General Tso Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 It seems like a lock now for JJ McCarthy to go in the first round. That's one more player that would slide to the Lions. Let's hope Nix and Penix somehow boost their own stock. Plus plenty of WRs upped their stock for RD1 as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 40 minutes ago, General Tso said: It seems like a lock now for JJ McCarthy to go in the first round. That's one more player that would slide to the Lions. Let's hope Nix and Penix somehow boost their own stock. Plus plenty of WRs upped their stock for RD1 as well. From what I understand, Michael Penix had a pretty good combine. I could see him going in the 20s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 From my perspective, this is what I'm seeing for Round 1 after the combine QB's Caleb Williams Jayden Daniels Drake Maye JJ McCarthy Bo Nix Michael Penix RB's None WR's Marvin Harrison Jr Malik Nabers Rome Odunze Brian Thomas Jr AD Mitchell Xavier Worthy TE's Brock Bowers OT's Joe Alt Olu Fashanu Taliese Fuaga JC Latham Amarius Mims Troy Fautanu IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson DT Byron Murphy Johnny Newton Braden Fiske EDGE Dallas Turner Jared Verse Laiatu Latu Chop Robinson LB None CB Quinyon Mitchell Terrion Arnold Nate Wiggins Cooper DeJean S None Total = 31 prospects On the bubble: Graham Barton, OL Ladd McKonkey, WR T'Vondre Sweat, DT Kris Jenkins, DT Darius Robinson, DE Payton Wilson, LB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 Most of your prospects make sense for Round 1. Folks seem to be down on Bo Nix so he might slide. If Detroit doesn't take Darius Robinson, I could see Baltimore taking him. I would be a fan of a trade back but not too far. Washington might be the ideal trade-back partner and they have the draft capital to trade up. I am not sure they would give up draft capital given the number of holes they have right now. One scenario I could see happening is Amarius Mims falling due to injury/durability concerns. I could definitely see the Commanders or some other team moving up to get him if he fell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 I don't see any way that 6 QBs go in round 1. I think the media is higher on these guys than the teams are and they will drop like Levis, Willis, Howell etc. After the top 10, I am not sure who will be drafting a QB but teams saw the Steelers draft Pickett because they needed a QB and it has been a failure so I don't think teams like MN will force it. Between the free agents (Cousins, Russ, Tannehill) and trades (Fields, maybe Daniel Jones, Trey Lance etc) teams will not reach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said: Folks seem to be down on Bo Nix so he might slide. He's had a lot of buzz from the combine that has been positive. I've seen him getting connected to Denver. He could also be a target for the Raiders. UFA's Kirk Cousins - Starter Russell Wilson - Starter Baker Mayfield - Starter Justin Fields - Starter Ryan Tannehill - Bridge Starter Jacoby Brissett - Bridge Starter Joe Flacco - Bridge Starter Sam Darnold - Bridge Starter TEAMS NEEDING QB (Starter/Upgrade) Chicago Washington New England New York Giants Atlanta Minnesota Denver Las Vegas Pittsburgh Tampa Bay TEAMS THAT COULD TAKE A QBOTF New Orleans Los Angeles Rams Seattle Just playing Matchmaker to see available spots Chicago Washington [Sam Howell] New England [Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe] New York Giants [Daniel Jones] Atlanta > Justin Fields Minnesota > Kirk Cousins Denver [Jarrett Stidham] Las Vegas [Aidan O'Connell] Pittsburgh > Russell Wilson [Kenny Pickett] Tampa Bay > Baker Mayfield Kirk Cousins - Starter Russell Wilson - Starter Baker Mayfield - Starter Justin Fields Ryan Tannehill - Bridge Starter Jacoby Brissett - Bridge Starter Joe Flacco - Bridge Starter Sam Darnold - Bridge Starter DRAFT Chicago - Caleb Williams >>> Considered to be a generational talent like Mahomes. #1 overall Washington Jayden Daniels [Sam Howell] >>> The Commanders have new ownership and are in the QB market. They're sitting #2 overall New England Drake Maye[Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe] >>> The Patriots are done with Mac Jones. They could trade down but they're sitting at #3 overall New York Giants JJ McCarthy[Daniel Jones] >>> The Giants are done with Jones and want to upgrade. They're sitting at #6 overall Atlanta > Justin Fields Minnesota > Kirk Cousins >>> If Cousins does come back, it's likely to be a short-term deal. They could be looking to move up and draft their QBOTF. McCarthy has been getting linked to them. They'd have to trade up to #5 to ensure that choice is theirs. Denver Bo Nix [Jarrett Stidham] >>> Sitting at #12, they could arguably sit put and let the draft come to them. Nix is getting a lot of buzz in terms of the Broncos Las Vegas Michael Penix [Aidan O'Connell] >>> Pierce is in his first year as HC and he has a connection to Jayden Daniels from their time at Arionza State. Could consider trading up to #3 overall if Daniels slips past the Commanders. They're sitting behind the Vikings and Broncos, so they'd need to trade up to get their guy if they had someone in