Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?

[J-ALL-DAY]

This man is going through it lol. Like there are other throws he has thrown with anticipation as seen on those JTO and Daniels breakdowns. But what exactly was wrong with this throw in the first place?

[JIllg]

11 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

This man is going through it lol. Like there are other throws he has thrown with anticipation as seen on those JTO and Daniels breakdowns. But what exactly was wrong with this throw in the first place?

Hey, cognitive balance is hard. The brain filters through information and assigns less weight to that which doesn’t match the outcome that it expected and more to the one that it does. I get that. I don’t think that Ruiz is (only) trolling. But I don’t think that he (or a couple of similar folks) have given any weight to the data points that we think are relevant at all and they will therefore hang on every speck of a data point that proves them right until the man has a ring and is halfway through his second season of excellent play and their position becomes so farcical that they either quiet it to avoid having to fight the same fight over and over again or they make it their personality. It was perfectly fair to wonder over the first couple of weeks if this was sustainable. It’s right to expect that we won’t be an all time offense once pieces are hurt or move and age on. It’s not right to cherry pick individual data points (out of a specific gameplan for a specific opponent) and see them as pure, delicious confirmation. Philly played half the game in fire zone yesterday. It’s a defense that mostly looks to get sacks when the QB and play caller get aggressive and try to take shots by providing maximum pass rush with three deep defenders. However, it only leaves 3 defenders underneath. It’s the opposite of what you’d call against the Jimmy G Shanahan offenses because it would be suicidal against Jimmy G. But Purdy and Shanahan have been deep aerial merchants and it was going to be rough to not gamble, so they chose to die on that hill. And we viciously Jimmy G’d them to death - now with better accuracy and reading of the defense. 

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

This man is going through it lol. Like there are other throws he has thrown with anticipation as seen on those JTO and Daniels breakdowns. But what exactly was wrong with this throw in the first place?

It's not the throw...its Olsen talking about the anticipation and giving him what Ruiz feels is undue credit for the throw. 

I don't even think that Ruiz's biggest problem is with Purdy any more. I think its far more about the love that Purdy gets that Ruiz feels is unwarranted. So he hates everything about Purdy right now

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, Forge said:

It's not the throw...its Olsen talking about the anticipation and giving him what Ruiz feels is undue credit for the throw. 

I don't even think that Ruiz's biggest problem is with Purdy any more. I think its far more about the love that Purdy gets that Ruiz feels is unwarranted. So he hates everything about Purdy right now

Yeah, again maybe anticipation should not have been used here but Purdy is just waiting for the WR to clear Slay enough to throw it to Aiyuk. It was a good throw. Ruiz should be talking about the throw Purdy made to CMC where he was starting to throw it before CMC even made his move.

Ruiz legitimately can't admit he was wrong. He was running victory laps when Purdy struggled late in games and then got ticked that Purdy started to get love again during this four game win streak. What made no sense at all was that he told Mina Kimes that what could change his mind about Purdy in this game is if he makes plays out of the structure....Huh? Purdy can make throws out of structure but why would he need to do that to impress him? That just clearly shows nothing Purdy can do will turn him into a believer. There's a breakdown of Herbert missing throws/reads but Ruiz will never mention anything like that and just brings up the WRs dropping balls....which is valid of course. But he's more impressed in power throws than consistent play by play execution. Like I said, a QB like Purdy will only get respect when he does this for a long stretch and will get more respect later in his career. There's built in excuses already so a large portion of the fans will be taking Ruiz's side. 

[49ersfan]

Random thought; kinda funny that we whiffed on Lance in 2021 but otherwise had a strong draft with Banks, Thomas, Lenoir & Hufanga as solid starters & Mitchell/Moore as solid backups in 2023. And we hit on Purdy in 2022, but other than that...Womack, Davis & Mason have potential as solid backups/rotational pieces but that seems to be it. Burford is a starter but tied with McKivitz as our worst starter on the team. 

 

[757-NINER]

11 hours ago, 49ersfan said:

Random thought; kinda funny that we whiffed on Lance in 2021 but otherwise had a strong draft with Banks, Thomas, Lenoir & Hufanga as solid starters & Mitchell/Moore as solid backups in 2023. And we hit on Purdy in 2022, but other than that...Womack, Davis & Mason have potential as solid backups/rotational pieces but that seems to be it. Burford is a starter but tied with McKivitz as our worst starter on the team. 

