Broncos QB Battle - Siemian it is

[iLikeDefense]

1 hour ago, BroncoSojia said:

What has Lynch shown to be worth anything in a trade? I mean, the UDFA from Northern Colorado we brought in has looked better than him. 

Lol. Ok.

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

Lol. Ok.

I mean, his statement is accurate. Sloter has looked better. He is playing worse competition, but he undoubtedly has looked better. Especially with his comfort in the pocket, which is nuts. A 2nd year R1 should easily understand the NFL pocket better than a low division undrafted rookie.

 

As for Tyrod, I would give Siemien another year. I don't think he is much better, if at all better, than Siemien outside his athleticism. Next offseason there may actually be a surplus of QB's available and we can look at him then if Trevor doesn't progress. But right now we have a young, talented QB behind center and despite his flaws he is our best, and only, option for this season.

[broncos67]

35 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I mean, his statement is accurate. Sloter has looked better. He is playing worse competition, but he undoubtedly has looked better. Especially with his comfort in the pocket, which is nuts. A 2nd year R1 should easily understand the NFL pocket better than a low division undrafted rookie.

 

As for Tyrod, I would give Siemien another year. I don't think he is much better, if at all better, than Siemien outside his athleticism. Next offseason there may actually be a surplus of QB's available and we can look at him then if Trevor doesn't progress. But right now we have a young, talented QB behind center and despite his flaws he is our best, and only, option for this season.

And yet, reports from camp the last few days when Sloter wasn't playing a bunch of roster fodder and got some burn with the 1s was that he looked awful. It's all relative.

[broncos67]

I don't understand the trade talk. Lynch isn't getting traded because he has no value. Just because someone was a high pick doesn't mean they are tradeable.

On the flipside, I actually do think Siemian is a bargaining chip for us. Elway clearly doesn't think Siemian is the long-term answer, or at least to date he doesn't believe it. If Siemian performs at a higher level than last year and shows more progression in his game, he will probably be desirable to someone.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, broncos67 said:

I don't understand the trade talk. Lynch isn't getting traded because he has no value. Just because someone was a high pick doesn't mean they are tradeable.

On the flipside, I actually do think Siemian is a bargaining chip for us. Elway clearly doesn't think Siemian is the long-term answer, or at least to date he doesn't believe it. If Siemian performs at a higher level than last year and shows more progression in his game, he will probably be desirable to someone.

Exactly.   Put it another way - I bet JAX fans would love it if a team would offer a 3rd rounder for Bortles right now.  But no one in their right mind would do that.   It doesn't matter that he was taken as a top 5 player, he's not even close to worth a Day 2 pick (and I'd even venture no one would give up anything for him).   While Lynch still deserves a year to find out if he can make the leap, given how far back he started from last year, why would people treat him as worth a high investment?  We're the ones who made the big investment, so that came with the commitment to see his early development through - but no team that's got nothing else invested in him would want to commit significant risk.  

We're the ones who took the bulk of the risk, the only offers we're going to see are so lowball they are low-to-no-risk for the teams that would even consider a lowball offer (like a 6th-7th round pick).   It's why our only play with Lynch is to see his development through to start of next season without hesitation.  It baffles me how often people overvalue their own players, and don't realize how the rest of the league actually sees them.  Talk of Siemian being worth a 1st rounder at this past draft is another example of this (and Siemian's play no doubt may have garnered a little interest...but a little is a LONG ways away from Rd1 like some were dreaming about).

[iLikeDefense]

22 hours ago, iLikeDefense said:

You think anyone would be willing to trade for him, say if Siemian balls out this year and we think he's a keeper. Would we even be willing to trade him before year 3? I wonder how the staff views Kelly as a potential starting QB down the line? Next year could be a 2 way QB battle, not sure how that works or if it's even beneficial for everyone competing.

 

21 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 It baffles me how often people overvalue their own players, and don't realize how the rest of the league actually sees them.  

To be fair, I never placed any value to Lynch just merely threw out questions.. you know for discussions. If Siemian doesn't ball out this year, we are put in a similar or worse situation next year with a for sure crap QB in Siemian, potential bust in Lynch and the last pick of the 2017 NFL draft..

[champ11]

4 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

 

To be fair, I never placed any value to Lynch just merely threw out questions.. you know for discussions. If Siemian doesn't ball out this year, we are put in a similar or worse situation next year with a for sure crap QB in Siemian, potential bust in Lynch and the last pick of the 2017 NFL draft..

