Broncos QB Battle - Siemian it is

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

As 2018 discussion continues - the expected DET extension of Stafford confirmed.  DET had so much cap room it was always the most likely outcome.  

 

Whats worth noting - the $ involved.  We are clearly outgunned for any premium FA like Cousins.   A mid-level guy like Taylor makes sense esp if released  - but it underlines how crucial having one of Siemian / Lynch be the 2018 long term guy  would be given our tight cap situation next year (not complete cap hell but bottom 10-12 compared to rest of league) and for a while further.  We don't have the cap $ to get an elite QB and won't have the draft capital to get one of the big 3 prospects.   

Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)

8/28/17, 11:07 PM Lions QB Matthew Stafford becomes the highest-paid NFL player in history:... fb.me/6EgyHRxxh

I never wanted to pay Mathew Stafford that money even if we had it the guy is 5 and 46 against teams with winning records with pedestrian qb numbers. That screams qb purgatory.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

I never wanted to pay Mathew Stafford that money even if we had it the guy is 5 and 46 against teams with winning records with pedestrian qb numbers. That screams qb purgatory.

That's fair few fans would disagree 27M+ is a good investment of $ unless you are truly elite and even then it kills your team cap health.   

But we have to stop thinking there's a quick fix.  Stafford got paid.   Someone else is going to top that deal with Cousins next year barring injury - it won't be us we don't have the $.   FA QB who are even decent are going to command $ that will cripple our cap health which is already iffy.   It's why the Siemian / Lynch route was the best available to us before - get even a league average QB at cheap $ like min-wage cheap you can build a complete team around that guy.   You pay a league average guy 15-20m hard to get that complete team built.  We had 40M+ of cap space and certainly didn't come away with all of our holes addressed. 

Our best option is internal progression from cheaply paid guys to be our QBOTF.   It remains to be seen whether or not we have found it in either Siemian or Lynch (looks better for Siemian than Lynch now esp. now that Lynch's injury will delay progress even further).   Looking to non elite FA is OK if that doesn't work out - it's not going to be that cheap, though.   Which is why our internal development whether it's Siemian, Lynch, Kelly, or our next project - is so key.  

[champ11]

Stafford is like 5-46 vs winning teams

 

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[broncos67]

10 hours ago, germ-x said:

There are some points with this I disagree with.

1.  Siemian wasn't a rookie.  He'd spent a year in the NFL.  He wasn't "thrown into the fire" he had a year of preparation before he was asked to compete for the job.  It gets underestimated how important a year can be for a competitor who wants the starting job.

2.  The draft position point also doesn't really make sense to me. Siemian isn't talented, I've said it a hundred times he's average at best.  Meaning, what we saw last year is probably what he is.  So sure, if for instance Lynch came out and played like Siemian did last season there'd be much more optimism because physically Siemian doesn't compare.  He doesn't compare to the majority of starters in the league, he's actually very comparable to Brian Hoyer physically.  He's literally average at best across the board, from his size to his arm, to his legs, hell even his decision making which I've seen get listed as his greatest strength.  If he had even a trait or 2 to be excited about I don't think his draft position would even matter.  To me he is what he is.  An average QB.

To your first point, it's semantics, not reality. Yes, it wasn't his first year in the league so he wasn't a rookie in that sense, but let's not act like being the 3rd string QB behind Peyton Manning, and Osweiler, who was alleged to be the QBOTF at the time, was yielding him all kinds of reps. Yes, additional time on a team and in the locker room is important, but if it only came down to that Scott Tolzien would look way better than he actually does for the Colts, as an example.

Second point- the draft position absolutely matters. It's why Lynch, despite looking awful, has a chance, and it's also why Siemian, despite data suggesting the opposite, gets pegged as average. For the record, I don't think Siemian is necessarily a franchise QB, but I don't think he's as awful as your suggesting. This was still a first-year starter with a woeful offense all around and we still went 8-6 with him at the helm. He was a 7th rounder, and people largely assume that dictates specifically what he can and can't be. 

His arm isn't elite, but it's at least slightly above average. He's 6'3 220- that's a perfectly legitimate size for a QB. His decision making is probably what you would expect from someone with limited starting experience. He needs to make another leap this year, that's not debatable.

[champ11]

https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/902348727800750080

[champ11]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

To your first point, it's semantics, not reality. Yes, it wasn't his first year in the league so he wasn't a rookie in that sense, but let's not act like being the 3rd string QB behind Peyton Manning, and Osweiler, who was alleged to be the QBOTF at the time, was yielding him all kinds of reps. Yes, additional time on a team and in the locker room is important, but if it only came down to that Scott Tolzien would look way better than he actually does for the Colts, as an example.

Second point- the draft position absolutely matters. It's why Lynch, despite looking awful, has a chance, and it's also why Siemian, despite data suggesting the opposite, gets pegged as average. For the record, I don't think Siemian is necessarily a franchise QB, but I don't think he's as awful as your suggesting. This was still a first-year starter with a woeful offense all around and we still went 8-6 with him at the helm. He was a 7th rounder, and people largely assume that dictates specifically what he can and can't be. 

His arm isn't elite, but it's at least slightly above average. He's 6'3 220- that's a perfectly legitimate size for a QB. His decision making is probably what you would expect from someone with limited starting experience. He needs to make another leap this year, that's not debatable.

Yeah i mean to me at this point it's not even worth arguing about his performance last year or his talent. He's kinda tough to judge based off last year, in reality. So we're going to see if he's an NFL starter this season or not. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, champ11 said:

https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/902348727800750080

Anyone who says Trevor's arm is too limited must be watching a different player than I am.