 

Drafting Purdy automatically gives that 2022 draft an A+++++++++

Hitting on the most important position in terms of overall team success & relevancy leaves everything else an afterthought.

I honestly can't tell you who was our first pick that year...was it Drake?

Edited December 6, 2023 by 757-NINER

[John232]

15 hours ago, N4L said:

He lost all credibility to me when he said last week that Brock needs to show him that he can get to the 2nd read within the timing of the offense. Just an unbelievably bad take.

I’m listening to the ringer post eagles. Big salt. Said the first two drives where they went 3 and out shows how he can’t win in “must pass situations”.

 

they also kept harping on eagles 3 games in 13 days, unaware the 49ers had 3 games in 14 days 

Edited December 6, 2023 by John232

[JIllg]

5 minutes ago, John232 said:

I’m listening to the ringer post eagles. Big salt. Said the first two drives where they went 3 and out shows how he can’t win in “must pass situations”.

 

they also kept harping on eagles 3 games in 14 days, I wade 49ers had 3 games in 14 days 

It's a good thing that we didn't have to face a bunch of 3 and 5s and 6s and 7s where we had to pass during that run of 6 TDs in a row! Wait a minute... Also, the rest advantage is a real thing. We've felt it here when teams have whole bye weeks to study and prep against our stuff. We've felt how out of it the defense was against the Bengals in particular after all of the rest disadvantage and travel. I get it. It made things more ugly than it would have been.

But the schematic and personnel problems that the Eagles had on defense covering our guys was obvious on film and it was obvious to every advanced metric under the sun that had us being pretty comfortable favorites even on the road. There's a reason why Vegas had us as favorites even though the general public was going to be pretty heavy Eagles in their own house coming off a number of wins. It's because the sharps were all 9ers in that game.

[Forge]

There definitely is a lot of this going on

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

There definitely is a lot of this going on

And the argument has to be about the film because (as I've harped on about) the stats are B-A-N-A-N-A-S. Like, Aaron Rodgers. You might know him. Stupidly good quarterback. 4 MVPs. This season by just about every metric (minus the turnover rate - that's the major Rodgers specialty) is conclusively better statistically than all but Rodgers's absolutely nutty 2011 campaign where he had an awesome collection of weapons and offensive line. Brock's on pace for 4500 yards passing with this efficiency. He's doing it on like 1 or 2 attempts per game less than Rodgers did.

This season looks like the best Montana and Young seasons in terms of completion%, YPA, and other metrics, but with even more efficiency than those guys and they were the efficiency monsters of their time. This offense has broken football. They're scoring 42 points on 8 real possessions on an average defense, y'all. In imperfect conditions. On the road. They took an excellent Cowboys defense and beat them upside the head so hard they gave up before the 4th quarter. The Cowboys are probably the second best team in the NFL (and their offense has gotten better since that point, for sure). It is utterly, beautifully, disgustingly excellent statistically. And statistically, Brock's done it while being even more of a monster in downfield efficiency than he has been in regular efficiency.

About the only stat that isn't sold on Purdy is pff passing grade. That's about it. And they still think he's a good franchise quarterback, just not an MVP. They aren't on the grotesquely absurd lunatic island that Ruiz has chosen for himself.

I don't mind not giving Purdy MVP. Quarterback efficiency and stats are highly tied to situation. Dak has been truly awesome in what is probably worse context than Purdy. Fine choice. But like, to claim that there aren't amazing quarterback seasons happening this year is factually wrong. 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

9 minutes ago, JIllg said:

And the argument has to be about the film because (as I've harped on about) the stats are B-A-N-A-N-A-S. Like, Aaron Rodgers. You might know him. Stupidly good quarterback. 4 MVPs. This season by just about every metric (minus the turnover rate - that's the major Rodgers specialty) is conclusively better statistically than all but Rodgers's absolutely nutty 2011 campaign where he had an awesome collection of weapons and offensive line. Brock's on pace for 4500 yards passing with this efficiency. He's doing it on like 1 or 2 attempts per game less than Rodgers did.

