Packers extend QB Jordan Love (4 years, $220M, $155M gtd)

[Dbrog24]

I mean....this is absolutely based on potential rather than what he's actually shown right? Pretty much every list out there and even discussions here have him just outside top10 qbs in the league.

I've watched almost every game of his career and he certainly shows some great potential and I personally value his ability to get the whole team involved, not just 1 or 2 guys like late-stage Rodgers did. However he also has moments, even games where he looks very pedestrian and the offense stalls.

I get why they are giving him this deal but man....just feels way too soon for a deal like this and I think the more concerning part is that Love was playing hardball to get it. Makes me concerned how much drama he picked up from Rodgers.

Anyway, Packers are so young that they can hopefully wait long enough on paying their other very promising guys. I could absolutely see a situation where this love deal puts em in cap hell and affects their ability to compete just as they are hitting their championship window. I guess we'll see

Edited July 27 by Dbrog24

[Jameson_Neat]

9 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

One of Jordan Love's armpit hairs has more arm talent than Goff and Cousins.

I'd guess anyone who put up high 20s/low 30s TDs and threw less than 10-12 INTs  have had similar 8-10 game runs. Opens it up to guys like Alex Smith as well.

 

[Packerraymond]

12 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said:

I'd guess anyone who put up high 20s/low 30s TDs and threw less than 10-12 INTs  have had similar 8-10 game runs. Opens it up to guys like Alex Smith as well.

 

Contracts aren't given out solely for stats.

[chiefs82]

Mulugheta goated

[CWood21]

41 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said:

I'd guess anyone who put up high 20s/low 30s TDs and threw less than 10-12 INTs  have had similar 8-10 game runs. Opens it up to guys like Alex Smith as well.

Let's go with that assumption.  How many of those guys had that kind of production in their first year as a starting QB?  Alex Smith only eclipsed 25+ TDs once in his career, and that was his 13th year in the league.  Jared Goff's 2nd season (first full season as a starting QB) in the league had similar season numbers as Love did last year.  But the problem was that Goff struggled with turnovers his final 3 seasons with the Rams.  And aside from their 2 games against Chicago this year, Goff has done a great job of limiting his interceptions.  And Jared Goff got rewarded with a 4 year, $212M contract extension.  Seems pretty clear that Goff is the Packers' "floor" for Love. 

[PossibleCabbage]

I mean, I'm way more comfortable paying this deal to Love than I would be paying Lawrence or Tua's deal.  The thing about "small sample size" is that basically you've seen anybody do on film multiple times is something that player is capable of doing again, where small sample size hurts you is "you don't really have good information on how often he's going to be able to do that" but high variance QBs do get paid and sometimes win championships.  But if that's the level Love just normally plays at when he's dialed in, watch out.

Plus some amount of "how comfortable you are giving a guy a ton of money" is dependent on the actual human being, and Love seems like a guy you can bet on and he'll make good.  Like the reason that Josh Allen is a good football player and not a punchline about "overthrowing 16 foot tall receivers" is that he put in the work because of who he is.  We know for sure Love has the tools, so the rest is on him.

[Refugee]

20 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, I'm way more comfortable paying this deal to Love than I would be paying Lawrence or Tua's deal.  The thing about "small sample size" is that basically you've seen anybody do on film multiple times is something that player is capable of doing again, where small sample size hurts you is "you don't really have good information on how often he's going to be able to do that" but high variance QBs do get paid and sometimes win championships.  But if that's the level Love just normally plays at when he's dialed in, watch out.

Plus some amount of "how comfortable you are giving a guy a ton of money" is dependent on the actual human being, and Love seems like a guy you can bet on and he'll make good.  Like the reason that Josh Allen is a good football player and not a punchline about "overthrowing 16 foot tall receivers" is that he put in the work because of who he is.  We know for sure Love has the tools, so the rest is on him.

I have no question he’s wired the right way and his story to get to this point is not one for the weak of heart. Money and fame can bring a whole different kind of pressure but coach said if he starts changing up, he’s calling his mom. Future is bright in GB. 

[squire12]

all large player contracts come with a risk of that contract being a big negative if things go bad.  there is no real escaping that.

the flip side of doing these big QB contracts is playing the waiting game and getting a bigger sample size.  Not sure where the cutoff of how many games becomes a proper sample size that would then make the deal OK to do.  for those who have taken an issue with the small sample size, I did not see any suggestion as to how many more games would meet the threshold.   

If GB (or any other team in this situation.... JAX, MIA this offseason), playing the waiting game means a likely FT for the 2025 season.  QB Franchise tag projected to be $42M that is fully guaranteed and significantly restricts the salary cap flexibility to re-sign other FA or add other players via FA.  a potential 2nd tag would be 120% of the previous salary, so the player/agent is now looking at a $50-51M fully guaranteed salary, and again with no flexibility in terms of salary cap.  a 3rd FT is 144% of the previous salary, that is now pushing $72M fully guaranteed salary.  so going the wait and see with franchise tag as the fall back, if the player continues to show progress, the play/agent are looking at those next 2 FT amounts as the baseline for their negotiation, a bit over $61M per year

[PossibleCabbage]

I mean, I'll believe a "team should not have paid QB the going rate" argument when an NFL team actually does this.  Like theoretically it's possible for a QB to be a false economy if they're above a certain line but below another, but we simply haven't seen a team decided to make a player play on the franchise tag until that's no longer the option before Kirk Cousins, and Kirk Cousins might be the classic example of a false economy quarterback.

