Official Broncos Forum Draft Thread

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, broncos67 said:

I don't think he's a reach. I think this is literally right in line with where he was expected to go honestly.

No, but I think it underlines the weakness of the CB class at this stage.    Oliver at 2.40 is a huge impact player, and Gallup, while behind Sutton clearly, is only a hair behind IMO.   And I actually am convinced Freeman lasts to 3.99 - but even if he doesn't, John Kelly does.  

To be clear, I've said it from the moment 2.40 happened, so not going hindsight.  It's not a horrible reach, but going WR first set up a sequence which I think goes a lot higher impact-wise.   But, then again, it's not like this is a typical WTF Day 2 Elway's used to giving  us, LOL.   So it's clear progress.

[broncos67]

Just now, germ-x said:

I mean with some of the names on the board it seems like it.  I didn’t watch the prospects that I usually try to this year and this is the 1st pick I literally know nothing about.  But he was projected in the 3rd-4th round by most.

Comparing him to Langley seems smart given they were both picked around the same spot. Langley was all physical tools, no skills. Yiadom is the right size/height/speed profile, slightly better technically, but has some upside limitation.

[germ-x]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

So we went CB.    Isaac Yiadom.   Fits the profile, great ST gunner, but needs at least 1-2 years of development.   

Man, now I'm really sad we went WR 2.40, with 3.99 and Kelly still on the board..  Oliver 2.40 / Gallup 3.71 / Kelly 3.99 (and since no RB has gone since, wonder if Freeman would have made it to 3.99 too, but Kelly for sure does) would have been the dream scenario IMO.   

Nothing against Sutton & Freeman in a vacuum, but the Big Board sequencing matters.   

Overall, I think Day 2 is a B, which is nothing to sneeze at.   Given the A pick with Chubb....I'm not that upset, just wistful at the missed opp with WR 2.40.

Don’t disagree, but Gallup is overrated.  Many, even in this forum, had him available at 99 or 106-113.  Now all of a sudden he was worth #71.

[broncos67]

Just now, Broncofan said:

No, but I think it underlines the weakness of the CB class at this stage.    Oliver at 2.40 is a huge impact player, and Gallup, while behind Sutton clearly, is only a hair behind IMO.   And I actually am convinced Freeman lasts to 3.99 - but even if he doesn't, John Kelly does.  

To be clear, I've said it from the moment 2.40 happened, so not going hindsight.  It's not a horrible reach, but going WR first set up a sequence which I think goes a lot higher impact-wise.   But, then again, it's not like this is a typical WTF Day 2 Elway's used to giving  us, LOL.   So it's clear progress.

I agree with you after the fact, but I don't know that you can necessarily look at it this way. If we're asking for more "true to board" drafting, and you have Sutton as a R1 player on your board and he's there Round 2, then you have to take him. Nothing is ever for certain, especially in Round 3 where all kinds of guys get taken where you might not expect. Sutton is still a good player. Had we taken Chark, I'd have way more questions. On Freeman- impossible to say if he'd be there. He may have been, but we needed a RB. 

[Broncofan]

Just now, broncos67 said:

Comparing him to Langley seems smart given they were both picked around the same spot. Langley was all physical tools, no skills. Yiadom is the right size/height/speed profile, slightly better technically, but has some upside limitation.

The thing about this draft that's unquestionable - Elway's past complete whiffs on Day 2 really bit us hard.   We don't need to go Yiadom if we take Desmond King or Howard Wilson over Langley at 3.99 last year, and we go with actual-skill WR's like Godwin & Golladay over Carlos Henderson at 3.82 last year.     

Still, we have 4.06 & 4.13 - if we can get T Harrison or Crosby and ILB Jewell/Griffen, that mitigates the impact.   If we miss out because they go, though - man, missed opp.   Hopeful we get to get into those 2 positions before the tier dropoff.

[broncos67]

Denver having two early picks tomorrow should be a good thing. I think there's an opportunity to get out of tomorrow with another starter somewhere, maybe two. 

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I agree with you after the fact, but I don't know that you can necessarily look at it this way. If we're asking for more "true to board" drafting, and you have Sutton as a R1 player on your board and he's there Round 2, then you have to take him. Nothing is ever for certain, especially in Round 3 where all kinds of guys get taken where you might not expect. Sutton is still a good player. Had we taken Chark, I'd have way more questions. On Freeman- impossible to say if he'd be there. He may have been, but we needed a RB. 

On that count, I'd disagree on the premise that lack of certainty means you can't play the Board to sequence picks.   Board projection is what teams do all the time to maximize their draft return.   Elway's team just isn't very good at this at all.    It does introduce risk you won't get "your guy" - which is why I'd point out the importance of not getting attached to just 1 guy.   On that count, I'm encouraged that Elway didn't just zero in on Chark, or on Ronald Jones.   Well done in that regard, Elway was prepared to veer off and get a different guy later (Freeman).  

9 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Don’t disagree, but Gallup is overrated.  Many, even in this forum, had him available at 99 or 106-113.  Now all of a sudden he was worth #71.

As for Gallup's ADP - the thing is, you do have to adjust on the fly to how the board is moving.   3.99 is where we'd like to have him, but once Chark/Kirk went, you knew he was going sooner than 3.99.  So you take him 3.71.   If you are evaluating the big board and tiering player talent, you can see it coming.  It's when teams take a guy 2+ rounds early to ensure he doesn't get sniped that big problems start building up - glad to see Elway hasn't gone that route this year.   I'd argue he's done that a lot in the past. 

