Tua Secures the Bag - 4 year extension

[Trojan]

31 minutes ago, Soko said:

You don’t understand why it’s a bad thing that the QB shrinks against better teams? Who do you think they’ll be playing in the postseason? 

It wasn’t just the postseason. One seed still in play (IIRC), how was the Baltimore game? Trounced. Two seed (IIRC) and the division on the line, at home vs Buffalo? Shrunk, swept after the beatdown vs Buffalo earlier in the season. At Philly? Couldn’t move the ball. But hey, they really beat the crap out of Denver, Washington, LA, and Carolina.

Mahomes also has a massive track record of great games vs good competition/incredible success in the postseason. Does Tua? Yeah, big deal because he’s not Mahomes, but you’re the one who brought him up.

MVP candidate is being used pretty loosely here, I guess. Tua got no votes last year (where he headed one of the most talented offenses, in what most consider a down year as far as MVPs go), and one non-first place vote in 2022. 1 of 15 players (and 9 QBs) to receive such an honor, along with fellow “MVP candidates” Justin Fields and Geno Smith. So are you okay with paying QBs to be never really close to winning MVP + being questionable at best vs good teams, or are you happier paying QBs who you’re confident in vs the better competition? Tua lit the 22’ Ravens up almost two years ago. Since then, what’s he done that shows he isn’t a question mark come postseason time/in high stakes games?

As far as Lawrence and Herbert go, you’re asking the wrong person. I’m against paying Trevor that much at this time, and Herbert hasn’t lived up to his deal thus far. I’m not huge on the Goff deal either (although he’s shown more than Tua), so yeah, barking up the wrong tree there.

I’m not saying Tua is a bad player. He’s a good quarterback that, thus far, has not shown up much vs teams he’s going to have to beat in the playoffs. I’m scared to death after committing huge dollars to that QB. Maybe he gets better, maybe he never does. But he looks like QB purgatory - good enough to get you to the postseason but not good enough where he’s going to take the bull by the horns and make some noise in the playoffs. Fine taking your shots with that guy when he’s cheap, but much scarier when he’s making top dollar. You’re hoping he becomes someone that he’s never shown to be. Not a risk I’d take. 

Literally every player you've posted has gotten paid, why would it be bad to pay Tua? When Carr's rookie deal expired he became the top paid QB. Jordan Love is the top paid QB now. Joe Burrow was the top paid and he has injury concerns and also arguably the top WR corps in the NFL. The end of season two bad performances with Tua also had no Jaylen Waddle. Lamar was considered a choker in the playoffs and got the fat deal. Lawrence has one sick playoff preformance against the Chargers where Herbert, also paid, blew a gigantic lead. Kyler Murray hasn't done much and is paid close to Tua. Why in the world would the Dolphins not extend him? You brought up Geno and the Seahawks paid him for that, so I don't get the criticism of what Tua has done to not be worthy of his probably honestly slightly below market deal?

[Soko]

Just now, Trojan said:

Literally every player you've posted has gotten paid, why would it be bad to pay Tua? When Carr's rookie deal expired he became the top paid QB. Jordan Love is the top paid QB now. Joe Burrow was the top paid and he has injury concerns and also arguably the top WR corps in the NFL. The end of season two bad performances with Tua also had no Jaylen Waddle. Lamar was considered a choker in the playoffs and got the fat deal. Lawrence has one sick playoff preformance against the Chargers where Herbert, also paid, blew a gigantic lead. Kyler Murray hasn't done much and is paid close to Tua. Why in the world would the Dolphins not extend him? You brought up Geno and the Seahawks paid him for that, so I don't get the criticism of what Tua has done to not be worthy of his probably honestly slightly below market deal?

You’d have incredibly strong points if I was defending all those deals? Kinda strawmanning here. 

Burrow’s shown more in the postseason, I’d be confident in him. I already addressed Lamar, not confident in him in the postseason either but at least he’s shown legitimate MVP seasons, unlike anyone else there.

[Trojan]

2 minutes ago, Soko said:

You’d have incredibly strong points if I was defending all those deals? Kinda strawmanning here. 

Burrow’s shown more in the postseason, I’d be confident in him. I already addressed Lamar, not confident in him in the postseason either but at least he’s shown legitimate MVP seasons, unlike anyone else there.

