OneTwoSixFive Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 You move on from everyone eventually. The choice is when you choose to do it. Most teams hang on to what were good QBs too long, like the Steelers and Roethlisberger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smidgeon Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 43 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: The point I'm trying to make in a weird way is that American Football is not scientific. You cannot predict previous performance as an indicator of future. Science is based on predictive results and the repitition of results. That is just not possible in the NFL, cos that is what makes the NFL so great is the unpredicatable nature of it. From the games themselves, to talent acqusition. We all like to act like we know that 1+1=2 but in NFL world 1+1 = -3 or sometimes even 1+1 = 4. Just cos Rodgers has played bad to average in his recent playoff runs doesn't mean he will every season henceforth. There are just too many factors at play. Any team that wins does so on pivotal moments in games. A single play can change the course of a game. As the blocked punt did for us this year. Furthermore, and why I love the NFL is that it is microcosm for life. Decisions made which lead to good results, decisions which lead to bad results. The factor of luck, momentum, belief. The whole emotional psychology of it all. It is so unpredictable. It's easy to pick apart and look at the all 22 (if Gamepass didn't suck) and say he should of done this or that, but it isn't that clinical or scientific. Rodgers is undeniably a talent and I just don't see how you move on from talent like that. Says the person who in one post prior just outlined the past performance of all active/recently retired QBs in the playoffs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, thrILL! said: Talent that disappears in January. Talent that is on its last legs that’s how. Like most QBs their 'talent disappears' in January, see my previous list. Rodgers is a talent that has just come off two MVP seasons. He ain't like Drew Bress on his last legs in his last couple of seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Smidgeon said: Says the person who in one post prior just outlined the past performance of all active/recently retired QBs in the playoffs. Exactly!!! According to that list we should trade immediately for Jimmy G as he is 5-2 in the post season, more succesfull than Rodgers in recent years. Stafford who was 0-3 and is now 4-3 in the post season. All it takes is one Super Bowl run to change everything. In 6 seasons that Eli Manning went to the playoffs, the only reason he is 8-4 in the playoffs is because of his two Super Bowl winning season. Two seasons in his whole career have defined his post season record. That's why it comes down to talent, as it is hard to predict when you will have that Super Bowl run, as it was with the Packers in 2010. Rodgers is talented. You don't let talent go, especially at QB position. Then you just hope everything aligns and you get the bounce of the ball. Another Super Bowl win totally changes the narrative around Rodgers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thrILL! Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: Like most QBs their 'talent disappears' in January, see my previous list. Rodgers is a talent that has just come off two MVP seasons. He ain't like Drew Bress on his last legs in his last couple of seasons. Rodgers did win the 2021 MVP in a rather underwhelming race (Kupp should've won but I digress). Yet it sure looked like he played closer to his 2018-19 form than he did his very impressive 2020 season. It's pretty remarkable that he won it this year considering he was above average at best during the first half of the season before coming on strong down the stretch to win it. Well... except for when he was outplayed by Jordan Love vs Detroit but hey that was one game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 How many more pages of "should he stay or should he go now!" "If he stays there will be trouble, but if he goes there won't be double!" Everybody is pretty dug in on the side of this topic they are on. For clarification I'm in the, Rodgers is a pompous, arrogant, greedy ******* pig and he should go! He served us well for 17 years and the value to sell is a lot higher than the price to keep him and get nothing down the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, Old Guy said: Everybody is pretty dug in on the side of this topic they are on. I still have no idea. I think I lean to keeping him though. I'm ready to be hurt again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzPackfan Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: How do you not cut one of the Smiths? We're 30 million over the cap. If Rodgers demands 2/100. It's going to be at minimum 60 million in the signing bonus. Let's be generous and say you split the base salary at 10/30. Then immediately restructure the 10 in the first year. That leaves you with a first year cap hit of 1 million in base salary + 13.8 in new bonus money +26.9 in old bonus money. So you're looking at 40.7 as a cap hit. That gets you down to 26 million over the