2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[Packerraymond]

6 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

The Jaguars have the best rated cornerback in the NFL since 2015 when it comes to QB passer rating (Bouye) and Jalen Ramsey.  Dion Lewis had 7 receptions and James White had 3. 

They also have Campbell and Fowler Jr. and the one I can't spell and a better pass rush than most teams dream about. 

Telvin Smith was a fifth round draft pick.

Myles Jack was a second round pick. 

Devaluing the linebacker position worked out well for the Jaguars. 

Pass rushers are twice as important if you want to win Super Bowls.  You say "just look at the Jacksonville D with Jack and T. Smith against the Pats for example."

I say, "Just look at the Eagles D with Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham against the Pats for example."

Why?  Because one was the 13th overall pick and a pass rusher who forced Brady's fumble.  The other was the 14th overall pick and a pass rusher who recovered Brady's fumble.

The Eagles won.  The Jaguars lost. 

The Eagles, who had Kendricks (second round) and Bradham (4th round) at linebacker held the Patriots running backs to three total catches.

3 total catches against running backs, 10 total catches against running backs.  Beat the Patriots, lose to the Patriots.

Guarding running backs is important in today's NFL.  Having linebackers to do it is not important. 

Luke Kuechly was a first round pick.  He had a better QB.  Von Miller was a first round pick.  Which one won?  The pass rusher.  Pass rushers win playoff games.  This has been true since the beginning of the NFL.  If there's a pass rusher anywhere near worth the 14th overall pick, you take him and you don't look back.  If there's not, you look at defensive backs. 

 

It doesn't matter what position is important, it matters what's on the board.

If Chubb and Davenport go before 14, you're going to have a hard time convincing me that Harold Landry is a better prospect than Smith or James. Do we take Landry to fill a hole? I wouldn't.

You take the best defensive player on the board, regardless of position. I'm not going to reach for a pass rusher and take a guy we could've got in the mid 20s where we normally pick and miss out on the value of having a top 15 pick for the first time in awhile.

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

If Chubb and Davenport go before 14, you're going to have a hard time convincing me that Harold Landry is a better prospect than Smith or James. Do we take Landry to fill a hole? I wouldn't.

I've never argued against drafting James or any DB.  Almost any way you look at how the draft could go, there is going to be a pass rusher or corner available at 14.  It's not even that I'm against ILB that high.  It's not as simple as that.  The three most important factors:

1. We already have a good ILB.
2. Smith is undersized.
3. Safety, corner, pass rusher are all more important. 

If you're talking Kuechley or even Mosely, sure, absolutely, draft the ILB.  You're not talking about those players.  Not even as comparisons.  With Smith, you're talking about Reddick.  Hell, Smith is SMALLER than Reddick, and Reddick was undersized. 

[Redt]

15 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

The Jaguars have the best rated cornerback in the NFL since 2015 when it comes to QB passer rating (Bouye) and Jalen Ramsey.  Dion Lewis had 7 receptions and James White had 3. 

They also have Campbell and Fowler Jr. and the one I can't spell and a better pass rush than most teams dream about. 

Telvin Smith was a fifth round draft pick.

Myles Jack was a second round pick. 

Devaluing the linebacker position worked out well for the Jaguars. 

Pass rushers are twice as important if you want to win Super Bowls.  You say "just look at the Jacksonville D with Jack and T. Smith against the Pats for example."

I say, "Just look at the Eagles D with Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham against the Pats for example."

Why?  Because one was the 13th overall pick and a pass rusher who forced Brady's fumble.  The other was the 14th overall pick and a pass rusher who recovered Brady's fumble.

The Eagles won.  The Jaguars lost. 

The Eagles, who had Kendricks (second round) and Bradham (4th round) at linebacker held the Patriots running backs to three total catches.

3 total catches against running backs, 10 total catches against running backs.  Beat the Patriots, lose to the Patriots.

Guarding running backs is important in today's NFL.  Having linebackers to do it is not important. 

Luke Kuechly was a first round pick.  He had a better QB.  Von Miller was a first round pick.  Which one won?  The pass rusher.  Pass rushers win playoff games.  This has been true since the beginning of the NFL.  If there's a pass rusher anywhere near worth the 14th overall pick, you take him and you don't look back.  If there's not, you look at defensive backs. 