I am not trying to strawman, just responding to "Why should anyone feel optimistic about paying that guy top 4 QB money?".
He deserves top 4 QB money because of the reasons I posted. Every other QB anywhere near his success that remains on the team that drafted them gets paid as a top 4 QB. The QBs that get paid a lower more reasonable number usually fail out of their first team then find some success somewhere else and get a Geno/Baker deal with a Tannehill/Carr being kinda the high end of that type. Why would Tua accept that type of extension instead of a normal in line with everyone else that Burrow/Love/Mahomes/Allen/Jackson/Hurts/Russ/Watson/Kyler/literally all successful QB draft picks? Paying your franchise QB a top 4 QB money extension after their rookie deal is normal.

[Soko]

5 minutes ago, Trojan said:

I am not trying to strawman, just responding to "Why should anyone feel optimistic about paying that guy top 4 QB money?".
He deserves top 4 QB money because of the reasons I posted. Every other QB anywhere near his success that remains on the team that drafted them gets paid as a top 4 QB. The QBs that get paid a lower more reasonable number usually fail out of their first team then find some success somewhere else and get a Geno/Baker deal with a Tannehill/Carr being kinda the high end of that type. Why would Tua accept that type of extension instead of a normal in line with everyone else that Burrow/Love/Mahomes/Allen/Jackson/Hurts/Russ/Watson/Kyler/literally all successful QB draft picks? Paying your franchise QB a top 4 QB money extension after their rookie deal is normal.

I’m not debating the market. The market is the market, there’s no conversation to be had there. If I’m Tua, Tua’s agent, Tua’s 5th cousin, whatever - I’m making sure he gets that bag. 

I’m talking from a practical NFL fan POV, though. Aside from “the market is the market”, why would I (or the Dolphins really) feel good about paying a guy top of the market money, when he’s shown serious concerns as far as getting to/winning a championship?

[Trojan]

7 minutes ago, Soko said:

I’m not debating the market. The market is the market, there’s no conversation to be had there. If I’m Tua, Tua’s agent, Tua’s 5th cousin, whatever - I’m making sure he gets that bag. 

I’m talking from a practical NFL fan POV, though. Aside from “the market is the market”, why would I (or the Dolphins really) feel good about paying a guy top of the market money, when he’s shown serious concerns as far as getting to/winning a championship?

I don't know what team you are a fan of, but for example I am a Raider fan. The Derek Carr years are the best we've had since I was in middle school and it isn't close. I was heartbroken when he was benched and it was clear McDaniels was getting rid of him (I hated the McDaniels and Gruden hires). Derek never played in the playoffs for us because he broke his leg that one time the Texans beat the pee out of Connor Cook. Paying Derek top QB money to have a potentially competent team was a godsend. You can be a terrible team, and draft consistently high and never get a Derek Carr tier QB. I was cool with the Raiders moving up for Herbert, Tua or Jordan Love in 2020, but if we just drafted Carr and said he's maybe top 10 in 2017/2018 lets let him walk instead of pay him top of the market I would have been pissed. I don't think Dolphins fans would be mad at paying Tua top 4 or top 10 QB money in a year or two. They lose maybe Christian Wilkins in FA or something to retain Tua and his receivers. Whatever. We got Wilkins and I hope he works, but I'd rather have Tua. I am happy for Dolphins fans that they get their window of competence and I think Tua can go to a SB, it won't be easy, but I think he is capable.

[Soko]

12 minutes ago, Trojan said:

I think Tua can go to a SB, it won't be easy, but I think he is capable.

Why, though? He’s already been in the “shiny, new car” offense and the results vs playoff teams hasn’t been there. It could change, it very well could, but why should I feel confident that it will, based on what we’ve seen? Is the cast going to get even better (it’s already gotten worse), as the cap situation gets worse?

As for the other part of your post, yes, watching a playoffish contender is infinitely more entertaining than watching a team lose for 10, 15, 20 years, even if the former never gets there. But that shouldn’t be the goal - championships still need to be the goal. I don’t think Chargers fans or Cowboys fans look back at the last 20 years and come away satisfied that at least they were competitive most of the time.

[Trojan]

22 minutes ago, Soko said:

Why, though? He’s already been in the “shiny, new car” offense and the results vs playoff teams hasn’t been there. It could change, it very well could, but why should I feel confident that it will, based on what we’ve seen? Is the cast going to get even better (it’s already gotten worse), as the cap situation gets worse?

As for the other part of your post, yes, watching a playoffish contender is infinitely more entertaining than watching a team lose for 10, 15, 20 years, even if the former never gets there. But that shouldn’t be the goal - championships still need to be the goal. I don’t think Chargers fans or Cowboys fans look back at the last 20 years and come away satisfied that at least they were competitive most of the time.

