Ask Keyser - 2017 Fantasy Questions Thread

[SoS]

1 hour ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I'd like to hear what your guys' strategy is in round 2. Say you grab one of the WRs in round 1. Where are you leaning in round 2? Do you feel like RB is a must? For me, I love the top 10 WRs and Gronk (I feel he can provide top 12 WR numbers)  but I feel like if I don't grab at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds, I'm going to be regretting it later. 

I'll say this. 2nd round RBs scare the hell out of me. I haven't done any deep analysis into this, but if I had to predict a position and round with an unusually high bust rate, it would be 2nd round RBs. Why? Because they tend to be the guys who flashed the year prior to finally have that golden opportunity, but we have no idea how they'll actually respond to it. Here are some popular 2nd round draft picks over the last couple of years at RB: 

2014 - Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin (all 4 busted)  

2015 - CJ Anderson, Justin Forsett, Jeremy Hill (all 3 busted) 

2016 - Eddie Lacy, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles (all 5 busted) 

 

Who do we have this year? 1 year wonders like Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi who will both have to respond to added pressure as THE guy on their respective offenses. A guy like Isaiah Crowell who has one good season. And some 2016 busts in Gurley and Miller. Not a deeply appealing group IMO. 

 

 

I don't like to preach a set strategy when entering a draft, because ultimately you don't know who's going to fall to you and you can't ignore value. With that said, I find that my first three rounds generally go in this order: 

1: RB

2: WR

3: WR

I'm a believer that blue chip RBs are the most valuable entity in the draft, so I want my favorite from the get-go. From there, I always love the depth of the WR position and I usually feel really good about finding value at my WR1 and WR2 spots in those rounds (guys like Dez Bryant and Doug Baldwin this year would be a great pair). I like to target a small group of value QBs and TEs from there and try to plan ahead where and when I might take them. If a guy like Rodgers falls to round 4, I'll swoop him. If QBs go early, I have no problem doubling down in the later rounds on guys like Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer. Same thing with TEs. If a guy like Travis Kelce falls to the 4th, I'll swoop him. If TEs go earlier than value dictates, I have no problem doubling down on guys like Martellus Bennett and Zach Ertz in the later rounds. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

8 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Nelson

Green

Gordon

Murray

Thomas

Freeman

Hilton

I think we're pretty much the same except i have Freeman ahead of Murray. Any reason why you think Murray is ahead of him?

[Dr LBC]

12 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I think we're pretty much the same except i have Freeman ahead of Murray. Any reason why you think Murray is ahead of him?

I can't speak for him, but I have them relatively even with a slight nudge to Freeman (mostly because we know, for the most part, how the use/touches-split is going to work out in the Freeman/Coleman - with that also seeming to suggest that Coleman is the bigger regression candidate from last season of the two and that Coleman's not going to gank goal-line carries from Freeman; whereas I'm not as convinced when it comes to the Murray/Henry and could see Henry stealing some from Murray).

I'm comfortable drafting either and have them comfortably in the same tier as my RB's 4 and 5 - if we handicap Zeke for the moment due to the "unknown aspect" of his suspension (if he doesn't serve the suspension this season, he slots in above these to and Shady, but it only bumps each of these guys down one spot).  I actually have them both above Gordon (same tier, but he's my RB6/7).

[JaguarCrazy2832]

5 minutes ago, The LBC said:

I can't speak for him, but I have them relatively even with a slight nudge to Freeman (mostly because we know, for the most part, how the use/touches-split is going to work out in the Freeman/Coleman - with that also seeming to suggest that Coleman is the bigger regression candidate from last season of the two and that Coleman's not going to gank goal-line carries from Freeman; whereas I'm not as convinced when it comes to the Murray/Henry and could see Henry stealing some from Murray).

I'm comfortable drafting either and have them comfortably in the same tier as my RB's 4 and 5 - if we handicap Zeke for the moment due to the "unknown aspect" of his suspension (if he doesn't serve the suspension this season, he slots in above these to and Shady, but it only bumps each of these guys down one spot).  I actually have them both above Gordon (same tier, but he's my RB6/7).

Freeman getting a concussion worries me some but his big new contract makes me think he won't see a reduction in PT

[broncos67]

17 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

I'd take Nelson over all three, but if you're compelled to grab one of those three, I'd take Jones.  

I like Jordy, but 5 feels really high for him. Julio is the safest, Evans has the highest upside. I'd basically be taking McCoy solely because the bellcow-RB position is pretty barren, and McCoy has a high floor barring injury (I think).

