2023 GDT Week #8 Steelers host the Jaguars

[43M]

28 minutes ago, JustPlainNasty said:

 

Trevor Lawrence 1st 17 starts 

359 Comp 602 Att  59.63 comp % 3641 yds  12 TD 17 INT  6.05 Yds/ ATT  71.9 Rate  32 Sacks  73 Car 334 Yds 2 TDS 5 Fumbles Lost

Kenny Pickett  1st 18.5 games (18 starts) 

357 Comp 573 Att  62.30 comp% 3661 yds 12 TD 13 INT 6.39 Yds / ATT  78.2 Rate 43 Sacks 79 Car 249 Yds 4 TD 1 Fumble Lost 

(Its a little too much work to calculate the rates for either adding a game to Trevor or taking away for Kenny so I just used the comparison above with ready stats. )

 

The reason I bring this up is not to say they are the same or really comparable, but I honestly think Kenny seems to get more scrutiny, and has pretty much his entire pro career thus far than even most highly drafted rookies, and those same players 1 year into their careers. There were and still are a lot of excuses and exceptions made for Trevor Lawrence his rookie year and to this point in his career and very similar for many others that Kenny doesn't seem to get that same forgiveness. Its like people hated him about the hands thing and haven't let off yet (NFL fans in general not just Steelers doubters). Its kind of baffling to me for somebody that has been scouting and following prospects for so long. I'd swear Kenny was the #1 overall pick and that he abused puppies or something. Im humored every day by the need of random fans  and ESPN general mgrs that never drafted one successful qb to declare him a bust or non franchise QB every day. Im sorry to tell you that a bust at #20 in the draft doesn't do any of what Kenny has done over the 1st season of his career, not even close. Busts in the top 10 usually dont have as much success as Kenny has had already throughout their careers. 

Most Steelers fans that weren't on board with Kenny either wanted Malik Willis or Desmond Ridder.  I saw reason to consider Ridder, but Willis was kind of a joke and thats not after the fact. Thats when you know people/media watch highlight tapes and not games. Im still waiting to see the prospect that wows you with his physical ability that couldn't demonstrate he could complete the necessary tasks for the position on a somewhat regular basis that would translate to the NFL. At any position really. Willis could possibly be something some day but he was no where near remotely translating to the league or showed any ability to play the position as it would have to be played in the NFL. He was a running back with a good arm. 

We all know Willis had shown so little that his team went ahead and drafted another qb of similar style and issues 53 spots higher in the draft the following year. 

Desmond Ridder after 11 games 

222 Att 343 Comp  64.72 Comp %  2238 yds  8 TD 6 INT 6.50 Yds/ATT 84.9 Rate 29 Sacks 42 Car 177 yds 3 TD  7 Fumbles Lost. Ridder had a of location accuracy issues at Cincy, obviously thats not the same as general accuracy stats. 

 

As long as Kenny keeps showing growth with this young offense and rebuilding line (that was pretty bad) there really shouldn't be that much scrutiny. The two main things that he has to work on is getting the ball out quick and the scrambling for no reason. Ive seen it said by some where he bails from pressure, not necessarily..he more so bails when he sees flashes of pressure is the real issue and it seems like a lot of time his back pedal /set up takes him to a side or on an angle  rather than straight back and his set up spot put him in an appearance of pressure  ..he also thinks he needs to "create" when he just needs to get rid of the ball. Its things hes gonna grow to understand and learn with experience and time. 

 

 

 

 

And dumping a terrible coach is what helped Lawrence turn it around.  Hmm...

Ive not completely given up on KP, but keeping Canada this year was easily one of the dumbest coaching/personnel mistakes Ive seen this team ever make, largely in part because I feel it really interferes with his POTENTIAL development.    

Do I think we’d find some wizard that would make him look elite?   No....but I feel like we’d have a better idea of what Kenny offers going into next season.    As of right now, I just see the same extremely inconsistent guy who has shown some late game heroics.   Perhaps he could become something more and perhaps he WILL....but Id be lying if I said I was optimistic.

