Ask Keyser - 2017 Fantasy Questions Thread

[Rockice_8]

I'm grabbing Doug Martin in all my leagues this year.  At that point in the draft it's a huge crap shoot so if he gets back to form could be dare I say an RB1 upside type pick.  I mean at worst he'll be a high end flex most weeks since TB should score a ton. 

[MightyMouse07]

16 hours ago, MightyMouse07 said:

I'm in a 12 man keeper league so 24 players are being kept. We do have a 3 year restriction on them so it helps with recycling good players back into the first round. This year there are 8 clear top players (if you include Zeke) and then there is a drop off into Cooper, Murray area of ADP for the bottom of the first round. I traded a first last year for Zeke for the stretch run and won it all. So this year I have the #14 pick and that guys 2nd round pick #22. I am keeping David Johnson and Terrelle Pryor both as 9th round picks. I was thinking of offering #14 and #22 for the #3 and #83 (8th round) pick. I'd still have a 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and two 8ths to fill out my starting roster but this move would take me from the Leonard Fournette's of the world to the ODB or Antonio Browns of the world to pair with my two studs. You think it is a good idea or am I being dumb? 

I mapped out the guys available in the second round based on keepers and ADP:

#14 would be Fournette and #22 would be Devante Adams. So it makes me feel like I should make the move and have a real solid core of DJ ODB Pryor to lean on and then I can grab an RB2 like Spencer Ware in the 3rd to give me a real solid starting group. 

[broncos67]

So I'm in an unenviable fantasy football position. I'm picking 5th (non-keeper league). Prior to Zeke's suspension, I felt pretty good about getting one of either Zeke or OBJ at that pick. Now, I'd happily take OBJ if he were available but I suspect he won't be.

My question is, what do you guys think about the Julio/Mike Evans/McCoy triumvirate? They're basically the 3 guys I'm considering at 5. I tend to lean McCoy because of RB scarcity, but I think Julio and Evans are better fantasy options. It's a PPR league with 12 guys. Just having a lot of back and forth in my head.

[keysersoze3421]

2 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

If you take DeMarco in the 2nd round...do you feel like Henry is a must get in the mid-rounds? And when do you think you'd need to take him? Around rounds 6-7? 

Not necessarily a must-get, but I would probably consider him in the 6th.

[keysersoze3421]

2 hours ago, SoS said:

I haven't done any mocks or anything so maybe competitive leagues are taking him earlier than I thought, but ESPN is showing Martin as RB39 and 115 overall, which means you can safely get him in the 9th round in a 12 team league. 

Watch out for Quizz this year. I know everyone is falling in love with his performance from last year, but even with Martin out, let's not forget that he also didn't have the competition of Charles Sims and Jeremy McNichols siphoning touches from him. Quizz was rather volume dependent and if that takes a hit, he's not going to be the early-season value he's being cracked up to be. 

Martin's a mid-5th or 6th in most drafts.

[keysersoze3421]

2 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

I'm grabbing Doug Martin in all my leagues this year.  At that point in the draft it's a huge crap shoot so if he gets back to form could be dare I say an RB1 upside type pick.  I mean at worst he'll be a high end flex most weeks since TB should score a ton. 

I don't know why you would assume that.  He was absolutely terrible last year when he was on the field.

[keysersoze3421]

2 hours ago, AlanFanecaFan said:

In a 10 team ppr league where we start 3 rbs...is Theo Riddick worth trading a 6th rd pick for?

RBs being kept as keepers already are Riddick-Howard-Powell-Montgomery-Coleman(by me for a 10th).

 

im leaning towards NOT doing the trade despite needing to start 3rbs but wanted advice elsewhere...thanks.

No, he's closer to a 7th or 8th in 10-team leagues.  You're not getting much value there.

[keysersoze3421]

1 hour ago, MightyMouse07 said:

I mapped out the guys available in the second round based on keepers and ADP:

#14 would be Fournette and #22 would be Devante Adams. So it makes me feel like I should make the move and have a real solid core of DJ ODB Pryor to lean on and then I can grab an RB2 like Spencer Ware in the 3rd to give me a real solid starting group. 

I'd go ahead and do that trade to secure the elite player.

[keysersoze3421]

5 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

So I'm in an unenviable fantasy football position. I'm picking 5th (non-keeper league). Prior to Zeke's suspension, I felt pretty good about getting one of either Zeke or OBJ at that pick. Now, I'd happily take OBJ if he were available but I suspect he won't be.

My question is, what do you guys think about the Julio/Mike Evans/McCoy triumvirate? They're basically the 3 guys I'm considering at 5. I tend to lean McCoy because of RB scarcity, but I think Julio and Evans are better fantasy options. It's a PPR league with 12 guys. Just having a lot of back and forth in my head.

I'd take Nelson over all three, but if you're compelled to grab one of those three, I'd take Jones.  

[Rockice_8]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze3421 said:

I don't know why you would assume that.  He was absolutely terrible last year when he was on the field.

Now I can't find it of course but I read that Martin got a workhorse like amount of touches down the stretch of last season when he came back from injury.  Just easy math will show in the 8 games he played he carried the ball 18 times a game.  If that is any indication of how the coaches view him still he could be in line for a big workload and never a stacked box due to the pass catching weapons they have in TB.  In the 8th-9th round why not take that chance for that upside.  I mean yeah he did average like 3 yards a carry when he came back but now that he's healthy he will get every chance to get that job back when he returns.  A slight bump to the mid 3's per carry could translate to a solid player.  

If that is true that he is going in the 5th/6th now then I get the hesitation to draft him but I was still under the assumption that he was going later like 8th/9th.