[Soggust]

7 hours ago, MWil23 said:

It’s like saying that if you’re a Chiefs fan, you’re automatically an expert on everything 

[squire12]

19 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, I'll believe a "team should not have paid QB the going rate" argument when an NFL team actually does this.  Like theoretically it's possible for a QB to be a false economy if they're above a certain line but below another, but we simply haven't seen a team decided to make a player play on the franchise tag until that's no longer the option before Kirk Cousins, and Kirk Cousins might be the classic example of a false economy quarterback.

Washington did do the multiple FT with Cousins.  his guaranteed salaries for those years limited with the team to add or retain for FA and when he left in FA for the 3rd round comp pick, they were left with no QB.  playing hardball and going the FT route is an option, but it is not really a great or better option.  

[Tank4Drake]

3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, I'm way more comfortable paying this deal to Love than I would be paying Lawrence or Tua's deal.  The thing about "small sample size" is that basically you've seen anybody do on film multiple times is something that player is capable of doing again, where small sample size hurts you is "you don't really have good information on how often he's going to be able to do that" but high variance QBs do get paid and sometimes win championships.  But if that's the level Love just normally plays at when he's dialed in, watch out.

Plus some amount of "how comfortable you are giving a guy a ton of money" is dependent on the actual human being, and Love seems like a guy you can bet on and he'll make good.  Like the reason that Josh Allen is a good football player and not a punchline about "overthrowing 16 foot tall receivers" is that he put in the work because of who he is.  We know for sure Love has the tools, so the rest is on him.

Agreed, I’m way more comfortable paying Love a huge deal than Tua or Lawrence. Love’s 2023 season, especially Week 10-18, is better than anything Tua and Lawrence have done in their careers, combined. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

7 hours ago, Soko said:

The two that immediately came to mind, one in favor of your argument and one against, is Russell Wilson and Nick Foles. Obviously Russ wasn’t mediocre, just that those are the first two I can remember that were rattling off a bunch of strong games.

Not sure if they track exactly, although off the top of my head I’m pretty sure Russ’ definitely did.

EDIT: And actually I’m pretty sure Andy Dalton and Derek Carr both had really strong stretches in 2015ish? Not quite where Love was at, with a few more INTs and thus lower passer rating, but also way above their career level of play.

14 hours ago, Jameson_Neat said:

Goff in 2017, 2018 and 2022. Cousins in 2015, 2020 and 2021. 

Foles and Cousins in 2015 are the two among these that I would buy. Using QB rating exclusively is fine to filter guys out, but having watched Goff in 2018 he clearly held the Rams back, and even in his recent years Love looks quicker through reads with a stronger arm to me.

So, amongst 10 years of combined league play, we can find 2 8 game stretches where guys played like Love did. And those 10-16 ish ranked QBs where there are questions on if they are a franchise guy would have had a total of 60 8 game stretches, for a rate of 2/60, or 3%.

 

What do we think is more likely, the 25 year old former first round pick who looks excellent on film and is only matched by the 97th percentile of questionably franchise QB performances is improving, or that he managed to fake his way through it at an outlier level?

I really don't think this sample is as small as people keep saying.

3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

The thing about "small sample size" is that basically you've seen anybody do on film multiple times is something that player is capable of doing again, where small sample size hurts you is "you don't really have good information on how often he's going to be able to do that" but high variance QBs do get paid and sometimes win championships.  But if that's the level Love just normally plays at when he's dialed in, watch out.

Preach this louder for the people using stats to turn their brains off.

[Soko]

7 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Foles and Cousins in 2015 are the two among these that I would buy. Using QB rating exclusively is fine to filter guys out, but having watched Goff in 2018 he clearly held the Rams back, and even in his recent years Love looks quicker through reads with a stronger arm to me.

So, amongst 10 years of combined league play, we can find 2 8 game stretches where guys played like Love did. And those 10-16 ish ranked QBs where there are questions on if they are a franchise guy would have had a total of 60 8 game stretches, for a rate of 2/60, or 3%.

 

What do we think is more likely, the 25 year old former first round pick who looks excellent on film and is only matched by the 97th percentile of questionably franchise QB performances is improving, or that he managed to fake his way through it at an outlier level?

I really don't think this sample is as small as people keep saying.

Why wouldn’t you include Russ?

7 games - 24 TDs, 1 INT, 272 YPG, too lazy to do the completion percentage but 5 of those games were over 70% (one was over 80%), and 6 of them were over a 120 passer rating. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

2 minutes ago, Soko said:

Why wouldn’t you include Russ?

7 games - 24 TDs, 1 INT, 272 YPG, too lazy to do the completion percentage but 5 of those games were over 70% (one was over 80%), and 6 of them were over a 120 passer rating. 

Yeah sorry, I almost edited this in, you can add or subtract guys and get mostly the same story here. Even if you think he's top 10 percentile, or 15 percentile because you have 5 or 10 other performances, the big picture is he didn't play like a borderline guy for long enough that he's probably not a borderline guy.

EDIT: And I'd have Russ beyond borderline, I remember him as being good immediately and a no doubt franchise guy.

Edited July 27 by ramssuperbowl99