Most safe bet sure thing player in this draft?

[BleedTheClock]

13 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

Yeah, Warmack was never "can't miss", lots of us at the time were reminding people of that. He was a very good prospect, but many people rightfully had Larry Warford ranked higher. David DeCastro was a "can't miss" prospect just like Quenton Nelson is a "can't miss" prospect now. 

I remember Warmacks deficiencies in movement, but thought he would be a downright elite run blocker in a power blocking scheme. He struggled to run block as well, which shocked me. 

 

I loved Joshua Garnett, but I saw the bust factor there as he was a habitual lunger in the run and pass game.

 

DeCastro was my #1 ranked player in 2012. Loved that guy. Was furious when the Browns passed on him for Weeden and then our rivals scooped him up 2 picks later. FURIOUS.

 

Quenton Nelsons best attribute is that he plays with balance always. He isn’t just some eye candy brute out there. His technique is flawless and his feet are always in sync with the rest of his body. He’d be in the Aaron Curry category if he busted. 

[BleedTheClock]

3 hours ago, Counselor said:

Remember this is the individual who said Kamara was the best thing since sliced bread... also said Dobbs was the top QB though which is yet to be seen.

Yeah I remember taking a poop on this dude for his Alvin Kamara take and it appears he should be taking a poop on me for my lack of faith. I thought Kamara was drafted exactly where he should have been drafted. Turns out he should have gone in the top 15 based on this seasons performance.

His Josh Dobbs take still stinks tho?.

[BleedTheClock]

25 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

You're either way overstating how good Connor Williams is or understating how good Lane Johnson is. Lane Johnson is an elite player, one of the best OL in the game. Connor Williams still doesn't know how to take a pass set properly yet. The two really shouldn't be compared.

Both Williams and Lane Johnson were superb athletes with raw traits. I wouldn’t classify either as safe, but I am guessing both end up with similar career success. Williams needs some technique work, but so did Lane Johnson coming out of Oklahoma. His pass set wasn’t pretty either.

[VanS]

20 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Man you love Antonio Callaway. I don't know how you could call someone "safe" that can't even stay on the field due to off-field incidents in college. Callaway is about as unsafe as it gets. I wouldn't even feel safe standing next to the guy, let alone coining him a safe draft pick. Callaway is a piece of crap. He might be a stud athlete and a great receiver prospect (still debatable), but he certainly isn't safe. You have to have at least solid character to get that label from me. I think Callaway would be a mid-late 1st round prospect if he were a choir boy. He's not this top 5 monster that are some are painting him out to be, in my opinion.

Maybe you aren't factoring in the off-field stuff as "safe" and are assuming this is only looking at on-field stuff, but even then...I wouldn't throw the safe label on him. He had some pretty bad drops in college, lacks #1 WR size and strength, and didn't produce like a future NFL #1 WR(can be forgiven since Florida's QB's were hilariously bad). He's a good prospect, but safe is a strange word to describe him.

 

Note: This is an opinion thread, so nobody's answer is wrong obviously. Just debating some of your answers is all. Should be fun to see if any of these "safe" guys end up being busts. It's "safe" to assume at least 1-2 will be out of the league in 2-3 years.

I'm obviously keeping this strictly on field.  And I disagree with you on Antonio Callaway being a bad person.  I actually think he's a good kid.  He just made some bad choices that led to mistakes.  Hopefully he matures and doesn't make those mistakes again because on the field I think he's a surefire can't miss prospect.

Antonio Callaway is probably the best college WR I've seen since AJ Green and Julio Jones.  I was also high on Corey Davis last year, but that was mostly based on watching his tape after the fact.  I watched a lot of Antonio Callaway's games on TV live and every time I saw him play he was making huge plays without much in the way of help from his QB.  He was also cooking some good DBs.  Two years ago he made Minkah Fitzpatrick (who many think is a top 10 pick) look silly in the SEC Championship Game on a couple of plays.  His instincts for the position are elite even if he doesn't have the best measurables.

I've felt this way about Antonio Callaway since his freshmen year.  He's been that impressive in my eyes.  

[jrry32]

11 minutes ago, VanS said:

I'm obviously keeping this strictly on field.  And I disagree with you on Antonio Callaway being a bad person.  I actually think he's a good kid.  He just made some bad choices that led to mistakes. 

And how well do you know him?

[goldfishwars]

Here’s a thread about Chance Warmack I found on the old board whilst he was a draft prospect.

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=514232

[goldfishwars]

Another thread about Warmack

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=510063

 

FWIW this is older and people were generally higher on him than DeCastro from previous draft.

[VanS]

15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Yeah I remember taking a poop on this dude for his Alvin Kamara take and it appears he should be taking a poop on me for my lack of faith. I thought Kamara was drafted exactly where he should have been drafted. Turns out he should have gone in the top 15 based on this seasons performance.

My Alvin Kamara take came because I watched every snap he took in college.  When you watch someone play that much, you get a good idea of what sort of traits they have and how those traits will translate to the NFL.  All the things people are seeing now in the NFL were there at Tennessee.  The balance, the ability to break tackles, and the explosiveness through the hole.  Alvin did that in college as well.  When people were questioning his ability to run inside, I cited these attributes.  I even cited games where he showed this ability.  But alas we live in the world of stats and hype so unless you put up crazy stats in college or are getting crazy hype, people refuse to believe someone could be this good but yet put up pedestrian stats in college.