cap. Let's assume you can post 6/1 cut Cobb, that gets you down to 18 million over the cap. Let's say Jaire gets 4/80 with 30 guaranteed and one void year, then you immediately get him down to 1 million, you end up with a year one cap hit of 9ish. That gets you down to 14 million over the cap. Let's be generous and say you can get 3 million for restructuring Turner and Lowry, you're down to 11. An Amos extension maybe gets you another 3 million. You're down to 8. You could probably get down to the 4ish million under that you need for draft picks and RFAs +++ "But AG20, you most poignant of Packer observers", you say, "You didn't do anything about Davante Adams, and we know Rodgers isn't going to sign on without him." Hence the issue. It also doesn't talk about Campbell or any of the other players. I think you are way off with those numbers. There is an easy way to get Rodgers cap number down to around the 30m mark. I also think Jaire's numbers will be slightly less than that and can easily see his cap number being between 6-7m for this year If Rodgers stays then so does Cobb though I can see him having to take a 50% pay cut. As for the pass rushers, depending on what the market value is for them, I could realistically see an extension for both with void years as keeping both gives us the best chance to have maximum impact this year Between those 5 players, I could see us saving between 45-50m depending on how deals are structured if they were all kept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Sandy said: Your numbers and understanding of the cap are woeful on a good day and blatantly biased on your worst. Maybe you should go back to school. Or at least look at EVERY SINGLE MOCK DRAFT made by posters of this forum that did it correctly. Just because you post the most and make the boldest declarations doesn't make you right. You're underestimating the cap savings for a Rodgers restructure by about $10 million. If you have an extension of 2 years and $100m in new money, converting this year's base salary into a bonus with two void years and yes, about $40m in a new bonus, we still save about $12-16m in immediate cap. Not $4m. Let's call it $15m to keep things even. Cutting Cobb and reigning him saves you 5 pre-june 1st. Extending Jaire should save about $7-9m, but let's call it $5m since you're such an insufferable ****. Extending Amos, restructuring Billy and Lowry, conservatively saves another $10m. Probably more like 12m, but I'll play your game. Look, we're already $5m over. Extending both Smiths saves you $20m more. This conservatively gives us $25m to give Davante a record setting deal ($10m in first year cap hit - if you really want I'll explain how if you promise to stop breathing out of your mouth) Campbell ($3m first year hit) and Douglas ($5m) we still have $7m for draft picks! Hooray! This isn't saying I think that we SHOULD extend both Smiths. But we could. (Also before you mention "but next year, oooo!!" We can already convert $34m in savings for next offseason with new restructures for Clark, Bakh and Jones without considering the restructures and extensions we can apply to Gary, Rodgers, Adams, any remaining Smith...you get the idea). You're in the right place. Learn how to use that site before spewing nonsense. Rodgers: What does a hypothetical Rodgers contract look like? 2/100 Let's assume for ****'s and giggles that you're right about the $40million dollar signing bonus. That leaves $60million in base salary assuming we don't throw a roster bonus into 2023. 26.5/33.5 distribution by 25% escalation rule. 26.5 goes down to 1.5 and the signing bonus goes up to $65. Stretched over 5 years, that $13 million per year 2022 cap hit is now: $27 in old bonus money + $1.5 in new base salary money + $13 in new bonus money. = $41.5 million cap hit in 2022. So a savings of 5 million dollars on the cap. Cap hit in 2023 is $48.5. Cap hit in 2024 when he's not on the roster is 39 million. You're nowhere near $15 million. The only way you get anywhere near $15 million in savings is if you only add 5 million in new money to this year. That isn't possible short of doing something like a contract with a $20 million dollar signing bonus spread over 5 years and then an 80million roster bonus in 2023. +++ Cobb: Cobb has a 9.5 million dollar contract. A Post 6/1 cut gets his cap hit down to 1.4 in 2022. With another 1.4 in 2023. You then sign him for another 1.2. So his 2022 cap hit is 2.6. Down from 9.1. You saved 6.5. I gave you credit for 8 in my original post. +++ Jaire: How the hell are you going to get Jaire to save $9 million dollars? He's going to want 4/80 with at least $35 in the signing bonus. He's only costing $13 million now. Even with a void year in year 5, his signing bonus alone is going to cost $5 milllion before you start messing with it. Add on his million, and you've already got a $6 million cap hit meaning at most you can save $7 million. Again assuming no roster bonuses, you have to set his base salary up like 8-10-12.5-15.6 Take 8 down to 1 and you end up with a signing bonus of $42 million spread over 5 years is 8.4 million per year. You can get Jaire down to essentially $9.5 down from $13. That saves $3.5 million. Following year hits would