I have this bad feeling we may overachieve and maybe even win a playoff game depending who we face....and Canada will be here another year, despite the offense and Kenny being mediocre.

Edited October 26, 2023 by 43M

[August4th]

Steelers let arains and Haley go after solid offensive years.. I think(Hope) the same will happen with Matt. my concern is can they hire a decent guy to replace him? 

[jebrick]

4 hours ago, JustPlainNasty said:

 

Trevor Lawrence 1st 17 starts 

359 Comp 602 Att  59.63 comp % 3641 yds  12 TD 17 INT  6.05 Yds/ ATT  71.9 Rate  32 Sacks  73 Car 334 Yds 2 TDS 5 Fumbles Lost

Kenny Pickett  1st 18.5 games (18 starts) 

357 Comp 573 Att  62.30 comp% 3661 yds 12 TD 13 INT 6.39 Yds / ATT  78.2 Rate 43 Sacks 79 Car 249 Yds 4 TD 1 Fumble Lost 

(Its a little too much work to calculate the rates for either adding a game to Trevor or taking away for Kenny so I just used the comparison above with ready stats. )

 

The reason I bring this up is not to say they are the same or really comparable, but I honestly think Kenny seems to get more scrutiny, and has pretty much his entire pro career thus far than even most highly drafted rookies, and those same players 1 year into their careers. There were and still are a lot of excuses and exceptions made for Trevor Lawrence his rookie year and to this point in his career and very similar for many others that Kenny doesn't seem to get that same forgiveness. Its like people hated him about the hands thing and haven't let off yet (NFL fans in general not just Steelers doubters). Its kind of baffling to me for somebody that has been scouting and following prospects for so long. I'd swear Kenny was the #1 overall pick and that he abused puppies or something. Im humored every day by the need of random fans  and ESPN general mgrs that never drafted one successful qb to declare him a bust or non franchise QB every day. Im sorry to tell you that a bust at #20 in the draft doesn't do any of what Kenny has done over the 1st season of his career, not even close. Busts in the top 10 usually dont have as much success as Kenny has had already throughout their careers. 

Most Steelers fans that weren't on board with Kenny either wanted Malik Willis or Desmond Ridder.  I saw reason to consider Ridder, but Willis was kind of a joke and thats not after the fact. Thats when you know people/media watch highlight tapes and not games. Im still waiting to see the prospect that wows you with his physical ability that couldn't demonstrate he could complete the necessary tasks for the position on a somewhat regular basis that would translate to the NFL. At any position really. Willis could possibly be something some day but he was no where near remotely translating to the league or showed any ability to play the position as it would have to be played in the NFL. He was a running back with a good arm. 

We all know Willis had shown so little that his team went ahead and drafted another qb of similar style and issues 53 spots higher in the draft the following year. 

Desmond Ridder after 11 games 

222 Att 343 Comp  64.72 Comp %  2238 yds  8 TD 6 INT 6.50 Yds/ATT 84.9 Rate 29 Sacks 42 Car 177 yds 3 TD  7 Fumbles Lost. Ridder had a of location accuracy issues at Cincy, obviously thats not the same as general accuracy stats. 

 

As long as Kenny keeps showing growth with this young offense and rebuilding line (that was pretty bad) there really shouldn't be that much scrutiny. The two main things that he has to work on is getting the ball out quick and the scrambling for no reason. Ive seen it said by some where he bails from pressure, not necessarily..he more so bails when he sees flashes of pressure is the real issue and it seems like a lot of time his back pedal /set up takes him to a side or on an angle  rather than straight back and his set up spot put him in an appearance of pressure  ..he also thinks he needs to "create" when he just needs to get rid of the ball. Its things hes gonna grow to understand and learn with experience and time. 

 

 

 

 

TL was 21 when he was drafted.  He had a lot of room to grow.  KP was 25 when he was drafted.  He is about a finished product.  TL was showing amazing skills all three years he played in college.  KP had 4 years of crap and one magic year ( all in the same system).

