2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[MacReady]

Just now, moretti19 said:

I have yet to hear a negative of having two very good inside linebackers that can both cover, tackle, and be leaders.

Then you haven't been paying attention.

You want the best 11 players on the field at the same time.  Drafting another inside linebacker prevents that from happening.  Drafting Smith will take one of Smith/Martinez off the field in passing situations.  It also neglects far more important positions for a luxury position. 

[Arthur Penske]

6 minutes ago, moretti19 said:

Your wanting to draft for need and expecting the prospect will come in an immediately fill the role. I have yet to hear a negative of having two very good inside linebackers that can both cover, tackle, and be leaders.

Well to be fair, drafting for need is the TT/Wolf way...

[MacReady]

Just now, ArthurPensky said:

Because you’re one injury away from having a hole there with no difference maker and sometimes need two of them on the field.  Yes,  Martinez is a difference maker. 

You're one injury away from having a hole at literally every single position in the sport.  You could use the same argument for pass rusher, which is by far the more premium position, and by far the bigger weakness on our team.  This "one injury away" argument has to die.

We're one injury away from being worse at literally every single position, so that is unequivocally NOT a legitimate reason to draft X, Y, Z or A through W positions. 

[moretti19]

Just now, HorizontoZenith said:

Then you haven't been paying attention.

You want the best 11 players on the field at the same time.  Drafting another inside linebacker prevents that from happening.  Drafting Smith will take one of Smith/Martinez off the field in passing situations.  It also neglects far more important positions for a luxury position. 

The panthers don't take Thomas Davis and Kuelchly off the field on passing downs? If he grades out well above the premium position players, then yes that is when you take him.

[Arthur Penske]

9 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

You're one injury away from having a hole at literally every single position in the sport.  You could use the same argument for pass rusher, which is by far the more premium position, and by far the bigger weakness on our team.  This "one injury away" argument has to die.

We're one injury away from being worse at literally every single position, so that is unequivocally NOT a legitimate reason to draft X, Y, Z or A through W positions. 

It’s an argument TT frequently made and GMs realize so I don’t think it’s going anywhere.

everyone obviously realizes pass rusher is more valuable. Advocating for ILB depth/upgrades doesn’t mean one doesn’t put a premium on pass rushers lol

[MacReady]

Just now, moretti19 said:

The panthers don't take Thomas Davis and Kuelchly off the field on passing downs? If he grades out well above the premium position players, then yes that is when you take him.

Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly play different positions.  Martinez and Smith wouldn't.  Not here anyway. 

And that's not going to happen.  Smith is not going to be the highest graded defensive player when we pick.  It's not possible, given the all but guaranteed number of quarterbacks, running backs, offensive linemen, receivers and defensive linemen that will go in the first 13 picks, for Smith to be rated that much higher than a much more important position.

Inside linebacker is bottom of the barrel as far as importance to a defense.  There will be a more premium position at an equal or better grade than Smith, so it's just a nonsense debate to ask why we don't draft Smith.

Additionally, that quick type of inside linebacker has been WAY too overvalued in the NFL the past few seasons.  Reddick and Thompson and a bunch of others, including Smith, are luxury picks.  When was the last time a purely inside linebacker was worth this high of a pick?  C.J. Moseley wasn't even a top 14 pick, and he's just as capable in the passing game as Smith while being considerably more capable in the run game.  Smith is 225 pounds.  Safeties are in that range these days.  If you think Smith is gonna be on the field in much more than passing situations his first year, you don't fully understand the difference between college and NFL games. 

I really hoped Blake's strong 2017 would end this argument.  Last year we had to sit through Reuben Foster and Hasaan Reddick arguments.  The year before that it was Myles Jack.  This year it's Smith. 

[MacReady]

Just now, ArthurPensky said:

It’s an argument TT frequently made and GMs realize so I don’t think it’s going anywhere.

everyone obviously realizes pass rusher is more valuable. Advocating for ILB depth/upgrades doesn’t mean one doesn’t put a premium on pass rushers lol

What's an argument Thompson frequently made? 

Thompson would never make an argument for us to draft Smith 14th overall.  If every single pass rusher with a first round grade is drafted before us, taking into consideration offensive players, we're guaranteed an equally rated defensive back, at which point we take the defensive back.

