Josh Allen

[Nastradamus]

Highest off target pass % last 3 draft classes

Josh Allen -16.3%

Kizer  14.5%

Driskel - 14.4%

Cook - 13.5%

Hackenberg - 13.4%

How is that not concerning lol. 

 

Also if you haven't seen the 3rd down conversion stats from the Rosen thread I'd suggest heading there immediately or I can link the exact page

 

[Nastradamus]

So admittedly he isn't as accurate as Hack, but still...

[Nastradamus]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

I don't like the Lynch comparison. Never have. The only similar thing I see to them is their body build. Lynch actually was far behind Allen with regards to the mental part of the game in my opinion, then you also have the part where it just doesn't seem like he cares and has no interest in trying to improve. 

I don't hate the Osweiler comp, they suffer some similar issues, but Allen's traits are a little better I'd argue.

Kyle Boller...again, big arm, accuracy issues, but I don't think that enough people fully remember / saw Boller enough in college to make that comp. I feel like this comparison lives and dies on the black and white numbers and the fact that Boller had a huge arm. 

I was into the draft during the Boller draft. Not saying I was an expert, but it ain't out of my *** either. I was 19

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Nastradamus said:

I was into the draft during the Boller draft. Not saying I was an expert, but it ain't out of my *** either. I was 19

OT, but we are old (I was 22 during that draft) 

[Rockice_8]

17 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

community college and hs numbers? I'll just watch the college tape that shows me he has what it takes to play in the NFL. I'm not arguing that he's the most accurate guy in the world. It's certainly inconsistent and bleh overall, but the completion percentage thing has been beaten to death and there's a reason those numbers are so much lower than everyone elses. Some of it is his own fault, but most of it is the fact that he's playing with future special olympic competitors and is in an offense that asks him to throw moonballs off of play action. There aren't easy completions built into that offense at all. 90% of college offenses nowadays run a bevvy of underneath stuff...layups for QB's. Allen isn't afforded those same kinds of throws for cheap % points.

I'm not worried about Allen. I prefer Darnold at #1 for sure, but I wouldn't shed a tear if it's Allen at #1.

Didn't he have the highest attempt % of throws at or behind the LOS of the top QB and yet he still had a horrible comp %?

This idea that all he did was throw "moonballs" is way too far from reality.

[BleedTheClock]

8 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Well he had a below average rating under pressure. 

I get this, but there's reasons for it. I'd like for you, time-permitting, of course, to find a game tape that shows me Allen under pressure where he misses guys that are open consistently. Or find me a tape where guys are just getting open, regardless of pressure. He had the worst cast of characters around him that I've ever seen a top QB prospect have. To act like this is not tied in to his sub-par statistics is an oversight.

Do you think the other 3 QB's would have done better at Wyoming? I honestly don't think they would. I think we'd be talking about the same sub-par statistics. If you put Allen at Oklahoma and Mayfield at Wyoming, the accuracy #'s for Allen aren't even a thing whereas Baker would be having his accuracy questioned. I really do believe that.

Allen needs to speed up his decision making and settle himself mechanically on a consistent basis to become a great QB in the NFL. He doesn't anticipate throws right now, but that is something that comes with time and trust in the players around you. Can anyone blame Allen for not trusting Slapdick Joe and Handicapable Jim running routes out there for him? Allen is certainly not a flawless QB prospect, but this isn't your run-of-the-mill big QB with a plus arm. He's got an embarrassment of riches in terms of physical tools, he's a great leader, he plays in a pro style offense and makes pro style reads, and despite your claim, I think a strength of his is how well he works within the pocket when there's pressure. He throws almost more accurately when he's on the run and having to climb the pocket to avoid the edge rush.

 

I keep watching more game tape of Allen trying to understand the hate, but I leave more impressed with him than I did before watching the tape looking for flaws.

[Da_Ducktator]

Just now, Nastradamus said:

ALlen is Paxton Lynch, Brock OSweiler and Kyle Boller. We've seen this story. 

These comparisons (throw in Hackenberg too) are the funniest because they are the laziest. "What recent busts can I compare the guy I think is going to be a bust that some label as a potential 'next big thing'? All of the worst ones even if there are glaring differences!!!"

Christian Hackenberg had no sense of pressure and was too scared to even use his overrated arm once he lost Allen Robinson.