be 18.4-20.9-24 and then 8.4 million for a year that he isn't on the roster or has to be reacclimated into his next extension. +++ Amos: Amos has a $12 million dollar cap hit. He has 4 million in dead bonus money even if you cut him. Let's say you give him 3/27 in line with his current contract. You'll pay $10 in the signing bonus. That leaves him with base salary hits of 4.5/5.5/7. Take the 4.5 down to 1 and you end up with $13.5 in the signing bonus. Even giving him two void years means the signing bonus hits at 2.7 per year. So his year one cap hit is $4 +$1 + $2.7. So you have $7.5 for a year one cap hit. That saves you $4.5 +++ Turner Jesus Christ man, Turner's going to be asking for an extension. We're going to be lucky if he doesn't hold out. Even if you add two void years on to his 2 already and cut that $6 down to $1 in base salary you've added $1 to the signing bonus hit which was already $3.1 so you're up to $4.1. $9.1 down to $4.1 saves $5 million. +++ Lowry Again, the guy is going to want an extension, not a restructure. There's $6 million in movable money, so add on another void year and you've got his number down from $8 to $3. Saves you $5 million. +++ That leaves me with: Rodgers: 5 Cobb: 6 Jaire: 3.5 Amos: 4.5 Turner: 5 Lowry: 5 So you're now $5 under the cap. +++ Zadarius Z has 12.5 million in immovable money. Cutting him saves you $15 million. I don't even want to guess on this contract but let's say 3/40 is the new deal, with 12 in the signing bonus. Gives you base payouts of 7.5/9.5/11 Convert 7.5 down to 1 and add two void years, you're adding 3.7 onto every year. So you're at cap hits of 17/13.2/15 That saves you about $10. +++ Preston Preston already has dead money of $7 million. Let's assume again $3/40 and do basically the exact same math. You're at cap hits of 11.5/13.2/15 You saves you $8. So you're now $23 under the cap. +++ You can then franchise tag Davante and work out his extension. Let's call it 5/100 with 50 guaranteed. Base cap hits of 6/7.5/9.5/12/14.5 Take 6 down to 1. gives you a signing bonus of $55 million Cap hits of 12/18.5/20.5/23/25.5 That gets you back up to $11 under the cap. +++ Take up $4 for draft picks and buffer. Leaves you at $7. +++ Bring back all 8 of the EFRA's and remove 8 rookie minimums. Cuts you down to $5.5 million. Gamble on a ROFR Tender for Lazard brings you down to $3. Sign a Punter. You lose Douglas, Campbell, MVS,Patrick, King, Kelly, Chandon Sullivan, Tonyan, Lancaster, ESB Depth Chart next year: Rodgers/Love Jones/Dillon/Hill/Taylor Adams/Lazard/Cobb/Rodgers/Taylor/Winfree Lewis/Deguara/Dafney/Davis/Mack Bakhtiari/Nijman Jenkins/Van Lanen Myers/Hanson Runyan/Newman Turner/ Gary/Zadarius/Ramsey/Galeai Preston/Garvin/Rivers/Hamilton Clark/Slaton Lowry/Heflin Barnes/ Summers/McDuffie Alexander/Thomas Stokes Jean-Charles/Gafford Amos/Black/Davis Savage/Scott Crosby Punter Wirtel Mortgaging the future as much as feasibly possible, you have a much weaker roster than last year with a one year window. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, Norm said: I still have no idea. I think I lean to keeping him though. I'm ready to be hurt again. Join the dark side Norm! Search your feelings, you know it to be true 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, OzPackfan said: I think you are way off with those numbers. There is an easy way to get Rodgers cap number down to around the 30m mark. I also think Jaire's numbers will be slightly less than that and can easily see his cap number being between 6-7m for this year If Rodgers stays then so does Cobb though I can see him having to take a 50% pay cut. As for the pass rushers, depending on what the market value is for them, I could realistically see an extension for both with void years as keeping both gives us the best chance to have maximum impact this year Between those 5 players, I could see us saving between 45-50m depending on how deals are structured if they were all kept. Short of putting a MASSIVE roster bonus in 2023 (I'm talking 86.5 million dollars) and him not taking a real signing bonus (which will never happen) I don't see how $30 is possible. With his current dead money and a league minimum base salary, that puts you at $28 million. To stay at $30, even with the signing bonus spread out over 5 years, the highest his signing bonus can be is 10 million. So with the 25% escalation rule, your cap hit structure would look like 30/(2 in base pay + 2 in signing bonus + 86.5 million dollar roster bonus = $90.5 cap hit/2/2/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzPackfan Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Just now, AlexGreen#20 said: Short of putting a MASSIVE roster bonus in 2023 (I'm talking 86.5 million dollars) and him not taking a real signing bonus (which will never happen) I don't see how $30 is possible. With his current dead money and a league minimum base salary, that puts you at $28 million. To stay at $30, even with the signing bonus spread out over 5 years, the highest his signing bonus can be is 10 million. So with the 25% escalation rule, your cap hit structure would look like 30/(2 in base pay + 2 in signing bonus + 86.5 million dollar roster bonus = $90.5 cap hit/2/2/2 The issue I'm