the likes of a CMC. If you go back, and look at just the boxscores alone from that 2019 to 2022 stretch there are a lot of 30+ point games where the 49ers blew the other team out when Jimmy was triggerman.

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

15 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Quite a few times with Jimmy G at the helm when he started games. And that was before the offense got a boost with the likes of a CMC. If you go back, and look at just the boxscores alone from that 2019 to 2022 stretch there are a lot of 30+ point games where the 49ers blew the other team out when Jimmy was triggerman.

They didn't have CMC, but they had McDaniels controlling the running game, and that made a difference.  They had Laken Tomlinson and McGlinchy, who both started over the guys we have now when all 4 were in the building.    Honestly, I haven't been thinking about Jimmy G at all this season.  The idea that Jimmy G walks out of the tunnel and blows teams out with his passing arm is just not something that I remember happening.  I know this is moving the goal posts a little, but the Brock led 49ers have been up by 2 scores a really high percentage of the time.  Brock and the passing game are clearly better overall than Jimmy G's passing game.  So good that he has very limited clutch snaps.  The only clutch snaps Brock has had were when he had a concussion and the entire team was fatigued and playing like crap.  If he failed to read the robber once or twice per game, he might get more clutch opportunities like Jimmy G.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[TecmoSuperJoe]

5 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

They didn't have CMC, but they had McDaniels controlling the running game, and that made a difference.  They had Laken Tomlinson and McGlinchy, who both started over the guys we have now when all 4 were in the building.    Honestly, I haven't been thinking about Jimmy G at all this season.  The idea that Jimmy G walks out of the tunnel and blows teams out with his passing arm is just not something that I remember happening.  I know this is moving the goal posts a little, but the Brock led 49ers have been up by 2 scores a really high percentage of the time.  Brock and the passing game are clearly better overall than Jimmy G's passing game.  So good that he has very limited clutch snaps.  The only clutch snaps Brock has had were when he had a concussion and the entire team was fatigued and playing like crap.  If he failed to read the robber once or twice per game, he might get more clutch opportunities like Jimmy G.

I think I'll take CMC without McDaniels, but with Shanahan over no CMC, but McDaniels, Shanahan, and whoever else was utilized in the offense. But I digress. 

[Forge]

😂

[Forge]

You love to see it

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

6 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

I think I'll take CMC without McDaniels, but with Shanahan over no CMC, but McDaniels, Shanahan, and whoever else was utilized in the offense. But I digress. 

Yeah, I agree under most circumstances.  One exception would be the 4 minute drill.