2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[CWood21]

Just now, ChaRisMa said:

Zone AND boundary. Some real limits on buyers.

I mean, there's always going to be a premium on guy who can play that bump and run coverage, because they're few and far between.  Most guys are those "tweeners" in the sense that they're not pure zone corners but their man skills are above-average.  To me, Josh Jackson is going to be a great CB if he's playing in more zone coverage.  His man coverage isn't awful, but it takes away from his strengths.

[ChaRisMa]

Just now, CWood21 said:

I mean, there's always going to be a premium on guy who can play that bump and run coverage, because they're few and far between.  Most guys are those "tweeners" in the sense that they're not pure zone corners but their man skills are above-average.  To me, Josh Jackson is going to be a great CB if he's playing in more zone coverage.  His man coverage isn't awful, but it takes away from his strengths.

I don’t think I saw him play man more than a half dozen times in the half a season of his that I watched. Slants, shallow ins, curls, and hooks are kind of his kryptonite. But he’s damn good the rest of the way down the field.

[Packerraymond]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, there's always going to be a premium on guy who can play that bump and run coverage, because they're few and far between.  Most guys are those "tweeners" in the sense that they're not pure zone corners but their man skills are above-average.  To me, Josh Jackson is going to be a great CB if he's playing in more zone coverage.  His man coverage isn't awful, but it takes away from his strengths.

If he shows the athletic ability to play man this weekend he's my #1 CB, ball skills like that are rare.

[Leader]

Interesting details about Josh Jackson. I've really not been delving into things too deeply and this "alert" that he's out of his depth in man or press coverage is concerning - especially if we're considering the top CB in the draft? Something doesnt compute there.........

[MacReady]

Just a friendly reminder of the career numbers of all first round receivers from 2015 to last year.  I looked it up because of an article I just read about Zimmer saying that Treadwell needs to get out of his own way.  Treadwell was considered an extremely safe pick at the receiver position.  He has 21 career catches.  2014 was a good year for receivers in round 1.  Since then...

Receptions Yards Touchdowns

56    718    5
75    1058    9
37    568    6
21    215
63    947    3
43    576    3
121    1416    12
139    1908    8
21    193    0
203    2903    18
34    375
11    95
1    12

Amari Cooper with the only remotely respectable career numbers for a first round receiver.  Then you've got players like Diggs and Brown and Thielen, Adams, Thomas, Baldwin and more who were 2nd round picks all the way to undrafted.  All the first round picks who seem to have been worth it from a talent perspective (Beckham, Evans) in the last few years have the personalities of Kardashians, or worse. 

For anybody on the fence about the issue, it's not so much whether or not a receiver is worth a first round pick anymore and I don't really want to keep arguing that.  I think they can sometimes be worth a 20-32 pick.  It's just that right now, for whatever reason, the best value for the receiver position is rounds 2-undrafted. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

3 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said:

For anybody on the fence about the issue, it's not so much whether or not a receiver is worth a first round pick anymore and I don't really want to keep arguing that.  I think they can sometimes be worth a 20-32 pick.  It's just that right now, for whatever reason, the best value for the receiver position is rounds 2-undrafted. 

In some years you would need to use a high first rounder for a special WR, like in 2011 when Atlanta sold the farm to move up to #6 to get Julio Jones. This year there is still little consensus in how the various receivers stack up with each other. a few months back I saw Washington as the top receiver, then Courtland  Sutton. Now neither receiver might be in the top 5 receivers taken. NFL.com currently list the top 5 WRs as Ridley, Cain, Lasley ?, Pettis, Kirk,  (Sutton at 6th, Washington at 9th). In truth, I very much doubt Lasley goes 3rd due to serious behavioural red flags, but that is somewhat besides the point.

This year I don't see great value (ie round 1, pick #14 value) with receivers, possibly excepting Ridley who would look much better at 200lb than his current listed 190lb, but he has a build where that wouldn't be easy for him. That uncertainty at WR is actually a benefit in rounds 2-4, there are a lot of receivers with a similar ranking in that area. NFL.com lists 11 receivers graded between 5.6 and 5.8 - from highest to lowest Lasley, Pettis, Kirk, Sutton, Chark, D.J.Moore, Washington, Gallup, Coutee, J'mon Moore, Miller. No way do all those guys disappear in round 2 or even 3, a couple should still be there in round 4 and I haven't even mentioned guys like St.Brown, Ateman, Hamilton, Burnett, Tate.

