Mazrimiv Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 55 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Oh I see what the question is now. Yes I think a 2 game improvement is very objective given the changes this off-season. Third place vs first place schedule. Our top 2 OL playing. A QB joining the offense in the off-season. Significantly improved pass catching rooms. A team defense improvement over the 2nd half of the season. Top 5-10 draft capital in the league added to roster. Shedding of below average, aging veterans. There are a lot of objective reasons to believe a 2 game improvement is reasonable. On top of that, I have subjective reasons, too. The biggest is that I think getting out from under Aaron Rodgers is going to do wonders for the mentality of this team. There's just going to be a totally different energy this year with the youth movement and I think that will benefit the team. So 10 wins is a very objective view, but when I topped out at 9 for my 2023 expectations, I was emotionally hedging? I don't get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said: So 10 wins is a very objective view, but when I topped out at 9 for my 2023 expectations, I was emotionally hedging? I don't get it. I do not recall ever saying that projecting 9 wins was emotionally hedging. I said that counting 2023 as "rebuilding" year as defined by a year in which we have no realistic shot of competing is hedging bets. So yes, if you think this team doesn't have a realistic shot at competing for a SB I think you're not being objective and emotionally hedging. Is the tail of your mental distribution curve that's centered at 9 wins sufficiently fat such that a SB trip wouldn't shock you? If so, I have no qualms. That's probably how it looks for the middle 20ish teams. The issue I have is people who say things like "this is a rebuilding year. We don't have a shot. We should play for 2024" etc. That's emotional hedging not based on objectivity. GB's curve isn't centered at the most wins, I understand that. The Vegas odds more or less reflect that as well. But their tail is fat enough where it shouldn't surprise anyone to see us put up a 12 win season, for example. This roster is talented. The upside is objectively higher than the downside as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, incognito_man said: I do not recall ever saying that projecting 9 wins was emotionally hedging. I said that counting 2023 as "rebuilding" year as defined by a year in which we have no realistic shot of competing is hedging bets. So yes, if you think this team doesn't have a realistic shot at competing for a SB I think you're not being objective and emotionally hedging. Is the tail of your mental distribution curve that's centered at 9 wins sufficiently fat such that a SB trip wouldn't shock you? If so, I have no qualms. That's probably how it looks for the middle 20ish teams. The issue I have is people who say things like "this is a rebuilding year. We don't have a shot. We should play for 2024" etc. That's emotional hedging not based on objectivity. GB's curve isn't centered at the most wins, I understand that. The Vegas odds more or less reflect that as well. But their tail is fat enough where it shouldn't surprise anyone to see us put up a 12 win season, for example. This roster is talented. The upside is objectively higher than the downside as well. Huh... I think you are right. I had it wrong in my head which post you quoted. I won't pretend I expect this 2023 team to make a SB run, but that is different than saying they have no chance. Of course they do. As for a 12 win season, that would surprise me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 I think I have zero confidence in any predictions for what the Packers will be this season. I have hopes, that's what makes being a fan fun. But certainty? Almost none. Who knows? National Injury League: Who knows? By October Bakhti, Jenkins, Jones, Jaire, and Jordan might all be injured, and we'll be losing every game. Who knows? Jordan: Who knows? He looked good throwing 9 passes in Philly. But who knows? He might be excellent, a top-10 type; he might be lousy, a bottom-10 type; or he might be more in the not-bad-not-great middle. Good arm, but not Favre/Rodgers-esque? Accuracy how good and how consistent? Mental processing and recognition speed, who knows? OL: Who knows? It could be pretty good, it could be pretty bad again. Who knows who starts where, and whether younger guys who were variably mediocre/so-so will improve enough to be good starters now? Who knows? Secondary: Who knows? It could be pretty bad. It could be very good. Who knows? Pass Rush: Who knows? Will LVN be a force? Will Wyatt be a force? Will Gary return and be a force? Or will rookie LVN make as little impact as Wyatt did? Will Wyatt emerge as an asset pressure guy, or will he kinda provide as little pressure this year as he did last year? Will Gary come back and be a force, or coming back mid-year will be as limited as a defensive edge as Jenkins was coming back as an OT last mid-season? Who knows? Run defense: MLF's scheme usually has it awful, and Reed may have been one of the better run-contain guys. It could be awful again. They haven't added any "anchor" guys, Wyatt got pushed around in run, and the coaches didn't think he was as good as Lowry. Will run d be horrific awful? Or might