seeing is that you are replacing the existing contract with the new contract which I sincerely doubt happens. For Rodgers I'm seeing it like this: 2 year extension, 100m in new money +3 void years, leaving him under contract for 3 more years in total 2022 - He goes from 27.5m in salary/bonuses to a 1.5m salary / 45m signing bonus, cap hit equals 29,664,156 (saves 17m) 2023 - He gets a 25m salary guaranteed + 25m roster bonus (which gets converted to signing bonus before being paid), cap hit becomes 46.67m 2024 - He gets a 30m salary and 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit here becomes 45m 2025 - Dead cap charges from void years of 33m As for Jaire, I see 4 years/76m being tacked onto his 5th year option of 13.294m making it 5 years 89.294m he is due. Structure something like this: 2022 - 1.294m salary, 22m signing bonus - cap hit of 5.694m 2023 - 2.5m salary, 10m roster bonus (which gets paid as a signing bonus) - cap hit of 9.4m 2024 - 11.5m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 19.4 2025 - 17.5m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 25.9 2026 - 20m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 27.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 1 minute ago, OzPackfan said: The issue I'm seeing is that you are replacing the existing contract with the new contract which I sincerely doubt happens. For Rodgers I'm seeing it like this: 2 year extension, 100m in new money +3 void years, leaving him under contract for 3 more years in total 2022 - He goes from 27.5m in salary/bonuses to a 1.5m salary / 45m signing bonus, cap hit equals 29,664,156 (saves 17m) 2023 - He gets a 25m salary guaranteed + 25m roster bonus (which gets converted to signing bonus before being paid), cap hit becomes 46.67m 2024 - He gets a 30m salary and 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit here becomes 45m 2025 - Dead cap charges from void years of 33m As for Jaire, I see 4 years/76m being tacked onto his 5th year option of 13.294m making it 5 years 89.294m he is due. Structure something like this: 2022 - 1.294m salary, 22m signing bonus - cap hit of 5.694m 2023 - 2.5m salary, 10m roster bonus (which gets paid as a signing bonus) - cap hit of 9.4m 2024 - 11.5m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 19.4 2025 - 17.5m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 25.9 2026 - 20m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 27.4 I see what you're doing, but I don't think you can tear up that 2023 void year like that. That's previously paid money. If you can leave the 7.5 million as a prorated part of the 2023 signing bonus, bringing it up to 16.5 million of untouchables in 2023, maybe you can do it, but I don't think that's how that works. When you sign over it, it should hit in 2022. That brings you up to 26 before you even look at anything else. Add in the minimum salary and you're up to 28. Factor in the Signing bonus and you're at 37. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, OzPackfan said: As for Jaire, I see 4 years/76m being tacked onto his 5th year option of 13.294m making it 5 years 89.294m he is due. Structure something like this: 2022 - 1.294m salary, 22m signing bonus - cap hit of 5.694m 2023 - 2.5m salary, 10m roster bonus (which gets paid as a signing bonus) - cap hit of 9.4m 2024 - 11.5m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 19.4 2025 - 17.5m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 25.9 2026 - 20m salary, 1.5m in workout/gameday roster bonuses, cap hit of 27.4 Why is Jaire taking that low ball offer? He is going to want something closer to Ramset/ Lattimore/ Humphrey If you are trying to keep the 2022 cap hit low and be on the lower end of signing bonus, you need to increase the 2023 base. That forces GB to convert that to signing bonus to help the cap in 2023. An issue in this is each player can want their piece of the salary cap pie that is set to jump. None of Jaire, Z, Preston, Amos, Turner, Lowry needs to help out GB on the 2022 cap without getting something in their favor in 2023. Each of their agents should be looking for big roster bonus / base salary that are guaranteed at the time of signing to secure that money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzPackfan Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: I see what you're doing, but I don't think you can tear up that 2023 void year like that. That's previously paid money. If you can leave the 7.5 million as a prorated part of the 2023 signing bonus, bringing it up to 16.5 million of untouchables in 2023, maybe you can do it, but I don't think that's how that works. When you sign over it, it should hit in 2022. That brings you up to 26 before you even look at anything else. Add in the minimum salary and you're up to 28. Factor in the Signing bonus and you're at 37. I'm going by how it works on Spotrac and OTC. Any extension keeps what is currently on those years (22 and 23) in place and adds to it with the new deal. to my understanding, a new deal doesn't void the old deal and fast track dead money to this year. That only happens when a play is cut or traded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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