So where is the sweet spot for receivers ? I had though it would be round 2, now I am shifting to round three as a great place. Much will depend on who the Packers like and how the board falls, but the numbers suggest the third round is a nice spot for a future potential starting flanker.

This is also the year for a tall WR. J'mon Moore is listed at 6'3", Sutton and Ateman are 6'4", Tate and St. Brown are 6'5". 

[tredpack]

 I'm with both of you on the WR thing, no one is special this year. Although I do see some great value in round 2-3 if it pans out. Basically what you're both saying. 

As much as I want a difference maker at 14, I just don't think its going to happen. My crush of the week is Derwin James, I have a feeling he is going top 7. His physical traits are game altering, no way he gets out of the top 10. Really hope I'm wrong. Not sure how our defense looks with Jones, Ha-Ha and James but thats a lot of speed size to play around with. 

Part of me thinks if Landry is there at 14 that has to be the pick. Put him on the field in passing situations and see how it goes. To me his floor is extremely low, with the ceiling being crazy high. Just don't like the pick. 

Crush#2 of the week is Michel... also agree we don't use RBs enough, but man he would look great in Green and Gold. 

Dream Scenario for me-

1. James

2. Uchenna Nwosu/Key

Trade Up 2/3. Michel

3. TE/WR/Guard

 

[Arthur Penske]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Except that's not the case.  People are advocating Smith/Edmunds based largely off the fact it's a pretty smooth translation to the NFL.  There's a high floor there.  Even if the player doesn't have that kind of impact, you can reasonably predict how good he's going to be.  Even if long-term, they may not be a big impact long-term.  Let me ask you this, do you think that an equally talented ILB has the same impact as a pass rusher?

No. No one does. And I've repeatedly said that. Also, if you read i never mentioned Smith or Edmunds. Or even a high draft pick/FA. I  only stated that an upgrade or some new talent at the ILB position could help the defense.

[MacReady]

Just now, ArthurPensky said:

I  only stated that an upgrade or some new talent at the ILB position could help the defense.

Of course it could help the defense.  Not even I am denying that.  It's just that right now, considering the makeup of our team and who we have, a GOOD pass rusher helps this team more than a GREAT ILB. 

[fattlipp]

I wouldn't mind Nelson, he solves all of our OL problems and can probably play 4 positions at an All-Pro level.

If I had to pick 3 guys I think could be the pick.

 

Edmunds, Nelson, James

 

[tredpack]

30 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Of course it could help the defense.  Not even I am denying that.  It's just that right now, considering the makeup of our team and who we have, a GOOD pass rusher helps this team more than a GREAT ILB. 

Out of curiousty. 

James, Edmunds, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Ward, Jackson, Landry are all gone at 14. 

Who do you want? 

[MacReady]

Just now, tredpack said:

Out of curiousty. 

James, Edmunds, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Ward, Jackson, Landry are all gone at 14. 

Who do you want? 

Davenport.  Then Key?  Hubbard?  Vander Esch (whichever performs best at the combine).  Ideally through a trade down. 

I honestly don't know.  I don't anticipate those players being gone. 

[Packerraymond]

Calling it here on March 2nd. Dark Horse for pick #14 is Dorance Armstrong.

Scary good weigh in, if he's athletic, moves right into the top 20 range. His arms are crazy long and he was almost 260, I was worried he'd be under 240, but Key was the turd who couldn't hold the weight.

I imagine Key added some bad weight with the injuries and time off and to show he's serious he worked hard to cut it. Better be 245-250 by his pro day or the Randy Gregory comps will start flying.

[MacReady]

Hopefully Gute puts a lot of stock into the 40 yard dash for offensive linemen because Nelson just tweaked his hamstring, so he won't run it. 

[moretti19]

4 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Calling it here on March 2nd. Dark Horse for pick #14 is Dorance Armstrong.

Scary good weigh in, if he's athletic, moves right into the top 20 range. His arms are crazy long and he was almost 260, I was worried he'd be under 240, but Key was the turd who couldn't hold the weight.

I imagine Key added some bad weight with the injuries and time off and to show he's serious he worked hard to cut it. Better be 245-250 by his pro day or the Randy Gregory comps will start flying.

Lorenzo Carter measurements look AMAZING also