Yeah, my hypothetical trade package had Lynch as a throw in with a second or third pick. Dude obviously has no value rn 

[Broncofan]

 Yeah I got that you were asking about scenarios, all good - and I get Lynch / Taylor deal that @champ11 offered up that Lynch  was a throw-in with the Day 2 pick being the bigger piece - why I didn't say anything then.   

What's baffling though is how much trade value our own QB's are being given overall - we had ppl talking Siemian for a 1st this winter - when we didn't even know if he would be a starter this year, and had clear promise but also only 2 great games.  A day 2 pick would have been over-market value imo (not that we could deal him anyways as this so-called competition demonstrated).   Now we get talk about Lynch having standalone value like a 4th when a bunch of our fans want to just cut bait.   If we did the same with other teams QB who they were giving up on like Bortles we'd laugh at the valuations we are talking about, that's the point that @broncos67was making that I agree 100 percent with.   It wasn't directed at your post or even @champ11 but read the old Forum thread on trading either guy or the earlier pages and these pipe dream scenarios get mentioned.  It's just not based on current reality.  

 

 

[thebestever6]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 Yeah I got that you were asking about scenarios, all good - and I get Lynch / Taylor deal that @champ11 offered up that Lynch  was a throw-in with the Day 2 pick being the bigger piece - why I didn't say anything then.   

What's baffling though is how much trade value our own QB's are being given overall - we had ppl talking Siemian for a 1st this winter - when we didn't even know if he would be a starter this year, and had clear promise but also only 2 great games.  A day 2 pick would have been over-market value imo (not that we could deal him anyways as this so-called competition demonstrated).   Now we get talk about Lynch having standalone value like a 4th when a bunch of our fans want to just cut bait.   If we did the same with other teams QB who they were giving up on like Bortles we'd laugh at the valuations we are talking about, that's the point that @broncos67was making that I agree 100 percent with.   It wasn't directed at your post or even @champ11 but read the old Forum thread on trading either guy or the earlier pages and these pipe dream scenarios get mentioned.  It's just not based on current reality.  

 

 

I said another year of production will garner an Alex Smith type trade package. Given trevor will be on the cheap for another yearc I can still see that type of haul.

I only see that if Lynch comes in and balls out like Kap. I still have faith Lynch I think Lynch had a lot of positive plays but they weren't the best plays because he played not to lose the competition he didnt play to win it. I'd like to see how Lynch does free with no pressure on him.

Theoretically, I think this next game is to see how longs Siemians leesh is.

[jsthomp2007]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

I said another year of production will garner an Alex Smith type trade package. Given trevor will be on the cheap for another yearc I can still see that type of haul.

I only see that if Lynch comes in and balls out like Kap. I still have faith Lynch I think Lynch had a lot of positive plays but they weren't the best plays because he played not to lose the competition he didnt play to win it. I'd like to see how Lynch does free with no pressure on him.

Theoretically, I think this next game is to see how longs Siemians leesh is.

Trevor will be your QB for the next decade..just strap on and take it.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I said another year of production will garner an Alex Smith type trade package. Given trevor will be on the cheap for another yearc I can still see that type of haul.

I only see that if Lynch comes in and balls out like Kap. I still have faith Lynch I think Lynch had a lot of positive plays but they weren't the best plays because he played not to lose the competition he didnt play to win it. I'd like to see how Lynch does free with no pressure on him.

Theoretically, I think this next game is to see how longs Siemians leesh is.

Alex Smith had multiple years as a starter and a 1st round label.  It's pure fantasy to think a year of production from Sienian that's yet not good enough to consider keeping would net Smith's  return (2nd Rd plus 5th Rd).   Most importantly besides a longer track record and label Smith didn't have ANY competition for teams looking to acquire a QB   The 2013 QB draft class was horrible and no viable FA options were there.  Geno Smith, Mike Glennon and EJ Manuel Rd 1 ring any bells?   The best FA re-signed with  his own team (Flacco), the next best were Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow.  Smith's lack of competition was a huge reason for the price paid (just like how MIN had no options but PHI & Bradford last year so overpaid heavily). 

It's like Jets fans thinking they could offer us Richardson and a 3rd fir Von pre-2015 season in FFMD ( @paul-mac might remember that one).   We couldn't stop laughing our way to say no.   That's the same reaction we'd get looking for Rd 2 pixk plus more in the 2018 market, when Siemian has only 1 cheap year left next season.  If he plays out if his mind we keep him. If he doesn't play out of his mind then we aren't getting a huge return in one Day 2 pick let alone a Rd 2 pick plus other picks.  

