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Free Agency 2024


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2 hours ago, ObotimusPrime said:

Not super excited about our cap space. Not only bc of all the free agents that we have. The titans and colts both have more money to spend. 
 

We’re gonna have to walk a tight rope. 

Do you trust Indy or Tenn to spend it wisely? I dont.

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12 hours ago, Blaze said:

Do you trust Indy or Tenn to spend it wisely? I dont.

I expect Tennessee to be pragmatic with their spending - this is Y2 of Ran Carthon, he spent last season retooling the team with cheap signings, but was also working with a HC he didn't bring in and who doesn't seem very good in the whole "collaboration" side of football.

I do expect Chris Ballard to expect improvement by simply getting Anthony Richardson back - and that's going to be the fly in that ointment, if Ballard les Gardner Minshew and/or Michael Pittman Jr walk, that's going to end very poorly.

Now, the ownership of each team? That's where I expect it to unravel. Amy Adams Strunk and Jim Irsay seem to have unrealistic expectations on where their two teams are, so hopefully that puts each team into a "win now" mindset, which then pushes them into some bad signings...

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21 hours ago, lumberjackchris said:

Dolphins fans seem to say he’s washed and just a name at this point 

This is what I'm hearing as well - definitely not the guy who was garnishing "top 5 CB in football" type praise. Is he better than Steven Nelson? I don't know, but PFF had Nelson scored *significantly* higher (71.9 to 55.1). So it's not a stretch to say that Nelson is an upgrade at this point - unless you think last season was an anomaly for both (which IS a reasonable take - Howard has never been that bad, Nelson has never been this good). 

I do wonder if Howard could play S - that would be a reasonable transition at this point in his career, and his ability to track the ball in flight would be a great asset in creating turnovers. Howard as a starting S with Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre sounds interesting, and makes drafting S a day 3 "lottery ticket" vs an immediate need.

Howard can probably get more money on the open market, teams are always on the lookout for CBs with experience - if it's the Texans, he's going to have to concede that he's not a 5/$90mm guy anymore.

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I’m willing to spend big on a CB this year and go young on the d-line. We saw last year that we could coach up whoever we had to throw on the d-line but our secondary would get burned in big moments. 
 

I want to keep Greenard but we need to sign a CB opposite of Stingley, even if we keep Nelson. 4-2-5 nickel package is the new base defense against most offensive systems now anyway 

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On 2/24/2024 at 8:43 AM, Pastor Dillon said:

I’m willing to spend big on a CB this year and go young on the d-line. We saw last year that we could coach up whoever we had to throw on the d-line but our secondary would get burned in big moments. 
 

I want to keep Greenard but we need to sign a CB opposite of Stingley, even if we keep Nelson. 4-2-5 nickel package is the new base defense against most offensive systems now anyway 

Bring back Nelson

Sign S Whitehead in FA

Draft Mitchell or DeJohn if WR Thomas isn't there in the 1st.

Draft another CB to develop late in the draft.

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33 minutes ago, lumberjackchris said:

 

I wouldnt be opposed to signing Barkley, but I dont want to overpay for that position. The top base salary is 11.8 million going to McCaffery who is clearly worth it. I wouldnt take a cap hit of over 8 million to sign Barkley. That might not be realistic, but hes not worth more than that. I love his skill set,  but if he thinks hes worth a 4/50 million deal or something, I am out on that one. 

He is 27 and nearing the end of the life expectancy on a RB in the NFL. I wouldnt trust him to be able to start for more than 2-3 years, which fits our timeline of being able to spend a little money on the position. I want rookie year Barkley who can rush for 1,000 and catch 90 passes out of the backfield. Thats what we have need of in Houston. 

 

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There’s a lot to this Barkley to Houston momentum that’s out there. Now they are suggesting that CJ Stroud is actively recruiting him. If CJ really wants him, it’s probably gonna happen but we have to be very cautious about this and how we structure a contract. 

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1 hour ago, Pastor Dillon said:

There’s a lot to this Barkley to Houston momentum that’s out there. Now they are suggesting that CJ Stroud is actively recruiting him. If CJ really wants him, it’s probably gonna happen but we have to be very cautious about this and how we structure a contract. 

Bingo. Anything over $8mm/yr or over 3yrs gives me pause.

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2 hours ago, ET80 said:

Bingo. Anything over $8mm/yr or over 3yrs gives me pause.

I think it may be above that $8M per year, but the last year will be a "get out of a contract free" card (possibly in year 3 as well)

Something like... 4 years, $46M ($20M SB, $30M guaranteed) APY = $11.5M

Year 1 (2024): $4M base + $4M SB = $8M (fully guaranteed)

Year 2 (2025): $6M base + $4M SB = $10M (fully guaranteed)

Year 3 (2026): $8.5M base + $4M SB = $12.5M (fully guaranteed by March 12th or start of season)

Year 4 (2027): $11.5M base + $4M SB = $15.5

Texans could walk in 2026 & gain $500K in cap space.

Saquon gets $30M guaranteed dollars.  Even if he gets cut in 2026 that still averages out to $15M per season.

$30M in guaranteed $$$ puts him right behind CMC & Kamara.

I could also see some bonuses tossed in there (e.g. $1M if leads league in yards from scrimmage, $1M if Texans in SB, etc.)

Also, we should expect the salary cap to continue to climb as the NFL finds new revenue streams and the huge TV / streaming / broadcasting deal they negotiated.

So those #'s look big in Years 3 & 4, but if salary cap is $270M - $290M, it will look like a bargain.

Moreover, that contract would be worth another $1M per year in Texas (over NYC) since Texas has no state income tax.  

Technically, he would be making more than CMC who is out in Kali paying big $$$ in state taxes.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

There’s a lot to this Barkley to Houston momentum that’s out there. Now they are suggesting that CJ Stroud is actively recruiting him. If CJ really wants him, it’s probably gonna happen but we have to be very cautious about this and how we structure a contract. 

Low chance it happens now, too expensive. We're looking at the next tier down which is surprisingly a lot cheaper than Barkley (Jacobs, Pollard, Swift). Still looking to bring back Motor and have it be a committee. Swift we had interest in trading for at the draft. 

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