Josh Allen

[Scout]

29 minutes ago, Forge said:

Honestly, I think that is already built in to the criticism of his accuracy and overall decision making. 

Sorry I haven't read most of the pages in this thread. Mostly talking about the media.

[mission27]

Gotta come in here and drop my 2 cents. 

I've actually heard from sources that Josh Allen is pretty stupid.  I know... thats a little surprising since he did so well on Wunderlick.  Just something I've heard. 

Generally the MoL approves.  Big cs, big arm.

[vikestyle]

4 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Gotta come in here and drop my 2 cents. 

I've actually heard from sources that Josh Allen is pretty stupid.  I know... thats a little surprising since he did so well on Wunderlick.  Just something I've heard. 

Generally the MoL approves.  Big cs, big arm.

Lol

[VanS]

15 hours ago, Scout said:

Wyoming was also #23 in yards per game and #11 on D.

 

Josh Allen supporters get at me. 

Wyoming also lost to San Jose State last year without Josh Allen.  A team that was 2-11 on the season with its only other win coming against Cal-Poly (a FCS team).

[VanS]

13 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

In contrast to that if you say they look the part on film and they don't pan out it's easy to throw out excuses for why. So it goes both ways. If Josh Allen doesn't sit for a year at minimum he's going to have a problematic career.

If Josh Allen busts, then I will have to seriously change my whole process.  Because to me he checks all the boxes.  I currently have him rated as my #2 overall prospect in this class after Saquon Barkley.  And I typically only rank players that high that I have full confidence in. 

I'm not the type to sweep misses under the rug.  To me, if you want to improve your evaluation methods you constantly have to learn from the misses and refine your process each year.

[Chwf3rd25]

11 minutes ago, VanS said:

If Josh Allen busts, then I will have to seriously change my whole process.  Because to me he checks all the boxes.  I currently have him rated as my #2 overall prospect in this class after Saquon Barkley.  And I typically only rank players that high that I have full confidence in. 

I'm not the type to sweep misses under the rug.  To me, if you want to improve your evaluation methods you constantly have to learn from the misses and refine your process each year.

where were Josh Dobbs and Brad Kaaya ranked for you last year?

[VanS]

7 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

where were Josh Dobbs and Brad Kaaya ranked for you last year?

#1 and #2.  And I haven't changed my rankings after their rookie years.  They're still my #1 and #2 QBs from the 2017 class moving forward.  I just don't get why ya'll want me to disavow them after their ROOKIE YEARS?  Rookie years are not really the end all be all when it comes to QBs.  If they're still 3rd stringers with no hope of starting in 2-3 years I'll admit I was wrong about them.   But its way too early RIGHT NOW after their rookie year to make any declaration about last year's QB class.

For reference sake, look back at the 2011 NFL Draft.  Tyrod Taylor was the 11th QB selected that year in the 6th round by the Baltimore Ravens.  He barely played in his first 4 years in the NFL as a backup.  In 2015, he got a chance with the Buffalo Bills to be a starter.  Since then he's made a Pro Bowl and has been an otherwise solid starting QB.  One could argue that after Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, he's been the 3rd best QB to come out of 2011 NFL Draft.  Remember, that draft had the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder going in the 1st round.  Draft position or early playing time aren't exactly perfect predictors of future success in the NFL as a QB.  We've seen guys like Vince Young and RG3 light it up as rookies only to flame out for the rest of their careers.  And we've also seen legendary Hall of Fame caliber QBs like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers barely played any snaps as rookies.  Or guys like Kurt Warner and Warren Moon not make an NFL roster as rookies.  I'm not saying Dobbs and Kaaya are going to the Hall of Fame.  I'm just saying its way too early to make any determinations about any of the QBs after their rookie years. 

I had my reasons for ranking Dobbs and Kaaya as my top 2 QBs.  In particular, I valued their INTANGIBLES way more than all the other QBs in that class.  Thus, I have no reason to panic right now and change my views on them.  I picked them because I thought they would keep improving moving forward, even if they didn't light it up as first year players.   QB is a position where intangibles are very important and the high intangible guys eventually win out because they're always looking to improve while the guys with not so great intangibles will be happy with early success (if they get it).  Dobbs and Kaaya are the QBs from the 2017 NFL Draft that I believe will be playing at the highest level 4-5 years from now. 