If we trade down, sure, pick Smith if he's available in the 21-32 range.  If we stay at 14, there WILL be a better pass rusher or defensive back, and pass rushers and defensive backs are twice as important as inside linebackers.  It's really that simple. 

[Packerraymond]

If Smith is the best defensive player on the board at 14, I hope we take Smith. If he's not I hope we don't.

I'm really over positions at this point. We need someone who makes a difference when he's on the field.

As much as we don't need a DL, if Vita Vea goes out there this weekend and blows it out of the water, sign me up.

Having to make choices about how to get our really good players on the field is a decision I'd love for Pettine to have to make.

[moretti19]

1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly play different positions.  Martinez and Smith wouldn't.  Not here anyway. 

And that's not going to happen.  Smith is not going to be the highest graded defensive player when we pick.  It's not possible, given the all but guaranteed number of quarterbacks, running backs, offensive linemen, receivers and defensive linemen that will go in the first 13 picks, for Smith to be rated that much higher than a much more important position.

Inside linebacker is bottom of the barrel as far as importance to a defense.  There will be a more premium position at an equal or better grade than Smith, so it's just a nonsense debate to ask why we don't draft Smith.

Additionally, that quick type of inside linebacker has been WAY too overvalued in the NFL the past few seasons.  Reddick and Thompson and a bunch of others, including Smith, are luxury picks.  When was the last time a purely inside linebacker was worth this high of a pick?  C.J. Moseley wasn't even a top 14 pick, and he's just as capable in the passing game as Smith while being considerably more capable in the run game.  Smith is 225 pounds.  Safeties are in that range these days.  If you think Smith is gonna be on the field in much more than passing situations his first year, you don't fully understand the difference between college and NFL games. 

I really hoped Blake's strong 2017 would end this argument.  Last year we had to sit through Reuben Foster and Hasaan Reddick arguments.  The year before that it was Myles Jack.  This year it's Smith. 

Well it is possible he grades out as the best defensive player. I would say that Kuelchy was def worth the 1st round pick and is probably the most valuable piece on the Panther defense. It's ok to talk about certain players and the impact they could have without being offended. Like you I would much prefer a OLB,CB, or Derwin James but I can see value of adding SMith to the defense

[Arthur Penske]

13 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

What's an argument Thompson frequently made? 

Thompson would never make an argument for us to draft Smith 14th overall.  If every single pass rusher with a first round grade is drafted before us, taking into consideration offensive players, we're guaranteed an equally rated defensive back, at which point we take the defensive back.

If we trade down, sure, pick Smith if he's available in the 21-32 range.  If we stay at 14, there WILL be a better pass rusher or defensive back, and pass rushers and defensive backs are twice as important as inside linebackers.  It's really that simple. 

That you’re an injury away.

 

i didn’t reference smith or #14

[MacReady]

Just now, moretti19 said:

Well it is possible he grades out as the best defensive player. I would say that Kuelchy was def worth the 1st round pick and is probably the most valuable piece on the Panther defense. It's ok to talk about certain players and the impact they could have without being offended. Like you I would much prefer a OLB,CB, or Derwin James but I can see value of adding SMith to the defense

I'm not offended by it.  If somebody brought up a valid reason why or how an ILB helps our defense, it's worth discussing.  As far as taking offense, the same goes right back at you.  I'm not insulting you, I'm not calling you stupid, I'm legitimately challenging you to come up with valid reasons for drafting Smith.  Read the words and what I'm saying, don't concentrate on the tone of how I say it. 

So far, every reason I've read is tantamount to suggesting we should draft a QB every single time they're the highest rated player on the board, or we should draft players without consideration to who we already have.  The reason this doesn't work is because teams are allotted X amount of capital in order to fill 53 roster spots.  If you're good at one roster spot and bad at another, it makes no sense to upgrade the one you're good at and neglect the one you're not so good at.  It makes half as much sense when you're talking about less important positions. 

Kuechly is one of the most complete linebacker prospects to enter the draft and even he was a 9th overall pick.  Doesn't that tell you something about how NFL teams view the position?  It should.  Look at that draft.  Kuechly was far and away the highest rated inside linebacker for a long time.  Do you dispute that?  Even so, three quarterbacks, a running back, a tackle and two defensive backs were taken before him.  Why?  Because if a team thinks players are close, they're going for the more important positions. 

