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Should Saints rebuild or are they close to being a NFC contender again?


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17 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

The median team has spent $155M in re-signings, extensions, and free agent acquisitions, so far this offseason. The Saints are currently 30th, at $44M. Now, that doesn't count Young yet, but it doesn't count more recent signings for a number of other teams as well, so so it goes. The only teams below them are the Chargers, who also made some hilariously short-sighted cap decisions that they wisely opted to pay for in one go this year, and the Cowboys, who have been almost historically inactive in free agency.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/offseason/

Making one (questionable, mind you) free agent acquisition does not represent a healthy and flexible cap situation. And I'm sure when the details come out, they'll be paying for most of this contract in future years too. If all $13M his this year, they likely wouldn't even be able to sign their rookie class.

The Saints have also never been huge free agent spenders. Dating back to 2009 our only really huge free agent moves were Drew Brees and Jarius Byrd (woof). They make money available when they have guys they really covet (Mathieu, Carr, Maye). 

 

Also, wrong about the last part. Only 5M of the contract is guaranteed. The rest is tied up in games played incentives.

 

Next year also is seemingly very easy to navigate. Even if the salary cap doesn't see a large jump, which seems unlikely, the Saints are a few moves away from being cap compliant. Releasing Cam Jordan post 6/1 seems like a no brainer at this point in his career. Trade Alvin Kamara, dreaded 30 for HB and Kendre Miller showed some explosive flashes last year. Kamara move is probably 50/50 as he still has some juice in the tank. Releasing Ryan Ramcyzk post 6/1 is a pretty likely move as he hasn't been the same guy since his knee injuries. Restructure Marshon Lattimore. These 4 moves get you cap compliant, and leave you with $72M of cap space in 2026. Thats obviously going to dwindle as they sign guys but it shouldn't get anywhere near the -50M+ they've been working with.

 

So, explain how we're in cap hell? With some seemingly no brainer moves we're clear and fine for the future. I'll say it until I'm blue in the face. The Saints issues haven't been salary cap related, they've been draft related. They have not hit on the positions they NEEDED to hit on. They've been an okay drafting team but have HUGE needs at DE and OT because they whiffed completely on those positions multiple times. Ramcyzk, Payton Turner and Davenport being complete and total busts to this point set the franchise back pretty far. It also hasn't helped that Dennis Allen is a below average HC and Pete Carmichael is a bottom 3 play caller in football.  

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1 minute ago, Kingram said:

The Saints have also never been huge free agent spenders. Dating back to 2009 our only really huge free agent moves were Drew Brees and Jarius Byrd (woof). They make money available when they have guys they really covet (Mathieu, Carr, Maye). 

I wonder why they might not be big offseason spenders. Could it be because they've already spent it all?

1 minute ago, Kingram said:

Also, wrong about the last part. Only 5M of the contract is guaranteed. The rest is tied up in games played incentives.

I never said anything about Chase Young's guarantees, so what are you saying I'm wrong on here? As I said, being able to sign one player for $13M does not mean you don't have cap problems. Almost every other team was able to spend more this offseason.

2 minutes ago, Kingram said:

Next year also is seemingly very easy to navigate. Even if the salary cap doesn't see a large jump, which seems unlikely, the Saints are a few moves away from being cap compliant. Releasing Cam Jordan post 6/1 seems like a no brainer at this point in his career. Trade Alvin Kamara, dreaded 30 for HB and Kendre Miller showed some explosive flashes last year. Kamara move is probably 50/50 as he still has some juice in the tank. Releasing Ryan Ramcyzk post 6/1 is a pretty likely move as he hasn't been the same guy since his knee injuries. Restructure Marshon Lattimore. These 4 moves get you cap compliant, and leave you with $72M of cap space in 2026. Thats obviously going to dwindle as they sign guys but it shouldn't get anywhere near the -50M+ they've been working with.