Just so it's clear how different 2018 is - let's review.  QB's like Tyrod Taylor are likely to be available and a huge QB draft class is coming.  Kirk Cousins will almost certainly be a UFA, WAS can't afford a 3rd franchise tag at 36M.   The 2018 draft class has 3 elite talents already ID'd.  We can't get any of them except maybe Taylor (ESP if BUF releases him after this year).  But now you are saying hey we've got Siemian to give, let's see about multiple picks including a Rd 2 pick?   Compared to the draft class, Cousins and Taylor?   Plus whoever loses the MIA job (we aren't getting Cutler back ever but someone else might consider him or Tannehill, MIA is keeping one and letting the other walk).   Come on, look at the market & draft class and wake up to smell the coffee.  

We all laughed at the Glennon-for-a-2nd rumors 2 years ago coming from Tampa fans and McCarron-for--a 2nd or more (not the local story that was reported but the CIN-fed story to national media that they turned down a 2nd for McCarron).   We laughed at NE fans insisting teams were giving up not one but Two first-rounders for Jimmy G.   Let's not be that delusional fanbase but one based in reality.  Reality says given where Lynch is at now, for Siemian to play at a level now that's not worth considering keeping him next year, he's not getting a return that's even close to  Alex Smith.   Either he steps forward in which case we consider him for our future.   If he doesn't then a Smith like return is a pipe dream.  

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Alex Smith had multiple years as a starter and a 1st round label.  It's pure fantasy to think a year of production from Sienian that's yet not good enough to consider keeping would net Smith's  return (2nd Rd plus 5th Rd).   Most importantly besides a longer track record and label Smith didn't have ANY competition for teams looking to acquire a QB   The 2013 QB draft class was horrible and no viable FA options were there.  Geno Smith, Mike Glennon and EJ Manuel Rd 1 ring any bells?   The best FA re-signed with  his own team (Flacco), the next best were Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow.  Smith's lack of competition was a huge reason for the price paid (just like how MIN had no options but PHI & Bradford last year so overpaid heavily). 

It's like Jets fans thinking they could offer us Richardson and a 3rd fir Von pre-2015 season in FFMD ( @paul-mac might remember that one).   We couldn't stop laughing our way to say no.   That's the same reaction we'd get looking for Rd 2 pixk plus more in the 2018 market, when Siemian has only 1 cheap year left next season.  If he plays out if his mind we keep him. If he doesn't play out of his mind then we aren't getting a huge return in one Day 2 pick let alone a Rd 2 pick plus other picks.  

Just so it's clear how different 2018 is - let's review.  QB's like Tyrod Taylor are likely to be available and a huge QB draft class is coming.  Kirk Cousins will almost certainly be a UFA, WAS can't afford a 3rd franchise tag at 36M.   The 2018 draft class has 3 elite talents already ID'd.  We can't get any of them except maybe Taylor (ESP if BUF releases him after this year).  But now you are saying hey we've got Siemian to give, let's see about multiple picks including a Rd 2 pick?   Compared to the draft class, Cousins and Taylor?   Plus whoever loses the MIA job (we aren't getting Cutler back ever but someone else might consider him or Tannehill, MIA is keeping one and letting the other walk).   Come on, look at the market & draft class and wake up to smell the coffee.  

We all laughed at the Glennon-for-a-2nd rumors 2 years ago coming from Tampa fans and McCarron-for--a 2nd or more (not the local story that was reported but the CIN-fed story to national media that they turned down a 2nd for McCarron).   We laughed at NE fans insisting teams were giving up not one but Two first-rounders for Jimmy G.   Let's not be that delusional fanbase but one based in reality.  Reality says given where Lynch is at now, for Siemian to play at a level now that's not worth considering keeping him next year, he's not getting a return that's even close to  Alex Smith.   Either he steps forward in which case we consider him for our future.   If he doesn't then a Smith like return is a pipe dream.  

I largely agree with you. But there is a tiny scenario that trevor gets dealt for an alex smith type haul. Say Clevland gets pick one, jets 2, Buffalo 3. Cousins lands in Jacksonville, Tyrod Taylor after what hes gonna do this year is gonna be worth little. 

I can see Buffalo trading some day 2 and 3 picks for Trevor. They have Rick Dennison who had trev here and rumors suggest he wanted him. 

The only scenario this happens are either A lynch balls out after trevor shows he grew from last year and never gives the job back. 

Trevor doesn't have to be a 10 to garner that package he just needs to be the tallest midget. In only takes one to dance.

The better lynch does is spot duty the better trevors trade value will be.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I largely agree with you. But there is a tiny scenario that trevor gets dealt for an alex smith type haul. Say Clevland gets pick one, jets 2, Buffalo 3. Cousins lands in Jacksonville, Tyrod Taylor after what hes gonna do this year is gonna be worth little. 

