The MVP race

[Nobellythrower]

Lamar is the favorite so stats don't matter but he has 4000 total yards, and 20 total touchdowns, 8th in qbr , top 10 in passer rating

 

Mvp is most valuable 

did the ravens not lose jk dobbins, keaton mitchell, his no.1 target mark andrews,  it usually goes to the one of the two qbs on the two best team in the nfl , lamar outplayed purdy

 

It's simple 

[Soko]

I’ll preface this with I don’t really have a solid argument for any candidate, thus I don’t really feel all that confident about any given choice.

But Lamar wasn’t even a top 3-5 candidate for most people a few days ago, now he’s #1? Even if we wanted to weigh one game so heavily - that game was a lot more about the Ravens defense forcing mistakes and taking advantage of opportunities vs the SF offense than anything else.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Soko said:

I’ll preface this with I don’t really have a solid argument for any candidate, thus I don’t really feel all that confident about any given choice.

But Lamar wasn’t even a top 3-5 candidate for most people a few days ago, now he’s #1? Even if we wanted to weigh one game so heavily - that game was a lot more about the Ravens defense forcing mistakes and taking advantage of opportunities vs the SF offense than anything else.

People were just cycling through candidates while Purdy was at the top. I referenced it earlier in the week, but CBS had a power ranking where they jumped Lamar from 5 to 1 after Dak had his bad game against the Bills and it made no sense to me. Seemed more like an anti purdy move than anything. 

But I really don't have any issues with Lamar as the MVP. I still think that if Josh Allen gets Buffalo back to the 2 seed, he's going to win it, but I think that's the only way he does it. 

And eventually, the MVP is going to go with someone without the best stats. It'll be like Taylor Hall winning the Hart trophy the year he did it. His team barely squeaked in the playoffs, he only finished 6th in scoring, but he was definitely deserving of the award. 

[jonnguy2015]

I know the MVP is a narrative award more than anything else, and going 0-4 and losing on the final Monday night game of the game will all but destroy his chances, but even after yesterday if it were up to statistics only the numbers are still there for Purdy:

• 3rd in completion percentage at 68.8%, behind Tua at 70.5% and Kirk at 69.5%
• 2nd in passing yards at 4050, behind Tua at 4214
• 1st in yards per attempt at 9.7, a full 1.2 yards ahead of Tua at 8.5
• 2nd in TD passes at 29, behind Dak at 30
• 1st in TD% at 7.0, a full 1.2% ahead of Russ, Dak, and Kirk at 5.8%
• 1st in passer rating at 112.2, ahead of Tua at 105.4

He also gets to play the 31st and 22nd ranked passing defenses to close out the year. Unfortunately for him, he probably needed to maintain 2004 Peyton/2011 Rodgers levels of efficiency to get it, which isn't happening now.

Edited December 26, 2023 by jonnguy2015

[diamondbull424]

6 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

You literally said Tyreek is the Dolphins top weapon every game lol

There's no strawman

No. I literally said, “Tyreek is the biggest threat night in and night out” which is true. Or do you think defenses playing Miami are game planning to stop Mostert over Tyreek? How about Waddle and Achane over Tyreek? Hill has more explosive plays than all three combined. What is the argument for him not being their top threat game in and game out?

I never once stated he didn’t have talented offensive contemporaries, but his contemporaries are further away from him as a threat to defenses than CMC’s contemporaries are for him.

[diamondbull424]

32 minutes ago, Soko said:

I’ll preface this with I don’t really have a solid argument for any candidate, thus I don’t really feel all that confident about any given choice.

But Lamar wasn’t even a top 3-5 candidate for most people a few days ago, now he’s #1? Even if we wanted to weigh one game so heavily - that game was a lot more about the Ravens defense forcing mistakes and taking advantage of opportunities vs the SF offense than anything else.

Not sure where this is coming from.

Lamar hasn’t come out of no where, he’s been top 5 in MVP odds since week 8 of the season and has been FTMP one of the most consistent names listed in the top 3-5 names.

It went from Mahomes, Hurts, and Tua to then flipping to Dak, Purdy, and Lamar being the top 3 in the race.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/nfl-mvp-odds-football-futures-betting-analysis-bm06/

[Soko]

6 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Not sure where this is coming from.

See: the thread you’re posting in. 

More mentions of CMC than Lamar over the last two weeks.

[BroncoSojia]

Just to show how dumb the MVP race is this year, if Buffalo doesn't have a 12 man penalty against the Broncos and if their defense doesn't allow a game winning drive to Mac Jones, Josh Allen is probably the MVP front runner and he had nothing to do with either of those situations.

[Nabbs4u]

16 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

Just to show how dumb the MVP race is this year, if Buffalo doesn't have a 12 man penalty against the Broncos and if their defense doesn't allow a game winning drive to Mac Jones, Josh Allen is probably the MVP front runner and he had nothing to do with either of those situations.

There's a saying for this kind of post

"If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas" 

[diamondbull424]

On 12/19/2023 at 9:34 PM, Manny/Patrick said:

The NFL world wants Purdy to pull a Delhomme and throw 5 picks and go into irrelevance

Wow… this was quite prophetic in a sense.

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

You literally said Tyreek is the Dolphins top weapon every game lol

There's no strawman

No. I literally said, “Tyreek is the biggest threat night in and night out” which is true

Oh, thanks for the clarification lol

[diamondbull424]

37 minutes ago, Soko said:

See: the thread you’re posting in. 