You still don't understand what a June 1st cut is. You don't get that cap space until June 1st. Hence the name. So those moves don't help you get cap compliant for March, April, and May, which you need to be. And you then have to account for the dead money that June 1st cuts push into the next year. If you June 1st cut Cam Jordan, yeah, that'll get you $12.5M in cap savings, but not until June. So you're still carrying his $20M hit from the start of the league year until then. And you're pushing about $15M in dead money into the next year, which you have to account for in your planning. June 1st cuts aren't magical solutions that solve everything.

This is my issue with your posts in this thread. You act like you're smarter than everyone, saying everybody else needs to educate themselves on the cap, when your own posts make it clear that you do not know how the cap works.

Also, no one in their right mind is trading for Kamara. You would need to give up draft picks to get someone to take that salary from you. That would need to be some Brock Osweiler kind of stuff. And cutting him saves the same amount for the Saints anyways, so not really sure the point of that?

3 minutes ago, Kingram said:

So, explain how we're in cap hell? With some seemingly no brainer moves we're clear and fine for the future. I'll say it until I'm blue in the face. The Saints issues haven't been salary cap related, they've been draft related. They have not hit on the positions they NEEDED to hit on. They've been an okay drafting team but have HUGE needs at DE and OT because they whiffed completely on those positions multiple times. Ramcyzk, Payton Turner and Davenport being complete and total busts to this point set the franchise back pretty far. It also hasn't helped that Dennis Allen is a below average HC and Pete Carmichael is a bottom 3 play caller in football.  

You can go back and look at my prior post where I went year by year with your suggestions of post-June 1st cutting Cam Jordan and Alvin Kamara to fix everything, to see how they'll still have cap issues and will continue restructuring deals and kicking the can down the road.

To be clear, they've had poor coaching decisions and personnel decisions as well. Those don't mean the cap isn't also a problem. Teams can have multiple problems at once.

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3 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Also, no one in their right mind is trading for Kamara.

Yep. No1 would take him for a 7th at this point. He’s worth more than that at face value, but no1 is gonna be willing to take him on bc his age and position.

Delusions are deep within us all. Some people have it down to a science. 

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1 hour ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Yep. No1 would take him for a 7th at this point. He’s worth more than that at face value, but no1 is gonna be willing to take him on bc his age and position.

Delusions are deep within us all. Some people have it down to a science. 

Then they can release him. Kind of an irrelevant thing to argue about. Point is he opens up cap space. 

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2 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I wonder why they might not be big offseason spenders. Could it be because they've already spent it all?

I never said anything about Chase Young's guarantees, so what are you saying I'm wrong on here? As I said, being able to sign one player for $13M does not mean you don't have cap problems. Almost every other team was able to spend more this offseason.

You still don't understand what a June 1st cut is. You don't get that cap space until June 1st. Hence the name. So those moves don't help you get cap compliant for March, April, and May, which you need to be. And you then have to account for the dead money that June 1st cuts push into the next year. If you June 1st cut Cam Jordan, yeah, that'll get you $12.5M in cap savings, but not until June. So you're still carrying his $20M hit from the start of the league year until then. And you're pushing about $15M in dead money into the next year, which you have to account for in your planning. June 1st cuts aren't magical solutions that solve everything.

This is my issue with your posts in this thread. You act like you're smarter than everyone, saying everybody else needs to educate themselves on the cap, when your own posts make it clear that you do not know how the cap works.

Also, no one in their right mind is trading for Kamara. You would need to give up draft picks to get someone to take that salary from you. That would need to be some Brock Osweiler kind of stuff. And cutting him saves the same amount for the Saints anyways, so not really sure the point of that?

You can go back and look at my prior post where I went year by year with your suggestions of post-June 1st cutting Cam Jordan and Alvin Kamara to fix everything, to see how they'll still have cap issues and will continue restructuring deals and kicking the can down the road.

To be clear, they've had poor coaching decisions and personnel decisions as well. Those don't mean the cap isn't also a problem. Teams can have multiple problems at once.