I think we just left the Tom Brady era and it is looking like Mahomes is the new Brady. It's going to be insanely hard for anyone to win the SB while the guy exists playing at his level with the coach too. Is he capable though? I don't see why not. Tua was on fire the year before last until the back to back concussions, and then a third late in the year right? He threw a ton of picks immediately following concussions and blew those games, but assuming he isn't concussed he's been a fantastic QB. He lost to the Bills last year, they were a fantastic team. They lost to the Eagles last year before the Eagles started to slip. They lost to the Chiefs by a touchdown, that's fine. They lost to the Titans by a point, and then to the Bills again and Ravens without Waddle where MVP Lamar threw 5 TDs. Losing to MVPs and Josh Allen who is basically an MVP without the title isn't horrible. The guy wins, he didn't win last year but he stayed healthy. I see no reason why he can't stay healthy flip maybe one of the Bills games to a Dolphins win and then not get beat by the Chiefs in KC in the icy weather and let the other great AFC teams weaken KC a bit while making a run through the other side. He's got the best offensive system and it's the representative of that system in the AFC and he appears to be an ascending master of that system. The Dolphins D will need to tighten up a lot to make a championship run, but it doesn't look bad to me. The Shiny new Shanny offense has been two years. Shanahan with the 49ers went 6-10, then 4-12, drafted Bosa then went on an almost dynasty like run. If Jalen Ramsey comes back to form and if their rushers get and stay healthy their defense might have potential Weaver has a lot of potential as DC.

I hate the Chargers, but of my friends that are fans none of them seem disappointed in the Rivers/Herbert era. Maybe the narrative changes when they go from talking to a Raiders fan instead of a Chiefs fan (or Manning era Broncos) or something. Cowboys fans are irrational and never happy. Obviously a championship is the goal, but I don't view seasons as there being only one successful team. There's one champion, sure, but probably 10-12 successful teams that can point to something and be happy about it. Dolphins fans wouldn't say Marino not having a ring makes him not one of the GOATs. I'd be optimistic if I was a Dolphins fan and happy the team didn't blow the window moving on from Tua (imagine if they did the Watson trade!?).

[Soko]

35 minutes ago, Trojan said:

I think we just left the Tom Brady era and it is looking like Mahomes is the new Brady. It's going to be insanely hard for anyone to win the SB while the guy exists playing at his level with the coach too. Is he capable though? I don't see why not. Tua was on fire the year before last until the back to back concussions, and then a third late in the year right? He threw a ton of picks immediately following concussions and blew those games, but assuming he isn't concussed he's been a fantastic QB. He lost to the Bills last year, they were a fantastic team. They lost to the Eagles last year before the Eagles started to slip. They lost to the Chiefs by a touchdown, that's fine. They lost to the Titans by a point, and then to the Bills again and Ravens without Waddle where MVP Lamar threw 5 TDs. Losing to MVPs and Josh Allen who is basically an MVP without the title isn't horrible. The guy wins, he didn't win last year but he stayed healthy. I see no reason why he can't stay healthy flip maybe one of the Bills games to a Dolphins win and then not get beat by the Chiefs in KC in the icy weather and let the other great AFC teams weaken KC a bit while making a run through the other side. 

If your only reason for optimism is “why not?” then that’s probably all she wrote for this one. I see past evidence of issues against playoff teams, particularly AFC playoff teams. A 1-7 record vs playoff teams does not ignite optimism in me, but to each their own at this point. Being good against almost only bad teams, while shrinking vs good teams, doesn’t really tell me that that guy’s going to be a driving force of a championship.

Lost the Chiefs? Eh, they’re the Chiefs, who doesn’t lose to the Chiefs! Swept by the Bills with the 2 seed and the division on the line? Eliteish QB, division rivals, it happens! Lose to the Ravens with the 1 seed in play? Lamar was basically MVP and that defense was top notch. Lose to Philly? The most recent NFC champ? No problem, no problem. Except those are the types of teams that they’re going to have to beat to win a SB. And not just one, once in a while. Like 3, 4, 5 of those teams - in a row. Miami only topped off Dallas, who’s honestly in a semi similar boat but has way more talent.

35 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Obviously a championship is the goal, but I don't view seasons as there being only one successful team. There's one champion, sure, but probably 10-12 successful teams that can point to something and be happy about it. Dolphins fans wouldn't say Marino not having a ring makes him not one of the GOATs. I'd be optimistic if I was a Dolphins fan and happy the team didn't blow the window moving on from Tua (imagine if they did the Watson trade!?).

