Ask Keyser - 2017 Fantasy Questions Thread

[keysersoze3421]

On 8/12/2017 at 11:40 PM, Frankie2Gunz said:

Who's a better keeper Cooper or Michael Thomas and why?  

I much prefer Thomas.  Better offensive set-up, more consistent.  Cooper was far too hot and cold for me last year, and I need to see him perform with some consistency first.  He has 6 games against tough corners in the West, plus some other daunting matchups.

[keysersoze3421]

On 8/13/2017 at 8:50 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I did the trade to swap from 3rd to 9th 

Anyone have auction advice? $200 budget, 10 teams non-ppr

What % is safe to spend on your starters? I find that i keep spending about 80% on my starters leaving me 40 for 7 players which seems sort of high because most bench guys are values half that 

How do you safely set your projected $ amounts without screwing yourself on draft day?

Look at average auction values.  Don't spend more than $1 on your QB and most of your bench.  Mid-tier TEs are really cheap.  Wait on a Rudolph for $5 or less.  

I usually like to buy two first-rounders and a second rounder.  Then fill in my other slots with discount guys.  Look for plug-in RBs for cheap: J. Rodgers, West, Forte, Gore, etc.  Those guys can fill out your bench.  

Don't save your money!  Leftover money does you no good.

Nominate guys you don't want.  I always like to nominate high-priced WR/RB I don't like or high-priced QBs.

Pay attention to tiers.  If you have 5 guys in a tier, it might be the smart play to pay less for the last two in the tier than it is to buy the top two.

[keysersoze3421]

22 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Anyone worried about AJ Green and Dez Bryant? Green has missed 9 games in 3 years and Dez 10 in 2?

Both are Top-2 round players in all formats same for Jay Ajayi's concussion?

6 of Green's 9 were last year.  Prior to that, he had played 76 of a possible 80 games.  Wouldn't worry about him.  Maybe Dez after the last two years, but before that he was routinely healthy.  I try to be injury agnostic with guys who aren't constantly out due to soft tissue injuries.

[keysersoze3421]

20 hours ago, bigben07MVP said:

Need some help here.

Who would you draft out of:

a) Martavis Bryant

b) Terrell Pryor Sr.

c) Kelvin Benjamin 

Also:

a) Mike Thomas

b) Dez Bryant

c) Amari Cooper

d) Jay Ajayi

Without any other background info, Pryor and M. Thomas.

[keysersoze3421]

19 hours ago, Bianconero said:

Am I crazy for wanting to take Terrelle Pryor #14 (2.2) in a twelve team, .5 PPR ?

I really don't like anyone with my first two picks (#11 and #14), but love Pryor

No way.  Too early if it's a non-keeper.  I have a clear top 19, and I would take two of those guys.

[keysersoze3421]

1 hour ago, mattyice0401 said:

I think I may know your answer Key or SoS, But what are your thoughts on taking Zeke in the 3rd if hes still on the board? 10 man PPR redraft league. When do you think we will get your Qb and TE rankings Key? thanks as always good sir! love this thread on stoked I made it over to the new website!

 

Nevermind! I went to your WR tiers page and saw that you're posting one of the 2 today.

Thanks for coming over.  Posting TE shortly.

 

I would definitely take Zeke in the third.  That's about where my risk tolerance lies.

[keysersoze3421]

31 minutes ago, 101Raider said:

So just had our draft the other day and looking for feedback on my team.  This is 12 team, start:  2QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX, DEF, K draft.  0.5 PPR and 3 points bonus for: 300 yrs passing, 100 yrs rushing/receiving.

I picked from the 7 spot

 

RD 1: Julio Jones WR.  

RD 2: Jordan Howard RB

RD3: Gronk TE

RD 4: Marcus Mariota QB

RD 5: CJ Anderson RB

RD 6: Jameis Winston QB

RD 7: Martavius Bryant WR

RD 8: Bilial Powell RB

RD 9: Stefon Diggs WR

RD 10: Matt Forte RB

RD 11:Jeremy Maclin WR

RD 12: Jamaal Charles RB

RD 13: Alex Smith WB

RD 14: Joe Williams RB

RD 15: Pittsburgh Def

 

Team:

QB Marcus Mariota

QB: Jameis Winston

RB: Jordan Howard

RB: CJ Anderson

WR: Julio Jones

WR: Martavius Bryant

Flex: Bilial Powell (may be S. Diggs)

Def: Pit (great early season games, but plan on streaming later)

K: TBD

Bench:

QB: Alex Smith

RB: Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Joe Williams

WR: Stefon Diggs, Jeremy Maclin

 

Brief thoughts:  This went counter to all of my previous plans.  I intended to start RB/RB, but Julio was a huge surprise gift.  This caused me to panic in the 2nd by forcing a RB that I don't love in a PPR format in J. Howard.  Still, I don't hate Howard, I'm just worried about a Gurley like regression (though I actually like Gurley this year).  In the 3rd, I couldn't pass up Gronk that late, though I fully planned on being one of the last TE drafters this year (was going to target Ertz in like the 10th).  I like CJ more than most people this year with the under the radar improvements to the line and Booker's injury, though I chose to prioritize taking Charles later.  I got both my targeted QBs, though I had originally planned to take Winston in the 5th.  I was thrilled to see him there a round later.  Big fan of Bryant this year and in a PPR: Powell, Diggs and  Maclin were great depth in my opinion.  In fact, I LOVE Powell on that garbage Jets offense.  He's likely their #1 receiving threat this year.  Felt dirty about Forte though... 