I can see Buffalo trading some day 2 and 3 picks for Trevor. They have Rick Dennison who had trev here and rumors suggest he wanted him. 

The only scenario this happens are either A lynch balls out after trevor shows he grew from last year and never gives the job back. 

Trevor doesn't have to be a 10 to garner that package he just needs to be the tallest midget. In only takes one to dance.

The better lynch does is spot duty the better trevors trade value will be.

There are 3 qb already ID'd as elite ceiling in this draft class. If BUF finishes bottom 3 they aren't dealing for Siemian. 

The 49ers have 25M more than Jax even with Bortles contract voided.      The Cutler/Tannehill loser & Jimmy G & guys like Mike Glennon will be available.  Nothing earth shattering but miles ahead of 2013's trash.   When you keep saying Siemian will be the best of that bunch - you are saying he won't be good enough to keep   Then he will be coveted by other teams.   Buffalo won't get much for Taylor since he's not their long term answer but somehow we will get a lot for our discarded starter?  The logic fallacies here are mind boggling. 

Again if Siemian isn't good enough to keep the long term job he isn't going to be seen as someone to invest in heavily by other teams as their savior either.   It would have been different if Lynch looked ready to take over but Siemian outshone him and both looked great.  Lynch looked awful this preseason, not even close to ready - for Siemian to lose to Lynch next year will just cast doubt as to Siemian's ability to be anything but a game manager given the above.  

As for Lynch, progressing to simply be able to compete for the starter's job by next offseason would be ideal best case scenario given the flat growth curve so far - now he's going to be balling out?  Are you seriously listening to yourself?  You've gone from talking about how no one succeeds drafted in the 20's one day to presenting that Lynch will magically ball out and suddenly he or Siemian will be targeted by other teams the next day.  Your own words contradict this misguided hope.  

Its ok to be an optimist but there's also the need to do a reality check.  Lynch could very well bust out.  Lynch does deserve a full 2 years to show he can start but no growth in his read progression, eyes down with pressure, and terrible anticipation / placement don't result in guys "balling out" next offseason.   Flaming out is more likely.   If he's better great.  But make no mistake if Siemian is seen as the more expendable QB between the 2 he will be viewed as a game manager who couldn't beat a raw rookie so awful in year 2 a good portion of the fanbase were calling to simply cut bait.   Teams don't line up for these guys.   If Siemian progresses then likely we keep him.   Saying he won't progress enough to be kept but get a nice draft pick return in trade are contradictory outcomes.  

Remember that Alex Smith and Sam Bradford got great returns because the teams involved literally had ZERO alternatives.   Look at that 2018 list (Cousins, Taylor, Cutler/Tannehill loser, draft class with at least 3 elite ceiling guys).   Not all of them will be sexy but they will be many viable alternatives - teams do not overpay when other alternatives exist.  Miami loses Tannehill - they didn't explore the trade market like MIN did - they took Cutler.  No picks needed because alternatives were present.   The QB class of FA won't be exciting but there will be alternatives for at least 3-4 teams, while at least 3 more teams will find their guy early in the draft.    When that happens, no big trade returns occur for guys that can't keep the starters job, especially when the competition was subpar the year before.  

It sucks that our QB progression has not gone as hoped for.   It's tough to accept but acceptance is the final step of grief.  Denial is the first step, rationalization / bargaining are the steps before acceptance takes place.   Saying Siemian can lose the 2018 job but net us is a big return in trade is not only contradictory, it's also somewhere along the spectrum of grief rationalization / bargaining for our QB situation.  Acceptance comes next.  

[jsthomp2007]

So if Siemian keeps improving and becomes a solid NFL, it seems like many still think he will be traded. Some of you are just odd balls. 

[jolly red giant]

Everybody seems to be throwing Lynch under the bus because he didn't beat out Siemian. Way too early for that.

For the record - I think Lynch will be a bust - but when he was drafted every analyst put him down as a long-term project  (despite Elway talking him up). The guy is under contract for the next 2 (potentially 3) years that will cost big money to dump unless someone throws the bone of a draft pick. Nobody is going to trade for him now and will not until he proves he can play - and if he proves he can play there is no reason to trade him unless you have someone better coming up behind (or Siemian proves to be the QBOTF).

Lynch likely has two years working with Musgrave before any decision is made - and it will take at least one more year to see what he has got. I suspect that Lynch doesn't have a lot between the ears which is why I think he will bust. Give me a player who is supposed to have limited physical attributes but is smart and knows what he is doing over a player who has bags of potential but hasn't the brains to figure out what he is supposed to be doing.