it be only slightly below average, and Quay and LVN and Wyatt will all help some? Or will the coaches make some adjustments that help? Who knows? WR: Who knows? Could be a world of improvement. Watson, Doubs, Toure, Reed, young legs who like to run, maybe it will be a blast? Of maybe Doubs will be no better than last year and kinda JAG, Toure will be nothing, and Reed as a rookie won't play much or play well. Who knows? TE: Who knows? Maybe Toddler and Deguara will play surprisingly well and be not too bad, and Kraft and Musgrave will add value from the start? Or maybe TE play will be dreadful. Who knows? MLF play-calling: Maybe post-Rodgers we'll see creative and diversified offense that's tough on defenses? Or maybe MLF just is a boring predictable play-caller, and defenses will love anticipating and jumping everything we try because they know exactly what to do on anything we try? Who knows? Who knows? Nobody knows! I don't, Las Vegas doesn't, coaches don't, I don't think any of you really know either. I'm thinking it could be really fun to see how it goes. And I'm optimistic that a lot of it will go pretty well and that it will be fun to have lots of young talent. Arrows up!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Great. Just cannot get away from this clown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Arthur Penske said: Great. Just cannot get away from this clown I find him easy to avoid. I have to go out of my way to encounter him. I've watched maybe 2-3 of his shows ever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, incognito_man said: I find him easy to avoid. I have to go out of my way to encounter him. I've watched maybe 2-3 of his shows ever. I've watched exactly one. I'll give you one guess as to which one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 36 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: Great. Just cannot get away from this clown No quicker way to ruin something than join the ESPN/Disney conglomerate. Pat will be rich, but his show will die out relatively quick on that platform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Sandy said: We'll be sparring with the Lions for the division title. Why are people sleeping on the vikings? the team that made the playoffs and actually scored 24 points against the Giants. God awful defense, but that's the most accomplished and prepared team in the North. Better QB, better coach, better weapons, ??? O line. Defense comes and goes, but that team has an identity and is a veteran squad with big upside on Offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartacus Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Just now, skibrett15 said: God awful defense, You just answered your own question. They were historically one of the luckiest teams ever last year. There DVOA was mediocre, there point differential was mediocre (Green Bay had a better point differential), they won almost a record setting number of one score games, they also had to come back in the 4th quarter in over half there games. Everything you look at regarding the Vikings screams regression. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Spartacus said: You just answered your own question. They were historically one of the luckiest teams ever last year. There DVOA was mediocre, there point differential was mediocre (Green Bay had a better point differential), they won almost a record setting number of one score games, they also had to come back in the 4th quarter in over half there games. Everything you look at regarding the Vikings screams regression. That's fair. They put up a lot of points though, and not against bad teams either. I like them to be more of a 20th ranked D instead of 30th and that should be enough to be a 10-7 team at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: Why are people sleeping on the vikings? the team that made the playoffs and actually scored 24 points against the Giants. God awful defense, but that's the most accomplished and prepared team in the North. Better QB, better coach, better weapons, ??? O line. Defense comes and goes, but that team has an identity and is a veteran squad with big upside on Offense. Because they were literally the luckiest team in NFL history, no team has ever been due for a larger win regression than the Vikings. Nine comeback wins in the 2nd half and 11-0 in one score games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Packerraymond said: Because they were literally the luckiest team in NFL history, no team has ever been due for a larger win regression than the Vikings. Nine comeback wins in the 2nd half and 11-0 in one score games. They could easily regress to 10-7 and run away with the north. Regression doesn't mean "bad team" when you went 13-4. It means, phony SB contender, good playoff team though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: They could easily regress to 10-7 and run away with the north. Regression doesn't mean "bad team" when you went 13-4. It means, phony SB contender, good playoff team though. Vikings get to play the Bengals, 49ers and Eagles vs Steelers, Rams and Giants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Vikings get to play the Bengals, 49ers and Eagles vs Steelers, Rams and Giants. They get to play the lions, packers and Bears - that's all that matters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.