[holt_bruce81]

I'd like to hear what your guys' strategy is in round 2. Say you grab one of the WRs in round 1. Where are you leaning in round 2? Do you feel like RB is a must? For me, I love the top 10 WRs and Gronk (I feel he can provide top 12 WR numbers)  but I feel like if I don't grab at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds, I'm going to be regretting it later. 

[Dr LBC]

5 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Few thoughts on last few pages:

-Zeke's appeal will not result in him missing time late in the season.  His punishment would be deferred to 2018 like Brady's.

-DeMarco Murray's second half "slump" is way overstated.  His weekly finishes in PPR in weeks 9-16: 8, 6, 11, 14, BYE, 17, 11, 46.  That's a median finish of RB11 in PPR, better than Freeman, Ajayi, and Howard.

-I'm still sold on Pryor as a high end WR2 in fantasy based on target volume alone.

-I wouldn't use Jeremy Hill probably, but I would try to avoid the Bengals' backfield the first couple of weeks generally speaking.

Worth pointing out, it was also occurring during a period where he was suffering a foot injury - and injury he had surgically corrected this season.  I do think Tennessee will try to mix Henry in just because of the quality of runner that he is, but they're also going to try to run DeMarco until the tread is bare - as this also allows them to keep the mileage low on Henry, thus making him someone they'll feel far more at ease committing good money to when the time comes because he won't have the kind of wear on him that other runners his age would.

[MdTitansFan56]

6 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Think I'll pass on Moncrief.  I'm thinking more and more about Gillislee.  His huge TD upside makes him a good RB2 candidate in my mind.  I wouldn't fault you for taking Ingram, though I could see him being easily displaced.  I think those options are all roughly in the same tier, so I don't have a strong preference.

I ended up going with the Ingram combination. Moncrief is often injured and Luck is hurt as well. I will be able to grab him or a guy in the same tier as him in the 3rd/4th. I really want to keep Gillislee but am likely going to target him in the 4th. Ingram has always been in a committee, I feel like he will lose some carries to AP but will be on the field more for passing situations until Kamara is ready then he may phase out a little, I still feel like he could be a quality number 2. The case against Gillislee is he is injured already, NE is tough to tell who is going to get the ball with him being injured already I feel like he is at a big disadvantage. Ingram seems safer, but I would love to end up with Gillislee as my 3/4 hb. 

[Dr LBC]

47 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I'd like to hear what your guys' strategy is in round 2. Say you grab one of the WRs in round 1. Where are you leaning in round 2? Do you feel like RB is a must? For me, I love the top 10 WRs and Gronk (I feel he can provide top 12 WR numbers)  but I feel like if I don't grab at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds, I'm going to be regretting it later. 

I feel like a parrot repeating this so much, but it really depends on your league and the people in it.  In one league I'm in where I know that people in it overvalue QB's, I actually rehearsed WR-WR mocks just seeing what I could end up with.  I'm OK with taking Gronk but I have no desire to reach for him - even as there continues to be more disparity in terms of TE's.  I tended to find in mocks that taking him limited my later strategies more than I preferred; i.e. I could necessarily feel as comfortable rolling the dice on guys with lengthier injury histories (but big upsides) or who are currently carrying injuries (which was why they had slipped on the draft board), because I was trying to regain ground on guys who had gotten clear-cut WR1's or RB1's in the round I'd taken Gronk.  Again, I play in mostly 14-team leagues, so the amount of guys off the board by the time the pick gets back around to me in these leagues is more notable, especially as the draft gets further along.

As to waiting on RB's, I think it has a lot to do with how your league is structured in terms of how many RB's could potentially start a week for any team, how deep your benches are, and how the scoring is formatted (i.e. can TD-dependent RB's actually carry your roster given the scoring format or are rushing/receiving yards necessary for a starting RB on your team to be a consistent weekly competitor on par with the average of your league?).

I'll say this, in the instances of practice where I went WR-WR, I did so already conceding that I was going to reach (if necessary) for specific RB's later on that I had confidence in, value be damned.  The problem I can foresee (and have had happen to me in drafts of previous years) is if there are one or two people in your league who tend to think and value particular players similarly to how you do.  Because you can end up the proverbial creek in a hurry if you push your chips in on a strategy of conceding to reach on a specific guy at your next pick because of his floor/ceiling combo relative to your earlier strategy and someone else snakes him a couple picks ahead of you, making a similar such "reach" because they place similar value in him.

[Dr LBC]

6 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Think I'll pass on Moncrief.  I'm thinking more and more about Gillislee.  His huge TD upside makes him a good RB2 candidate in my mind.  I wouldn't fault you for taking Ingram, though I could see him being easily displaced.  I think those options are all roughly in the same tier, so I don't have a strong preference.

Yeah, my issue with Ingram is that on the season you're going to get likely a Top 12-15 RB performance, but week-to-week he's not a consistent contributor you can count on - through no fault of his own, it's largely on Sean Payton just deciding to give a bulk of touches to a different back like he did last season with Hightower.  That lack of dependable week-to-week consistency, per rule of thumb, tends to put guys more in the comfortable FLEX but not necessarily someone you want to be rolling out most weeks as a RB2.

In comparison to Gillislee, while he's certain in a somewhat similar situation where his touches could swing dynamically from one week to the next, you can at least be confident that some of the touches he's going to get consistently week-to-week are going to be inside the opponent's 10.  That kind of upside actually has me with Gillislee two tiers above Ingram (granted, Gilly is the last guy in my 3rd tier and Ingram leads off my 5th tier, but it's worth noting).  I've always (and I think key is similar because for years we used to roll with the same guy to target in Fred Jackson) targeted consistency as the top asset in my RB2; floor over upside.  This is largely because WR's tend to have way more tendency to go on swings from week to week, so if you're creating a balance team, you want to lay hands on consistency at the positions that typically tend to give it to you more readily when you can.