Paxton Lynch is noted as being lazy with a poor work ethic and just completely lost in an NFL offense.

Brock Osweiler is a literal statue.

Kyle Boller is the closest in this group, and there is still differences. For some reason, people keep blindly throwing Boller out there and I feel like nobody has ever watched him play if you compared him to Allen. Allen actually has really smooth mechanics in his upper body. It's why his freakish arm talent is able to consistently show up, even when he is missing targets. Boller practically pushed the ball out of his hands. It was a quick release but a very different motion. Add-on that Boller probably had next to zero NFL schematics under Tedford (Aaron Rodgers sat for years in part due to grooming him up on the mental side).

Allen is an uber physical talent across the board, arm talent and athletically. So, throw out the Osweiler and Hackenberg comps there. He is noted as being a bright young man who is an excellent team leader and willing to work hard and sacrifice himself for his team, so get rid of the Lynch comparisons. Allen plays in a pro-style scheme with solid upper body mechanics, so toss out the Boller comparisons.

For all the blasting people want to do of Allen and bring up only the bad in terms of previous big armed, project quarterbacks, you all like to just conveniently forget about guys like Daunte Culpepper (Allen arguably more polished coming out and if you compare their stats as Jr and Soph, pretty similar. Culpepper elevated due to a superb senior season), Colin Kaepernick (Allen is cleaner motion-wise and less of a runner, but the physical tools and required fixing of lower body are similar), and Aaron Brooks (certainly not as successful as the previous two, but similar bodies and arm talent to Josh Allen as well as struggles in college).

I get it; the stats weren't great. There are a lot of factors to blame, both on Allen and surrounding talent. But holy crap the way some of you hate on him. It is absolutely ridiculous to me that a guy with the absolute insane raw talent that he has, that 20.5% of you say you wouldn't take him within the top two rounds. Asinine. Anybody who believes that I would venture to guess they clearly have never played or coached in the game of football. I understand not wanting to take him in the 1st round, that's my personal stance. But the 2nd round is an ideal place to take a chance on a guy like him and see if you can groom him into the starter, as was done with Kaepernick and DeShone Kizer. You add-on that this kid clearly has a strong work ethic, he isn't some a-hole getting arrested for drunken disorderly or a guy sitting out bowl games despite the fact he had a shoulder injury. Guys like Allen you take a chance on if you believe in him and your coaching staff.

/rant

[BleedTheClock]

4 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Didn't he have the highest attempt % of throws at or behind the LOS of the top QB and yet he still had a horrible comp %?

This idea that all he did was throw "moonballs" is way too far from reality.

I don't have the stat to back it up, but based on watching CFB, no. Darnold had a lot of slip screens built in to his offense and Mayfield's Oklahoma offense was riddled with quick passes and screeno's.

[Rockice_8]

Just now, BleedTheClock said:

I don't have the stat to back it up, but based on watching CFB, no. Darnold had a lot of slip screens built in to his offense and Mayfield's Oklahoma offense was riddled with quick passes and screeno's.

It is a fact though.  I'll see if I can find the article.

[Nastradamus]

2 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

These comparisons (throw in Hackenberg too) are the funniest because they are the laziest. "What recent busts can I compare the guy I think is going to be a bust that some label as a potential 'next big thing'? All of the worst ones even if there are glaring differences!!!"

Christian Hackenberg had no sense of pressure and was too scared to even use his overrated arm once he lost Allen Robinson.

Paxton Lynch is noted as being lazy with a poor work ethic and just completely lost in an NFL offense.

Brock Osweiler is a literal statue.

Kyle Boller is the closest in this group, and there is still differences. For some reason, people keep blindly throwing Boller out there and I feel like nobody has ever watched him play if you compared him to Allen. Allen actually has really smooth mechanics in his upper body. It's why his freakish arm talent is able to consistently show up, even when he is missing targets. Boller practically pushed the ball out of his hands. It was a quick release but a very different motion. Add-on that Boller probably had next to zero NFL schematics under Tedford (Aaron Rodgers sat for years in part due to grooming him up on the mental side).

Allen is an uber physical talent across the board, arm talent and athletically. So, throw out the Osweiler and Hackenberg comps there. He is noted as being a bright young man who is an excellent team leader and willing to work hard and sacrifice himself for his team, so get rid of the Lynch comparisons. Allen plays in a pro-style scheme with solid upper body mechanics, so toss out the Boller comparisons.