Jaguars don't count because they're idiots who drafted a receiver.

We are virtually guaranteed a player worth the 14th overall pick at a more important position (pass rush, DB) on defense.  We should go there even if Smith is rated a little higher. 

[MacReady]

Just now, ArthurPensky said:

That you’re an injury away.

 

i didn’t reference smith or #14

Where did Thompson ever say this?  Even if he did, it makes no sense.  Here's why:

We are bad at pass rusher. 
We are bad at cornerback.
We could very easily be bad at safety.
We are good at inside linebacker.

Our best pass rushers have had injury concerns.
Our best cornerbacks have had injury concerns.
Our linebacker just played all 16 games.

If we are making our pick based on "You're an injury away," it still comes down to pass rusher or corner being the better selection. 

"An injury away" is illogical.  An injury away as a firm stance leads directly to best player available as a firm stance irrespective of position.  If you do that, you'll end up with the most talented quarterbacks and fullbacks and kickers and...

[moretti19]

I agree with you if there is a prospect that is a little higher at pass rush or db you go their without question. If ROquan is the pick though I think he could provide us a true leader that we don't have, help sure up the middle of the field where we are constantly attacked, and have the ability to spy quarterbacks. I don't want to say he can guard tight ends because not many can but he without a doubt ads speed and tenacity to our defense.

[Redt]

The argument remains, at #14 you pick the BPA, I think Smith could be that guy and believe he could have an impact all over the field as that is his forte. Devaluing ILB is a big mistake in today's NFL, just look at the Jacksonville D with Jack and T. Smith against the Pats for example. We definitely need guys that can run and chase sideline to sideline. Martinez is solid and made a big jump due to his football IQ, our other ILB just don't have it. I for one am 100% on R. Smith or D. James if available at #14 because I believe that they are impact difference makers regardless of position. Outside of Chubb the other edge guys are not BPA at #14 and we can take that chance in Rd. 2 . 

[MacReady]

Just now, Redt said:

The argument remains, at #14 you pick the BPA, I think Smith could be that guy and believe he could have an impact all over the field as that is his forte. Devaluing ILB is a big mistake in today's NFL, just look at the Jacksonville D with Jack and T. Smith against the Pats for example. We definitely need guys that can run and chase sideline to sideline. Martinez is solid and made a big jump due to his football IQ, our other ILB just don't have it. I for one am 100% on R. Smith or D. James if available at #14 because I believe that they are impact difference makers regardless of position. Outside of Chubb the other edge guys are not BPA at #14 and we can take that chance in Rd. 2 . 

The Jaguars have the best rated cornerback in the NFL since 2015 when it comes to QB passer rating (Bouye) and Jalen Ramsey.  Dion Lewis had 7 receptions and James White had 3. 

They also have Campbell and Fowler Jr. and the one I can't spell and a better pass rush than most teams dream about. 

Telvin Smith was a fifth round draft pick.

Myles Jack was a second round pick. 

Devaluing the linebacker position worked out well for the Jaguars. 

Pass rushers are twice as important if you want to win Super Bowls.  You say "just look at the Jacksonville D with Jack and T. Smith against the Pats for example."

I say, "Just look at the Eagles D with Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham against the Pats for example."

Why?  Because one was the 13th overall pick and a pass rusher who forced Brady's fumble.  The other was the 14th overall pick and a pass rusher who recovered Brady's fumble.

The Eagles won.  The Jaguars lost. 

The Eagles, who had Kendricks (second round) and Bradham (4th round) at linebacker held the Patriots running backs to three total catches.

3 total catches against running backs, 10 total catches against running backs.  Beat the Patriots, lose to the Patriots.

Guarding running backs is important in today's NFL.  Having linebackers to do it is not important. 

Luke Kuechly was a first round pick.  He had a better QB.  Von Miller was a first round pick.  Which one won?  The pass rusher.  Pass rushers win playoff games.  This has been true since the beginning of the NFL.  If there's a pass rusher anywhere near worth the 14th overall pick, you take him and you don't look back.  If there's not, you look at defensive backs.