All of this was done on over the cap, so my numbers are reflective of the money being pushed into the future. Like I said to start, this is all based on the NFL salary cap taking a typical jump which is not what’s being predicted.  It jumped 30M this season and they’re projecting a similar bump next year. If that happens literally all they have to do is cut Kamara and restructure Lattimore. 
 

They’ve clearly been intentional in not pushing more money than necessary this season. “Cap Hell” is no more. 

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1 hour ago, Kingram said:

All of this was done on over the cap, so my numbers are reflective of the money being pushed into the future. Like I said to start, this is all based on the NFL salary cap taking a typical jump which is not what’s being predicted.  It jumped 30M this season and they’re projecting a similar bump next year. If that happens literally all they have to do is cut Kamara and restructure Lattimore. 
 

They’ve clearly been intentional in not pushing more money than necessary this season. “Cap Hell” is no more. 

Sure, there's definitely nothing cap hell about restructuring a twice injured 29 year old CB to barely get under the cap if there's a $30M salary cap jump (before factoring in 2 years worth of rookie classes.)

Ignore what everyone else sees as obvious all you want. Just don't act like the rest of the world is ignorant and you're the only one who sees the truth.

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51 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Sure, there's definitely nothing cap hell about restructuring a twice injured 29 year old CB to barely get under the cap if there's a $30M salary cap jump (before factoring in 2 years worth of rookie classes.)

Ignore what everyone else sees as obvious all you want. Just don't act like the rest of the world is ignorant and you're the only one who sees the truth.

Yeah. It’s one move and then you’re completely fine for the future. I mean I just laid out how easily they’re out of this “cap hell” and your issue now is that we have to restructure Marshon Lattimore to do it. You can replace him with a few other players if it helps, the point remains that they aren’t in cap hell. They pushed money into the future, sure. This never would’ve become an issue if the cap hadn’t randomly dropped because of COVID and it will be a complete non issue after next off-season unless they decide to make some large signings. 
 

Always appreciate the insight of others, we just don’t agree on this. 

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20 minutes ago, Kingram said:

Yeah. It’s one move and then you’re completely fine for the future. I mean I just laid out how easily they’re out of this “cap hell” and your issue now is that we have to restructure Marshon Lattimore to do it. You can replace him with a few other players if it helps, the point remains that they aren’t in cap hell. They pushed money into the future, sure. This never would’ve become an issue if the cap hadn’t randomly dropped because of COVID and it will be a complete non issue after next off-season unless they decide to make some large signings. 
 

Always appreciate the insight of others, we just don’t agree on this. 

This has been said multiple times, but cap hell is not being over the cap. Cutting players, restructuring players, those do not get you out of cap hell, they are a part of being in it. Those moves are the cap hell. Because you have to make those moves to get under the cap. When you ask other teams, with like one or two annual exceptions, hey, what multiple moves do you guys have to make next year to get under the cap? The answer is none. Your suggestions of hey, they just do this or that or this and that or those and they're voila, they're under the cap, that is the cap hell. You're in it. You're describing it! We've said repeatedly, cap hell is when your cap situation is dictating the moves you make. And then three posts later you say well as long as they do these moves they'll be under the cap. Yes! Exactly! That's the freaking point. That is why I say restructuring a 29 year old injury prone CB is cap hell. Because no sane team would do that if they didn't have to. The fact that you have to (or restructure multiple other players instead, it all points to the same thing) is the cap hell.

 

And to be clear, no matter what suggestions you go through to fix 2025, they don't fix it forever in one year. Which I already outlined in the first post I called you out for not replying to. 2026 they have $60M in projected cap space with 14 players under contract. And you want to push Marshon Lattimore money from 2025 into 2026. So that gets even lower. I'm sure you'll suggest further moves for how they can fix that, and that, again, has been the point all along.