 

The draft thought on Willis is the gamble he could develop into a QB as he has the tools ( minus the accuracy).  He had a much higher ceiling at draft time then KP(High Ceiling /Low Floor).  KP was a classic High Floor/low ceiling pick. He is safe.  You generally do not take those players in the 1st round especially QBs.  Ridder was another High Floor/Low Ceiling pick but had shown a lower ceiling than Pickett.

 

All of this is to say why players get rated like they do in the draft.  I root for KP to do well.  He does have big brass kahongas when you need to put the game on his shoulders and that can't be taught but comparing him to TL is wrong.  Garner Mishew is a better comparison.

[JustPlainNasty]

4 hours ago, jebrick said:

TL was 21 when he was drafted.  He had a lot of room to grow.  KP was 25 when he was drafted.  He is about a finished product.  TL was showing amazing skills all three years he played in college.  KP had 4 years of crap and one magic year ( all in the same system).

 

The draft thought on Willis is the gamble he could develop into a QB as he has the tools ( minus the accuracy).  He had a much higher ceiling at draft time then KP(High Ceiling /Low Floor).  KP was a classic High Floor/low ceiling pick. He is safe.  You generally do not take those players in the 1st round especially QBs.  Ridder was another High Floor/Low Ceiling pick but had shown a lower ceiling than Pickett.

 

All of this is to say why players get rated like they do in the draft.  I root for KP to do well.  He does have big brass kahongas when you need to put the game on his shoulders and that can't be taught but comparing him to TL is wrong.  Garner Mishew is a better comparison.

Kenny Pickett is in his second year in the NFL, at the moment he is 25 years old and really just turned 25. He was born on June 6, 1998 ...This is the type of misinformation Im talking about. 

Trevor Lawrence had a great team around him in college. While he had a strong arm , his best attribute was his running ability, cause it definitely wasn't accuracy or anticipation throws. He had the experience in college similar to almost 3 pro years with high level college playoff competition each year, so his game and experience maturity for the pros should be awfully high and that is/was definitely a plus in his evaluation.  Trevor started 40 games in his college career, Kenny started just 10 more with 50, and if you ask me it was extremely wise for him to go back after the covid year. The game experience is what matters, maturity in age usually helps with not doing the other stupid things in life and probably relating a little better. Trevor was actually born in June 10, 1999, so hes almost exactly 1 year younger than KP. Its actually far far more common for players to be drafted at age 22 & 23 than it is 21. We're not talking about a 29 year old Brandon Weeden who still sucked when he was drafted and need to learn and develop in the pros another gimmick prospect. Cleveland drafted him at #22 omg. 

Talking about drafting Willis in the 1st round was akin to drafting a guy from another position or a track guy in the 1st round.  I remember in here I got flack because I said I would draft Jordan Milata in the 7th round maybe as high as the 5th round because you don't find that type of athleticism in a human being his size. There is HUGE difference between taking a project in the mid to later rounds than using it in the first or even second rounds and especially at QB.  I had no issue with the Titans taking him in the 3rd and it was a decent value, similar to how I felt this year about us taking Washington in the 3rd. He wasn't my top choice nor did I value him anywhere near the 1st or 2nd vs what else was available but in the late 3rd his value was strong regardless of whether he ever catches a pass or not and even I was saying you have to grab him at that point. 

Also Willis' issue is not just accuracy, he never learned how to play the game as a qb that would translate to the pros, he was more akin to Johnny Manziel minus the antics. 

The point of my comparison was about scrutiny of a 1st year player, and we just happen to be playing a recent one that struggled in his 1st and 2nd years and while there is expected scrutiny for a #1 overall pick he was given a lot of leniency vs what Kenny has and still receives. It had nothing to do with style. Im not sure how or why Gardner Minshew is relevant ? 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by JustPlainNasty

[jebrick]

I compare him to Garner Minshew because their talent level and arm strength are about the same.  KP is not even in the same plane as Lawrence in terms of talent and arm strength.   

 

You perceive KP's  scrutiny because the Steeler fans are all over him.  Do you not think that TL got the same from the Jag fans?  TL gets way more grief than KP because he was the #1 pick and people had high hopes for him.  Just Steeler fans have high regard for KP.  There is no team or fan group ( other than perhaps the Titans) that wishes they had KP.  We Steeler fans hope he can turn it around with better play calling/OC.

