Bears Early Draft Strategy Thoughts

[dll2000]

To sum below expanded thoughts and reasoning for skimmers:

*Main Goal and strategy should be to Trade down from 8 for another 1.  Best partner is probably Buffalo depending on how board shakes out and who they are targeting.  Be prepared to wait for last second of draft clock for this to happen.  I

*Target blue chip impact athletes regardless of position aside from RBs.

*Continue Strategy of volume for receivers hoping to strike gold.  Don't reach!

*FA/draft targets of OT, Guard, OLB, Corner, Receiver

*"Planet theory" of drafting is always solid one.

*Think in terms of a two year turn around rather than a 1 year one as you break in a new staff and new QB.  Bears have not been drafting early as long as Rams and Eagles were and have not stock piled blue chip players like they did.

*******

Right now I think your number one goal is trading for more picks as value at 8 seems poor for a team not targeting a QB.  This means you have to have 4 or 5 contingency plans and what if plans and you have to stay true to your board as things will change at last second of the clock.

Many are saying  trading down at 8 is a pipe dream, but last year we had trades for no. 1 picks at 10 and 12 for teams moving up for QBs.  Bears actually were most criticized for their trade and were only team not to give up a no. 1 for their QB.   This after an offseason of every "expert" saying this was a historically bad QB class and 2018 is the true year of QB draft talent.  Now the 2018 QB class is getting poo poo'd after prime QBs didn't have expected great seasons (aside from Mayfield), but GMs will fall in love with guys they spend hours on like they always do.  Many teams have aging franchise QBs and need/demand is as big as ever and supply this year is big.  A trade down from 8 is a very real and likely possibility IMO.

Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen, Jackson and Rudolph all may get suitors.  They only need one GM to fall in love with them.  Hopefully all of them get one.  But you have to expect at least 3 of that list are going in round one and possibly 4 or more.

Bears GM should be thinking blue chip players and not reaching for needs with early picks.  Take impact players with high upside.  Don't fill a weak roster spot with just a guy.  I think because of the need for QB those guys can be found in last 10 - 12 picks of first round of this draft and that's where you want to be.

I think high bust rate of receivers means you shouldn't go with a receiver at no. 8 unless the guy is all world obvious talent.  If a freak athlete like Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss is in the draft than you take him wherever, because those guys change the game for you. I haven't scouted this draft much yet, but from what I am hearing he isn't in this class.  I think generally receiver is a volume position that you look to get lucky and strike gold on.  Like RB there is more supply than demand at receiver and while it is a high impact position you can find them in free agency or later rounds. The Antonio Browns of the world are as much luck as skill to find. 

I think Pace agrees given his draft and signing history.  I think he got unlucky last year after Meredith's, White, and Wheaton's early injuries and other guys not stepping up much.  I don't think his moves were illogical or poor talent judgment when you look at big picture.   I think Inman, Gentry and Wright could be decent players as role guys with development and better QB and line play.  I don't think you need all 3, but I am saying each of those are guys may be better athletes and players than people think.

I subscribe to "planet theory" of drafting.  Which is if there is a huge athlete that can move and produces than those are guys you take early as they are rare finds. For example, one of Pace's mistakes I think is he screwed up taking trading up for Floyd and not taking the top OT in 2016 that fell in his lap.  OT is a really hard position to fill in this league.  I adamantly think then as now he should have taken Tunsil even though Tunsil hasn't set league on fire yet.   The potential, value and talent is still there.   

I haven't scouted prospects yet, but McGlinchey, Nelson, Williams are big OL that people are hyping and guys like Wilkinson and Vita Vea are getting a lot of lip service on DL.  I saw some of Vita Vea last night and you have to think that that guy can play and play well in this league.  He looks Samoan too and stereotypically those guys seem to be less injury prone (I'm told genetically its denser bones or something) and even improve with age into their early 30s. 

Ideally you trade out of 8, Buffalo gets its QB and you get 21 and 22.   You take two best players on your board and keep doing that all the way done.
Who knows how board will shake out and who will fall and rise, but players that could be available are: Courtland Sutton, Vita Vea, Mike McGlinchey, Orlando Brown, Josh Jackson, Christian Kirk, Connor Williams.  You are probably guaranteed at least one guy you are desperately coveting and maybe 2.  

Lastly, I think if Pace is perfect he still can't be a legit contender in 2018 so it has to be a 2 year plan of rebuilding and planned accordingly.  That means you have to keep some cap space and you can't trade away picks this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WindyCity]

Trade down and draft blue chip players go against each other.

If you are trading down you are pretty much accepting that you are not picking a blue chip guy and instead are settling for a more flawed player and extra picks.

[WindyCity]

A lot of this is dependent on a QB falling to 8, which very well might not happen with the number of QB needy teams ahead of the Bears. There are 4 that should pick QBs already positioned ahead of them.