 

If V. Miller were available at #14 you are correct, unfortunately there are no V. Miller's available this year at # 14 so you look for the guy who can provide the most impact, this is my point. I get it , you apparently have the time and stamina to dispute any and all options/opinions that don't agree with yours and that is your right. Miles Jack was a top 5 pick and medical scared teams away, my point is with Smith and Jack is that they can really run and chase and that is becoming increasingly important in todays NFL. You like to list players that support your argument in a disingenuous way, if I had the time I could list all of the high prospect pass rushers who have failed and made no impact and I'm sure you are aware of this occurrence yourself, so chill, you have made your opinions widely known on many topics and you don't believe R. Smith is a worthy #14, I disagree.

[Packerraymond]

6 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I've never argued against drafting James or any DB.  Almost any way you look at how the draft could go, there is going to be a pass rusher or corner available at 14.  It's not even that I'm against ILB that high.  It's not as simple as that.  The three most important factors:

1. We already have a good ILB.
2. Smith is undersized.
3. Safety, corner, pass rusher are all more important. 

If you're talking Kuechley or even Mosely, sure, absolutely, draft the ILB.  You're not talking about those players.  Not even as comparisons.  With Smith, you're talking about Reddick.  Hell, Smith is SMALLER than Reddick, and Reddick was undersized. 

He'll be 6'1 230, Mosely is around the same size, so is Deion Jones, Bobby Wagner, Danny Trevathan, Eric Kendricks, Kwon Alexander, Lavante David, Telvin Smith, Thomas Davis, Wesley Woodyard and many more I'm sure. He's not undersized in 2018.

[MacReady]

Just now, Redt said:

If V. Miller were available at #14 you are correct, unfortunately there are no V. Miller's available this year at # 14 so you look for the guy who can provide the most impact, this is my point.

Nor are there any Kuechly's.  Smith is not Kuechly. 

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Miles Jack was a top 5 pick and medical scared teams away,

I don't think this is true.  I think we saw a player at a more important position and took him.  We were right.  Kenny Clark is approaching elite territory and he's barely old enough to drink. 

Quote

my point is with Smith and Jack is that they can really run and chase and that is becoming increasingly important in todays NFL.

I appreciate this point, and it's the most valid point I've seen for arguing for Smith, so thanks for the point.  I still don't agree based on what we saw in the Super Bowl.  However the Eagles did it, they covered the Patriot running backs better than the Jaguars did, and with less talent.  I think safeties are far more important in that area, and we have the guys to do it.  Already.  Just look at Clinton-Dix's interception against the Ravens.  For anyone arguing that Clinton-Dix doesn't have the ability, they need to watch that play.  The highlight of his bad season right there.  So if you say we need to be capable of covering backs, I agree completely.  The disagreement here comes from how the two of us see the best way to do that. 

Quote

You like to list players that support your argument in a disingenuous way, if I had the time I could list all of the high prospect pass rushers who have failed and made no impact and I'm sure you are aware of this occurrence yourself, so chill, you have made your opinions widely known on many topics and you don't believe R. Smith is a worthy #14, I disagree.

This again.  I'm not unchill.  Just because the tone of my argument is offputting doesn't mean I'm hot-headed or angry or yelling or belittling or condescending.  Nothing was disingenuous about my argument.  I pointed out flaws in your argument.  If you can't handle that, don't argue.  I'm not calling you names, I'm not speaking poorly of you, I'm debating an issue that was brought up, which is literally the entire point of this site.  You could point out pass rushers who have failed, sure.  I could point out the extreme lack of teams drafting linebackers as high as 14th overall since 2007 (the year the league changed to a passing league after Manning whined his way into rule changes). 

EDIT: The rule change came in 2004, not 2007 as I thought.  Working on correction. 

Barr.  Willis.  Reddick.  Curry.  Kuechly.  McClain.  Mayo.  Rivers.

Add Hawk, Vilma and Sims.  Remove Curry.  He wasn't an ILB.  He was supposed to be capable of a lot more than just ILB.  So you've got 10 inside linebackers drafted top 14 since 2004.  Five percent.  Five percent of players drafted in the top 14 since 2004 were inside linebackers.  Only tight ends, guards and centers had a lower percentage over that time. 

