MaddHatter Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) It'll be almost 7 years to the day and 9 years to the day since GB has knocked Dallas out of the playoffs in the Divisional round (Dez caught it...) so it's only fitting that we face them in the Wild Card round here in Arlington for what could be the Cowboys' and Dak's best shot at a Super Bowl run. With plenty of chatter focusing on Mike McCarthy vs. his old team, I think it's better to focus on how the Cowboys match up overall against the Packers. So let's start with a quick run down: Passers: Dak Prescott is coming off an MVP caliber season where he led the NFL in Passing Touchdowns, was 2nd in TD:INT ratio, 3rd in Yards, 2nd in PSR, 1st in Comp% and 2nd in QBR, in what is without a doubt his most impressive season to date. He has found his rhythm and him and Lamb are on a different page all together. At this point, our offense, and our team as a whole, live or die on Dak's shoulders. Jordan Love is coming off one of the most impressive endings to a season to date, finishing with 20 TDs, 1 INT and 3 FL in his last 8 games. Love has improved dramatically at reading defenses and reminds some of Aaron Rodgers in his rookie season, struggling with accuracy but also throwing some absolute dimes. He will be hard to stop and should keep the Packers in it till the end and while our Defense, once top in the NFL, has struggled as of late, blowing several late leads that Dak had secured for them, they are built to handle this type of game with their speed and ability to cover. Runners: Coming into 2024, Tony Pollard was fresh off a major leg injury and a new contract, and was taking over as the featured back. He didn't exactly live up to expectations under the new workload, and was barely able to churn out 1,000yds rushing on 250+ carries despite having few touches lost to other backs (Dowdle missed time with injuries as well). He was able to garner another 300yds on 60+ targets in the passing game, often times serving as a chip blocker before bleeding out as a safety net for Dak, but as we head into the playoffs, we need him to step up. On the other side, we have Aaron Jones who shared carries with AJ Dillon nearly 50/50, in large part due to injuries, but both proved to be reliable work horses for Green Bay, with Jones averaging over 4.6ypc on 140 touches and both bringing 200+yards of receiving each on 60 total targets. With Dallas hemorrhaging yardage inside to teams of late, Green Bay should work Jones early and often between the tackles and see if they can build on the blueprint laid out by Buffalo. Receivers: Congratulations to the new Catch King for the Dallas Cowboys, another great #88 in a line of great 88's. CeeDee brought in 135 of 181 targets (75%) for 1750yds and 12 TD's surpassing Irvin's 1995 season of 111 catches for 1600yds (in 1 less game) and 10 TD's. This right after finishing 4th in Cowboys history in 2022 with 107 catches on 156 targets (68%) for 1359yds and 9 TD's. He has put himself in the conversation of elite WR's in the NFL and the Cowboys are lucky to have him. Since the 49er's game he has been critical in turning this ship around and has done it without the DIVA attitude of many who came before him. After Lamb though, things get sparse, with Ferguson a very underwhelming #2 Receiver, Cooks somewhat underutilized, and Gallup all but disappearing late in the season. Ferguson gets the job done but is far from a great TE but is serviceable and will make the contested catches and take the hits over the middle that you need from him to get the first down. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin Cheeseheads are bringing a group of WR's I know very little about, headlined by Jayden Reed (64 for 793) and Doubs (59 for 674), each with 8 TD's. From what I've seen and what I've heard, they are a very young but talented and impressive group of WR's, but none have stepped up and taken the mantle of great, though every great starts somewhere. If they're going to have success against Dallas, I believe it'll come as a big homerun against Bland on a hard double move that freezes him looking for that interception. Gilmore has been nothing but solid all year and his shoulder injury aside, should remain so. We've also had struggles on crossing routes while playing man coverage, so if they can work some speed across from the slots, or run their TE's up the seem, they could find some holes to take advantage of. Defense: Cowboys come into this game finishing with the 4th lowest completion % against, 5th fewest passing yds against, and were middle of the road in TDs allowed and INT's. They were also middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed, Yards per Carry allowed, and rushing TDs allowed. They weren't the elite unit of years past, but were still very strong and feature one of the top defensive players in the NFL in Micah Parsons. The Packers, likewise, also feature a decent Defense that finished middle of the pack in Comp% but gave up some big plays and finished bottom 10 in Yards allowed and Yards per Attempt but middle of the pack in TDs allowed. They're not great ballhawks and tend to keep things in front of them and bend/don't break. They, like the Boys, also struggled to stop the run, finishing with the 5th worst run defense in yards allowed, though that was somewhat a product of how often they were run against as their YPC allowed and Run TDs allowed was more reasonable. Injuries: Dallas Stephon Gilmore (Questionable) Zack Martin (Likely) Tyler Smith (Questionable) Deuce Vaughn (Out) Sean McKeon (Out) CJ Goodwin (Out) Leighton Vander Esch (Out) Trevon Diggs (Out) Josh Ball (Out) Demarion Overshown (Out) David Durden (Out) John Stephens Jr (Out) Green Bay: AJ Dillon (Out) Romeo Doubs (Questionable) Isaiah McDuffie (Questionable) Christian Watson (Questionable) Rudy Ford (Out) Samori Toure (Out) Eric Stokes (Out) Luke Tenuta (Out) David Baktiari (Out) Tyler Davis (Out) Extra Details: When: 3:30 p.m., Sunday Records: Packers (9-8) @ Cowboys (12-5) Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX Edited January 8 by MaddHatter Math is hard 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt79511 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) On paper this is an extremely winnable game for us. This GB defense made Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito look decent, so imagine what Dak and Lamb will do to them. OTOH, the baggage/bad juju is palpable here. Everyone knows the two playoff games, but lest we forget that our first huge game last year was McCarthy’s return to GB to face an equally mediocre Packers team, and we sure choked away that one hard. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where we score 0-3 points in the first 18, 19 minutes of game time as the team exhibits symptoms of the jitters. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. An early 10-14 point lead for our pass rush and I think we’ve got this- Love isn’t Rodgers, who fwiw lost his first game to Dallas before becoming out kryptonite. But if we let them hang around, watch out. This GB team undoubtedly believes that they can beat us. Edited January 8 by matt79511 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D82 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 You just broke the mojo, MH. 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextyearfordaboyz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, MaddHatter said: It'll be almost 7 years to the day and 8 years to the day since GB has knocked Dallas out of the playoffs in the Divisional round (Dez caught it...) so it's only fitting that we face them in the Wild Card round here in Arlington for what could be the Cowboys' and Dak's best shot at a Super Bowl run. Dez (no) catch was 9 years ago, and the Jared Cook toe was 7 years ago. I’m totally traumatized by the Packers in the playoffs. This one would feel pretty good to pull off. I do think our defense is going to have trouble stopping this offense from moving. Love is playing good ball, getting it out quickly. We’re going to need to win with offense and forcing turnovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 32 minutes ago, D82 said: You just broke the mojo, MH. 😂 Is that a good thing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D82 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, MaddHatter said: Is that a good thing? I guess we'll see 🤪 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HDsportsfan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) 15 minutes ago, MaddHatter said: Is that a good thing? Well.... @D82 was reprimanded earlier in the season for slacking around. But he has shown much improvement of late. Edited January 8 by HDsportsfan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D82 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, HDsportsfan said: Well.... @D82 was reprimanded earlier in the season for slacking around. But he has shown much improvement of late. It worked out pretty well for the most part 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WheatieMan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I feel we will escape this game but Det could get revenge on us for that '14-15 game and ugly non-holding finish on Calvin Johnson. Either way, divisional matchup is bad for us. Bucs can be stingy but is probably our most favorable matchup. Eagles going through means they probably figured something out against the Bucs. Detroit would be a slight underdog best case scenario. I feel the lines would be: Bucs -4.5 Eagles -3.5 Det -3.0 So, pretty much coinflips the following round. I do think the -7.5 this week is a little ridiculous, but I suppose it's fair. It will probably be -9.0 by kickoff, in which case I take the Packers. I feel we will be eeking one out, like the Seattle game, although perhaps not that close. GB maybe gets some flukey turnovers, as we are due to have one of those games. I don't see a repeat of 2016, but keep in mind, Rogers first playoff game, must have been '08, he took the Warner led Cardinals to OT and they lost on a flukey strip sack TD in OT... 41-35 or something like that. That Cardinal team went to the SB. We could be looking at a coming out performance from an upstart team. There was also the Matt Flynn game where he came back on us against Romo. Packers have had our number in recent years so this result could be no different. If they start running the ball well with Jones, we will be in trouble at least defensively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextyearfordaboyz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 32 minutes ago, WheatieMan said: Either way, divisional matchup is bad for us. ??? This is the playoffs, my guy. Who do you expect to play? If you’re fretting over a Detroit, Tampa, or Philly matchup, you don’t have much hope when you reach the big boys. All three of those are very reasonable matchups for the divisional round. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiller Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said: ??? This is the playoffs, my guy. Who do you expect to play? If you’re fretting over a Detroit, Tampa, or Philly matchup, you don’t have much hope when you reach the big boys. All three of those are very reasonable matchups for the divisional round. At this point it really matters ZERO who we play except for the heavy weight of at SF. And maybe Baltimore though a “fast” field helps us a ton against them. All other teams it is all about us not the other team. GB in fact can in some ways give us more grief than Detroit. GB has more speed at WR overall they also have better secondary. Either way it will come down too can we control the run game limit 3rd and shorts and the. Not give up big plays in passing game either on deep passes or on swing passes to the flat unless we have silly things happen…. Lamb fumble at 1 - fumbled hand off - block FG returned 60 yards - tipped pass intercepted - refs decide our OL is a holding machine - our O should easily score 30 plus. Now will that be enough should be but is Gilmore really healthy enough. I am encouraged that we have seen a Wilson Lewis resurgence as they bring a toughness back that is missing with Kearse not making plays. Will the refs end their hold out against MP ( yeah pun intended). We should be encouraged by how we reacted after getting down to Washington. But again it will come down to can our roll players be mentally sound in the game so we limit the mental mistakes. Physically we should dominate in both sides but …. We for sure have all the pressure on US 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACO Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I think this is the better match up. Not worried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBoys Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 hours ago, D82 said: It worked out pretty well for the most part The last 4 games had a loss to Buffalo and Miami, and an ugly win against Detroit at home. A change was needed. Mad hatter will break the divisional round curse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
textaz03 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 https://x.com/dallascowboys/status/1744373394714607617?s=46&t=ktd6JTByZwOAf6VhdnN4wg Cowboys stadium calling for a White Out on Sunday. They want the word spread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Dallas Offense vs. Packers Defense is a huge mismatch - Dak and the Boys should put up 30, or it was a pretty bad day for them. The key will be if our Defense can slow down Jordan Love who had one of the best second halves of any QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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