2017 College Football / Scouting

[Jag68Sid87]

I am all aboard the Lamar Jackson train, too. Draft him 10th overall and sign a vet if you need someone else for a year. Trade Hackenberg for a seventh, who cares.

[Bobby816]

22 minutes ago, Jag68Sid87 said:

I am all aboard the Lamar Jackson train, too. Draft him 10th overall and sign a vet if you need someone else for a year. Trade Hackenberg for a seventh, who cares.

I see our QB situation as one of these next season.

Kirk Cousins is signed, problem solved for 5+ years or so.

We draft a QB high and bring back McCown. I think Rosen is a lock to go #1. Maybe we can entice a team in a trade up for Darnold (I'm not for this mainly bc I don't think Darnold is trade up worthy). We draft one of Jackson, Mayfield or Allen at 10. We trade back and draft one. Or we draft another position at 10 and trade back up into Round 1 to draft 1 of them. If this is the case Petty is gone and we will roll with McCown, Hack and rookie.

Teddy Bridgewater is signed. Some questions go along with this signing bc the lack of seeing him play this season. McCown might still be brought back if we signed Teddy we could still even look to target a QB in the draft. I doubt at 10 though after probably having to drop over 15mill for Teddy.

[ekill08x]

32 minutes ago, MoLewis57 said:

I fully expect that. 

I like him too. For all the reasons you mentioned. I think he is a bit bigger than Robby tho

LOL yeah probably, Robby could hide behind dental floss, however, that boy doesn't let his tiny little frame hinder him, hes still tough as nails. I love Robby Anderson. 

I think Lamar Jackson will weigh in around 215-220 at the combine, which isn't terrible. If he can maintain that athleticism and get up to 225, he is going to be a superstar. 

[Bobby816]

4 minutes ago, ekill08x said:

LOL yeah probably, Robby could hide behind dental floss, however, that boy doesn't let his tiny little frame hinder him, hes still tough as nails. I love Robby Anderson. 

I think Lamar Jackson will weigh in around 215-220 at the combine, which isn't terrible. If he can maintain that athleticism and get up to 225, he is going to be a superstar. 

I'm gonna have to see him throw at pro days and all to buy in on Jackson. If he impresses me during the pre draft process he's a guy I'd be ok with at 10. If he's like what I see in games at Louisville than I'm still not sold on him at 10.

[rickyt31]

If we can pull in Lamar Jackson, I can see us bringing in McCown or one of the Vikings QB options if McCown retire. I have to give McCown his props, he did great for a team with a Hot seat coach, New System, no true rushing attack, and Targets that are adapting to being the #1 targets.  Lamar would get the chance to learn from a QB who has a good understanding of the system.

 

 

 

[rickyt31]

At the same time, signing Cousins and picking Williams or McGlinchey would be nice.

[Bobby816]

I wanna give a breakdown of Lamar Jackson IMO. I'll start by saying he's the 3rd QB on my board. If and that's a big If, he can show he can throw at a high level in workouts and all during the pre draft process, he will be a player I'll like for us to get at 10. But as it stands now with the way I view his skill set, I think he's a huge risk at 10. And here's why.

 

Here's a breakdown of him that I'm sure a lot of you don't know. He's taken just shy of 1,700 snaps while at Louisville. He's ran the ball around 35-40% of those snaps. And you might say well when he was younger in his career he ran more. While that's true his numbers still average to around 35% recently. That does not even come close to working in the NFL. His completion percentage is right at 60% this season, and his 2 previous seasons were 56% and 54%. Now while that looks to not be awful, I think it is. For a guy that creates so much with his legs, he has bigger lanes to throw in. An accurate QB should be able to complete more than an average of 57% of his throws with those lanes. For comparison Cam and Mariota threw 67% while in college. Mariota ran quite a bit less than Jackson while Cam ran about the same in his only season (Cam is also 2" taller and 40lbs heavier).

