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Should Saints rebuild or are they close to being a NFC contender again?


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1 minute ago, Kingram said:

The Saints cap situation is completely fine and not the reason they’re struggling. Cutting everyone and restarting does literally nothing except really make them suck. One good draft and they can control the division for the next 3-4 years lol. 

Most people aren't saying the Saints should cut everyone right now; not sure why you're countering my post with that. Rather, others and I understand the repeated restructures from this regime have been/are/and (especially) will be crippling. 

Your refusal to acknowledge this doesn't bother me (or most others). Have faith in your team - that's good. Most of us are just here for the humor in this futility.

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47 minutes ago, Duluther said:

Most people aren't saying the Saints should cut everyone right now; not sure why you're countering my post with that. Rather, others and I understand the repeated restructures from this regime have been/are/and (especially) will be crippling. 

Your refusal to acknowledge this doesn't bother me (or most others). Have faith in your team - that's good. Most of us are just here for the humor in this futility.

Yeah the problem is you ignore the fact that the Saints are fine for the future. If they release Cam Jordan and Alvin Kamara next year, they’re legitimately clear of this “cap hell”. It’s just not a stance based in reality. It’s based in you knowing less about how the salary cap and contracts work than Mickey Loomis. After next season they don’t have to push any money into the future to get cap compliant, unless they do so willingly.

You’ll keep banging your head against the wall though because there is more humor in that. 

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1 hour ago, Kingram said:

Yeah the problem is you ignore the fact that the Saints are fine for the future. If they release Cam Jordan and Alvin Kamara next year, they’re legitimately clear of this “cap hell”. It’s just not a stance based in reality. It’s based in you knowing less about how the salary cap and contracts work than Mickey Loomis. After next season they don’t have to push any money into the future to get cap compliant, unless they do so willingly.

You’ll keep banging your head against the wall though because there is more humor in that. 

The thing where you seem to be banging your own head against the wall here, is in not really grasping what people are talking about when they say, "cap hell".

It's not literally being unable to get compliant by cutting guys, restructuring, kicking money down the road...using all of the many various tools available that lead to the salary cap being largely made up and imaginary.

 

It's about the fact that the Saints are in a position, and will continue to be in a position where their "not good enough for the playoffs" team is having it's moves and even just the broader overall "direction" of the team dictated by cap realities and liabilities.  There is plenty of flexibility to "make it work" as is, and hope that a wildly historically great draft saves them...but there is basically zero flexibility to go out and significantly reshape the roster right now, or in the near future in an aspirational way...because of the cap implications hanging over everything like a Sword of Damocles.

Cap hell is being stuck in the middle, on the outside looking in...without the financial flexibility to meaningfully change it.  And the Saints right now, are the absolute epitome of that situation.

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13 hours ago, Kingram said:

They’re literally fine. I beg people to educate themselves. If they Post June 1st cut Cam Jordan (washed) and Alvin Kamara (dreaded 30) next year they’re almost cap compliant and have effectively ended the stretch of pushing money into the future. 
 

The Saints cap situation is completely fine and not the reason they’re struggling. Cutting everyone and restarting does literally nothing except really make them suck. One good draft and they can control the division for the next 3-4 years lol. 

If you post June 1st cut both of them next year, that adds ~$21M in dead money to the 2026 cap, in exchange for saving $37.5M in 2025. That would still leave the team $23M over the cap in 2025, and that's with only 38 players on roster after those two cuts, so you need to account for this year's rookies and next year's rookies, and any other additions. So you likely need to clear another $40M at minimum, but more likely north of $50M - $60M, and that's after the cuts of both Kamara and Jordan. How will they do that? More restructures pushing more of that in 2026 and beyond. Now, 2026 currently projects to about $58M in cap space. Just a projection, could be more or less, but we'll use that as a starting point. Now, we already pushed $21M in dead cap to that year to cut Jordan and Kamara like you suggest. So we're closer to $37M now. But that's with only 14 players under contract for that season. That $37M isn't even going to fill out the roster with minimum salary and rookie deal players. So we need to make more room. And how will we do that?

 

Two cuts ain't ending the cycle.

 

Also, less crucial to my point but still relevant, June 1st cutting Cam Jordan and Alvin Kamara does nothing to get you cap compliant in March. That's not how that works. Even if you designate them as June 1st cuts in March, you still carry their normal cap charges until you actually get to June 1st. It provides no relief prior to that point, so you still need to find other ways to get under the cap to start the league year. So, you might be wrong on who needs to educate themselves.

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4 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

If you post June 1st cut both of them next year, that adds ~$21M in dead money to the 2026 cap, in exchange for saving $37.5M in 2025. That would still leave the team $23M over the cap in 2025, and that's with only 38 players on roster after those two cuts, so you need to account for this year's rookies and next year's rookies, and any other additions. So you likely need to clear another $40M at minimum, but more likely north of $50M - $60M, and that's after the cuts of both Kamara and Jordan. How will they do that? More restructures pushing more of that in 2026 and beyond. Now, 2026 currently projects to about $58M in cap space. Just a projection, could be more or less, but we'll use that as a starting point. Now, we already pushed $21M in dead cap to that year to cut Jordan and Kamara like you suggest. So we're closer to $37M now. But that's with only 14 players under contract for that season. That $37M isn't even going to fill out the roster with minimum salary and rookie deal players. So we need to make more room. And how will we do that?

 

Two cuts ain't ending the cycle.

