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VanS

Lamar Jackson should get 1st overall pick consideration...

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Now before everyone jumps down my throat, I currently don't have Lamar Jackson as my #1 rated QB.  Nor do I have him among my top 10 overall prospects (regardless of position).  I do, however, have him in the 11-20 range of my prospect rankings.  My argument for him getting 1st overall pick consideration has to do with SHORT-TERM IMPACT.  No other QB in this draft class has the potential to rip apart the league in the short-term like Lamar Jackson.  He can do what Deshaun Watson did last year and then some in terms of early impact. 

My biggest problem with the analysis of Lamar Jackson thus far is that I don't think people are giving his other-worldly athleticism the respect it warrants.  This is a guy who will cause mayhem for NFL defenses the second he steps on the field.  He will be the most dynamic athlete we have seen at the QB position since Michael Vick.  And he'll be playing in an era more suited for running QBs than the era Michael Vick came in.  Teams are playing out of the shotgun more now.  And with the prevalence run/pass option and read option plays, the NFL is starting to look more and more like college.  When Michael Vick was in the league, this was not the case.  And Vick still ended up leading the Falcons to an NFC Championship Game berth.

In addition, I watched Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson rip apart the league in 2012 with their dynamic dual-threat abilities.  Lamar Jackson is significantly better than all 3 when it comes to running the ball.   Put him with the right coaching staff that can take advantage of his legs and I think there is a good chance Lamar Jackson has a 2012 RG3/Colin Kaepernick type season. People are underselling Lamar Jackson's potential as a NFL QB big time.  He'll never be an accurate pocket passer that beats teams from the pocket.  But he will be an athletic phenom that teams will struggle to keep in the pocket.  The floor for Lamar Jackson is Michael Vick in Atlanta.  Which isn't a bad floor at all. 

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Probably the only thing i'll agree with you on. Its a shame he isn't being seriously considered. 

 

-High Character guy, selfless, leader of men (passes the "class" meter)

- Gamechanging athlete 

- Criminally underrated passer

He is a moldable QB who could easily turn into a Cam Newton type of dual threat that can take the league by storm. Thats ok, he will go to a team that believes in him and not afraid to take his talents head on and a GM of a QB needy team that was in position to take him will be fired if he's good. 

Of couse I have to disagree with Vans on something, I think its unrealistic to say Jackson's floor is Vick, his floor is a solid dual threat veteran like Tyrod Taylor. Vick's arm and Jackson's are two different categories.

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The problem with drafting him let's say first pick in the draft is media, fan base are going to expect him to start right away. Where I believe if he can sit down a year or two behind a QB let's say Brees he would have a better chance to being successful instead of throwing him out there to the wolf's. 

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I think his accuracy issues are a little overblown, he’s made significant progress within the pocket to this and looks like he just needs to widen his base to throw from a more stable platform. He’s got a hose too, you rarely hear about that aspect of his game. People also overlook the fact he was not so quick to bail to play to his strengths, he was often running for his life because Petrino wouldn’t max protect even when his team was overmatched up front.

 

Agree that he might never have the accuracy of other QB’s and that’s a problem in some schemes. Some teams will shy away from his skill-set due to the basic fact that coaches coach what they know and many just won’t know what to do with him. Watch out for the team who does though, wouldn’t be a surprise to me if we’re talking about him as the best QB from this class in a few years.

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His draft stock is also suffering a little from recency bias, ended the year on a low run of games where didn't look at his best. 

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44 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

The problem with drafting him let's say first pick in the draft is media, fan base are going to expect him to start right away. Where I believe if he can sit down a year or two behind a QB let's say Brees he would have a better chance to being successful instead of throwing him out there to the wolf's. 

Completely disagree.  He's the QB in this class who should see the field first and is most likely to succeed early.  His strength is his athleticism.  That isn't gonna get better sitting on the bench.  He'll never be a pocket passer.  I wish people would stop trying to make him something he's not.  He's a generational athlete at the QB position.  Put him in an offense that plays to his strengths like Philly did this year with Nick Foles.

There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson can do what RG3 and Colin Kaepernick did in 2012 as a rookie. 

As he gets older and more experience, then you can work to develop him more as a passer.  But right now while he's young and a phenomenal athlete I say use him the way he was used in Louisville.  Make him a weapon in the run and pass game.

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12 minutes ago, Danger said:

He reeks of RG3

That's not a bad thing.  Everyone and their mama loved rookie season RG3 when he was healthy.  The problems started for RG3 after he got hurt.  And kept getting hurt. 