 

Jackson is a huge project. He's always going to want to run. But with a smaller frame (weight wise not height) his injury risk will be big. His ability to be accurate is an issue until he can show otherwise. He very well might throw great in the pocket without moving much, but that really hasn't been seen in his college career. He can be RG3 or he can be Dak (who I think is overrated). Time will tell.

[rdelaney89]

32 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I wanna give a breakdown of Lamar Jackson IMO. I'll start by saying he's the 3rd QB on my board. If and that's a big If, he can show he can throw at a high level in workouts and all during the pre draft process, he will be a player I'll like for us to get at 10. But as it stands now with the way I view his skill set, I think he's a huge risk at 10. And here's why.

 

Here's a breakdown of him that I'm sure a lot of you don't know. He's taken just shy of 1,700 snaps while at Louisville. He's ran the ball around 35-40% of those snaps. And you might say well when he was younger in his career he ran more. While that's true his numbers still average to around 35% recently. That does not even come close to working in the NFL. His completion percentage is right at 60% this season, and his 2 previous seasons were 56% and 54%. Now while that looks to not be awful, I think it is. For a guy that creates so much with his legs, he has bigger lanes to throw in. An accurate QB should be able to complete more than an average of 57% of his throws with those lanes. For comparison Cam and Mariota threw 67% while in college. Mariota ran quite a bit less than Jackson while Cam ran about the same in his only season (Cam is also 2" taller and 40lbs heavier).

 

Jackson is a huge project. He's always going to want to run. But with a smaller frame (weight wise not height) his injury risk will be big. His ability to be accurate is an issue until he can show otherwise. He very well might throw great in the pocket without moving much, but that really hasn't been seen in his college career. He can be RG3 or he can be Dak (who I think is overrated). Time will tell.

It's important to realize the gamble a team is taking when drafting Jackson to add to what you already have he actually has more rushes than completions, not sure we've ever seen that.

Career rush attempts vs. pass completions: 630 at 6.9 per vs. 606 at 8.4 per.  

His rushing attempts were:

2015 -163

2016 - 260

2017 - 208

by comparison RG3 who is probably the closest recent comparison to Jackson went:

2008 -173

2010 -149

2011 -179

 

RG3's Career completion percentage: 67.1%.

Jackson's Career completion percentage: 57.4%.

- Jackson's current completion percentage of 60.4% (highest of his career) would rank him 53rd in the country.

[K-Ro 25]

10 minutes ago, rdelaney89 said:

It's important to realize the gamble a team is taking when drafting Jackson to add to what you already have he actually has more rushes than completions, not sure we've ever seen that.

Career rush attempts vs. pass completions: 630 at 6.9 per vs. 606 at 8.4 per.  

His rushing attempts were:

2015 -163

2016 - 260

2017 - 208

by comparison RG3 who is probably the closest recent comparison to Jackson went:

2008 -173

2010 -149

2011 -179

 

RG3's Career completion percentage: 67.1%.

Jackson's Career completion percentage: 57.4%.

- Jackson's current completion percentage of 60.4% (highest of his career) would rank him 53rd in the country.

Lamar Jackson had highest drop % by his receivers in all of Division 1.. stats are skewed.

[rickyt31]

When I watched LJ, I had to watch him when he wasn't told to run. If they were winning with his legs, would be stupid for the coach to force him to throw. So I only paid attention to his passing situations.When things broke down, he does a pretty good job of keeping his eyes down field. I've even seen him scan the field to find open targets. But because he was so good at running, he ran when the opportunity was there. Pretty much like Vick did at VT. I haven't locked him in as my #1 target, but I like him.

[rdelaney89]

34 minutes ago, K-Ro 25 said:

Lamar Jackson had highest drop % by his receivers in all of Division 1.. stats are skewed.

I remember hearing that do you happen to have a link, I tried finding data for that.

[Bobby816]

9 hours ago, K-Ro 25 said:

Lamar Jackson had highest drop % by his receivers in all of Division 1.. stats are skewed.