 

[Tugboat]

On 16/04/2018 at 8:23 PM, Rich7sena said:

When watching Josh Allen, it sometimes seems like the coaching staff was trying to showcase him as a player more than trying to win games. It's one thing to have a quarterback who can make every throw, but it's another entirely to have players who can run every route or catch every ball.

Yeah.  I got a bit of this impression watching Wyoming games.  Sort of.  I don't think it's so much doing these things purely to showcase Allen per se...but more just that it feels like maybe that staff's ambition outstripped their means.  Trying to run a scheme that's a little bit too big for their britches.  

It's where i get that the criticism of his supporting cast comes with the obligatory, "he played similarly weaker competition too"...but watching the games, i think there's a bit more to it than that.  There's a real "Threshold of Execution" that your personnel have to meet.  To execute a system at a high level of efficiency, you have to have the people to execute individually on their assignments to at least a minimal level.  Too often, it appears Wyoming didn't have the talent to meet that minimum threshold of execution.

In a "Pro Style" system like that, your QB can have all the arm and talent in the world, but you're not going to do anything at a high level of efficiency if your OLine is consistently unable to provide reliable protection for even a minimal amount of time.  You can only "throw open" a receiver so much, if they're completely unable to separate or smoothly track and adjust on balls.  etc.  There a lot of times on film where you can see that Wyoming supporting cast failing to meet that standard you need to execute with efficiency (and a correspondingly high comp%).  Doesn't really matter if your competition is similarly "weak"...if you can't execute, you can't execute.

I think i get what the staff were trying to do there.  You get a big armed QB and you try to feature a "pro style system" as a selling point for the program (and the prospect).  You try to build yourself up as a program that put a hyped QB in the NFL high in the draft.  That's a way to put a nothing program on the map and hopefully draw in better and better recruits for the future.  But too often it seemed to kind of backfire, when that "Pro Style" system wasn't being executed properly anyway.  It's one thing trying to run a sophisticated "Pro Style system" when you're a premier cream of the crop FCS powerhouse drawing in your pick of the litter among recruits considering that level (like ND State).  It's another thing entirely when you're a bottom tier FBS program picking up the scraps of guys at that level.  People often rip on these other programs for running "gimmicky" schemes, but they do so for a reason...That's the type of scheme they can find the personnel to execute efficiently.

[Tugboat]

As to the original question and Allen in a more general sense...The crazy/intriguing thing with Allen, is that in spite of all that schematic/supporting cast deficiency stuff, you can see him actually finding ways to execute a lot of impressive things.  Like @VanS and others in this thread have said...i actually put on the film and i don't see this hopeless "big armed doofus" caricature of chronic inaccuracy that a lot of draftniks and the much ballyhooed Completion % number would have me expecting.  I see a raw kid with some intermittent accuracy problems, having a hard time running for his life and trying to make chicken salad out of chicken**** on the fly throwing from all manner of less than optimal platforms to receivers who make almost everything a tighter window throw than it needs to be.  Yet a lot of the time...actually sort of pulling it off.

I know that the numbers suggest he'd be a serious outlier if he finds success as an NFL starter with that Completion %.  That figure has been harped on ad naseum, but i think has been a bit overstated, without context of how he arrived at that number.  He's a couple easy swing pass or quick slant completions per game (or a few less running for his life throwaways where his escapability is the only thing saving them from lost yards) away from "free and clear of the danger zone" in the 60%+ territory.  Actually watching where those numbers come from, it's not a guy who can't hit the broad side of a barn...it's a guy who is regularly forced to make a lot of high difficulty throws, often from less than ideal platforms.  A guy who has some inconsistency in his footwork that causes him to whiff on some "easy" throws that he very much shouldn't.  But it also shows a guy who has an actually kind of special ability to hit things like big throw intermediate-deep out-breaking routes where his receivers often seem to find better separation (i suspect because defenders aren't accustomed to QBs at that level threatening those areas).  An ability to laser balls into tight windows, even while on the move.  And a quickness and natural ease to his feet, arm, and most of the things he does, that was never there with the Hackenberg/Lynch/Gabbert/et al crowd.  He's got the clear "glitches" at times, but on the whole, i just don't see this ponderous scattergun arm cannon spraying every pass randomly off into the middle of nowhere at a hundred miles an hour like a lot of people make him out to be.