I was finally able to watch the first half of the game against the Packers (I was watching the fight on Saturday) last night and Trevor made more than a few impressive throws. He is able to plenty of zip on the ball and his accuracy is improved over last year. I'm not saying he has a Jay Cutler arm but his arm is more than enough to be an effective NFL QB. My feelings for the season have become more positive since watching the game last night. Bolles is awful in pass pro, the whole line sans Paradis and Leary are to be honest, and that could limit us but Trevor does a nice job getting the ball out quickly. 

[champ11]

https://twitter.com/NickiJhabvala/status/902575702314147840

[AnAngryAmerican]

5 minutes ago, champ11 said:

https://twitter.com/NickiJhabvala/status/902575702314147840

Wow. I jumped all over TBE6 a couple weeks ago for floating the idea but I guess now it wasn't that far-fetched after all. 

Now I do think Justin Simmons is the real deal. That being said, this is almost a baseball like move, he's not going to be resigned this offseason so we try to get what we can get for him now. I'm not sure how trading Ward would sit with me, I think it would depend upon what we get in return. 

[champ11]

3 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Wow. I jumped all over TBE6 a couple weeks ago for floating the idea but I guess now it wasn't that far-fetched after all. 

Now I do think Justin Simmons is the real deal. That being said, this is almost a baseball like move, he's not going to be resigned this offseason so we try to get what we can get for him now. I'm not sure how trading Ward would sit with me, I think it would depend upon what we get in return. 

The only way it makes sense to me is if they think Ward hurts us on the field this year. I could see it. Avoid a benching situation. Because I don't really see how he has too much trade value. Maybe a 4th round pick at max?? But this might just be reported based off discussions and nothing serious.

As for Cian Fahey's opinion on Siemian - he's just one guy but I do respect his analysis of QB's. 

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Wow. I jumped all over TBE6 a couple weeks ago for floating the idea but I guess now it wasn't that far-fetched after all. 

Now I do think Justin Simmons is the real deal. That being said, this is almost a baseball like move, he's not going to be resigned this offseason so we try to get what we can get for him now. I'm not sure how trading Ward would sit with me, I think it would depend upon what we get in return. 

Haha I was just about to post it thanks lol I was so happy I don't look like an idiot now.

[thebestever6]

2 hours ago, champ11 said:

The only way it makes sense to me is if they think Ward hurts us on the field this year. I could see it. Avoid a benching situation. Because I don't really see how he has too much trade value. Maybe a 4th round pick at max?? But this might just be reported based off discussions and nothing serious.

As for Cian Fahey's opinion on Siemian - he's just one guy but I do respect his analysis of QB's. 

I think it also makes sense if we get a mid round pick period. I mean we might be able to get a nice compensatory pick if he plays well and signs a nice deal. But 1 you're assuming denver doesnt go after free agents. And two that he keeps up his level of play.

Two very big assumptions for an aging safety. A bird in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush.

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Haha I was just about to post it thanks lol I was so happy I don't look like an idiot now.

Here's where my earlier baseball analogy doesn't work - and I had forgotten about it at the time - is that, unless Ward's play totally falls off the cliff this year, he is likely to get another decent-sized contract from another team in the offseason, meaning we can get a respectable compensatory pick, probably not a 3rd but a 4th. So we won't be walking away empty-handed when Ward leaves in the offseason. 

For what it's worth, Brandon Stokley and Troy Renck were just killing this idea on The Fan. Both agreed it would majorly disruptive to the locker room as TJ is one of the more popular, well-liked and better-respected players on the team. We just lost DeMarcus Ware, I really don't think it's wise that we jettison another veteran leader. TJ is also key on the field in terms of helping to setup coverages and direct traffic pre-snap. They said unless we're getting a big upgrade at a major position of need, trading TJ makes zero sense. I agree. I also think TJ is important in run defense and given that we didn't do a whole heck of a lot of upgrade that in the offseason, this is not a good idea just about any way you slice it. 

[BroncoBruin]

Hard to sell your team on competing this year if you trade one of the No Fly Zone starters. Bad idea all around.

[thebestever6]

46 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Here's where my earlier baseball analogy doesn't work - and I had forgotten about it at the time - is that, unless Ward's play totally falls off the cliff this year, he is likely to get another decent-sized contract from another team in the offseason, meaning we can get a respectable compensatory pick, probably not a 3rd but a 4th. So we won't be walking away empty-handed when Ward leaves in the offseason. 

For what it's worth, Brandon Stokley and Troy Renck were just killing this idea on The Fan. Both agreed it would majorly disruptive to the locker room as TJ is one of the more popular, well-liked and better-respected players on the team. We just lost DeMarcus Ware, I really don't think it's wise that we jettison another veteran leader. TJ is also key on the field in terms of helping to setup coverages and direct traffic pre-snap. They said unless we're getting a big upgrade at a major position of need, trading TJ makes zero sense. I agree. I also think TJ is important in run defense and given that we didn't do a whole heck of a lot of upgrade that in the offseason, this is not a good idea just about any way you slice it. 

But from my understanding a compensatory pick is only maximized if given the fact you don't sign a player with equal contract value. Point blank we don't know what the future holds. We don't know what the ceiling is getting a pick for TJ. We don't know what the leadership dynamic has been since Ware left, We don't know how far Simmons has come to fill that void.

 

There's so many unknowns and very little knowns, that's why Ward is being shopped they see practice everyday and know the dynamic of this team, I doubt they will look stupid 3 years from now when making this move. 

TJ may also have more value than people assume I mean the odds of a second round pick performing to his previous levels fot four years are slim.

So I hope the broncos put lipstick on a pig and make it loom like a supermodel.