mind. Pittsburgh > Russell Wilson [Kenny Pickett] Tampa Bay > Baker Mayfield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 (edited) 2024 PRO DAY SCHEDULE Pro days are coming up soon. Here's what I can find so far. It's harder and harder to find things. Here are some of the names. Ball State conducted recently (10 players) - no results announced yet March 6: Northwestern March 7: Purdue March 12: Oregon (Jackson Powers-Johnson, Khyree Jackson, Brandon Dorlus, Troy Franklin) March 13: Georgia (Amarius Mims, Ladd McConkey, Kamari Lassiter, Sedrick Van Pran, Javon Bullard) March 18: Iowa (Cooper DeJean, Erick All, Logan Lee) March 19: Army March 20: Alabama, USC March 21: Notre Dame (Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, Cam Hart) March 22: Michigan, Missouri March 27: LSU, Ole Miss March 27-30: Big 12 Pro Day (Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas, TCU, Houston, BYU, Baylor Cincinnati) March 29: Maryland (Ja'Quan Sheppard, Taulia Tagovailoa) Edited March 6 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 If Washington drafts a QB, that likely makes Howell available. Similarly if the Steelers upgrade in free agency, Kenny Pickett could be available. Also Jimmy Garoppolo is available and although not great, could be a target for someone. Mac Jones will likely be traded as well is NE gets another QB and although he has been bad the last couple of years, he was good his rookie year which was the only time he had a real OC. Someone could take a chance on him given the options in the draft and cost of drafting someone that high. The Cowboys are now sitting on Trey Lance who is either going to be a free agent or they will have to pay him a ton on the 5th year option so I could easily see a team moving for him with a late pick over reaching on someone in the draft. So although there are a lot of teams needing a QB, I highly doubt they will all try to get them in the first round. Every year we hear about these QBs who are first round talents and they drop like rocks because teams won't draft someone with a 3rd round grade in the first because they have a hole at QB. Everyone talked about Malik Willis and Sam Howell being a top 3-5 picks and they went in the third and fourth rounds. Similarly with Levis, people thought he would be a top 5 pick and he went in the second round. These teams have seen teams reach on guys like Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Mac Jones, Josh Rosen etc because the teams needed a QB and over drafted them. I think we see at most 4 QBs taken in the first round and I think 3 is probably more likely. The guys being hyped up right now and getting a buzz are because teams need QBs and they are the next best ones but it has nothing to do with their actual evaluation being graded in that spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 17 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: If Washington drafts a QB, that likely makes Howell available. Similarly if the Steelers upgrade in free agency, Kenny Pickett could be available. Also Jimmy Garoppolo is available and although not great, could be a target for someone. Mac Jones will likely be traded as well is NE gets another QB and although he has been bad the last couple of years, he was good his rookie year which was the only time he had a real OC. Someone could take a chance on him given the options in the draft and cost of drafting someone that high. The Cowboys are now sitting on Trey Lance who is either going to be a free agent or they will have to pay him a ton on the 5th year option so I could easily see a team moving for him with a late pick over reaching on someone in the draft. So although there are a lot of teams needing a QB, I highly doubt they will all try to get them in the first round. Every year we hear about these QBs who are first round talents and they drop like rocks because teams won't draft someone with a 3rd round grade in the first because they have a hole at QB. Everyone talked about Malik Willis and Sam Howell being a top 3-5 picks and they went in the third and fourth rounds. Similarly with Levis, people thought he would be a top 5 pick and he went in the second round. These teams have seen teams reach on guys like Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Mac Jones, Josh Rosen etc because the teams needed a QB and over drafted them. I think we see at most 4 QBs taken in the first round and I think 3 is probably more likely. The guys being hyped up right now and getting a buzz are because teams need QBs and they are the next best ones but it has nothing to do with their actual evaluation being graded in that spot. Pickett: Would be back up to whomever is brought in Howell: Would be back up Jones: He's probably going to get the Sam Darnold treatment (and could even find his way to SF) Lance: He hasn't done anything to be considered an option Jimmy G: Not a viable starting option 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 58 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: Pickett: Would be back up to whomever is brought in Howell: Would be back up Jones: He's probably going to get the Sam Darnold treatment (and could even find his way to SF) Lance: He hasn't done anything