His drop percentage has nothing to do that he opts to run the ball over 35% of his snaps. That doesn’t fly in the NFL. His drop percentage only skews his completion percentage. Which isn’t good. But if you watch a lot of Louisville games, these passes a lot of the times that they’re calling “drops” aren’t spot on throws. Just bc it hits the WRs hands doesn’t make it a drop like a stat sheet will show you. It was a poor pass that was perhaps catchable. Still a poor pass though. And back to my original point. With the way he creates with his legs, his receivers are quite a bit more open than they’ll be in the NFL, so to have accuracy issues with more open receivers in college is worrisome for the next level.

What he doesn’t have that positive is arm strength issues. He has plenty of zip on the ball to make throws. He just has to get more accurate and learn to stay in the pocket a lot more. He may show these things in workouts, so it’s not a done deal that he’s not capable of doing.

[KimuraGod]

I want Lamar Jackson but as stated by a few different people I’m cool with upgrading the o-line in rounds 1&2 and signing Cousins.

LJ is still my number one choice though

[Rockice_8]

15 hours ago, ekill08x said:

Honestly you're right. Would save Macs job.

I've honestly started feeling the same. I misjudged him. He is a shy kid, but my god is he humble and does he seem like he loves football. The more I researched that kid the more I love him. I also dont think he will have a problem with this offense. He can throw the ball and he has very solid mechanics. My biggest issue with him is the injury risk. He is Robby Anderson thin. I am excited to see him at the combine and his pro day. Is he expected to run a 4.3?

Kid is only 20 still not even close to his prime.  In another 2 years he could be 6'2"-6'3" and 220 which is plenty big.  Add to the fact that he has shown improvement in his passing, the willingness to work hard, and the God given freak ability when put all together you have a potential franchise QB. 

I could easily see him running in the high 4.3's low 4.4's.

Jackson is not a typical QB so you have a adjust to his skills to maximize his ability but I think Morton can and will.  I think you have a slightly better version of Vick as I think Jackson is already ahead in terms of his passing ability already and right there with his legs.  If he is Vick with his legs with better passing then he is going to be special.

We could pair Jackson with a homerun hitter like Ronald Jones III in round 3 and immediately have a tough offense just with the run pass option those two combined would form.  Add in an improved OL, the return of Q and improvement from ASJ in year 2 in the system and we can be BUF from a few years back when they lead the league in rushing with Tyrod/Shady and Watkins taking the top off the defense.  If the D wants to spy Jackson and stop the run pass option then we have an elite deep threat in Robby to take the top off.  It's scary to think how good they could be.  

 

[SDotNova]

This is where PFF stats are helpful. They adjust their completion percentage for drops and throwaways. Below are the adjusted stats for the 2017 season. When you adjust for drops and throwaways, Jackson's completion percentage is on par with the other QBs. Also note that he gets pressured at a higher rate than the other QBs and his CMP% holds in those situation. Looking at stats, the red flags I see are really with Darnold, Allen and Stidham. Their completion percentages are materially lower when under pressure or drops under 60%. 

	ATT	ADJ %		Pressure %	ATT UP	ADJ % UP
Rosen	453	74.4		29.7	113	68.8
Darnold	414	70.6		25.8	91	59.7
Jackson	400	73.1		34.4	107	66.3
Mayfield	348	82.6		25.4	71	70.0
Allen	252	65.7		39.0	84	52.2
Falk	535	74.7		25.8	106	65.9
Stidham	296	76.6		29.5	65	57.4

 

The key is to couple stats with film review. Are these QBs able to hit their receives on the numbers in stride? Even adjusted completion percentage don't tell the whole story. Look at Petty, even those completions that he had last Sunday were terrible. Anderson made a couple of shoestring catches.

 

As of now, my QB bigboard is Rosen > Mayfield > Jackson > Darnold > Falk > Rudolph. Rosen is the only player I would be happy with us trading up for.