[scoobz]

Two questions, two separate .5 PPR leagues.

 

#1 - Have pick #11 out of 12.  I can keep Evans at #11 or Shady at #14.  Which would be better?  I'm leaning Evans because I trust him more.

#2 - Have #1 pick in another keeper league.  Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell will be there.  Bell is the no-brainer if it wasn't for this sitting out stuff.  Thoughts?

[AFF]

1 hour ago, scoobz said:

Two questions, two separate .5 PPR leagues.

 

#1 - Have pick #11 out of 12.  I can keep Evans at #11 or Shady at #14.  Which would be better?  I'm leaning Evans because I trust him more.

#2 - Have #1 pick in another keeper league.  Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell will be there.  Bell is the no-brainer if it wasn't for this sitting out stuff.  Thoughts?

1)Shady

2)Bell or maybe DJ if not already kept due to higher td potential since it's a .5 ppr league

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 8/16/2017 at 9:45 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Thoughts on these guys because I'm having a hard time buying their ADP in standard leagues 

Hilton

Demaryius

Alshon

Zeke at Top-15 unless it gets reduced. 6 is half the season

Baldwin

 

Guys who i think are underrated:

Davante Adams

Spencer Ware

Allen Robinson

Michael Crabtree

Kelvin Benjamin

Joe Mixon

Frank Gore

Robert Kelley

Doug Martin

 

 

[holt_bruce81]

@JaguarCrazy2832 as a Jaguar fan, are you banking on Allen Robinson returning to his 2015 form? And I actually think Joe Mixon is being overrated. I mean he's clearly the most talented RB on that team, just think its going to take Marvin Lewis 3-4 games to realize it. Which is why  like the Hill/Gio/Doug Martin combo super late in drafts. Feel like you're getting an RB2 for the first few weeks and then replacing that with a high end RB2 when Martin comes back. 

[MdTitansFan56]

13 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

@JaguarCrazy2832 as a Jaguar fan, are you banking on Allen Robinson returning to his 2015 form? And I actually think Joe Mixon is being overrated. I mean he's clearly the most talented RB on that team, just think its going to take Marvin Lewis 3-4 games to realize it. Which is why  like the Hill/Gio/Doug Martin combo super late in drafts. Feel like you're getting an RB2 for the first few weeks and then replacing that with a high end RB2 when Martin comes back. 

Until Jacksonville finds a QB that can get the ball to Allen Robinson and the line picks up their protection I'm having a hard time trusting Allen Robinson as anything more than a low end 2 at most. I like the player, I like the volume he gets, hate the QB, line situation. 

I was offered TY Hilton for my 2nd in a keeper league. He would be signed for 2 years max (Players can be kept for 3 years max after being drafted). I countered with giving the guy my 3rd and flipping 2nd (I'd move down 2 spots in the 2nd). You think this would be a good deal for me? Long TD's have bonus points. PPR I feel like I could land a Pryor or Landry type with that second which would give me Hilton, Jeffrey, and the WR there. 

[bigbadbuff23835]

23 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

I'd take Nelson over all three, but if you're compelled to grab one of those three, I'd take Jones.  

You'd take Jordy over Julio??

[bigbadbuff23835]

I have the 7th pick in PPR, 12 team, who should I be targeting? Stupid to still want Zeke?

[broncos67]

1 hour ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

I have the 7th pick in PPR, 12 team, who should I be targeting? Stupid to still want Zeke?

Honestly, feel like you can get him on the way back.

If you figure Bell, Johnson, Brown, OBJ, Julio are gone, you're left with one of Shady/Mike Evans, which isn't a bad spot to be

[holt_bruce81]

I might do something I haven't done since...well ever. And draft 3 RBs in the first 3 Rounds. Been messing around with a few mock drafts...came away with a nice Trio..

5th pick...

Lesean McCoy, Zeke Elliott, Joe Mixon

10th pick...

Devontae Freeman, DeMarco Murray, Joe Mixon

I'm targeting Woodhead and Martin a little later in my draft as backups. And I find that in Round 4 there's still quite a few WRs I like...if I end the draft with say a WR group of Pryor, Tyrell Williams, Fitz and Snead or Ginn...I feel pretty good about it. 

[G-McDog]

Standard NFL.com league. Would you be happy to take Mixon in the 3rd? I'm picking early 3rd, and I'm not convinced he's going to be around until my 4th round pick. It's a keeper league. 

 

He'll be my RB2.