2024 49ers offseason

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

1 minute ago, GW21 said:

Isn't it weird that a fullback is called a fullback and a halfback is called a halfback? Definitely seems backwards. 

 

Anyway call Juice a FB, call him a TE, call him whatever you want; I still maintain that his skillset is unique and less easy to replace than a number 1 receiver. 

I heard somewhere that the other team plays a cover three almost exclusively when juice is in the game.  Teams usually either use base personnel, big nickel, or bring the SS in the box to match up.  

Every team in the league uses a number one wide out on every play.  They have a greater impact on the outcome of the game than a full back/swiss army knife.  We don't know who is capable of the role, because most of the best athletes are transitioned to TE, LB, or RB at some point.  If we develop a tight end and full back independently, we could platoon a Juice replacement.  You cannot platoon a number one wide receiver.  

While Juice's role may be more rare, when looked at as a collection of individual plays, his role within a play can be replicated.  At this point he is mostly a second tight end that is good at blocking in space that understand the full back role.  Eventually, the team will have to move forward from Juice, as players don't last forever.

Technically, you are correct, every team has a number 1 wide receiver, but there is only one Juice.  I contend that rare does not equate to valuable, as every other team does ok with platooning a second tight end and a special teams quality full back who specializes in I formation blocking.

The front office has a lot of things going on.  Stability at the FB/2nd TE/Swiss Army Knife position is an easy thing to cross off the list.  Juice gives us a really good floor at these positions, and we can start to find young replacements and ceiling plays.

[757-NINER]

50 minutes ago, GW21 said:

As far as value to the team? No, Juice is not more valuable. I think the sentiment is that you can find a receiver that can do what BA does way easier than you can find a FB that can do with Juice does; and I agree with that. 

Also I feel like the FB position is a niche position at this point lol. 

I think value is subjective here.

BA is viewed more valueable to the team because of his production. as a receiver.

But I would argue Juice is more valuable to the offensive scheme (run & pass) than BA and therefore more valuable overall.

Juice does so much just from run blocking perspective, that the passing concepts wouldn't trigger the type of coverage looks & production it receives w/o what he does in the run game. And in this scheme, the passing offense is a by product of the run game. The drop back passing game isn't far enough along to carry the offense on a week to week basis. So the run game and it's effectiveness/efficiency enables the pass game to function at high level, week in and week out. And Juice has big hand in both, especially as a receiving threat in 22 personnel or with our more  heavier looks, 2TE, 3 TE etc because Shanny does employ him like a receiving TE as well.

 

Edited March 14 by 757-NINER

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

2 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

I think value is subjective here.

BA is viewed more valueable to the team because of his production. as a receiver.

But I would argue Juice is more valuable to the offensive scheme (run & pass) than BA and therefore more valuable overall.

Juice does so much just from run blocking perspective, that the passing concepts wouldn't trigger the type looks& production it receives w/o what he does in the run game. And in this scheme, the passing offense is a by product of the run game. The drop back passing game isn't far enough along to carry the offense on a week to week basis. So the run game and it's effectiveness/efficiency enables the pass game to function at high level, week in and week out. And Juice has big hand in both, especially as a receiving threat in 22 personnel or with our more of a heavy looks, 2TE, 3 TE etc because Shanny does employ him like a receiving TE as well.

 

I think when teams play zone, this is accurate, but when teams played man against the niners Aiyuk was the only answer the team had.  We would have to spend premium assets to replace Aiyuk, Juice is either irreplaceable and we need to find contingencies or his job is so rare we can eventually develop a replacement we find in the 3rd through 5th round (as other teams don't value the skill set as highly).   Unfortunately, eventually has passed, he is not getting younger and we need to find a way to replicate the things he does. 

It is better that we have this draft to address it rather than just free agency.  If he left, it would have been a scramble to adjust.  I like the idea of a session plan here.