It may be a massive statistical outlier if he succeeds, and there's very real chance that he does completely bust out if he can't improve some of the hiccups in his game, and/or lands in the wrong situation, but watching the film...i think there's enough there, and enough extenuating circumstance to think that maybe just maybe, he could be an outlier.

I don't think he's a Top-5 Prospect in the draft...there's just so much risk and uncertainty with him.  But if you need a QB, you need a QB.  He has the talent and potential to warrant a Top-5 pick in today's QB-starved NFL.  These "big 5" are all guys with significant flaws, not just Allen.  On the other hand, the things Allen does do particularly well combined with the phenomenal tools he has make him imo, probably the easiest of the bunch to really "fall in love with".  Easiest for me to get really hyped and excited about, rather than just "settling" on another guy because they're conventionally viewed as a bit "safer".  Probably the most risk to flame out in a spectacularly calamitous trainwreck fashion as well...but drafting QBs high is always a dangerous game.

He's going to be very sensitive to landing spot and situation, which will be a major factor in whether he succeeds or fails at the next level.  And no doubt actually picking him that high would be absolutely terrifying...but it's a swing for the fences.  The sort of pick that will either make or break careers.  But there's enough there to like that i think a Top-5 pick is justifiable, even #1 overall.  In the high stakes game of top-pick QBs, ultimately if he hits, you're golden.  If he busts, you're toast.  Whether you grabbed him 1st, 3rd, or 5th...doesn't really matter one bit.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Tugboat said:

As to the original question and Allen in a more general sense...The crazy/intriguing thing with Allen, is that in spite of all that schematic/supporting cast deficiency stuff, you can see him actually finding ways to execute a lot of impressive things.  Like @VanS and others in this thread have said...i actually put on the film and i don't see this hopeless "big armed doofus" caricature of chronic inaccuracy that a lot of draftniks and the much ballyhooed Completion % number would have me expecting.  I see a raw kid with some intermittent accuracy problems, having a hard time running for his life and trying to make chicken salad out of chicken**** on the fly throwing from all manner of less than optimal platforms to receivers who make almost everything a tighter window throw than it needs to be.  Yet a lot of the time...actually sort of pulling it off.

I know that the numbers suggest he'd be a serious outlier if he finds success as an NFL starter with that Completion %.  That figure has been harped on ad naseum, but i think has been a bit overstated, without context of how he arrived at that number.  He's a couple easy swing pass or quick slant completions per game (or a few less running for his life throwaways where his escapability is the only thing saving them from lost yards) away from "free and clear of the danger zone" in the 60%+ territory.  Actually watching where those numbers come from, it's not a guy who can't hit the broad side of a barn...it's a guy who is regularly forced to make a lot of high difficulty throws, often from less than ideal platforms.  A guy who has some inconsistency in his footwork that causes him to whiff on some "easy" throws that he very much shouldn't.  But it also shows a guy who has an actually kind of special ability to hit things like big throw intermediate-deep out-breaking routes where his receivers often seem to find better separation (i suspect because defenders aren't accustomed to QBs at that level threatening those areas).  An ability to laser balls into tight windows, even while on the move.  And a quickness and natural ease to his feet, arm, and most of the things he does, that was never there with the Hackenberg/Lynch/Gabbert/et al crowd.  He's got the clear "glitches" at times, but on the whole, i just don't see this ponderous scattergun arm cannon spraying every pass randomly off into the middle of nowhere at a hundred miles an hour like a lot of people make him out to be.

It may be a massive statistical outlier if he succeeds, and there's very real chance that he does completely bust out if he can't improve some of the hiccups in his game, and/or lands in the wrong situation, but watching the film...i think there's enough there, and enough extenuating circumstance to think that maybe just maybe, he could be an outlier.