Not at all what I anticipated happening, but all in all, I am very happy with my team.  Love my QBs, TE and WRs.  Not thrilled about my RBs, but think a rotation of Howard, CJ and Powell will serve me well, so don't hate it...

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

Nice balanced team.  Love the Winston-Mariota pairing in a 2QB league.  I think there is HUGE upside there, and Smith is a nice high-floor backup.

At RB, I like your starters, and Powell and Forte provide a nice floor play.  The Joe Williams pick was good because it gives you some upside on your bench.

I would prefer Martavis as a flex, and in fact, I might pencil Maclin in as your weekly 2.  

Overall, I think I would give this a B+.  Might not have gone Gronk in the 3rd, but that's also really good value.

[Bianconero]

Where do we see your top 19 players list?

[keysersoze3421]

Just now, Bianconero said:

Where do we see your top 19 players list?

I'll just tell you it:

1. DJ

2. Bell

3. Brown

4. Beckham

5. Nelson

6. Julio

7. Green

8. Gordon

9. McCoy

10. Evans

11. Murray

12. Thomas

13. Freeman

14. Ajayi

15. Gronk

16. Dez

17. Hilton

18. Howard

19. Elliott (assuming 6 games stands)

[101Raider]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Nice balanced team.  Love the Winston-Mariota pairing in a 2QB league.  I think there is HUGE upside there, and Smith is a nice high-floor backup.

At RB, I like your starters, and Powell and Forte provide a nice floor play.  The Joe Williams pick was good because it gives you some upside on your bench.

I would prefer Martavis as a flex, and in fact, I might pencil Maclin in as your weekly 2.  

Overall, I think I would give this a B+.  Might not have gone Gronk in the 3rd, but that's also really good value.

Thanks Keyser, I truly value and appreciate your opinion as always. Good luck this year and I'll continue to follow and post in your thread 

[Frankie2Gunz]

3 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Amari Cooper?  Definitely him.  I would take Mixon as my other guy.  In a start-1RB league, I'm less interested in having both Cook and Mixon.  

Thanks for the feedback.  Here is the latest on that situation.  I have the 3rd and 4th pick in the first round, all keepers are in.  I am assuming Fournett and McCafrey are going 1 and 2.  I kept Julio, Gurley and Howard and have 1 WR and 1 Flex spot to fill.  My choices to fill in those positions are Michael Thomas, A. Cooper, D. Murray, Mixon and Cook.  

I feel like I could go Thomas and Cooper but I have a feeling Mixon is going to be a stud who will be a first round pick next year.  If I dont get him now I never will.  Also I am not sold on Howard as being a stud nor am I sold on Cooper.  I am a huge raider fan but Cooper is not Megatron.  He is a great possession WR but he doesn't have it in the Red Zone and is not strong with press coverage or preforming well in tight spaces.  Michael Thomas is a stud WR but my only concern is when Brees retires his production will fall off.  

As of now I am targeting Thomas and Mixon with 3 and 4.  Thoughts?

[Dolmonite26]

So to piggy back of my keeper question (I'll be keeping Hilton, Cooper, Ware, and Prosise), I'm curious on what I should do with the 12th and 13th picks that I have.

Keepers haven't been announced yet but I have a rough idea of who could be available, I will list them I order of probability from highest to lowest.

Dez Bryant

Gronk

Brees (2QB league)

Zeke

*Jordy Nelson

*Freeman

*Mike Evans

Players with asterisks are the one that I will take without question if they are they, but I'm dubious of any being there.

Finally other players that will certainly be there but I'm not considering are: Miller, Gurly, Fournette, Baldwin, Demarious Thomas, Hopkins and Lynch.

 

Anyway curious of who you guys would pick (particularly in this context)/how you would rank them.

Thank you.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

10 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Would consider looking at Fantasy Pros' auction values.

My strategy in auctions is usually to accumulate 3 stars and fill in my team around them with $1 specials.

When you say stars what do you mean? Also, how much do you spend on them? You seriously mean like 180 or so? Thought id spend that much on 4-5 but not 3

[JaguarCrazy2832]

5 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Look at average auction values.  Don't spend more than $1 on your QB and most of your bench.  Mid-tier TEs are really cheap.  Wait on a Rudolph for $5 or less.  

I usually like to buy two first-rounders and a second rounder.  Then fill in my other slots with discount guys.  Look for plug-in RBs for cheap: J. Rodgers, West, Forte, Gore, etc.  Those guys can fill out your bench.  

Don't save your money!  Leftover money does you no good.

Nominate guys you don't want.  I always like to nominate high-priced WR/RB I don't like or high-priced QBs.

Pay attention to tiers.  If you have 5 guys in a tier, it might be the smart play to pay less for the last two in the tier than it is to buy the top two.

This helps thanks. Still feel like if I'm the only one spending 170+ on 3 guys I wont be able to afford those other guys at $1

[Dr LBC]

On 8/13/2017 at 5:50 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Anyone have auction advice? $200 budget, 10 teams non-ppr

I'll forward you the same PM I sent to domepatrol when he was looking at getting into auction drafts.  It's got a ton of really good resource and strategy material.  A lot of it really comes down to knowing your leaguemates and being able to try and predict who they're going to covet and how you can play that to your advantage.