 

Also, less crucial to my point but still relevant, June 1st cutting Cam Jordan and Alvin Kamara does nothing to get you cap compliant in March. That's not how that works. Even if you designate them as June 1st cuts in March, you still carry their normal cap charges until you actually get to June 1st. It provides no relief prior to that point, so you still need to find other ways to get under the cap to start the league year. So, you might be wrong on who needs to educate themselves.

Your numbers don’t account for the Michael Thomas release.

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The Saints absolutely should tear it down and reset the books, but they won't. Their only real hope going forward is finding a legit starting QB late in the first or in the mid rounds and building around that. They aren't doing anything with how their current roster is constructed and I think their division continues to improve around them while they stagnate/get worse.

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3 minutes ago, Kingram said:

Your numbers don’t account for the Michael Thomas release.

They do. They're pulled straight from OverTheCap, which is updated for his release, which as a June 1st designation has him costing $9M and some change in dead cap for 2025. 

All that release does is gets them a little over $1M in cap space this coming June. Sure, they could roll that over, I guess, but that's not moving the needle anywhere. The June 1st designation just means instead of taking $20M in dead cap this year, they'll take $11M this year and $9M next year. Give or take a few hundred grand.

And honestly, even if it didn't account for it, doesn't move the needle or change the point anyway. One cut doesn't really make a material difference when we're talking about a team needing to trim like $90M next offseason to field a roster. Especially with the dead money that New Orleans gets from cutting basically anybody.

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I think the biggest issue with kicking the can down the road is you're keeping these players who some are good, but you'll never bottom out because of that and so you have a lower chance of getting a good QB prospect.

It doesn't help that the past few drafts have been merely ok.

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1 hour ago, General Tso said:

I think the biggest issue with kicking the can down the road is you're keeping these players who some are good, but you'll never bottom out because of that and so you have a lower chance of getting a good QB prospect.

It doesn't help that the past few drafts have been merely ok.

See, I disagree with this completely. I think it’s a much better approach to remain a team that competes for a playoff spot. Panthers bottomed out and that team doesn’t even look close to competing anytime soon. Bears, Jets, Jaguars. Saints still have a great defense and some really nice offensive pieces. A better HC and they’re in the playoffs the last two years. 

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6 minutes ago, Kingram said:

See, I disagree with this completely. I think it’s a much better approach to remain a team that competes for a playoff spot. Panthers bottomed out and that team doesn’t even look close to competing anytime soon. Bears, Jets, Jaguars. Saints still have a great defense and some really nice offensive pieces. A better HC and they’re in the playoffs the last two years. 

None of these teams had a QB that produced at a championship caliber.

Sometimes you can luck into one like the 49ers, but they also tried for Trey Lance and I think that was the right thought process.

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1 minute ago, General Tso said:

None of these teams had a QB that produced at a championship caliber.

Sometimes you can luck into one like the 49ers, but they also tried for Trey Lance and I think that was the right thought process.

Yes. Being a competitive team and then going for the QB you think is the guy. I agree. That’s essentially what the Saints are doing. The roster isn’t bad, I’d argue it’s top half of the league. The coaching staff stinks and Carr is an above average QB. Eventually they’ll try and find THE guy but I don’t think blowing it all up and starting from scratch is an effective way to build a SB team. 

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5 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

They do. They're pulled straight from OverTheCap, which is updated for his release, which as a June 1st designation has him costing $9M and some change in dead cap for 2025. 

All that release does is gets them a little over $1M in cap space this coming June. Sure, they could roll that over, I guess, but that's not moving the needle anywhere. The June 1st designation just means instead of taking $20M in dead cap this year, they'll take $11M this year and $9M next year. Give or take a few hundred grand.

And honestly, even if it didn't account for it, doesn't move the needle or change the point anyway. One cut doesn't really make a material difference when we're talking about a team needing to trim like $90M next offseason to field a roster. Especially with the dead money that New Orleans gets from cutting basically anybody.

 

Exactly the bolded.  Regardless of the details of which specific players are being talked about here and the nitpicking of which money is kicked to where...the fundamental crux of the whole discussion is that it's focused around "who can be cut to get compliant without getting too much worse" for a team that is already not good enough in the first place.  Rather than the whole discussion being framed around, "who are they cutting and adding to improve the team and make it much better".  That's a fundamentally different team building paradigm.  That's "Cap Hell" incarnate.  It's being handcuffed to certain decisions rather than having the flexibility to go out and freely add and subtract to build the team you want.

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At the very least the Saints need to "take their medicine" for a year or two and let the books clear up. Get over that alcoholics hangover and come out nice and fresh. Whether that entails a full rebuild whose to say, stop paying too much to random dudes and aging players

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On 3/14/2024 at 4:07 PM, Kingram said:

The roster isn’t bad, I’d argue it’s top half of the league. 

I'd like to hear your arguments as to why you think the Saints are in the top half in the league regarding to the strength of their roster because that seems a very dubious at first glance. They're fighting for 2nd or 3rd position on the NFC South, the weakest division in football. I'd have to think they'd make the playoffs in their situation if they had a top 16 roster personally.  

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35 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

I'd like to hear your arguments as to why you think the Saints are in the top half in the league regarding to the strength of their roster because that seems a very dubious at first glance. They're fighting for 2nd or 3rd position on the NFC South, the weakest division in football. I'd have to think they'd make the playoffs in their situation if they had a top 16 roster personally.  

Dennis Allen is a below average HC and Pete Carmichael was a bottom 3 OC in football. Coaching is pretty important in the NFL.

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