I agree that success, for some teams, is a spectrum. The Panthers missing the playoffs but going 9-8, would be a successful season for them, sure. But no, being the 2000s/2010s Chargers  or Cowboys is not successful. You have quality QB play, HOFers, extremely talented rosters littered throughout those years, and you don’t even have an appearance to show for it. Couldn’t even get to the dance over 25ish years. That’s not success. Marino never winning a championship is absolutely a disappointment on his resume.

If winning the SB is the goal, then giving Tua this mega deal should make you nervous. If just being a pretty good team and praying he catches lightning in a bottle at some point is the goal, then they nailed the signing.

[TheKillerNacho]

15 hours ago, Trojan said:

Whats the deal with some much hate for Tua? He's exactly the QB I'd want if I didn't have basically Mahomes/Allen/Jackson. Like I wouldn't replace Hurts with Tua if I was the Eagles, but if I had Tua I wouldn't want to replace him with Hurts either. There's nothing wrong with Tua. He has some limitations, but plenty of great QBs have had limitations. It'd be nice to see success in the cold before paying, but Carr never had success in the cold and has earned multiple 100mil deals. Tua is an MVP candidate in his situation. You pay people that are MVP candidates in their situation. He's somewhere between the 4th and 16th best QB in the league and his deal reflects that. CJ Stroud going to be a billionaire if he keeps it up though lmao.

His timing, accuracy, and release speed is invaluable to McDaniel's offensive scheme, so he's definitely not as expendable as some people are saying here.

The injury history is a legitimate concern though, obviously, but we were able to avoid resetting the market at least (this time next year, this contract will barely be top 10 in annual value, I'd wager). If he stays healthy, it's a bargain imo (but that's no guarantee).

[Xmad]

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

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[BroncoSojia]

On 7/26/2024 at 10:45 PM, Trojan said:

Whats the deal with some much hate for Tua? He's exactly the QB I'd want if I didn't have basically Mahomes/Allen/Jackson. Like I wouldn't replace Hurts with Tua if I was the Eagles, but if I had Tua I wouldn't want to replace him with Hurts either. There's nothing wrong with Tua. He has some limitations, but plenty of great QBs have had limitations. It'd be nice to see success in the cold before paying, but Carr never had success in the cold and has earned multiple 100mil deals. Tua is an MVP candidate in his situation. You pay people that are MVP candidates in their situation. He's somewhere between the 4th and 16th best QB in the league and his deal reflects that. CJ Stroud going to be a billionaire if he keeps it up though lmao.

I don't hate the guy, It's just that he doesn't make any plays out of the structure of the offense, and that's a major concern if you're going to pay him top 5 QB money. He also hasn't shown that he can play well against decent teams.

BTW, I personally have him between 10 and 20 in the QB rankings and it's near 20.

 

Edit: I would no doubt take Hurts over Tua and Tyreek Hill was more of a MVP candidate than Tua last season.

Edited July 28 by BroncoSojia

[43M]

I wouldnt like this deal much, but seeing as how a far less proven player just got paid more than him, it doesn't seem so bad.

[FalconFan13]

Man that cousins contract looking better and better by the day and we haven't even started into it yet lol.    Cousins is atleast as good if not better than alot of those guys making way more money right now.

[WizeGuy]

On 7/26/2024 at 5:43 PM, TheKillerNacho said:

I know some will meme and criticize, but I'm pretty pleased with this. It's a reasonable deal.

Yeah, it's reasonable. He's a borderline top-10 QB and is being paid like one now.

The issue isn't the contract, it's that he's in the same conference as Allen, Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, etc...so I don't think the Dolphins are ever going to be threat for an AFC title with Tua as their QB, but what are they supposed to do? The only other option is to move on from Tua, suck for a bit, draft another QB, and pray to the football gods that QB is elite, which is far from guaranteed. They're actually more likely to draft a QB who turns out worse than Tua.

Tua at least gets them to the playoffs consistently, which does give them a chance to win it all even if those odds are slim. 

Edited July 29 by WizeGuy

[WizeGuy]

On 7/26/2024 at 6:37 PM, Nex_Gen said:

Pretty much where I stand. At some point one of these teams who possess any semblance of an average QB needs to put their foot down and stop overpricing the market. Do they honestly think it's a flex?

Nah. It's because the alternative is too risky.