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Ideally you trade out of 8, Buffalo gets its QB and you get 21 and 22.   

Windy City makes a great point as to blue chip players and draft position, however I do think the Bears are good enough (or will be after FA) that something like that would be desirable. However...with 5 of the top 6 teams in the draft most likely looking for quarterbacks, and another one in the top 15 most likely doing the same, I simply don't see it. It's going to get crazy come draft time. Which means Indy at #3 becomes the first important player in that mess. And we have to consider just what Cleveland will do. I have an inkling they'll do something wild, but if I'm wrong about that, they may well trade down from #4. And even all that aside, there could be a bidding war for who would take the least compensation between the Bucs and the Bears. So your scenario is nice to consider, but it's far from likely. 

[TB 1]

57 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Windy City makes a great point as to blue chip players and draft position, however I do think the Bears are good enough (or will be after FA) that something like that would be desirable. However...with 5 of the top 6 teams in the draft most likely looking for quarterbacks, and another one in the top 15 most likely doing the same, I simply don't see it. It's going to get crazy come draft time. Which means Indy at #3 becomes the first important player in that mess. And we have to consider just what Cleveland will do. I have an inkling they'll do something wild, but if I'm wrong about that, they may well trade down from #4. And even all that aside, there could be a bidding war for who would take the least compensation between the Bucs and the Bears. So your scenario is nice to consider, but it's far from likely. 

I think there are blue chip players available in the whole first round and not just at the top of the draft. Arron Rodgers was drafted in the 20's and Chandler Jones was taken one pick lower than where Shea was picked by the Bears. It is just a matter of picking the right player who fits your scheme. It is o.k. if Pace trades down.

[51to54]

This whole blue chip thing kind of depends on how blue the chip is.

While there are usually a few blue chippers at the top of every draft, even many of these don't turn into consistent all pros with or without an injury.

I haven't checked the stats on recent drafts lately, but I'd guess that easily about half of first round picks never become consistent pro bowlers.

I think a good case can be made that if you aren't picking in the top 3-4, your odds of drafting a single blue chipper are better with two lower first round picks than one somewhat higher first round pick. Add in that the non-blue chipper of the  two might turn out to be a legit NFL starter while never making the pro bowl.

And horror of horrors, two lower first round picks might turn out to be two really good players while a higher first round pick will NEVER turn out to be two starters, much the less two very good players.

Unless you have a can't miss prospect (White, cough, cough) that fills a big need, I think a team like the Bears that is marginal on starting quality and very short on backup quality would benefit more from two lower first round picks or even a mid first and very high second than the 8th pick.

[Sugashane]

I'm all in favor of trading down. Of course if you feel you have a future HoF or All Pro player available, you take them. But I agree with 51to54. Many of the "blue chip" players fail to live up to expectations.

 

As an example, look at the "blue chip" prospects of the 2012 draft that were top 10 picks

Matt Kalil - OT(Bad player but somehow is getting overpaid still)

Justin Blackmon - WR (Cokehead)

Mark Barron - S (Became a decent LB, was a garbage S)

Trent Richardson - HB (Fail, fail, fail)

RGIII - QB (Injury and was ruined after Shanahan was tossed)

Claiborne - CB (Has some success the last 3 years, but might top out as an average #2)

 

Massive flops all, but look who followed them - 

Kuechely

Gilmore

Poe

Cox

Ingram

Jones

Decastro

 

There is no sure thing, even Luck was a risk. Unsually you won't have as top heavy a list of busts as this, but that to me shows that there is still going to be a massive risk when drafting early. Now that we have the QB, I am more than willing to surround Trubisky with more talented chips. I would rather take Kirk and Donte Jackson, Hubbard, or Edmunds (based on what position we get on FA) over one of Ridley or Ward. There are a few prospects I would be able to snag without looking elsewhere, but the tradeback to BUF has been my favorite for a while. I would be even happier if someone wanted a prospect enough to make a leap like we did for Floyd, then trade further back. Pace has shown he can get value from all over the draft,ore swings is rarely a bad thing once the franchise QB is in place.

[Rogerthat]

How about we stay at 8 and take the best player we can get and constantly thinking that this pie in the sky dream of trading back will solve all our problems is preposterous. 

[Rogerthat]

The bills can just wait anyway. Lamar Jackson and mason Randolph are both looking like mid to late 1st rounders anyway 

 

if the trade went down I’d rather take Gordy Glenn get a proven RT and then draft Christian Kirk than take both their first rounders 

 

also teams looking to trade up will trade for Indy’s pick at 3 not take the scraps at 8 with the bears 

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, TB 1 said:

I think there are blue chip players available in the whole first round and not just at the top of the draft. Arron Rodgers was drafted in the 20's and Chandler Jones was taken one pick lower than where Shea was picked by the Bears. It is just a matter of picking the right player who fits your scheme. It is o.k. if Pace trades down.

