Broncos QB Battle - Siemian it is

[thebestever6]

5 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

So you are saying there's a chance. 

I will wait for the Dumb and Dumber gif.

Haha It's just,crazy to look at that stat I know 1st round qbs have a 50% chance to become a franchise qb. But qbs in the 20s have almost none. It almost makes me want to offer 3 first and Trevor or paxton for luck or stafford. Elway is so good at late round picks its almost like we wouldnt miss much.

[thebestever6]

7 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

So you are saying there's a chance. 

I will wait for the Dumb and Dumber gif.

and Marino dropped because of drug rumors he would of went a lot higher, and Rodgers dropped out of the top 10 because the rookie wage scale was crazy back than. So in reality there's no chance. 

[Broncofan]

15 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

I don't think it should be undersold just how dramatically Lynch needs to improve though, and in areas where it's difficult to. Accuracy. Touch. Feel for the pocket. Keeping those eyes up, reading the entire field. Speed of release.  To improve in every area here is a total pipe dream and you rarely see substantial improvement in a few of these traits. I'm not going to call it impossible but there might be a 10% chance of Lynch panning out, he has to change nearly everything about the way he plays the position.

I'd be the first to say it's not even a 50/50 prop Lynch gets there.   But the issue is that if he was mega-raw coming out of college, then learning the mental side takes time.....even 2 seasons.   If we didn't need a QB so badly back then, frankly, we probably wouldn't have reached in Rd 1 for a guy like him, but that's how mega-overvalued QB is these days.   

The 2 areas that need to change the most are read progression and keeping eyes up - they kinda go hand in hand (you don't keep your eyes up, how can you get through your reads?)   D recognition is just more time in the film room, and then more snaps in practice.     If the eyes stay up, the reads get faster.   The D recognition happens sooner, the reads get faster and the anticipation improves.   The skills all work together.  I know you & most others get that, but it's important to underline that it's a cascade effect.   Right now, with poor D recognition and eyes down, he has no shot.   Maybe it never improves - but those are the things that if they get better, they get better over time.  It's the main reason behind the breakthrough we usually see with QB's in the past in their 2nd/3rd year.    They don't suddenly get physically better, the mental game clicks.  Now, it's no given with Lynch, and I'd agree that the flat growth curve is really worrisome.  But it's still too soon to close the book here.

All of which to say - once Elway embarked on this path, he has to see it through at least 2 years.   Otherwise, he should have just gone BPA and passed on Lynch.   Maybe next year we'll know that was the right call either way - but by taking him, giving it another year is the path Elway also committed the organization to taking.   It's why 1st-round QB's often do influence the fate of franchises for at least 3+ seasons (the 2 seasons you develop them, and the 3rd you take finding another guy if they don't work out).

[Broncofan]

15 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I read an article about the qbs and Nfl done by Woody Paige. And in NFL history only 2 qbs picked in the 20s became franchise picks.

7 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

and Marino dropped because of drug rumors he would of went a lot higher, and Rodgers dropped out of the top 10 because the rookie wage scale was crazy back than. So in reality there's no chance. 

 

That's terrible logic to take from Paige's article.  There are a lot of QB's in the top 10, 10-20 range who fail - cherrypicking the 20's ignores the reasons why QB's fail, which is way more important than the # they were taken at.  There are a bunch of 2nd rounders who've succeeded in the 30's (presently, Carr, Dalton, and even though he's faded, Kaep has to be considered a success for his prime).   But somehow being picked in the 20's is the deciding factor to failing? Awful, awful logic to take this as the conclusion.

Now, if you want to take a look at the QB's taken in general, maybe there are better reasons to be found as to why drafted QB's fail.   And in fact, looking at the list of all the Rd 1 busts, and those who succeed/fail on Day 2, not just those taken in the 20's, there are 2 take-home messages from a look at the QB history of Round 1, 2 & 3:

1.  Don't reach for a QB because it's a weak class.   And reaching for a QB is a bigger temptation, because of how mega-valued the position is.  But it makes teams make picks even at the time that people saw were huge reaches.   Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, Brady Quinn, Josh Freeman, EJ Manuel - all taken in Rd 1 (forget the 20's, they were awful reaches even higher than 20).    Maybe it all works out in 2017, but man, they didn't follow this lesson at all - not 1, but 3 guys taken in top 15, and 2 teams paid dearly to get them.   Mainly because this class was seen as weak at the top.  