The biggest difference between RG3 and Lamar Jackson IMO is Lamar is more agile.  He's not only a dynamic straight line speed athlete but he also has make u miss ability.  RG3 never had that.  RG3 was a very stiff straight line speed kind of guy.  He was also injury prone in college (tore his ACL) so the injury issues in the NFL shouldn't have surprised anyone.  Lamar Jackson is the complete opposite.  Even with all that production he had on the ground in college he's been remarkably durable. 

And unlike RG3 who seemed to lack awareness of incoming tacklers and who did not know how to get on the ground and avoid contact, Lamar has an amazing ability to feel contact coming and either cause the guy to completely whiff or to fall in a way to avoid a big hit and possible injury.  I trust Lamar Jackson to stay healthy in the NFL while being a dynamic athlete way more than RG3.

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14 minutes ago, VanS said:

That's not a bad thing.  Everyone and their mama loved rookie season RG3 when he was healthy.  The problems started for RG3 after he got hurt.  And kept getting hurt. 

I think the problem started when it became apparent that he wasn't a great quarterback throwing the football without a lot of help. And couldn't diagnose defenses, or go through progressions. 

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26 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think the problem started when it became apparent that he wasn't a great quarterback throwing the football without a lot of help. And couldn't diagnose defenses, or go through progressions. 

 

Which Lamar actually does

Lamar is really going to surprise people. I'm not picking him over Darnold but if Darnold isn't there hed be in the discussion 

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1 hour ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

 

- Criminally underrated passer

Man, you're racist.

 

I like Lamar Jackson a lot, but he's not not refined enough to go in the top 5. He and Mayfield both come from quirky schemes that will hinder their NFL games in the short term. There are almost zero pro style concepts in Oklahoma's or Louisville's offenses. And the reason Baker is higher than Lamar right now is because of the accuracy. Mayfield has laser accuracy. Jackson is spotty at best. His most accurate throws are deep down the seam. He struggles to hit outside of the numbers accurately at any range.

It was said that he could do a lot of short-term damage. I disagree and think anything he would do would be long-term. He's going to struggle big-time facing tight window man coverage with teams blitzing the heck out of him. Luckily he has the arm talent and size to develop into a good pocket passer, but that's not at all what he is right now. He's going to need a major face lift in terms of how he wins in the NFL. I'm a Lamar Jackson fan and believe that he has the upside to be the best QB in the NFL, but he's so far away from that right now. When there are polished QB's like Darnold and Rosen sitting at the top of the draft, why take the project? I'd be all for it if Darnold and Rosen didn't have great upside, but they aren't exactly a pair of Colt McCoy's.

@VanS I fear you are becoming the hot take master. Most of the things you say are very against the grain.

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29 minutes ago, brownie man said:

Which Lamar actually does

Lamar is really going to surprise people. I'm not picking him over Darnold but if Darnold isn't there hed be in the discussion 

Lamar Jackson does read the field and go through progressions, but he doesn't throw any pro style concepts and struggles to be accurate. He has tried to become more of a pocket passer this year. There were times where he could have taken off and gotten 1st downs with ease, but this year he's making the concerted effort to try and play pocket QB. He wasn't TERRIBLE at it, but his accuracy is still bad outside of the numbers.

He isn't Cam Newton at Auburn who literally had 1 read and then was told to run if it wasn't there. Jackson will scan just fine, but everything is off of play action and against vanilla zones. He rarely sees man coverage with a heavy blitz attached, which is what 85% of the NFL is. I have a hard time seeing him take a 3 step drop and rifling slant/curls/digs to WR's against man coverage. His college success was basically all running or throwing it down the seams to his big TE or his speedy WR's.

I'd bet on him going in the 1st round, but he's not going to catch up to the guys in front of him right now (Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield). And I don't really like Josh Allen all that much, but it sounds like Allen will go before Jackson. I'd probably take Jackson over Allen. Both have bad accuracy, but Jackson has a little more potential despite not having as much polish as Allen (pro-style scheme).

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1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

Man, you're racist.

 

I like Lamar Jackson a lot, but he's not not refined enough to go in the top 5. He and Mayfield both come from quirky schemes that will hinder their NFL games in the short term. There are almost zero pro style concepts in Oklahoma's or Louisville's offenses. And the reason Baker is higher than Lamar right now is because of the accuracy. Mayfield has laser accuracy. Jackson is spotty at best. His most accurate throws are deep down the seam. He struggles to hit outside of the numbers accurately at any range.

