Super Bowl: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

[Ataal]

Brock Purdy's jersey number = 13

49ers _ 4+9 = 13

Super Bowl 58 _  5+8 = 13

Super Bowl Date 2/11 _ 2+11 = 13

I'm currently typing this on page 13

It's meant to be, right? 

Edited February 7 by Ataal
Dang, it went to page 14

[Forge]

51 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

Here's the predictions coming from ESPN's website & tv personalities that was posted on the ESPN website.

"Of the 64 experts who weighed in, the Chiefs were favored by 49 of them (76.6%), while the 49ers claimed 15 votes (23.4%)".

On the CBS website it was a clean sweep for the Chiefs lol!

Like I said it's the Niners vs America!

I fully expect the NFL Network folks to be all over the Chiefs as well and I bet Cynthia Freelund goes against her model again and takes the Chiefs even though her model almost always sides with the moneyline favorite.

On ESPN Countdown I can 100% predict that Samantha Ponder will take the Chiefs lol!

It's not a surprise. 

One team has not played well in the playoffs, the other has

One team has Patrick Mahomes, who is already making a case as a top 3 all time QB and the other team has Brock Purdy, who is going to be tainted by the stench of Jimmy G until he wins a super bowl most likely. 

Andy Reid vs Kyle isn't much of a contest right now, and overall I'd probably trust the KC coaching staff more than the 49ers staff. 

[NFL Network]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's not a surprise. 

One team has not played well in the playoffs, the other has not

One team has Patrick Mahomes, who is already making a case as a top 3 all time QB and the other team has Brock Purdy, who is going to be tainted by the stench of Jimmy G until he wins a super bowl most likely. 

Andy Reid vs Kyle isn't much of a contest right now, and overall I'd probably trust the KC coaching staff more than the 49ers staff. 

What I can't understand is that how the Niners opened and are still the favorites. I'm thinking the only reason the Niners are the favorites is b/c there a #1 seed and the Chiefs are a #3 seed. With all you mentioned above it appears the sportsbooks want to payout huge sums to people taking the Chiefs +2 or even Chiefs +110 on the moneyline. 

Even folks in the media who picked the Niners to win the SB at the beginning of the season are now off the bandwagon as CBS's Pete Prisco is taking the Chiefs over the Niners but his initial pick to start the season was the Niners winning it all over the Bills I think. Even ESPN's Rex Ryan all year said the Niners were the best team in the NFL but he sure as hell ain't taking them over the Chiefs. The media had more people taking the Bills & Ravens over the Chiefs in the earlier playoff rounds.

I'm going to assume if the Niners drew the Ravens or Bills it would've been the same story as those 2 teams were probably even worse matchups for the Niners.

As far as Brock being tainted by Jimmy I don't think he'll get as much blame as Jimmy should the Niners lose unless he's really trash and the offense doesn't score points. When Jimmy ran the offense with the same personnel it was always limited b/c of Jimmy's limitations. There's a reason why Kyle Shannahan admitted that Brock at 3rd string was the best QB in 2022 training camp and it basically b/c the two other QB's ahead on the depth chart were unreliable at best.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, JIllg said:

Ben Solak's new bit on Shanahan's offensive tweaks for The Ringer is a must read imo

Ben has some great stuff.

[JIllg]

17 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's not a surprise. 

One team has not played well in the playoffs, the other has not

One team has Patrick Mahomes, who is already making a case as a top 3 all time QB and the other team has Brock Purdy, who is going to be tainted by the stench of Jimmy G until he wins a super bowl most likely. 

Andy Reid vs Kyle isn't much of a contest right now, and overall I'd probably trust the KC coaching staff more than the 49ers staff. 

Also, one team's critical offensive weakness at pass catcher has slowly been solved as they've found an acceptable combo of guys. For the other team, their critical offensive weakness on the offensive line has been more and more exploited. 