For all the blasting people want to do of Allen and bring up only the bad in terms of previous big armed, project quarterbacks, you all like to just conveniently forget about guys like Daunte Culpepper (Allen arguably more polished coming out and if you compare their stats as Jr and Soph, pretty similar. Culpepper elevated due to a superb senior season), Colin Kaepernick (Allen is cleaner motion-wise and less of a runner, but the physical tools and required fixing of lower body are similar), and Aaron Brooks (certainly not as successful as the previous two, but similar bodies and arm talent to Josh Allen as well as struggles in college).

I get it; the stats weren't great. There are a lot of factors to blame, both on Allen and surrounding talent. But holy crap the way some of you hate on him. It is absolutely ridiculous to me that a guy with the absolute insane raw talent that he has, that 20.5% of you say you wouldn't take him within the top two rounds. Asinine. Anybody who believes that I would venture to guess they clearly have never played or coached in the game of football. I understand not wanting to take him in the 1st round, that's my personal stance. But the 2nd round is an ideal place to take a chance on a guy like him and see if you can groom him into the starter, as was done with Kaepernick and DeShone Kizer. You add-on that this kid clearly has a strong work ethic, he isn't some a-hole getting arrested for drunken disorderly or a guy sitting out bowl games despite the fact he had a shoulder injury. Guys like Allen you take a chance on if you believe in him and your coaching staff.

/rant

I think its pretty easy to see the common theme of poor accuracy, which almost always fails in the NFL, in contrast to impressive physical skills, particularly arm strength. 

I just don't see any argument for taking an inaccurate QB high in the draft. If you have one, I'm all ears. 

 

[BleedTheClock]

3 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

But holy crap the way some of you hate on him. It is absolutely ridiculous to me that a guy with the absolute insane raw talent that he has, that 20.5% of you say you wouldn't take him within the top two rounds. Asinine. Anybody who believes that I would venture to guess they clearly have never played or coached in the game of football.

Yup. Exactly this.

 

Allen has a pretty low floor because of his accuracy and processing speed, but he didn't have much of a chance to put those things on display in college. People see a low floor and think "BUST!" They want so badly to be able to say, "see, I told you Josh Allen sucks!" that they'll say ridiculous things like he's a 3rd-7th round pick. There is no basis for that garbage other than immaturity and/or a lack of knowledge.

[BleedTheClock]

2 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

I just don't see any argument for taking an inaccurate QB high in the draft. If you have one, I'm all ears.

Cam Newton.

Matthew Stafford.

Matt Ryan.

& too early to really tell, but Deshaun Watson.

 

All 4 of those guys struggled with accuracy in college. Those are 4 pro bowl QB's. And Josh Allen has more raw arm talent than all of them.

It's definitely a risk to take Allen so high in the draft, but let's not act like no QB ever rebounded from being inaccurate in college before.

[Mox]

I'll happily admit I wouldn't draft him until the third. I don't care how high your ceiling is if your capacity to reach it is (in my opinion) extraordinarily low.

[Nastradamus]

Just now, BleedTheClock said:

Cam Newton.

Matthew Stafford.

Matt Ryan.

& too early to really tell, but Deshaun Watson.

 

All 4 of those guys struggled with accuracy in college. Those are 4 pro bowl QB's. And Josh Allen has more raw arm talent than all of them.

It's definitely a risk to take Allen so high in the draft, but let's not act like no QB ever rebounded from being inaccurate in college before.

Those are completely unfair comps in every way. Stafford and Ryan simply weren't as inaccurate coming out on tape as Allen and Cam and Watson have their running game.  Allen isn't going to rush for 500 + yards for you, yeesh.  

[Nastradamus]

4 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Yup. Exactly this.

 

Allen has a pretty low floor because of his accuracy and processing speed, but he didn't have much of a chance to put those things on display in college. People see a low floor and think "BUST!" They want so badly to be able to say, "see, I told you Josh Allen sucks!" that they'll say ridiculous things like he's a 3rd-7th round pick. There is no basis for that garbage other than immaturity and/or a lack of knowledge.

Very infrequently does a QB become a completely different QB than he was in college, that is the point. Josh Allen on tape looks like Deshone Kizer playing for Wyoming