You bring up Willis and Ridder and I just pointed out their draft ranking.  Teams draft boom/bust players all the time.  They draft boom/bust QBs even higher than any other position.  Josh Allen, Trey Lance, Will Levis, Drew Lock, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson.  All were considered boom/bust.  All are taken high because the payoff if you can fix them they you have a franchise QB.  

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, JustPlainNasty said:

The point of my comparison was about scrutiny of a 1st year player, and we just happen to be playing a recent one that struggled in his 1st and 2nd years and while there is expected scrutiny for a #1 overall pick he was given a lot of leniency vs what Kenny has and still receives.

It just boils down to expectations vs their profiles. Lawrence was a top tier prospect. Someone who's ceiling is around the top two tiers in the league for QBs. Kenny was, at best, considered a middle of the road prospect compared to the likes of Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinicke, and Derek Carr. I, personally, can't put him above 9th in his own conference and think that's likely go down based on Stroud, Richardson, and the incoming draft class. 

Through Trevor struggled, you always knew what the ceiling was and how significant it could be. Kenny might be at his floor, but the expectation of his ceiling is a two story building. Kenny has been exposed to A LOT of football. I don't as much care about the age but the fact that he was the starting quarterback for 49 games across FIVE seasons. There are just a lot of things that if he was going to be better at, he probably would be by now. Tiger's don't change their stripes that much and Kenny was a really average tiger panther through the vast majority of his college career. 

On a per game basis, look at Lawrence's first 6 games of year 2 and Kenny's. Lawrence jumped ahead (7 points in completion%, doubled TD/game, and decreased INT/game from 1 to .07). Kenny took steps backwards (-2 in completion%, .05 to .08 TD/game, and kept the same .07 INT rate). The Jags averaged 23 points of offense through the first 6 and the Steelers average 14.5. In year 2, Lawrences on target throw % went up and his off-target % went down. Kenny did the opposite. 

I just don't think it's that hard to understand why Kenny gets scrutinized more so than a Trevor Lawrence after a season of struggle. Kenny wasn't a great prospect, took a step back so far, leads an offense that has scored less points, and became more off-target while playing with the same players in the same offense. 

[Steeler Hitman]

20 hours ago, 3rivers said:

still would prefer a trade for Surtain and get it over with . Porter and Surtain - set for the next 7 years at  CB1 and CB2, done, thanks and next. 

Levi has been close but a step off, and that could be just the reality of loss of speed and age.  Too bad because he was good last year. 

For this to happen it would take a Minkah type of signing.  Surtan will also be looking to get paid as well. I believe that the Steelers still have the highest defensive payroll in the NFL.  We would lose potential players on a rookie contract for four or five years and then have to add to the defensive payroll. While I would like to have Surtan, I am not sure this is doable. 

I would look to get Jaylen Johnson from the Bears.  While not Surtan, he is solid. He is also young, and should not cause us to have to mortgage the farm to resign another defensive player.  We have a history with the Bears and hopefully, something similar to last season can be arranged. 

[3rivers]

2 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

For this to happen it would take a Minkah type of signing.  Surtan will also be looking to get paid as well. I believe that the Steelers still have the highest defensive payroll in the NFL.  We would lose potential players on a rookie contract for four or five years and then have to add to the defensive payroll. While I would like to have Surtan, I am not sure this is doable. 

I would look to get Jaylen Johnson from the Bears.  While not Surtan, he is solid. He is also young, and should not cause us to have to mortgage the farm to resign another defensive player.  We have a history with the Bears and hopefully, something similar to last season can be arranged. 

Johnson from the Bears has been mentioned as well, and if he is good, then go for it. Next year Trice will be back and then maybe Rush. If they draft another, thats all the better

what do you think of the Steelers being the fave to land Hopkins?  