to be considered an option Jimmy G: Not a viable starting option They aren't great options but they are options. I think Howell did enough to get a look with another team. I also think Mac Jones has done enough that another team may take a chance on him opposed to drafting someone who isn't as good. He could get the Mitch Trubisky treatment and get a chance somewhere that someone drafts a QB later. Pickett could get similar treatment by a team trying a reclamation project sort of like Baker Mayfield did last year. I think that Jimmy G will get a starting job for one of these teams that drafts their QB in round 2 or 3 as well. Lance sure hasn't shown much because of lack of opportunity but he was fine in his short stint enough that if a team isn't sold on these guys, they would give something little to take a chance on him. He is one day younger than Michael Penix and a few months younger than Bo Nix. If I can take a chance on Lance for a 7th rd pick or risk it with Penix or Nix, I would take Lance and his few years of experience. Its very similar to Jordan Love's situation and I am sure a lot of people would take Love. I will admit that I am lower on this QB class than most people. I think Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will both be busts. Caleb doesn't have the mentality to play in the NFL even if he has the arm talent. He also can't read defenses or anticipate which will get him killed in the pros. Maye is similar play wise, less arm talent but better mentally. If one of the two makes it as a starter, I think it will be him. Jayden Daniels is easily the top QB in this draft IMO. The next three are all below Will Levis in the prospect standing IMO and I think they deserve to go later like the other guys I have mentioned. I don't think any of them are anything more than backups and any team taking a chance on them will be picking a QB again in 2 or 3 years. One of them might become a Tyrod Taylor type who gets spot starts here and there but this is a very Kenny Pickettish QB draft IMO. And I think that these teams will see it, similarly to the other years that QBs dropped. So no, the guys I mentioned are not great options, but I think all are better options than the top 3, and probably better options than two of the top 3 since they take a lot of draft capital and expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2024 PRO DAY SCHEDULE March 5 Indiana March 7 Purdue March 8 Illinois (Johnny Newton) Monmouth (N.J.) Southeast Missouri State March 11 Oregon State (Fuaga) Western Michigan (Kneeland) March 12 Oklahoma Oregon (Powers-Johnson, K. Jackson) South Carolina (Legette) March 13 Arizona State Arkansas Georgia Michigan State March 14 Arizona Clemson Colorado Minnesota March 15 Penn State UCLA Wisconsin March 18 Colorado State Fresno State Georgia State Iowa Miami Syracuse Texas A&M Troy March 19 Toledo (Q Mitchell) Wyoming March 20 Alabama Connecticut Liberty Ohio State Texas USC March 21 California Eastern Kentucky Florida Holy Cross Houston Christian New Hampshire Notre Dame Rice Stanford Utah Virginia State March 22 Auburn Boston College Florida State Kentucky Michigan Missouri (D Robinson) March 25 Louisiana South Dakota South Dakota State Southern Mississippi Temple Western Kentucky March 26 Boise State Louisville Mississippi State N.C. State North Dakota State Tulane UTEP March 27 Big 12 pro day (offensive skill players and DBs report) LSU Mississippi Pittsburgh Tennessee Wake Forest Washington State March 28 Big 12 pro day (offensive skill players and DBs work out) Charlotte Duke Howard Marshall North Carolina Rutgers Washington March 29 Big 12 pro day (O-linemen, D-linemen, LBs, specialists report) Maryland March 30 Big 12 pro day (O-linemen, D-linemen, LBs, specialists work out) April 3 Yale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 I am not sure if anyone is interested but I read a pretty solid article on small-school prospects: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-ranking-top-25-small-college-prospects-including-wr-with-similar-traits-to-hall-of-famer/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 On 3/5/2024 at 5:07 PM, Sllim Pickens said: They aren't great options but they are options. I think Howell did enough to get a look with another team. I also think Mac Jones has done enough that another team may take a chance on him opposed to drafting someone who isn't as good. He could get the Mitch Trubisky treatment and get a chance somewhere that someone drafts a QB later. Pickett could get similar treatment by a team trying a reclamation project sort of like Baker Mayfield did last year. I think that Jimmy G will get a starting job for one of these teams that drafts their QB in round 2 or 3 as well. Lance sure hasn't shown much because of lack of opportunity but he was fine in his short stint enough that if a team isn't sold on these guys, they would give something little to take a chance on him. He is one day younger than Michael Penix and a few months younger than Bo Nix. If I can take a chance on Lance for a 7th rd pick or risk it with Penix or Nix, I would take Lance and his few years of experience. Its very similar to Jordan Love's situation and I am sure a lot of people would