More mentions of CMC than Lamar over the last two weeks.

I have. Lamar has been mentioned. And prior to this game Purdy seemed to be the person most considered to be the MVP above CMC.

Lamar was mainly not considered because he doesn’t have the bulk stats, however his 24 TDs has closed the gap with some of the other guys and his total yards is right in line with most others now. So outside of Josh Allen, no one really has a better argument for MVP than Lamar… and as I’ve said for weeks now, I think Josh Allen is the MVP over some of the other names mentioned.

But will Allen win it as a wildcard over what could be the #1 seed in the NFL? Idk. I think if Lamar hits 30 total touchdowns, the Ravens get the 1 seed, and he doesn’t implode, the award is his.

However if Allen gets the #2 seed, he likely is the MVP outside of him also going nuclear (in a bad way) and his defense carrying him through in said wins.

Edited December 26, 2023 by diamondbull424

[Soko]

2 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I have. Lamar has been mentioned. And prior to this game Purdy seemed to be the person most considered to be the MVP above CMC.

Lamar has been mentioned, but he’s been mentioned even less than CMC. A couple weeks ago it was a dead heat between Dak/Hurts, and then Dak took the clear lead. Purdy was a distant third. Dak loses a game, then Purdy became the clear favorite. Hardly any mentions of Lamar. Now Purdy loses, and Lamar (and Allen) are front runners. 

Meh. It happens every year, to an extent, but usually by now it’s a two horse race. Speaks to the weakness of the candidates for 2023. 

[Soggust]

2 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I have. Lamar has been mentioned. And prior to this game Purdy seemed to be the person most considered to be the MVP above CMC.

Lamar was mainly not considered because he doesn’t have the bulk stats, however his 24 TDs has closed the gap with some of the other guys and his total yards is right in line with most others now. So outside of Josh Allen, no one really has a better argument for MVP than Lamar… and as I’ve said for weeks now, I think Josh Allen is the MVP over some of the other names mentioned.

But will Allen win it as a wildcard over what could be the #1 seed in the NFL? Idk. I think if Lamar hits 30 total touchdowns, the Ravens get the 1 seed, and he doesn’t implode, the award is his.

However if Allen gets the #2 seed, he likely is the MVP outside of him also going nuclear (in a bad way) and his defense carrying him through in said wins.

I realize that what I'm about to say is utopic and not reality, but as a neutral voter- I think I still like Dak + Purdy over Lamar. 

Brock Purdy    11-4 w/l | 68.8 cmp | 4,190 totYards | 9.7 ypa | 31 td : 13 to | 112.2 rtg
Dak Prescott   10-5 w/l | 68.4 cmp | 4,129 totYards | 7.5 ypa | 32 td :  9 to | 104.2 rtg
Tua Tagovailoa 11-4 w/l | 70.5 cmp | 4,267 totYards | 8.5 ypa | 26 td : 15 to | 105.4 rtg
Lamar Jackson  12-3 w/l | 66.3 cmp | 4,143 totYards | 7.7 ypa | 24 td : 13 to |  97.2 rtg
Josh Allen      9-6 w/l | 66.5 cmp | 4,191 totYards | 7.4 ypa | 40 td : 18 to |  93.7 rtg
Jared Goff     11-4 w/l | 67.7 cmp | 4,005 totYards | 7.4 ypa | 29 td : 14 to |  98.3 rtg
Jalen Hurts    11-4 w/l | 65.5 cmp | 4,212 totYards | 7.3 ypa | 35 td : 18 to |  89.6 rtg

I don't believe that playing poorly vs good teams is worse than slipping up against bad teams. I don't believe that losing later in the year should be worse than the beginning of the year. To me, it's the entirety of the season and everything should be evaluated evenly at the end. And with that logic, Brock and Dak are still significantly ahead, although I do think the record + support arguments bring Lamar into the the discussion at #3 for me.

But I do realize I'm in the minority on this and Lamar is the clear favorite at this point.

[AngusMcFife]

On 12/11/2023 at 9:03 AM, adamq said:

Speaking of Lamar, is he getting slept on in this conversation? The Ravens are the 1 seed and his weapons are now Gus Edwards, OBJ, Nelson Agholar and some rookies...

 

On 12/11/2023 at 9:07 AM, AngusMcFife said:

If the Ravens beat the Jags, 49ers, and Dolphins in the next 3 weeks to get the 1 seed with Lamar playing well, and Dallas loses another game, I could see the case for Lamar. That's pretty improbable, though. 

 

On 12/11/2023 at 10:10 AM, Art_Vandalay said:

I think yesterday's game should definitely propel him to the front of the line. Their defense has been really good this year but not yesterday. They needed him to play like an MVP yesterday and he did just that.

And your point about weapons is spot-on. I'd be surprised if any of those skill players are even Pro Bowl Alternates. The entire offense - rushing and passing - runs through Lamar.

 

On 12/11/2023 at 10:14 AM, notthatbluestuff said:

Ravens @ Niners on MNF Week 16 could be pivotal.

 

On 12/11/2023 at 11:21 AM, ninjapirate said:

Should be Lamar at this point 

 

On 12/11/2023 at 11:27 AM, Forge said:

Dak, Purdy, Lamar after this last week. Or Dak, Lamar, Purdy. Doesn't really matter where the second and third guys are. 

@Soko