[757-NINER]

33 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I think when teams play zone, this is accurate, but when teams played man against the niners Aiyuk was the only answer the team had.  We would have to spend premium assets to replace Aiyuk, Juice is either irreplaceable and we need to find contingencies or his job is so rare we can eventually develop a replacement we find in the 3rd through 5th round (as other teams don't value the skill set as highly).   Unfortunately, eventually has passed, he is not getting younger and we need to find a way to replicate the things he does. 

It is better that we have this draft to address it rather than just free agency.  If he left, it would have been a scramble to adjust.  I like the idea of a session plan here.

In a more modern offense where the run game is based around the drop-back passing offense, I would agree.

But until Shanny has a change of heart about how the offense is structured, the running game will be the most important proponent of the offense.

We know this by the rype of offensive lineman he has preferred up until this point and how he approaches the run design versus the pass play design. It's night in day in terms of ingenuity and creativeness.

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times that Shanny will always coax production out of his WRs. The last thing I'm worried about is replacing BA's production. The draft is littered every year with WRs who can beat press-man. It's the other aspects of BA's skillset...tbe blocking temperament, the buy-in in terms of the open man gets the ball mindset that I think would be more difficult to replicate.

 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

18 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

In a more modern offense where the run game is based around the drop-back passing offense, I would agree.

But until Shanny has a change of heart about how the offense is structured, the running game will be the most important proponent of the offense.

We know this by the rype of offensive lineman he has preferred up until this point and how he approaches the run design versus the pass play design. It's night in day in terms of ingenuity and creativeness.

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times that Shanny will always coax production out of his WRs. The last thing I'm worried about is replacing BA's production. The draft is littered every year with WRs who can beat press-man. It's the other aspects of BA's skillset...tbe blocking temperament, the buy-in in terms of the open man gets the ball mindset that I think would be more difficult to replicate.

 

The blocking especially with Aiyuk would be hard to replicate.  He's improved so much in that area over his career. 

The larger point with juice remains, three years from now, he will be like 50 years old.  Aiyuk will still be in his prime.  They both fit the system as it now, but Aiyuk's blocking and attitude translate to any other scheme.  

This is a tough conversation to have.  WIlliams, Juice, Deebo, McC, and Kittle are all partner players.  Each one's versatility and unique abilities feed off of one another.  Based on age, injuries, contracts etc they will all age/contract out at about the same time, my guess is after two more years. It happens fast. Three years from now, Aiyuk might be the only guy left from this group.   Shanahan will be forced to adjust to new skill sets.  We have a damned barn full of unicorns, how do you replace unicorns? 

I am not sure about Shanahan and Wide receivers.  He had Roddy White and Julio Jones, Aiyuk and Deebo here, even in Washington he had a lot of talent at that group.   He hasn't exactly coached a list of scrubs.  

Edited March 14 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[Forge]

Just a reminder that Kyle Shanahan did not have a full back in Atlanta in 2016 but used a bunch of 13 personnel great effectiveness (especially in the pass game) 

[49erurtaza]

9 minutes ago, Forge said:

Just a reminder that Kyle Shanahan did not have a full back in Atlanta in 2016 but used a bunch of 13 personnel great effectiveness (especially in the pass game) 

Wasn't Patrick DiMarco his fullback in Atlanta? 

[Forge]

12 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

Wasn't Patrick DiMarco his fullback in Atlanta? 

Whoops, you are correct. He was still there. I thought he left in 16. He only played 30% of snaps, but he was there. I always just remember that atlanta team for their 3 TE usage, but you're right 

My point was to kind of back up @Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 there with how you can actually replicate Juice even if you can't find a guy like him.

[StevenK]

I have to imagine that we are restructuring someone since we haven’t been able to account for Floyd against the cap yet. 