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20 minutes ago, Kingram said:

Yeah. It’s one move and then you’re completely fine for the future. I mean I just laid out how easily they’re out of this “cap hell” and your issue now is that we have to restructure Marshon Lattimore to do it. You can replace him with a few other players if it helps, the point remains that they aren’t in cap hell. They pushed money into the future, sure. This never would’ve become an issue if the cap hadn’t randomly dropped because of COVID and it will be a complete non issue after next off-season unless they decide to make some large signings. 

You are acting like every NFL team does and has done what the Saints are doing. There are like 4-5 teams who have been “kicking the can” as a franchise and none of them even come close to what the Saints are going to be dealing with. Miami might eventually get to that breaking point too, but NO is far and away the worst positioned team as far as cap space and future flexibility.

It’s not like they’re not gonna get under the cap number by the start of the season. The problem is the fact that even at full strength/luck, this team is a fringe playoff team. And they have very little young ascending talent. Olave, great. Miller maybe. Breese is nice. And then…really not a lot of anything. 

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9 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

You are acting like every NFL team does and has done what the Saints are doing. There are like 4-5 teams who have been “kicking the can” as a franchise and none of them even come close to what the Saints are going to be dealing with. Miami might eventually get to that breaking point too, but NO is far and away the worst positioned team as far as cap space and future flexibility.

It’s not like they’re not gonna get under the cap number by the start of the season. The problem is the fact that even at full strength/luck, this team is a fringe playoff team. And they have very little young ascending talent. Olave, great. Miller maybe. Breese is nice. And then…really not a lot of anything. 

Adebo, Granderson, Howden, Werner, Shaheed. You not watching the Saints isn’t my problem. 

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13 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

This has been said multiple times, but cap hell is not being over the cap. Cutting players, restructuring players, those do not get you out of cap hell, they are a part of being in it. Those moves are the cap hell. Because you have to make those moves to get under the cap. When you ask other teams, with like one or two annual exceptions, hey, what multiple moves do you guys have to make next year to get under the cap? The answer is none. Your suggestions of hey, they just do this or that or this and that or those and they're voila, they're under the cap, that is the cap hell. You're in it. You're describing it! We've said repeatedly, cap hell is when your cap situation is dictating the moves you make. And then three posts later you say well as long as they do these moves they'll be under the cap. Yes! Exactly! That's the freaking point. That is why I say restructuring a 29 year old injury prone CB is cap hell. Because no sane team would do that if they didn't have to. The fact that you have to (or restructure multiple other players instead, it all points to the same thing) is the cap hell.

 

And to be clear, no matter what suggestions you go through to fix 2025, they don't fix it forever in one year. Which I already outlined in the first post I called you out for not replying to. 2026 they have $60M in projected cap space with 14 players under contract. And you want to push Marshon Lattimore money from 2025 into 2026. So that gets even lower. I'm sure you'll suggest further moves for how they can fix that, and that, again, has been the point all along.

They have 27 players under contract for 2026. Making one move to push a small amount of cap space into the future isn’t cap hell. We just see this differently. You can absolutely “kick the can” if the salary cap continues to rise. We’re going in circles at this point. 

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Just now, Kingram said:

They have 27 players under contract for 2026. Making one move to push a small amount of cap space into the future isn’t cap hell. We just see this differently. You can absolutely “kick the can” if the salary cap continues to rise. We’re going in circles at this point. 

Look again, man. Like, really look. Aren't void years fun? Because unless you think those 13 players are going to play for the Saints for a $0 salary, you might need to educate yourself.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints

 

Last time I'm replying to you in this topic. I've said what I need to for anyone else who is reading who is actually willing to listen.

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5 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Look again, man. Like, really look. Aren't void years fun? Because unless you think those 13 players are going to play for the Saints for a $0 salary, you might need to educate yourself.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints

 

Last time I'm replying to you in this topic. I've said what I need to for anyone else who is reading who is actually willing to listen.

Ok. U win. 

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