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2018 NFL Combine (measurements in OP)


goldfishwars

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5 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

4.11 short shuttle too.

Holy hell batman.  The 0.4+ sec gap suggests there's a lot of quicks hidden in his profile to get open.   This really, really helps him.

Normally tape rules all in the end when evaluating guys, but the WR class is so closely stacked together after Ridley, the Combine is going to be given more weight.  I'd have said DJ Moore is going #2 with any decent interview and Pro Day, but Sutton's short-area excellence really saves his day (not that 4.5+ at his size is anything to sniff at, but Moore and Chark just killed it before the 3-cone/shuttle, while Sutton didn't hurt stock but didn't stand out...until now).

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So, after it's all said and done, the top 4 QB's (minus Lamar) all profile similar athletically speaking, with Allen always a hair (or more) better, except in the shuttle:

40

Allen 4.75, Mayfield 4.84, Darnold 4.85, Rosen 4.90

20-yd shuttle

Mayfield/Rosen 4.28, Allen/Darnold 4.40

3-cone

Allen 6.90, Darnold 6.96, Mayfield 7.00, Rosen 7.09

Vert

Allen 33.5, Rosen 31, Mayfield 29, Darnold 26.5

Broad

Allen 9'11, Rosen/Mayfield 9'3, Darnold 8'9

 

Now, vert and broad and probably less important (unless you are trying to somehow figuring out how much they can bowl guys over with power on QB sneaks, maybe shake guys with a partial grasp, but that's a bit of a stretch).   But no doubt those who love Allen will point to how athletically, he's clearly the best of the bunch.  And yeah, he's got the arm strength no one can match for sure.

Throwing-wise, obviously Darnold didn't throw, so can't add much - I will say Allen had a few misfires, but not many, while Rosen and Mayfield threw really, really well.  It's also clear he can throw with the most velo, and his cannon range is ridiculous.   Lamar threw very well as well, didn't miss a beat alongside the others.   Now, the problem is of course is that there was no pressure, or tight windows to throw into, these are the easiest throws to make.   No read progression, or D reading, or even the same level of anticipation needed.  But no major flags came up that weren't already known.

What I do think we will see draft stock wise - more helium for Allen, as coaches who believe will say he's showing progress.  And I do think if there was any weight given to Mayfield for being a more mobile and elusive QB, it gets negated.   

Given Lamar didn't do the drills, I don't see that he changed his stock.   The confirmation that physically, Mayfield isn't faster or more elusive than his peers, I think he's going to stay #4 QB overall, barring major interview/injuries/off-the-field issues that pop up with Rosen/Darnold/Allen.   The big Q to me is where Allen fits - the highest ceiling is his for sure, but it's also the lowest floor, by far.   Just my 2 cents, obviously as a DEN fan I'm very invested in this, but even I can't say how Elway ranks them (although I'd bet Mayfield-Lamar are a clear 4-5, given how he falls for the classic tall, pocket-passer model).

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6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The confirmation that physically, Mayfield isn't faster or more elusive than his peers, I think he's going to stay #4 QB overall, barring major interview/injuries/off-the-field issues that pop up with Rosen/Darnold/Allen.   The big Q to me is where Allen fits - the highest ceiling is his for sure, but it's also the lowest floor, by far.   Just my 2 cents, obviously as a DEN fan I'm very invested in this, but even I can't say how Elway ranks them (although I'd bet Mayfield-Lamar are a clear 4-5, given how he falls for the classic tall, pocket-passer model).

Mayfield is more elusive than his peers. It's pretty easy to see on tape.

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7 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Mayfield is more elusive than his peers. It's pretty easy to see on tape.

My bad - should have said "he's not more elusive physically - pocket awareness, vision, etc. would explain his college success there".  The Q is whether the non-physical reasons for his college elusiveness are enough of a difference with the bump in physical talent on D to translate again once he gets to the NFL.   If he was more elusive because of physical elite-level shiftiness, then I'd feel safer about projecting it stays with the bump in talent on D he will face.   

But yes, fair point.

EDIT:  I see I did say "physically" before....but either way, point's not clear.

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4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

My bad - should have said "he's not more elusive physically - pocket awareness, vision, etc. would explain his college success there".  The Q is whether the non-physical reasons for his college elusiveness are enough of a difference with the bump in physical talent on D once we get to the NFL.   If he was more elusive because of physical elite-level shiftiness, then I'd feel safer about projecting it stays with the bump in talent on D he will face.   

But yes, fair point.

EDIT:  I see I did say "physically" before....but either way, point's not clear.

The reasons are physical. But that doesn't necessarily mean they'll show in Combine drills. Look at Alvin Kamara. His short shuttle and three cone drill times are pedestrian.(They're actually worse than Mayfield's)

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Just now, jrry32 said:

The reasons are physical. But that doesn't necessarily mean they'll show in Combine drills. Look at Alvin Kamara. His short shuttle and three cone drill times are pedestrian.

Re: Kamara, agreed, his main trait no one saw coming is his insane balance.   Which as you said, the Combine doesn't evaluate.    Maybe that's the case that whatever the reason, it translates to the NFL with Mayfield, even if it's not measurable.   But it's also possible that it doesn't, given the bump in competition that he'll face.   I expect without something more tangible to hang their hats on, the GM's will rank him the same way accordingly.

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18 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Re: Kamara, agreed, his main trait no one saw coming is his insane balance.   Which as you said, the Combine doesn't evaluate.    Maybe that's the case that whatever the reason, it translates to the NFL with Mayfield, even if it's not measurable.   But it's also possible that it doesn't, given the bump in competition that he'll face.   I expect without something more tangible to hang their hats on, the GM's will rank him the same way accordingly.

But there is something more tangible, it's on film. Mayfield has a low center of gravity and great balance. That's what makes him so shifty, elusive, and slippery (along with his good agility as evidence by the shuttle and the 3CD).

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11 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

But there is something more tangible, it's on film. Mayfield has a low center of gravity and great balance. That's what makes him so shifty, elusive, and slippery (along with his good agility as evidence by the shuttle and the 3CD).

The good agility though isn't any different than his peer group, so the difference that you see as tangible, isn't directly measurable or, more importantly, necessarily translatable to the same level of success in this trait when he plays in the NFL.  Will he be just as elusive with better competition?  More elusive than Rosen/Darnold, certainly, but enough to be significant?   Obviously, it's a fallacy to let the Combine dictate all, but it's easier when there's something definable to predict success.    FWIW, this same issue is why Watson got downgraded in projecting his NFL success - certainly I (like almost everyone) was guilty on this count.  But for every Watson whose unmeasurables overcame the profile that predicted he couldn't keep the same level of success moving up to the NFL, there are so many more where the profile raising flags is proven correct.   Thus the split on guys like Mayfield, which I guess I'm saying I get.

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