[Steeler Hitman]

Just now, 3rivers said:

Johnson from the Bears has been mentioned as well, and if he is good, then go for it. Next year Trice will be back and then maybe Rush. If they draft another, thats all the better

They could use a more consistent CB for sure. JPJ is trending upward and I like the young guys that are in the wings as well. Unfoertunatley, they probably offer little or nothing on the field (Trice on season long IR).  Starting JPP, trading for an upgrade at CB for Wallace and probaly moving Patrick Pete to slot (instead of Sullivan) should help on the back end.

what do you think of the Steelers being the fave to land Hopkins?  

I don't know if I really believe that. I hear the Steelers attached to (top five to land) every player that seems to be available.  Personally, I would not do it. I am fine with our core of receivers (Johnson, Pickens, Austin, and Robinson).  I would prefer Hopkins to Robinson, but we have Robinson, so there is no need to bring another WR in (in my opinion).  We could use a starting caliber CB, Center, Interior DL, and truthfully a good SS so Minkah could go back to his natural position. Certainly not going to get all of that by the trade deadline. 

[August4th]

looking ahead. looks like we'll play a rookie QB on a short week against Tennessee next week. we can find ourselves in a really good spot with a win Sunday. 

[Steeler Hitman]

13 hours ago, August4th said:

looking ahead. looks like we'll play a rookie QB on a short week against Tennessee next week. we can find ourselves in a really good spot with a win Sunday. 

Let's take this one game at a time. We have not beaten Jacksonville in Pittsburgh since 2011. As far as rookie QBs. How did we do against the last one in Texas? 🤐😡

@ August4th, this team definitely can't look ahead or think that they can stack wins against anyone at this point. I am not being a hater or being negative, we have been burned by thinking this way before.  I want to see these guys play four quarters of football in all phases. I have not seen that in quite some time. A win is a win, but the Steelers don't typically do it the conventional way. 

Ironically, in my pre-season prediction, I had them optimistically at 4-2 and realistically at 3-3.  Optimistically, I had them losing to San Fran and the Ravens.  Realistically, I had them also losing to the Raiders or Rams.  They don't typically play as predicted.  I am longing to see this team put together four good quarters of football on offense, defense, coaching, and special teams.  They have had bits and pieces or combinations of some, but not all.  I think this team has the potential to be better than average, but to take the next step, they have to play four quarters and start being consistent in all phases week in and week out. 

And this is not to say, that I don't expect some bad games, etc. It is hard to play great or perfect every week, but it is not hard to play hard every week. If they play hard every week in all phases, they can string some wins together. I will be happy of they turn the trend of success that the Jaguars have had with the Steelers in Pittsburgh since 2011. 

[43M]

20 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

ItOn a per game basis, look at Lawrence's first 6 games of year 2 and Kenny's. Lawrence jumped ahead (7 points in completion%, doubled TD/game, and decreased INT/game from 1 to .07). Kenny took steps backwards (-2 in completion%, .05 to .08 TD/game, and kept the same .07 INT rate). The Jags averaged 23 points of offense through the first 6 and the Steelers average 14.5. In year 2, Lawrences on target throw % went up and his off-target % went down. Kenny did the opposite. 

I just don't think it's that hard to understand why Kenny gets scrutinized more so than a Trevor Lawrence after a season of struggle. Kenny wasn't a great prospect, took a step back so far, leads an offense that has scored less points, and became more off-target while playing with the same players in the same offense. 

I agree with most of what you said....but its gotta be pointed out that Trevor Lawrence's 2nd year improvements also came after an obviously needefd coaching change.

Would Lawrence have improved the way he did if Urban Meyer stuck around?    Would Kenny have shown more improvement we had made a similar coaching change?

Lawrence was obviously the superior talent, but he also proved how much coaching can help and hurt players.

[warfelg]

Regarding the Lawrence/Pickett conversation, and I know someone will roll their eyes at this, but so much of what was done under a previous GM was about high floor. “Just make the playoffs.” That’s a phrase that existed a ton late in that era. This is what that looks like after some time. 

[Steeler Hitman]

21 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

I just don't think it's that hard to understand why Kenny gets scrutinized more so than a Trevor Lawrence after a season of struggle.