2.  Don't fall in love with the physical-tools-only or playground-style college guy, the NFL weeds these guys out.  This is where Lynch might burn us - Jamarcus, Bortles, Vince Young & Akili Smith fit into the physical-tools (with Lynch), Manziel & Tebow fell into the latter category.  Lynch's concern is that you can put him in both areas (physical tools-only, and his college O was nowhere near NFL-ready).  It's a big reason why Lamar Jackson is getting dinged in his NFL evaluation for 2018, and unless he shows more progress besides physical prowess, IMO rightfully so.

On the flip side, catching QB's falling for character/unknown reasons are precisely the guys to target - Marino had unfounded drug allegations, A-Rod got knocked for his frame.  Russell Wilson for his size.  Derek Carr for his brother's history.    If you took that one flag away, the rest of the analysis said they had the tools to succeed - and by falling, they also reduced the risk significantly.  Whether or not they get picked at 20's like A-Rod/Marino, 30's like Carr, or Rd 3 like Wilson, mining for value by not going with conventional wisdom on what makes a successful QB, there's where value has been found.  

If Elway whiffs with Lynch, we shouldn't be saying never to pick a QB in the 20's - hopefully we should learn the lessons above (but let's also give Lynch the full 2 years before we press the panic button on cutting bait now, as being suggested in this thread). 

[7DnBrnc53]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

On the flip side, catching QB's falling for character/unknown reasons are precisely the guys to target - Marino had unfounded drug allegations, A-Rod got knocked for his frame.  Russell Wilson for his size.  Derek Carr for his brother's history.    If you took that one flag away, the rest of the analysis said they had the tools to succeed - and by falling, they also reduced the risk significantly.  Whether or not they get picked at 20's like A-Rod/Marino, 30's like Carr, or Rd 3 like Wilson, mining for value by not going with conventional wisdom on what makes a successful QB, there's where value has been found.  

I don't think that A-Rod got knocked because of his frame (if, by that, you mean his height and weight). I think that it had to do (at least in part) with being involved with Jeff Tedford. 

Besides that, though, you are right on the rest. I can't believe how these teams continue to over-reach for need at QB despite the evidence staring them in the face. 

[jsthomp2007]

Seems like a rarity that you get a draft like 1983, and the year that Eli, Big Ben, and Rivers were drafted.  Unless, there is a clear cup #1, I wouldn't draft a QB in the first round.  Unless, you absolutely know what you are getting like a Peyton Manning.  Drafting a QB in the first is a crap shoot.  Even a guy like Andrew Luck is struggling and we all thought he was the second coming...RGIII and R. Leaf completely busted.  We still don't know for certain what Tampa is going to get from Winston...Mariota...yet they do look like promising young rookies.  And, the only way to get those kind of guys is to be really bad to team to be in a position to draft #1 and #2.  

But to me the best QBs come later: Dak, Carr, Montana, Brady, R. Wilson, Cousins, Siemien...that come to mind. 

You have a few QBs drafted in the first have panned out: Matt Ryan (all of a sudden...it took him a few years), Aaron Rodgers (who sat for three years, Matt Stafford (not superstar but steady for sure).  

 

With these things you just never know.  If you can pick a position in the first round with any consistently, I don't think you can...maybe safety or defensive line (and defensive line guys take a few years to adjust)...maybe LB??  

 

I think this is why Elways excels in the later rounds, he gets guys who typically transition well into the NFL.  

[champ11]

http://deadspin.com/why-your-team-sucks-2017-denver-broncos-1798341694 

 

AH the most wonderful time of year 

[AnAngryAmerican]

22 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

What are Siemien's physical limitations?  He isn't Doug Flutie.  