One of the biggest things people fail to realize is that some players keep improving while others plateau.  The ones who become the best in the NFL are those that keep improving.  Alvin Kamara is actually better right now in the NFL than he was in college.  And this is coming from me who said I saw Marshall Faulk type potential in him at Tennessee.  I was so high on him coming out of college because I saw him improve big time from his sophomore year at Tennessee to his junior year at Tennessee.  He changed his body composition between those years becoming more streamlined.  He was more blocky as a sophomore.  As a junior he looked like a more fit athlete.  He also became stronger and faster that year.  That improvement let me know this was a kid who was gonna keep getting better and not just plateau once he got to the NFL.  And he's continued that in the NFL.  I've noticed his body is a lot stronger this year in the NFL than it was in college last year.  He looks heavier but in a good way.  All his added weight looks like good muscle. 
 

[VanS]

15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

His Josh Dobbs take still stinks tho?.

The funny thing is I was higher on Dobbs than Alvin.  So the fact Alvin has done so well only emboldens me more on Dobbs.  And for the record, I'm high on Dobbs for the same reasons I was high on Alvin.  I saw every game he played in college but I also saw that he had the traits of a player who would keep improving in the NFL rather than plateauing.

With QBs, performance in games isn't the only thing that matters.  Mental makeup is also critical.  And that is probably the biggest reason I am so high on Dobbs.  In addition to watching almost every college game he played, I've also watched almost every interview he's given.  From seeing and reading everything about him, I'm confident he's made of the right stuff to be a star in the NFL.  Everyone knows he's a smart kid.  What most don't know is that he's an insane competitor.  I'm not talking the Baker Mayfield type that tries to show up his opponent.  I'm talking more about Tom Brady competitiveness where you have that inner fire to want to be the best and won't stop at anything until you reach that goal.  Dobbs has that special characteristic about him.  He also gets noticeable bothered if you question his ability.  I like that because great QBs have a level of arrogance where they are confident in their abilities but not to the point where they are telling everyone how good they are.  He has that right balance between arrogance and humility.

And most important of all, he's no longer has to split his time with academics anymore.  In college he didn't have the chance to channel his competitiveness entirely to football.  He had to split it with his insane academic workload.  That won't be the case anymore.  So I expect him to improve by leaps and bounds this off-season.  Steelers coaches have already said he has been like a sponge wanting to get coached up.  I just trust Dobbs intangibles to get the most out of his abilities like Tom Brady was able to get the most out of his abilities because of his elite intangibles. 

[VanS]

19 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

And how well do you know him?

I don't know him personally.  I just think I'm a good judge of character.  There are cues people give off in terms of facial characteristics and body language that let me know whether they are good or bad.  I never got a vibe from Antonio Callaway that he's a bad person.  On the contrary I've actually gotten a vibe from him that he's actually a good kid who simply made some poor choices.  He's got a pleasant looking face and from interviews he's very soft spoken.  He in no way comes off as a bad character. 

He seems to me like a kid who is being influenced by some negative characters most likely from his background.  I think a change of scenery would do eliminate most of the problems he's had so far. 

 

[jrry32]

6 hours ago, VanS said:

I don't know him personally.  I just think I'm a good judge of character.  There are cues people give off in terms of facial characteristics and body language that let me know whether they are good or bad.  I never got a vibe from Antonio Callaway that he's a bad person.  On the contrary I've actually gotten a vibe from him that he's actually a good kid who simply made some poor choices.  He's got a pleasant looking face and from interviews he's very soft spoken.  He in no way comes off as a bad character. 

He seems to me like a kid who is being influenced by some negative characters most likely from his background.  I think a change of scenery would do eliminate most of the problems he's had so far. 

 

That sounds to me like you want him to be a good kid because you like him as a prospect. To be frank, I don't think the world is as simple as the binary good or bad option for the vast majority of people. Many of those who end up in prison do so because of bad choices. Callaway has been given many chances and has repeatedly made the wrong decisions. I don't doubt his talent, but I wouldn't draft him before Round 3 based on what I know. I don't expect the Rams to even consider him.

[CaliforniaKid7]

Harrison Phillips anyone? He'll never be a big pass rushing threat from the middle with his lack of lateral agility but with his size, motor, technique, and hand usage I can't see him failing in the NFL. If he stays healthy I see a long NFL career for the guy. 

[RuskieTitan]

Whenever I see "most safe bet sure thing", I immediately think of these two guys:

Robert Gallery

AND

Aaron Curry

And as a result I don't ever consider anything to truly be 'safe'.

[RuskieTitan]

On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 4:48 AM, BleedTheClock said:

Freaking Chance Warmack! He got me good.

Me too. Was so thrilled when we drafted me...

[THE DUKE]

Many will likely disagree with me, but the one guy I really think is going to be a solid starter at worst is Calvin Ridley.  Hurts being a terrible thrower along with Bama being a power run team has stifled his stats, but he's the truth imo.  I'd take him over any other WR in this draft.  Plenty of upside with Ridley too.