Draft Discussion 2.0

[Dogbite]

7 minutes ago, dawgpound1816 said:

He did, and he also had to replace players as their contracts were to expire. That's the other reason I brought up McGlinchey in the crazy draft I posted. Eric Fisher was drafted when their OL was still put together. Just like the Mahomes pick. He knew cap hell was coming, so he made the moves the year before to sustain competition and continous growth

I don't know about you but I want nothing to do with sustaining what we have right now. If Dorsey comes in here drafting to keep status quo I just might smother myself in something smelly and take a long walk into the allegany mountains to let a bear eat me. Honestly is sounds more fun to me than watching another Cameron Erving pick because we might lose Alex Mack. Screw that crap that is exactly why Mack wanted out. Draft to improve the team and win games and guys like Mack will want to stay.

[Kathouse Sticks]

If I didn’t know better, I’d think some of you guys want Dorsey to fail. How can you be a true Browns fan and feel that way?  

You all going to give him a chance to let him see what he does?  He had success in Kansas City. He took over a 2-14 team and they went 11-5 his first year. You’re right. Who in their right mind would want that kind of success around here?

He’s already started making moves. Who of you guys think cutting Kenny Britt was a bad move? 

Why don’t we just let it play out and see how it goes?

[bruceb]

17 minutes ago, Kathouse Sticks said:

If I didn’t know better, I’d think some of you guys want Dorsey to fail.

I think it is more that we are concerned that he will.

Especially after the stupid things he said when he came on board.

The stupidest being a buy-in to Huebris Magic Jackson's pity plea that he didn't have good enough players to win.

[Kathouse Sticks]

2 minutes ago, bruceb said:

I think it is more that we are concerned that he will.

Especially after the stupid things he said when he came on board.

The stupidest being a buy-in to Huebris Magic Jackson's pity plea that he didn't have good enough players to win.

Well don’t you think that there had to be roster discussions, and I’m sure that at some point Hue would have been involved, and the consensus was, “We have some players here, and if we can get the right pieces in here, we can be successful.”

l have no idea what Dorsey thinks of Hue as a coach. Maybe he can’t stand him. But I’ll bet he felt Hue was roster handicapped and deserved another year. He would have known either way, if the Browns don’t win in 2018, Hue is out the door and Dorsey can bring in his own coach. He knew Hue was going to coach in 2018. 

For Dorsey it was a win-win situation. If the Browns win with the players he brings in, then he wins. If they don’t and have another bad year, Hue is gone and he gets to choose the next coach. Another win. So he came into a pretty good situation, I think. Picks, cap money, and a coach who is either going to win or go home. 

[buno67]

1 hour ago, bruceb said:

And who is responsible/accountable for that?

Dorsey and it was money well spent when his roster is getting double digit wins. He started to see the future and knew that Smith is no longer a part of the future. He went ahead and drafted a QB in the first that could be sat for a year but than play off a rookie contract for the next 4years.

[DirtyDez]

15 and Pat Pete for 4

[MistaBohmbastic]

I'd like to bring up some potential second rounders. The RB and WR positions are incredibly deep this year. Imagine Nick Chubb and, say, James Washington in Rd 2. Pair that with Minkah and a QB in round 1...could be such a beastly draft class

[pnies20]

WR is actually pretty thin. There are only a few 1st round talents in Ridley and Sutton and no real top 10 prospects. WR class peaks in round 2. There are several that would be great in the second:

- Kirk

- St. Brown

- Simmie Conbs

- Tate

Due of the lack of high end talent one of these guys might make it into the 1st.

[BleedTheClock]

5 hours ago, Dawgpoun8017 said:

I’m not gonna lie I want nothing to do with Cody lattimer dude has been a straight up bust

He was actually pretty solid for them this year. Not great, but certainly an upgrade over what we have here now. And I don't think he was implying we bring him in as our new #1...he's our new #4.

[BleedTheClock]

3 hours ago, DirtyDez said:

15 and Pat Pete for 4

Possibly. I'd be half tempted to do this.

[BleedTheClock]

3 hours ago, MistaBohmbastic said:

I'd like to bring up some potential second rounders. The RB and WR positions are incredibly deep this year. Imagine Nick Chubb and, say, James Washington in Rd 2. Pair that with Minkah and a QB in round 1...could be such a beastly draft class

Chubb is more of a 3rd rounder at this point. I don't think he times well enough to go in the 2nd round. I like Chubb, but he's a tad overrated. He's the 3rd best RB in the class.

James Washington is also overrated. He's neither tall nor explosive, pretty much excluding him from 1st or 2nd round discussion. He's a good player, but I really don't think he runs well enough to warrant a high draft pick. That being said, this isn't the best class for ht/wt/spd receivers. Most of these guys have one or the other. Washington has neither.