Let's also not forget that Pickett just finished playing his 17 NFL game before the bye. Technically, he is 18 games in and that's not including time missed for injuries. It taes these guys time to develop. As much as we want plug and play, it realistically doesn't work that way. You can do a solid job of surrounding your young QB with weapons and a good system (see Brock Perdie).  These guys are going to face adversity and how they grow and respond from that is key.  That is what I like about Pickett, he has character and while he is struggling, he keeps competing and not complaining. He is light years ahead of Big Ben in terms of maturity and ladership at the same age. 

Kenny wasn't a great prospect, took a step back so far, leads an offense that has scored less points, and became more off-target while playing with the same players in the same offense. W

We also have to look at WHY?  Is it his lack of growth/in game devlopment? Yes, In part. 

Is it because the offensive line has been butt ugly and he has no semblence of a consistent rushing attack game in and game out? Yes, in a larger part.

Is it because the OC does not consistently put him in positions to succeed? Yes, probably one of the a largest components. Kenny has also played behind the yard markers for most of this season. It was humiliating against really good defenses like the 49'ers and Browns. The Texans rode this formula and humiliated the Steelers offense. We got away with some things against the Raiders, Ravens, and Rams.  We don't consistently play action pass. We aren't under center enough, we don't utilize the middle of the field, and we act like the TE is an ineligible receiver. None of this helps your young QB.

To a lesser extent, we also found out how valuable Dionte' Johnson really is to this offense. I know it was one game, but he made a huge difference. 

We defintely missed him.

 

10 minutes ago, 43M said:

I agree with most of what you said....but its gotta be pointed out that Trevor Lawrence's 2nd year improvements also came after an obviously neede for a coaching change.

I also think that they did no favors to Trevor throwing him in there. early A lot of these young guys need some time to develop, but owners and fans will say, you got drafted #1, so you should be ready. You can't microwave everyone's development. He was young and would have benefitted sitting like the Chiefs did Mahomes.  

Would Lawrence have improved the way he did if Urban Meyer stuck around?   

Bad fit in the culture under Coach Urban. The team and overall culture had gone to the dogs so too speak. College and the NFL are a lot different.  I don't think his talents fully come out because the rest of the team dynamic.  

Would Kenny have shown more improvement we had made a similar coaching change?

I am fully on the let Matt Canada go train.  I have tickett in hand and waiting for the cunductor to punch a hole in it.  However, as I stated early in the year, you can't under-estimate the poor play of the OL.  He has not had a full game of their support all season. Is it not a coincidence that his play has gone down with poor run blocking and pass blocking? Throw in the fact that his most veteran WR was hurt early in the season. The offense is struggling, but it isn't all Kenny and OC Canada. Both have their share, but the OL play has been abysmal for most of the year. 

I understand why they kepy Matt Canada, but it was probably not the best decision in hindsight to this point.  Either way, I think they move on from him after this season. I have been saying that Kenny needs a support system like the 49'ers have with Brock (rushing attack and strong defense).  Big Ben had this early in his career as well. 

Lawrence was obviously the superior talent, but he also proved how much coaching can help and hurt players.

I would tend to agree with you here.

 

[43M]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

Regarding the Lawrence/Pickett conversation, and I know someone will roll their eyes at this, but so much of what was done under a previous GM was about high floor. “Just make the playoffs.” That’s a phrase that existed a ton late in that era. This is what that looks like after some time. 

Seems like after Devin Bush, they changed their views on drafting boom/bust guys early.   Before, they didnt have a problem doing it....even though Im surprised Artie Burns didnt incite that fear sooner. 

That being said....Im not sure how high Kenny's floor was.    Sure, he had the highest floor of any QB in his respective draft class, but for a first round QB, I felt like his "range" was pretty underwhelming.    I said if everything went perfectly, I felt he could possibly be a more clutch version of Tony Romo, but I always felt like his LIKELY RANGE was low end Mitch Trubisky (which IMO, is kinda about where he is now) to high end Alex Smith or Derek Carr.

Either way....was never a fan of him as a first round pick, and Ive yet to be fed crow....and believe me, I will gladly eat every last bit if he proves me wrong.