This is a good point. I hear a lot of people mention Trevor is somewhat limited physically. I beg to differ. He's listed at 6'3" and 220lbs, or about the same size as Matt Ryan, who won the MVP last year. He has more than adequate arm strength, which Vance praised a few days ago, and he moves around well. Also remember that he dealt with a significant shoulder injury last year and played through it. You don't have to be of the physical stature of Cam Newton or Andrew Luck to be an effective NFL QB. Tom Brady isn't a physical marvel, in terms of his size, strength or athleticism and he's put together a pretty nice career. 

[BroncoBruin]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I'd be the first to say it's not even a 50/50 prop Lynch gets there.   But the issue is that if he was mega-raw coming out of college, then learning the mental side takes time.....even 2 seasons.   If we didn't need a QB so badly back then, frankly, we probably wouldn't have reached in Rd 1 for a guy like him, but that's how mega-overvalued QB is these days.   

The 2 areas that need to change the most are read progression and keeping eyes up - they kinda go hand in hand (you don't keep your eyes up, how can you get through your reads?)   D recognition is just more time in the film room, and then more snaps in practice.     If the eyes stay up, the reads get faster.   The D recognition happens sooner, the reads get faster and the anticipation improves.   The skills all work together.  I know you & most others get that, but it's important to underline that it's a cascade effect.   Right now, with poor D recognition and eyes down, he has no shot.   Maybe it never improves - but those are the things that if they get better, they get better over time.  It's the main reason behind the breakthrough we usually see with QB's in the past in their 2nd/3rd year.    They don't suddenly get physically better, the mental game clicks.  Now, it's no given with Lynch, and I'd agree that the flat growth curve is really worrisome.  But it's still too soon to close the book here.

All of which to say - once Elway embarked on this path, he has to see it through at least 2 years.   Otherwise, he should have just gone BPA and passed on Lynch.   Maybe next year we'll know that was the right call either way - but by taking him, giving it another year is the path Elway also committed the organization to taking.   It's why 1st-round QB's often do influence the fate of franchises for at least 3+ seasons (the 2 seasons you develop them, and the 3rd you take finding another guy if they don't work out).

Oh, the read progression is an area where he actually can improve. It won't matter though, because he's so behind the curve in other areas where it's harder to improve, it won't make a significant difference. As I said, every single aspect of his game needs to change. It ain't gonna happen.

[BroncoBruin]

It's not quite trying to develop Tebow into an NFL type, but it's in that next tier of impossibility.

[iLikeDefense]

You think anyone would be willing to trade for him, say if Siemian balls out this year and we think he's a keeper. Would we even be willing to trade him before year 3? I wonder how the staff views Kelly as a potential starting QB down the line? Next year could be a 2 way QB battle, not sure how that works or if it's even beneficial for everyone competing.

[BroncoBruin]

42 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

You think anyone would be willing to trade for him, say if Siemian balls out this year and we think he's a keeper. Would we even be willing to trade him before year 3? I wonder how the staff views Kelly as a potential starting QB down the line? Next year could be a 2 way QB battle, not sure how that works or if it's even beneficial for everyone competing.

Oh someone would take him, but for what value? For a 4th or later, I'm sure there would be a lot of interest but we'd be hanging up the phone. For Day 1 or Day 2 picks...hard to see another team selling themselves on a real commitment to the guy.

[champ11]

9 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Oh someone would take him, but for what value? For a 4th or later, I'm sure there would be a lot of interest but we'd be hanging up the phone. For Day 1 or Day 2 picks...hard to see another team selling themselves on a real commitment to the guy.

yah, he'd only have late round pick value 

[BroncosFan2010]

Ya, I would rather hold on to him and deal him going into year three for a R7 than deal him now for a R4, and I say that as a big disbeliever in him. The physical talent is still there, and I take the off chance that he figures it out over prematurely dealing him for a middling draft pick.

[champ11]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/24/16198586/tyrod-taylor-buffalo-bills-trade-jacksonville-denver-los-angeles-rams

 

I'd trade Lynch and a 3rd to Buffalo for Taylor.