It was said that he could do a lot of short-term damage. I disagree and think anything he would do would be long-term. He's going to struggle big-time facing tight window man coverage with teams blitzing the heck out of him. Luckily he has the arm talent and size to develop into a good pocket passer, but that's not at all what he is right now. He's going to need a major face lift in terms of how he wins in the NFL. I'm a Lamar Jackson fan and believe that he has the upside to be the best QB in the NFL, but he's so far away from that right now. When there are polished QB's like Darnold and Rosen sitting at the top of the draft, why take the project? I'd be all for it if Darnold and Rosen didn't have great upside, but they aren't exactly a pair of Colt McCoy's.

@VanS I fear you are becoming the hot take master. Most of the things you say are very against the grain.

Playing man against Lamar Jackson will be suicide.  He's gonna run all over those teams.

And with regard to the hot take allegation, I won''t fight it.  I do say things that go against the grain.  But that's only because I believe in them.  I don't just say stuff I don't believe in just to get shock value.  I'm just unafraid to say what I believe even if most think its crazy.

Just go and look back at previous drafts.  Going with the consensus regarding who should be the top prospects isn't exactly the path to take if you wanna be right.  The consensus is typically wrong.  Which is why the 1st round of most drafts is filled with busts 50% of the time.  Going against the consensus is actually the smart move if you wanna be right.  And I want to be right in my evaluations, so I'm just gonna go with what I believe not with what everyone else is saying is true regarding a player.  If I'm wrong, then so be it.  I'd rather be wrong for my own opinions rather than being wrong because I agreed with everyone else.

 

Edited by VanS

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Just now, VanS said:

Playing man against Lamar Jackson will be suicide.  He's gonna run all over those teams.

And with to the hot take allegation, I won''t find it.  I do say things that go against the grain.  But that's only because I believe in them.  I don't just say stuff I don't believe in just to get shock value.  I'm just unafraid to say what I believe even if most think its crazy.

Just go and look back at previous drafts.  Going with the consensus isn't exactly that path to take if you wanna be right.  I want to be right in my evaluations so I'm just gonna go with what I see.  If I'm wrong, then so be it.  I'd rather be wrong for my own opinions rather than be wrong because I agreed with everyone else.

You know what you do to mobile QB's like Lamar Jackson? You plan man coverage and blitz his throwing arm side. Then you have a DE sit on the backside with a muddled rush and just wait for him to come to you. Boom! Success. It's how teams shut Michael Vick's legs down. Pretty simple stuff. Nobody in college has the horses to run press man across the board which is why you don't see it at that level. NFL teams do.

 

Fair enough with your evaluations. I disagree, but what do you or I really know. NFL GM's do this for a living and fail 50% of the time.

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2 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

You know what you do to mobile QB's like Lamar Jackson? You plan man coverage and blitz his throwing arm side. Then you have a DE sit on the backside with a muddled rush and just wait for him to come to you. Boom! Success. It's how teams shut Michael Vick's legs down. Pretty simple stuff. Nobody in college has the horses to run press man across the board which is why you don't see it at that level. NFL teams do.

Fair enough with your evaluations. I disagree, but what do you or I really know. NFL GM's do this for a living and fail 50% of the time.

I'm not sure people have the horses in the NFL to keep up with Lamar Jackson either.  As I said in my OP, people are seriously underrating this guys athleticism.  Its other-worldly.  And if anything, I would argue college football teams are schematically more set up to stop running QBs like Lamar Jackson more than the NFL teams.  Why?  Because NFL teams don't see spread running QBs as often as college teams do.  Remember after the 2012 season when RG3, Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson ripped apart the league with read-option you had NFL defensive coordinators going to college coaches trying to figure out how to stop the read-option. 

Lamar Jackson is a special athlete.  The NFL will figure his legs out to a degree but not early on.  He will wreck havoc next season because nobody has seen anyone like him in the league since Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick.  Its gonna take awhile for teams to get used to his speed and athleticism.  And the thing that makes him special isn't his speed.  Its his elusiveness.  He's almost Barry Sanders-esque as a runner when it comes to making people miss.  And unlike most running QBs, I'm not afraid of him getting hurt.  He has that uncanny ability to avoid big hits like Russell Wilson.

Lamar Jackson the runner will be very difficult for NFL teams to stop.  VERY DIFFICULT. 

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