I don't think he's a Top-5 Prospect in the draft...there's just so much risk and uncertainty with him.  But if you need a QB, you need a QB.  He has the talent and potential to warrant a Top-5 pick in today's QB-starved NFL.  These "big 5" are all guys with significant flaws, not just Allen.  On the other hand, the things Allen does do particularly well combined with the phenomenal tools he has make him imo, probably the easiest of the bunch to really "fall in love with".  Easiest for me to get really hyped and excited about, rather than just "settling" on another guy because they're conventionally viewed as a bit "safer".  Probably the most risk to flame out in a spectacularly calamitous trainwreck fashion as well...but drafting QBs high is always a dangerous game.

He's going to be very sensitive to landing spot and situation, which will be a major factor in whether he succeeds or fails at the next level.  And no doubt actually picking him that high would be absolutely terrifying...but it's a swing for the fences.  The sort of pick that will either make or break careers.  But there's enough there to like that i think a Top-5 pick is justifiable, even #1 overall.  In the high stakes game of top-pick QBs, ultimately if he hits, you're golden.  If he busts, you're toast.  Whether you grabbed him 1st, 3rd, or 5th...doesn't really matter one bit.

I feel like this is a very good post. 

[Iamcanadian]

I still believe last year's draft is having a major impact on this year's draft. Both Watson and Mahomes were not considered top 5 QB's and thus were not picked in the draft among the first 5 picks and even Trubisky was considered a reach with the 2nd pick. Teams now feel, they cannot pass on any QB's rated as high as top 15 and feel they will have to draft them very early.

This has impacted this year's draft significantly and driven up the value of the top 4 or 5 QB's if you include Lamar Jackson!!!

Also affecting this year's draft is the obviously lack of elite athletes which seems to be limited to Barkley, just another strong reason to draft a QB much higher than they deserve.

I would say that both Mayfield and Allen are more like top 15 talents in a lot of draft years, but in a weak draft year like this one and with last year's example of success from Watson and Mahomes, teams are in a mood to take a shot at them in the top 5 with Jackson going top 15!

If Watson and Mahomes had been flops, then teams would be quite hesitant to take the chances they are willing to do this draft.

[Groink]

2 hours ago, Tugboat said:

As to the original question and Allen in a more general sense...The crazy/intriguing thing with Allen, is that in spite of all that schematic/supporting cast deficiency stuff, you can see him actually finding ways to execute a lot of impressive things.  Like @VanS and others in this thread have said...i actually put on the film and i don't see this hopeless "big armed doofus" caricature of chronic inaccuracy that a lot of draftniks and the much ballyhooed Completion % number would have me expecting.  I see a raw kid with some intermittent accuracy problems, having a hard time running for his life and trying to make chicken salad out of chicken**** on the fly throwing from all manner of less than optimal platforms to receivers who make almost everything a tighter window throw than it needs to be.  Yet a lot of the time...actually sort of pulling it off.

I know that the numbers suggest he'd be a serious outlier if he finds success as an NFL starter with that Completion %.  That figure has been harped on ad naseum, but i think has been a bit overstated, without context of how he arrived at that number.  He's a couple easy swing pass or quick slant completions per game (or a few less running for his life throwaways where his escapability is the only thing saving them from lost yards) away from "free and clear of the danger zone" in the 60%+ territory.  Actually watching where those numbers come from, it's not a guy who can't hit the broad side of a barn...it's a guy who is regularly forced to make a lot of high difficulty throws, often from less than ideal platforms.  A guy who has some inconsistency in his footwork that causes him to whiff on some "easy" throws that he very much shouldn't.  But it also shows a guy who has an actually kind of special ability to hit things like big throw intermediate-deep out-breaking routes where his receivers often seem to find better separation (i suspect because defenders aren't accustomed to QBs at that level threatening those areas).  An ability to laser balls into tight windows, even while on the move.  And a quickness and natural ease to his feet, arm, and most of the things he does, that was never there with the Hackenberg/Lynch/Gabbert/et al crowd.  He's got the clear "glitches" at times, but on the whole, i just don't see this ponderous scattergun arm cannon spraying every pass randomly off into the middle of nowhere at a hundred miles an hour like a lot of people make him out to be.