[Forge]

Here is what I think I would be looking at. I love Juice...i just don't think what he does is something that truly moves the needle. Its the positions that dictate defensive personnel, not the actual player....so you can recreate that. They had 3 tight ends with higher than 30% snap share and another who had like 7%

The 2016 Falcons' pass efficiency and their use of heavy personnel was correlated -- generally, their pass success rate was higher as they decreased the number of wide receivers they had on the field. On first down, the prevalence of big sets helped produce a gaudy pass success rate of 62-percent, led by a 70-percent pass success rate from 13 personnel.

 

 

[GW21]

2 hours ago, GW21 said:

As far as value to the team? No, Juice is not more valuable. I think the sentiment is that you can find a receiver that can do what BA does way easier than you can find a FB that can do with Juice does; and I agree with that. 

Also I feel like the FB position is a niche position at this point lol. 

 

1 hour ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I heard somewhere that the other team plays a cover three almost exclusively when juice is in the game.  Teams usually either use base personnel, big nickel, or bring the SS in the box to match up.  

Every team in the league uses a number one wide out on every play.  They have a greater impact on the outcome of the game than a full back/swiss army knife.  We don't know who is capable of the role, because most of the best athletes are transitioned to TE, LB, or RB at some point.  If we develop a tight end and full back independently, we could platoon a Juice replacement.  You cannot platoon a number one wide receiver.  

While Juice's role may be more rare, when looked at as a collection of individual plays, his role within a play can be replicated.  At this point he is mostly a second tight end that is good at blocking in space that understand the full back role.  Eventually, the team will have to move forward from Juice, as players don't last forever.

Technically, you are correct, every team has a number 1 wide receiver, but there is only one Juice.  I contend that rare does not equate to valuable, as every other team does ok with platooning a second tight end and a special teams quality full back who specializes in I formation blocking.

The front office has a lot of things going on.  Stability at the FB/2nd TE/Swiss Army Knife position is an easy thing to cross off the list.  Juice gives us a really good floor at these positions, and we can start to find young replacements and ceiling plays.

Me too

[Forge]

Buckle up, I guess 

[NcFinest9erFan]

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

So it is interesting that Silver said that Hufanga is not guaranteed his starting spot but I am guessing that is more so because of the uncertainty that comes with him coming back from a torn ACL. Silver does not just throw these things around though. He mentioned Curl and Blackmon along with Simmons as potential options. 

Silver also mentioned that the Niners at least explored trying to trade for Joey Bosa and getting him opposite of his brother. Obviously that was goin to be difficult to do. 

Interesting times ahead, that's for sure. 

[757-NINER]

59 minutes ago, Forge said:

My point was to kind of back up @Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 there with how you can actually replicate Juice even if you can't find a guy like him.

I don't disagree.

My contention is that Juice the player leaving the offense as it is currently constructed would create more issues and lack of overall production than if BA left the offense.

People forget the offense was still relatively good when Jimmy was here, even though he pretty much ignored BA for long stretches and he relied heavily on Kittle & Deebo doing work in terms of targets. Jimmy just missed so many lay-ups that it seemed as if the pass game was lagging way behind.

It wasn't until Brock took the reigns that BA's full potential was unlocked.

So to your point, I believe you can replicate a BA's production w/o replicating him.

Especially now with Brock's emergence. 

Juice's role is more expansive so I do agree we could get several players to address his multitude of tasks, play to play. But that would also tend to make what we're trying to disguise or exploit easier to sniff out. Cohesiveness from play to play I don't think would look as seamless as it does at times with Juice in the fold.

If you look at as Juice is just a FB who catches passes, yes that position in and of itself seems rather expendable.

But to play the multitude of roles Juices commands in one series of plays alone its much more nuanced and not as readily quantified. Not mention his importance as a blocker in the run game in terms of timing, technique and intelligence. I think that may be where the disconnect in my argument stems from.

I don't think it's a apples vs. oranges comparisson when you consider the way Shanny constructs the offensive side of the ball. Just my take on it, anyway.

Now if Shanny were to revamp the offense because he now has a QB he can trust, then all bets are off. You could very well see where a player like Juice and what he provides is no longer of value. But we ain't there yet imo...