Same on defense except more extreme-  both teams were great on that side of the ball in the regular season, but the 49ers have worn down, lost pieces, and have been more and more vulnerable while the Chiefs are coming off an annihilation of a Ravens offense that was rolling. Recent evidence is unkind.

[Ataal]

I don't read too much into what the Vegas odds are.  Their primary goal is to make as much money as possible, not predict outcomes.  Sometimes, those two work hand in hand, but not always.  And, Super Bowls are tricky.  The line was always going to be very close.  And, pretty much anything under a 3 point victory is a toss up, anyway.  The percentage of games decided by 1 or 2 points is really low.  Like 4%. If you're talking just Super Bowls, it's only happened once.  1991 Bills/Giants. 19-20.

There's a reason the Niners opened up as favorites, and it has everything to do with making a lot of money for Vegas.  

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, Ataal said:

I don't read too much into what the Vegas odds are.  Their primary goal is to make as much money as possible, not predict outcomes.  Sometimes, those two work hand in hand, but not always.  And, Super Bowls are tricky.  The line was always going to be very close.  And, pretty much anything under a 3 point victory is a toss up, anyway.  The percentage of games decided by 1 or 2 points is really low.  Like 4%. If you're talking just Super Bowls, it's only happened once.  1991 Bills/Giants. 19-20.

There's a reason the Niners opened up as favorites, and it has everything to do with making a lot of money for Vegas.  

I do think that folks are putting a lot of weight on a couple of results for predicting future performance. A lot of hay has been made about the 49ers offensive struggles against good defenses, but the Chiefs defense hasn't seen many good offenses over the course of the season itself and I believe has some of our syndrome where when you can actually get rushing attempts in, you can hurt them on the ground.

And the Chiefs pass catchers have been hidden with screens and 2TE sets and Kelce has been awesome in the playoffs, but he was not that dude in the regular season. Is it playoff focus or just a couple of very critical plays that went the Chiefs way that might not be counted on? Has the 49ers horrid first half run defense been teething pains with some new guys that are seeing more snaps or a permanent issue? We can't afford to get gashed on the ground again.

The 49ers O line has gotten eaten up by Baltimore and Detroit and to a lesser extent by Green Bay. Our biggest issue in pass protection is McKivitz occasionally being a seive to lengthy pass rushers (see Jadeveon Clowney) and power DTs going right through Feliciano. We got eaten alive by Alim McNeil. Will that continue for the Chiefs without Omenihu? I don't think that we are going to gash their coverage unit like we've gashed others - they have too many versatile personnel and too well prepared for our motions and tricks. So we are going to have to be patient and make a couple of off schedule plays.

I think that the margin between the two teams is razor thin, but that doesn't mean the result of the game will be. Single game contexts can lead to weird results.

[Forge]

19 minutes ago, Ataal said:

I don't read too much into what the Vegas odds are.  Their primary goal is to make as much money as possible, not predict outcomes.  Sometimes, those two work hand in hand, but not always.  And, Super Bowls are tricky.  The line was always going to be very close.  And, pretty much anything under a 3 point victory is a toss up, anyway.  The percentage of games decided by 1 or 2 points is really low.  Like 4%. If you're talking just Super Bowls, it's only happened once.  1991 Bills/Giants. 19-20.

There's a reason the Niners opened up as favorites, and it has everything to do with making a lot of money for Vegas.  

To be clear, You are correct that they aren't trying to predict outcomes, but I'd push back on just classifying it as just  "making money". Vegas likes to make a lot of money but they are also very risk averse. They want to make money without the risk. Vegas will make an absolute crap ton of money if the money and bets are exactly 50% on both sides. They can make more if they are heavy on one side and win, but that's gambling. Vegas (humorously), isn't trying to gamble. 

So I will say that I do believe it is absolutely bizarre that they have refused the line despite like 80% of the money being on KC right now. 