This season looks like the best Montana and Young seasons in terms of completion%, YPA, and other metrics, but with even more efficiency than those guys and they were the efficiency monsters of their time. This offense has broken football. They're scoring 42 points on 8 real possessions on an average defense, y'all. In imperfect conditions. On the road. They took an excellent Cowboys defense and beat them upside the head so hard they gave up before the 4th quarter. The Cowboys are probably the second best team in the NFL (and their offense has gotten better since that point, for sure). It is utterly, beautifully, disgustingly excellent statistically. And statistically, Brock's done it while being even more of a monster in downfield efficiency than he has been in regular efficiency.

About the only stat that isn't sold on Purdy is pff passing grade. That's about it. And they still think he's a good franchise quarterback, just not an MVP. They aren't on the grotesquely absurd lunatic island that Ruiz has chosen for himself.

I don't mind not giving Purdy MVP. Quarterback efficiency and stats are highly tied to situation. Dak has been truly awesome in what is probably worse context than Purdy. Fine choice. But like, to claim that there aren't amazing quarterback seasons happening this year is factually wrong. 

This is a really good, well thought out post.  It's amazing what Brock is doing right now.  The 9ers are such a well oiled machine with great coaching, it is a reasonable argument to say that no one person has a case to be the most valuable in the league.  

That being said, lets take a moment to look at the term Value itself.  Value  generally refers to what you get for dollars spent.  For the amount the team pays Purdy there is no better value in the NFL.  So in this regard, Purdy is clearly and unquestionably the Most Valuable Player in the NFL. 

[typecast]

15 hours ago, John232 said:

they also kept harping on eagles 3 games in 13 days, unaware the 49ers had 3 games in 14 days 

Teams play 3 in 14 all the time. That's just your standard (non-bye) Sun-Whatever-Sun 3-game window.

The Eagles have had Mon-Sun-Sun (13 days) twice this season.

• After only THU game (week 2). at TB (9/25), vs WAS (10/1), at LAR (10/8) (Lost at NYJ on 10/15)
• After their week 10 bye. at KC (11/20), vs BUF (11/26), vs SF (12/3)

Sun-Sun-Thu is 11. We had two of those.

• Start of the season. at PIT (9/10), at LAR (9/17), vs NYG (9/21)
• After the week 9 bye. at JAX (11/12), vs TB (11/19), at SEA (11/23)

We end the season with a Mon-Sun-Sun.

• vs BAL (12/25), at WAS (12/31), vs LAR (1/7)

Edited December 7, 2023 by typecast

[TecmoSuperJoe]

On 12/6/2023 at 8:04 AM, J-ALL-DAY said:

This man is going through it lol. Like there are other throws he has thrown with anticipation as seen on those JTO and Daniels breakdowns. But what exactly was wrong with this throw in the first place?

I'm guessing it's because Samuel was breaking free on a clearing route, and Purdy either didn't see him, or didn't think he could throw the ball far enough for the potential TD so he instead went to Aiyuk. JTO spotlighted this point on his breakdown, but even said he was being super-nitpicky about the entire thing. 

Anyway, Ruiz is just being an ignorant doofus. 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

3 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

I'm guessing it's because Samuel was breaking free on a clearing route, and Purdy either didn't see him, or didn't think he could throw the ball far enough for the potential TD so he instead went to Aiyuk. JTO spotlighted this point on his breakdown, but even said he was being super-nitpicky about the entire thing. 

Anyway, Ruiz is just being an ignorant doofus. 

It is a high low read on the corner with help from the deep center third zone.  The 1 read is the in.  The in is there until it isn't.  If the in is there, then the QB hits it.  The corner played it deep enough to still force a perfect throw on the in.   The throw was perfect.  It's not a bad read, as the throw to the sideline with Deebo running a clear route toward the center of the field may not have hit.

Also, we don't really know if Deebo was actually in the progression or if he was just trying to run a true clear route.

[John232]

It’s really clear just listening the mvp conversation of almost like sports rhetorical devices. 
 

fwiw I think Dak has a better case right now. But people like Robert Mays and Ruiz have to spin up hypotheticals that will never happen, to be convinced. 
 

there’s also a lot of revisionism. A lot of “but Jimmy did just as well in games with CMC and then stinks in Oakland, would Brock too??”

 

no trust when 49er fans say he’s miles ahead of Jimmy at his best