[Cutler06]

Anyone know what happened to OGBONNIA OKORONKWO outta Okla ST ???  Thought he go by now ??

[broncos67]

1 minute ago, Cutler06 said:

Anyone know what happened to OGBONNIA OKORONKWO outta Okla ST ???  Thought he go by now ??

I think the big concern with him was his size. He's pretty light, so it's a question of where he really fits. He's a sub package pass rusher. Those guys usually land in Round 4.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, Cutler06 said:

Anyone know what happened to OGBONNIA OKORONKWO outta Okla ST ???  Thought he go by now ??

They ran out of vowels on the Draft Board.

[germ-x]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The thing about this draft that's unquestionable - Elway's past complete whiffs on Day 2 really bit us hard.   We don't need to go Yiadom if we take Desmond King or Howard Wilson over Langley at 3.99 last year, and we go with actual-skill WR's like Godwin & Golladay over Carlos Henderson at 3.82 last year.     

Still, we have 4.06 & 4.13 - if we can get T Harrison or Crosby and ILB Jewell/Griffen, that mitigates the impact.   If we miss out because they go, though - man, missed opp.   Hopeful we get to get into those 2 positions before the tier dropoff.

I wouldn’t call Godwin or Golladay “skill” WR’s.  The opposite actually.

[Cutler06]

1 minute ago, broncos67 said:

I think the big concern with him was his size. He's pretty light, so it's a question of where he really fits. He's a sub package pass rusher. Those guys usually land in Round 4.

Heard one analyst suggest him at ILB

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I wouldn’t call Godwin or Golladay “skill” WR’s.  The opposite actually.

That's fair - but in terms of skill level for actual football, they were miles ahead of C-Henderson, should have been clearer on that.     Henderson couldn't even assimilate a college playbook well.    They were far more NFL-ready guys with good ceilings than Henderson - who was ALL projection and lowest-floor possible.

[germ-x]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

On that count, I'd disagree on the premise that lack of certainty means you can't play the Board to sequence picks.   Board projection is what teams do all the time to maximize their draft return.   Elway's team just isn't very good at this at all.    It does introduce risk you won't get "your guy" - which is why I'd point out the importance of not getting attached to just 1 guy.   On that count, I'm encouraged that Elway didn't just zero in on Chark, or on Ronald Jones.   Well done in that regard, Elway was prepared to veer off and get a different guy later (Freeman).  

As for Gallup's ADP - the thing is, you do have to adjust on the fly to how the board is moving.   3.99 is where we'd like to have him, but once Chark/Kirk went, you knew he was going sooner than 3.99.  So you take him 3.71.   If you are evaluating the big board and tiering player talent, you can see it coming.  It's when teams take a guy 2+ rounds early to ensure he doesn't get sniped that big problems start building up - glad to see Elway hasn't gone that route this year.   I'd argue he's done that a lot in the past. 

You’re contradicting yourself now, as a guy that’s been all about taking BPA all offseason.

I mean I have no idea where you had Gallup ranked, but no, you don’t all of a sudden jump a guy 20+ picks because WR’s are coming off the board and he won’t be there at #99 or #106.  That’s how mistakes are made.  That’s when you take your lumps for projecting the board wrong and continue taking BPA.

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, germ-x said:

You’re contradicting yourself now, as a guy that’s been all about taking BPA all offseason.

I mean I have no idea where you had Gallup ranked, but no, you don’t all of a sudden jump a guy 20+ picks because WR’s are coming off the board and he won’t be there at #99 or #106.  That’s how mistakes are made.  That’s when you take your lumps for projecting the board wrong and continue taking BPA.

I've said you go BPA when there's a gap in talent.  Once the gaps are smaller that there's little difference, then it's OK to go by need and positional depth as a tiebreaker.    I've held that by the time you are somewhere in Rd3+, the gaps are usually small enough to justify need-based drafting.  Some years, it's after 60 guys.  Some years, it's 75+.   

But once you are out of elite difference makes, maximizing overall value where you can matters, and that's where positional depth matters - who can you get later if you pass now.   For Round 2, drafting the 25th guy at WR over the 30th guy at CB  at 2.40 makes sense in a vacuum, but not if with the next pick in Rd 3.70, this then gives you WR's who are in the 50's on your list (with the #30 guy),  where going to CB (or T, etc.) is now in the 70's on your board with the #25 WR.  

As for the mocks, it's an exercise in projecting how the draft will fall - but it's not a straight 1-150 rank of who the best player is.     Even if you think a guy is the 60th on your board, if the 48th, 52nd and 54th guy in that position is still on the board undrafted, you can take the risk to wait until 3.99 mock-wise.   That's why I put Gallup at 3.99 in my mock, for example - it's where I think the draft will fall - it's not where I have them on my list.  A mock is not a straight 1-150 rank, because teams don't draft that way.   For sure, you don't reach and spend a pick for a guy if he's in your 80's at 71.   That's dumb.  But not if the guy was in your 60's, and your prediction just was wrong about how much value you could extract.    Mocking big boards by their nature is unpredictable - and thus the reason why you have adjust the draft idea as you go down the list.  

It goes with the territory that projected drafts won't go the way people predict - but that's the part that Elway's team really struggle at.   Why they've reached for guys way ahead of where the big boards have them.