Many draftniks see a stat line or a tweet on a certain prospect and jump on that bandwagon without ever delving deeply into tape.  I think a lot of Allen "haters" fit into that category.  I don't care what others did before him, makes no impact on what he's going to do.  All these top qbs have certain stats we can harp on til the cows come home.  But we're also drafting for potential.  And I don't think Allen has realized that potential playing in that dumpster fire at Wyoming.  I wanna see him coached up in an NFL offense, behind a line that isn't made of paper mache.  

His draft process has been spot on, he's improved at every opportunity.  He's made adjustments to his footwork that have helped with the overthrows, as well as dialing it back and using more touch when needed.  He comes off well in interviews.  He's got one of the best arms I've ever seen throwing the football.  I wanna see him succeed, because some of the plays he makes are downright amazing, and it would be really fun to watch. 

[BleedTheClock]

I think I'm ready to move Josh Allen up to QB #2 behind Darnold. The more tape I watch the more I leave impressed. And it's not like those of us who watch the tape are just blinded by his arm. Everyone in the world knows he has a freak arm. It's the accuracy on the run, it's the ability to evade rushers and step into the pocket to deliver strikes, it's the ability to shuck off tacklers in the pocket and in the open field, it's the fact that he manipulates safeties with his eyes and can make pro style concept completions. The size and arm make him an elite TALENT, but he's got a lot of intangible qualities as well that people just don't want to believe in. People are so fast to follow the narrative that they don't watch film. I know there's several people on here that have watched no film of him and still crap on his completion percentage without contextualizing it.

Allen is going to be fine. I love how he gets crapped on so hard while the other QB's and their flaws are glossed over. It's embarrassing, because it comes mostly from Browns fans that want to cry at the thought of not taking Darnold. So because they want Darnold, anyone other than Sam is obviously a piece of crap. Especially when they can just point to completion percentage and use that to justify their hate. Look, I want Darnold at #1 too, but I think all of the QB's in this class are going to be good. If the guys that get paid to do this think Allen is worth the #1 pick, I have no problem going along with it. I can't stand the whining about taking Allen. We have people threatening to be "done" with the team if they take Allen over Darnold.

My QB's are:

1. Darnold

2. Allen

3. Mayfield

4. Rosen

 

...but they're all close. I'm not going to waver on Darnold being the #1 QB, but the next 3 are all interchangeable to me. And given that Allen has the highest upside, I moved him to #2. Darnold is just a little safer right now, which is why he won't be surpassed as the #1 QB. There are questions with Sam, but I think there are less questions than exist with Allen.

 

People that act like Allen is some big r-tard that can't read a defense or complete a pass to open WR's are clearly not watching tape. Nobody's ever open and he's running for his life every second. Whoever Wyoming's RT is was literally beaten 80% of the snaps I watched. Allen was hardly ever able to throw from a solid platform and had to readjust to throw every single freaking time. Every one of these QB's would have had the same "flaws" had they played at Wyoming. I even had someone make the argument that Wyoming had NFL talent on the squad, citing Brian Hill and 2 other undrafted practice squad players. Pretty funny stuff.

[KhanYouDigIt]

 

he is going to get eaten alive in the NFL

[BleedTheClock]

10 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

 

he is going to get eaten alive in the NFL

Here's another logical explanation:

His offensive line is horrible and he has to find an open WR in 2 seconds before he's running for his life. Oh, and the whole finding an open WR? Kind of hard when every single player on the field is blanketed.

I do think Allen needs to speed up his decision making, but even if you put Peyton Manning or Tom Brady behind this group, they wouldn't have anyone to get the football to. Every single one of his passes has to be laser accurate. Compare that to Baker Mayfield, for example, who gets the easiest throws in the world. He's got his pick of the litter as to who to throw the football to 90% of the time. There are no easy throws built in to Wyoming's offense. They run a pro style power run scheme and they take downfield shots off of that.

Do you guys really think Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield would have fared any better in Wyoming's offense?