take Love. I will admit that I am lower on this QB class than most people. I think Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will both be busts. Caleb doesn't have the mentality to play in the NFL even if he has the arm talent. He also can't read defenses or anticipate which will get him killed in the pros. Maye is similar play wise, less arm talent but better mentally. If one of the two makes it as a starter, I think it will be him. Jayden Daniels is easily the top QB in this draft IMO. The next three are all below Will Levis in the prospect standing IMO and I think they deserve to go later like the other guys I have mentioned. I don't think any of them are anything more than backups and any team taking a chance on them will be picking a QB again in 2 or 3 years. One of them might become a Tyrod Taylor type who gets spot starts here and there but this is a very Kenny Pickettish QB draft IMO. And I think that these teams will see it, similarly to the other years that QBs dropped. So no, the guys I mentioned are not great options, but I think all are better options than the top 3, and probably better options than two of the top 3 since they take a lot of draft capital and expectations. I’m certainly not a Williams fan. Beyond what you’ve mentioned he’s also selfish which long term isn’t a great attribute. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said: I’m certainly not a Williams fan. Beyond what you’ve mentioned he’s also selfish which long term isn’t a great attribute. Thats part of the mentality I was mentioning. He seems very selfish, money driven, and arrogant. Those are not qualities that fly in an NFL locker room especially for a rookie. I also don't think he has shown the ability to deal with failure and bounce back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 (edited) So @Sllim Pickens and I are working in collaboration on the "Athletic Profiles" worksheet that I've used for probably the past 10 years? (it has been a while). It is on Google Sheets and something we could look to making more available to the group once it's finished to our liking. With that being said, I have spent a pretty solid amount of time on one particular position group. This started out as the "it's the smallest group so I should be able to knock this out quickly" into a multi-day addition and analysis. Centers (OC) Since 2018, there have been 5 1st round OC's taken 2018 - 2 (Ragnow and Price) 2019 - 1 (Bradburry) 2020 - 1 (Ruiz) 2021 - 0 2022 - 1 (Linderbaum) 2023 - 0 The total number of OC's taken in a class since 2018 is approximately 8 (20 and 21)with a range of 6 (19 and 22) to 11 (18) (9 in 2023). On average (outside of 2018) the first OC taken is within 4 picks of their consensus ADP. It has gradually gotten tighter and tighter (+8, +6, +6, +1, +1). The highest that an OC has been taken since 2009 is pick #18. 2024 Round 1 OC1 Jackson Powers-Johnson (23 ADP) Teams with a need at the position in that range (+8) Las Vegas (#13) Seattle (#16) Jacksonville (#17) Pittsburgh (#20) Miami (#21) Dallas (#24) Green Bay (#25) Tampa Bay (#26) Round 2 OC2 Zach Frazier (45 ADP) What I have seen is that OC2 does tend to rise up from their ADP after OC1 has been taken. We're generally seeing anything from +1 to +16. Frazier has the potential to rise anywhere from pick #44 to even our pick at #29. The 49ers have a need at IOL (pick 31), while the Panthers, Bears, Commanders, Cardinals, Giants are all teams early in round 2 that could look to address the position. RISERS Beaux Limmer (Arkansas) and Tanor Bortolini (Wisconsin) are two guys who are intriguing and could be strong additions to a roster. They're probably 3rd round guys that should rise above their 4th - 5th round ADP and be starters for their teams. FALLERS Sedrick Van Pran-Granger is a name that I see falling. He's on the smaller side (298) and is a marginal athlete. He had been discussed as a Round 1 pick at one point and is currently sitting with an ADP of 83. I can see him dropping further or being overdrafted on his name. PRO BOWL/ALL PRO PROFILES Height: 6'3 6/8 Avg (Min. 6'2, Max 6'5) Weight: 305 lbs Avg (Min. 280, Max 314) Arm Length: 32 6/8 (Min 31 1/8, Max 34) Hand Size: 9 7/8 (Min 9 2/8, Max 10 6/8) 40: 5.15 Avg (Min 5.58, Max 4.89) 10YS: 1.76 Avg (Min 1.91, Max 1.68) Vertical: 29.5" Avg (Min 24.5, Max 33.5) Bench: 28 Reps Avg (Min 21, Max 36) Broad: 104" (Min 93, Max 115) 3Cone: 7.65 Avg (Min 8.28, Max 7.14) SS: 4.60 Avg (Min 4.96, Max 4.14) Metrics (HASS = Height and Weight Adjusted) HASS Speed Score: 87.31 Avg (Min 64.78, Max 106.49) << Based on 40 Hass 10Yard Split: 78.73 Avg (Min 58.26, Max 96.70) << Based on 10 Yard Split HASS Strength: 110.84 Avg (Min 86.55, Max 138.90) << Based on bench press HASS Agility: 12.26 Avg (Min 13.51, Max 11.50) <<< Based on 3C and SS We are still missing some of the workout numbers, so this is an incomplete list. However, if we narrow down the guys based on what we do have it would look like right now: Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon Zach Frazier, West Virginia Nick Gargiulo, South Carolina Jacob Monk, Duke Edited March 8 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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