That's it.  Two of them were worth it.  Smith is not on either of their level as a prospect.  It's almost like NFL teams agree... ILB is not a premium position. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

He'll be 6'1 230, Mosely is around the same size, so is Deion Jones, Bobby Wagner, Danny Trevathan, Eric Kendricks, Kwon Alexander, Lavante David, Telvin Smith, Thomas Davis, Wesley Woodyard and many more I'm sure. He's not undersized in 2018.

Was Mosely or was he not a CONSIDERABLY better prospect than Smith?  Was he or was he not selected 17th overall? 

Looks like Thomas Davis was the only other one taken in round one.  If only there was a better player at a more important position that was drafted in that year who the Panthers and Chiefs passed on in favor of inside linebackers to fit my argument. 

What year was Aaron Rodgers drafted?

[Packerraymond]

3 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Was Mosely or was he not a CONSIDERABLY better prospect than Smith?  Was he or was he not selected 17th overall? 

Looks like Thomas Davis was the only other one taken in round one...

Eh Roquan's year this year was significantly better than any Mosely had at Bama. I would say they are pretty equal depending on Smith showing he's equal athletically.

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Eh Roquan's year this year was significantly better than any Mosely had at Bama. I would say they are pretty equal depending on Smith showing he's equal athletically.

Was Davis even drafted as a linebacker, or was he drafted as a safety?  I'm asking because he's not showing up on the season finder for linebackers drafted in round one.  I seem to recall him being a safety in college, wasn't he?  Can't let that one count if so. 

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Was Davis even drafted as a linebacker, or was he drafted as a safety?  I'm asking because he's not showing up on the season finder for linebackers drafted in round one.  I seem to recall him being a safety in college, wasn't he?  Can't let that one count if so. 

College safety drafted to play LB.

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

College safety drafted to play LB.

College safety drafted to play LB is not what we're talking about here.  Can't give it to you.  Sorry.  No points for you. 

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said:

College safety drafted to play LB is not what we're talking about here.  Can't give it to you.  Sorry.  No points for you. 

I don't care about your points lol.

You like to look at history, I couldn't care less. Smith is a top 15 prospect this year. The best pass rushers might be gone by 15. The best CB is 5'9 1/2. When it comes to a position we truly want to fall, we might not get lucky this year. I like Derwin James better, but the Bengals and Redskins who pick before us are legit options for him if the board doesn't fall their way too. Landry could be the guy with a nice Combine, but without, he's a 20-30 guy. I like Edmunds better too, but I think the 49ers grab him. The scenario isn't crazy where we either reach or take Roquan or another one of your favorites, Calvin Ridley.

We just have to hope as many QBs and OTs go ahead of us as possible.

I'd much prefer Chubb, Davenport, James or Edmunds, but I like Smith too.

[MacReady]

Chubb/Davenport/James/Edmunds... What horror show scenario do you see where one of those four won't be available when we pick? 

Ridley is going before us (thank God).
At least two offensive linemen are going before us.
A team will reach on a receiver (it happens every year). 
At least one running back will go before us (probably two now that it's a trend).
A cornerback.
Probably a safety (Fitzpatrick).
And at least three quarterbacks.

That's ten players that won't be Chubb/Davenport/James/Edmunds, those are four players, we pick 14th. 

Drafting a LB instead of a pass rusher if they're anywhere near as talented makes about as much sense as wiping your butt before you poop. 

[tredpack]

It’s totally going to be Nelson. I cannot wait to watch the **** storm. 

Nelson at 14 then a trade up for Sutton late round 1. I will press the refresh button over and over on FF for days..

[MacReady]

Just now, tredpack said:

It’s totally going to be Nelson. I cannot wait to watch the **** storm. 

Nelson at 14 then a trade up for Sutton late round 1. I will press the refresh button over and over on FF for days..

Hate to disappoint you, but when I'm mad... When I'm really mad... I shut up completely.  After the Packers lost The Great Sorrow, I disappeared from this site for 4 months and came back with a new username.  If we draft Nelson at 14, I might not come back at all. 

[tredpack]

4 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Hate to disappoint you, but when I'm mad... When I'm really mad... I shut up completely.  After the Packers lost The Great Sorrow, I disappeared from this site for 4 months and came back with a new username.  If we draft Nelson at 14, I might not come back at all. 

Bubble burst....thanks a lot. 

I'll buy you a Nelson jersey if it happens.