[bosko1616]

Who the **** is pat pete lol

**** NVM I figured it out

[BleedTheClock]

On 1/2/2018 at 1:31 AM, dawgpound1816 said:

#6 Roquan Smith - ILB - UGA - Between the ends being solidified, and now your LB core, the Browns can have the best Front 7 in the league. Roquan is being compared to Luke Keukley. Sideline to Sideline playmaker, and he showed it today. He's an immediate upgrade over Schobert, and Carder is a UFA after this season. Kirksey, Smith & Collins. The Law Firm. 

I was on the Roquan Smith bandwagon until I spent more time watching his film. Luke Kuechley is FARRRRR too rich for him. He doesn't even play the same position. Smith is an outside the box defender. He plays WLB and scrapes and chases. He doesn't take on blocks. He doesn't sift through traffic. Kuechley was elite at everything and had 5x the instincts that Smith has. If anything, Smith is closer to LaVonte David. I love Smith's ability to chase and flash, but he's nowhere near the constant anchor I expected him to be based on his hype train. He would be a nice fit for a Gregg Williams defense, as he is excellent at blitzing and covering in zone, but ultimately this would be a waste of the #6 pick. Any fast linebacker would fit nicely with this team...a free agent to spell Schobert on passing downs is really all we need to be honest. I don't think Smith is going to be a bad player. I think he'll end up being a good starter, but he isn't a middle linebacker and he isn't even close to being Kuechley. Luke had some of the most unbelievable and versatile tape I've ever seen from a college football player. Smith has way too many bleh moments if you study the tape closely. He flashes, but there are far too many instances of him doing the Darron Lee dance: Stare into the backfield, get raped by an offensive lineman, get washed into the MLB. I like our linebackers to begin with, but I'd be willing to draft a guy that had Kuechley ability. There just is no guy in this class that provides that, as much as I've looked at these ILB's. I'm leaning towards making Rashaan Evans my top ILB, and I don't think even he goes in the top 20. And Malik Jefferson is a physical marvel, but has more bad tape than good at this point. All of these guys flash, but they don't play consistently great football. The most consistent ILB is Josey Jewel and I wouldn't even consider him in the 1st round due to size and speed limitations. Oh, and Jerome Baker is a beast. If he declares (doubtful), he'd be my 1st LB...but he's not an ILB in the NFL either.

 

And Mike McGlinchey in the top 5? No! No God no! No....no....NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
He's closer to being the 4th best OT than he is being the 4th overall pick. Connor Williams from Texas and Orlando Brown from Oklahoma are both better than McGlinchey. He's my #3, but guys like Kolton Miller and JaMarco Jones aren't that far behind him. I don't like how he gives up speed rushes and I don't like how he doesn't drive block. He's a position blocker. A very good position blocker, but so was Mitchell Schwartz. I hated Mitchell Schwartz with a burning passion. Drafting a taller version of him in the top 5 would make me want to PUKE. Especially after all the trades, he becomes our top pick. Gross.

[FEARtheELF]

Something I have not really seen talked about and not the most realistic scenario, or my favorite butttt IF we do sign Cousins, McCarron, or another vet QB and decide against drafting another young QB, what would you think about a trade down with the Giants to collect picks, then again with the Broncos and then with 4-5 we could take Chubb and Fitzpatrick and we would probably have 4-5 2nd round picks to invest at CB, RB, WR, +

Again just a thought but what would you think?

[TheeRealDeal]

I like to study QBs from many different angle. I follow the idea of "leave no stone unturned" My first study will be how QBs performed in the red zone through-out their careers. 

Red Zone TD-INT
Baker Mayfield       66-3 on 179    36.8%    1.6%    35.2
Sam Darnold         38-2 on 100    38%    2%    36
Josh Rosen          32-7 on 146    21.9%    4.7%    17.2
Josh Allen            19-0 on 65    29.2%    0%    29.2
Lamar Jackson    40-5 on 143    27.9%    3.4%    24.5
Mason Rudolph    42-3 on 162    25.9%    1.8%    24.1
Ryan Finley           21-2 on 103    20.3%    1.9%    18.4
Riley Ferguson    36-1 on 73    49.3%    1.3%    48
Jared Goff            56-1 on 187    29.9%    0.53%    29.37
DeShaun Watson    40-5 on 148    27%    3.3%    23.7
Dak Prescott           45-4 on 162    27.7%    2.4%    25.3
Kirk Cousins            39-5 on 108    36.1%    4.6%    31.5
Matthew Stafford   14-2 on 41    34%    4.8%    29.2
Mitch Trubisky        25-0 on 78    32%    0%    32
Teddy Bridge          42-1 on 116    36.2%    0.86%    35.34
Jamies Winston    44-1 on 102    43.1%    .098%    42.12
Cam Newton        14-0 on 44    31.1%    0%    31.1
Andrew Luck         52-3 on 183    28.4%    1.6%    26.2
Russell Wilson      72-6 on 215    33.4%    2.7%    31.7
Derek Carr             62-3 on 217    28.5%    1.3%    27.2
Marcus Mariota    59-2 on 197    29.9%    1.01%    28.89
Blake Bortles         33-5 on 128    25.7%    3.9%    21.8
Andy Dalton          24-5 on 110    21.8%    4.5%    17.3
Ryan Tannehill     28-1 on 84    33%    1.1%    31.9
Tyrod Taylor        20-2 on 71    28.1%    2.8%    25.3