[NFL Network]

16 minutes ago, Ataal said:

I don't read too much into what the Vegas odds are.  Their primary goal is to make as much money as possible, not predict outcomes.  Sometimes, those two work hand in hand, but not always.  And, Super Bowls are tricky.  The line was always going to be very close.  And, pretty much anything under a 3 point victory is a toss up, anyway.  The percentage of games decided by 1 or 2 points is really low.  Like 4%. If you're talking just Super Bowls, it's only happened once.  1991 Bills/Giants. 19-20.

There's a reason the Niners opened up as favorites, and it has everything to do with making a lot of money for Vegas.  

Well hopefully Vegas makes it money off of people losing money by backing the Chiefs. But even if Vegas losses money one one side they tend to make it up on other types of bets for the game e.g. total, props & in game bets. The house always make it's money in the gambling industry or else they'd be no gambling.

[NFL Network]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

To be clear, You are correct that they aren't trying to predict outcomes, but I'd push back on just classifying it as just  "making money". Vegas likes to make a lot of money but they are also very risk averse. Vegas will make an absolute crap ton of money if the money and bets are exactly 50% on both sides. They can make more if they are heavy on one side and win, but that's gambling. Vegas (humorously), isn't trying to gamble. They are just trying to make money. 

So I will say that I do believe it is absolutely bizarre that they have refused the line despite like 80% of the money being on KC right now. 

Well let's just hope the bookmakers know something about the Niners that the rest of us don't lol! 

I know professional gamblers on Twitter are all picking the Chiefs and most professional gamblers tend bet the side that's opposite of the general public but not in this SB as it's mostly Chiefs backers all around.

And the non professional gamblers who just like to place a wager for giggles are all on the Chiefs as well but that's a given with regards to the Chiefs recent history as opposed to the Niners. 

[oldman9er]

1 hour ago, Ataal said:

I'm currently typing this on page 13
It's meant to be, right? 

[StevenK]

 

[Ataal]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

To be clear, You are correct that they aren't trying to predict outcomes, but I'd push back on just classifying it as just  "making money". Vegas likes to make a lot of money but they are also very risk averse. They want to make money without the risk. Vegas will make an absolute crap ton of money if the money and bets are exactly 50% on both sides. They can make more if they are heavy on one side and win, but that's gambling. Vegas (humorously), isn't trying to gamble. 

So I will say that I do believe it is absolutely bizarre that they have refused the line despite like 80% of the money being on KC right now. 

Oh, it's bizarre, for sure.  I don't think we'll ever know the method to their madness, though.  

But, they could just be waiting for this week to make adjustments.  Most bettors I know don't bet two weeks in advance.  Injuries, arrests, sickness, etc..  could vastly change the outcome of a game.  

If that doesn't happen, though, it will definitely be one of the weirder Vegas moves.  Still, I'm 99% positive they're doing it for a reason that we just don't know, and may never know. 

It could also be that these "too close to call" games are also too close to call for bettors and only the casual bettors are throwing all their money on a KC win.  While the rest are betting heavily on over/under, CMC/Pacheco rushing yards, Purdy/Mahomes passing yards, etc..  Vegas is going to rake in a ton of money, even if KC covers.  

[J-ALL-DAY]

I should be very nervous with the Chiefs having a top 2 defense and having freaking a top 2-3 QB of all time in Mahomes....but like for some reason I feel pretty good about this game? Majority of the picks are for the Chiefs this game, despite them being Vegas dogs. I don't know, I just feel good about what our offense can do and I think our defense will fare better than it did in the first two games.  

[Forge]

16 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I should be very nervous with the Chiefs having a top 2 defense and having freaking a top 2-3 QB of all time in Mahomes....but like for some reason I feel pretty good about this game? Majority of the picks are for the Chiefs this game, despite them being Vegas dogs. I don't know, I just feel good about what our offense can do and I think our defense will fare better than it did in the first two games.  

Just going to let it play out. I can see avenues where the niners win, I can see avenues where they get beat like a drum. Last time I picked how that game would play out almost exactly like it did, so this time I just want to enjoy the build up and the game without thinking about how I think it will play out.