I think it's okay, too. I just think Buffalo is going to jump above the Bears if they want to trade up...

21 minutes ago, Rogerthat said:

The bills can just wait anyway. Lamar Jackson and mason Randolph are both looking like mid to late 1st rounders anyway 

 

if the trade went down I’d rather take Gordy Glenn get a proven RT and then draft Christian Kirk than take both their first rounders 

 

also teams looking to trade up will trade for Indy’s pick at 3 not take the scraps at 8 with the bears 

At least one of Rudolph or Jackson is bound to go early, and they both might. But yeah, Indy's pick will be the big deal, and I have a hard time seeing them not trading with Buffalo, particularly if Cleveland scrambles the draft. 

[WindyCity]

3 hours ago, TB 1 said:

I think there are blue chip players available in the whole first round and not just at the top of the draft. Arron Rodgers was drafted in the 20's and Chandler Jones was taken one pick lower than where Shea was picked by the Bears. It is just a matter of picking the right player who fits your scheme. It is o.k. if Pace trades down.

You can find good players anywhere in the draft.

Neither of the guys you mention were blue chip players. They developed into stars.

Von Miller was a blue chip prospect. He literally came out of the box as a Pro Bowler.

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, Rogerthat said:

The bills can just wait anyway. Lamar Jackson and mason Randolph are both looking like mid to late 1st rounders anyway 

 

if the trade went down I’d rather take Gordy Glenn get a proven RT and then draft Christian Kirk than take both their first rounders 

 

also teams looking to trade up will trade for Indy’s pick at 3 not take the scraps at 8 with the bears 

Or trade a couple mid round picks for Alex Smith and don’t blow 2 picks on a huge reach.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Rogerthat said:

The bills can just wait anyway. Lamar Jackson and mason Randolph are both looking like mid to late 1st rounders anyway 

 

if the trade went down I’d rather take Gordy Glenn get a proven RT and then draft Christian Kirk than take both their first rounders 

 

also teams looking to trade up will trade for Indy’s pick at 3 not take the scraps at 8 with the bears 

Jackson and Rudolph are expected to fall to late 1 (or lower) because they are lesser QB prospects.

Also, it’s far from a foregone conclusion that those teams would trade with Indy to 3 versus to us at 8, both because Indy will likely be able to take the top player on their board there (assuming Luck is expected back) and because the cost to get to 3 from the middle of the 1st or lower is far higher than to get to 8. The cost for WSH to get to 3 starts with 13, this year’s 2 & next year’s 1, and probably then some on top of that. From 13 to 8 probably costs them this and next year’s 2. Maybe less. Plus, we aren’t talking about Andrew Luck level QB prospects here. Even Darnold and Rosen who are expected to go 1/2 or 2/1 are flawed. Those behind them are bigger question marks. 

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

I'm all in favor of trading down. Of course if you feel you have a future HoF or All Pro player available, you take them. But I agree with 51to54. Many of the "blue chip" players fail to live up to expectations.

 

As an example, look at the "blue chip" prospects of the 2012 draft that were top 10 picks

Matt Kalil - OT(Bad player but somehow is getting overpaid still)

Justin Blackmon - WR (Cokehead)

Mark Barron - S (Became a decent LB, was a garbage S)

Trent Richardson - HB (Fail, fail, fail)

RGIII - QB (Injury and was ruined after Shanahan was tossed)

Claiborne - CB (Has some success the last 3 years, but might top out as an average #2)

 

Massive flops all, but look who followed them - 

Kuechely

Gilmore

Poe

Cox

Ingram

Jones

Decastro

 

There is no sure thing, even Luck was a risk. Unsually you won't have as top heavy a list of busts as this, but that to me shows that there is still going to be a massive risk when drafting early. Now that we have the QB, I am more than willing to surround Trubisky with more talented chips. I would rather take Kirk and Donte Jackson, Hubbard, or Edmunds (based on what position we get on FA) over one of Ridley or Ward. There are a few prospects I would be able to snag without looking elsewhere, but the tradeback to BUF has been my favorite for a while. I would be even happier if someone wanted a prospect enough to make a leap like we did for Floyd, then trade further back. Pace has shown he can get value from all over the draft,ore swings is rarely a bad thing once the franchise QB is in place.

You list a bunch of failed picks, but more often than not the blue chip guys are really good.

Bosa

Elliott

Ransey

Went 3, 4, 5 in the same Draft. The blue chip guys go early.

[AZBearsFan]

1 minute ago, WindyCity said:

Or trade a couple mid round picks for Alex Smith and don’t blow 2 picks on a huge reach.

Or sign Cousins. Or Bradford. Or Bridgewater. Or McCown and draft a guy in the 2nd.