I looked at some recent bust as well to determine if these numbers relate to success/failure in the NFL. I would have to say my findings would tell me that, yes, they do foretell NFL futures pretty accurately. 

DeShone Kizer    26-7 on 104    25%    6.7%    18.3
Paxton Lynch    37-2 on 121    30.5%    1.6%    28.9
Johnny Manzel    36-6 on 112    32.1%    5.3%    26.8
EJ Manuel    30-6 on 112    26.7%    5.3%    21.4
Robert Griffin    23-3 on 113    20.3%    2.6%    17.7
Jake Locker    17-4 on 84    20.2%    4.7%    15.5
Blaine Gabbert    17-4 on 96    17.7%    4.1%    13.6

Top 5 Touchdown Rates
1. Riley Ferguson 49.3%
2. Jamies Winston 43.1%
3. Sam Darnold 38%
4. Baker Mayfield 36.8%
5. Teddy Bridgewater 36.2%
 
Bottom 5 Touchdown Rates
6. Josh Rosen 21.9%
5. Andy Dalton 21.8%
4. Robert Griffin 20.3%
3. Ryan Finley 20.3%
2. Jake Locker 20.2%
1. Blaine Gabbert 17.7%

Top 5 Interception Rate
1. Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky 0%
2. Jared Goff 0.53%
3. Teddy Bridgewater 0.86%
4. Jamies Winston 0.98%
5. Marcus Mariota 1.01%

Bottom 5 Interception Rate
5. Josh Rosen 4.7%
4. Jake Locker 4.7%
3. Matthew Stafford 4.8%
2. E.J. Manuel 5.3%
1. Johnny Manziel 5.3%
Worst DeShone Kizer 6.7

Top 5 TD-INT Rate Ratio
1. Riley Ferguson 48%
2. Jamies Winston 42.12%
3. Sam Darnold 36%
4. Teddy Bridgewater 35.34%
5. Baker Mayfield 35.2%

Bottom 5 TD-INT Rate Ratio
5. Robert Griffin III 17.7%
4. Ryan Tannehill 17.3% (Has been okay in NFL but remember he was just learning in college)
3. Josh Rosen 17.2%
2. Jake Locker 15.5%
1. Blaine Gabbert 13.6%

 

The three biggest things I can take away from my study:

1. I was wrong about Ryan Finley. He does not seem to put the ball in the end zone enough in order to win in the NFL and he turns it over at crucial moments. He seems to be the anti Jameis Winston who turned it over all the time but never in the red zone. Finley seems to never make mistakes with the ball until he is in the redzone. I still believe the good things Finley does are thing that are not coach-able and I believe he can be the exception to the rule, but you do no draft exception in the 1st round. I will now move my evaluation of him to Mid 2nd-3rd rounder.

2. Baker Mayfield as much as I don't like his actions he seems to be nothing like Johnny Manziel on the football field. He makes things happen when it matters most and he protects the football inside the redzone.

3. STAY AWAY from Josh Rosen. Maybe this is what John Dorsey was talking about(Rumored) when he said he was a stay away guy. He is one of the worst in almost ever category and as history has shown he is on par with a lot of recent bust. He very rarely puts the ball in the endzone when he is given the chance and he turns the ball over at an alarming rate when asked to throw inside the red zone. IMO this study has eliminated him for me for consideration in the Top 20 picks. I would not even consider a draft and trade scenario anymore because the other teams might wise up and we would be stuck with him.

 

*Extra Findings*

I looked at several more recent bust at QB and DeShone Kizer had by far the worst interception rate in the redzone. He was 1.4% worse than the next closest guy. How can a regime that is built on analytics and the study of numbers be so careless with a pick? The numbers clearly show DeShone Kizer had a huge weakness in the red zone with interceptions yet Sashi and DePo were okay drafting him anyway? Something doesn't smell right with that pick. That is anti analytic right there. I have to believe that was a Hue Jackson or Jimmy Haslam pick all the way.