2018 NFL DRAFT DISCUSSION

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

And left guard.

As for Smith and Crowder, the front office needs to figure out exactly what the top end financial number for each gentleman is and then if they want to exceed that, thank them for their time and service to Washington. If you can lock them up now for relatively cheap, then do so.

Smith doesn’t deserve an extension now.  

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Smith doesn’t deserve an extension now.  

Like I said, they need to find out what they are willing to pay for in the next three years based on his three years to date. If they can get under that now before the season starts (and potentially before that bar has to rise), then they should do so.

I suspect, however, that Smith and his team are playing the "bet on our guy" strategy unless blown away with an offer. Unlike with Cousins, this is highly risky due to the bigger chance of injury to Preston.

[lavar703]

So we’re just going let everybody walk now? Lol

[Woz]

Just now, lavar703 said:

So we’re just going let everybody walk now? Lol

No. You need to be cold-hearted and determine what the line is between value on the team and value as a compensatory pick.

This is how you win the draft game. Yes, you need to scout players correctly, but understanding that sometimes letting a player go to a big contract somewhere else is for the best. No, it isn't always that case (we obviously had one scenario recently where it didn't hold), but successful teams draft with the intention of allowing "the next man" up fill the void.

Every team starts with seven draft picks every given year. If you assume that half of all draft picks will essentially fail, having more shots gives you a better chance of finding the successes. There are only a handful of ways to get more picks: trade down for picks in the current draft, trade players for picks in the current draft, trade picks in the current draft for picks in a following draft, trade players for picks in a following draft, or getting compensatory picks.

All of these methods require sacrifice. It also requires planning and forethought. If you look at it, the Redskins did okay at this in this draft:

• Ty Nsekhe is going to be a free agent and will turn 33 in the season. He is primarily the team's swing tackle, but barring him taking a very cheap contract, he won't stay in Washington. Thus, the Redskins drafted Geron Christian. Now, we have no idea if Christian can be a good swing tackle, but it was the right plan.
• Likewise, Jamison Crowder is also up for a new deal. The Redskins have a fair amount of money invested in the wide receiving corps (and may have to pay more if Josh Doctson breaks out like they hope). Does it make sense to shell out a big deal for a slot receiver? Maybe, but they hedged their bets and got Trey Quinn.
• Preston Smith was the one potential departure that they don't really have a built in replacement for. They could have gone with Marcus Davenport or Tremaine Edwards at 13, but chose Da'Ron Payne (I'm not faulting that decisions, just noting it). Perhaps they believe Ryan Anderson makes a substantial leap forward this season. However, this is one position where barring Anderson's takeoff, they don't really have an forward plan. Unfortunate, but sometimes you have to make compromises at positions.
• Likewise, left guard is a massive hole and they don't really have a solution in house from where I sit right now. Maybe someone breaks through.

So, the Redskins need to look at their 2019 free agent class and say "which of these guys do we want to keep? at what price is too much?" and look at potential replacements for those players in the 2019 free agency class of other teams. THEN, they need to do the exact same thing for the 2020 class, and target the replacements for those players in the 2019 draft.

If a draft pick succeeds and is willing to sign at a value below the "walk" line, hey, that's great! You got talent below where you thought their market value lies. Always try for that. A successful team should plan to have a replacement in house so that the team isn't forced to sign a guy above what they want to pay.

Will teams make mistakes in the evaluation of their own players, other free agents, and draftees? Absolutely. That's the risk. Plus there's the unplanned risks of injuries (Kyshoen Jarrett was going to be an absolute stud for us ... and then suffered significant nerve damage and had to retire after one year). There's little you can do to prevent those. However, you can have in house replacements for guys you know are leaving in a year or two.

[Slappy Mc]

18 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

So we’re just going let everybody walk now? Lol

You want to keep the mediocre players from a mediocre team? 

 

[lavar703]

It’s a great idea if you’re a consistently good team. We aren’t. 

[lavar703]

Just now, Slappy Mc said:

You want to keep the mediocre players from a mediocre team? 

 

I don’t consider Crowder and Smith mediocre. Otherwise I wouldn’t care. 

[Woz]

Just now, lavar703 said:

It’s a great idea if you’re a consistently good team. We aren’t. 

It's the only way you can become a consistently good team.

[Woz]

Just now, lavar703 said:

I don’t consider Crowder and Smith mediocre. Otherwise I wouldn’t care. 

Keep them if you can get them below what you view the market to be compared to the replacement you (hopefully) have on your roster.
Let them go if they exceed that value.

It's cold and calculating but it's the only way to build the roster for the long haul.

[Slappy Mc]

2 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I don’t consider Crowder and Smith mediocre. Otherwise I wouldn’t care. 

Neither player are stars by any means. They are serviceable, but nothing special.

[lavar703]

Just now, Slappy Mc said:

Neither player are stars by any means. They are serviceable, but nothing special.

Sure, they aren’t stars but neither was Paul Richardson and we just paid him handsomely. Crowder is arguably the better player. The only reason I’d be okay with letting Smith go is due to the drafting or Ryan Anderson. 

[Slappy Mc]

1 minute ago, lavar703 said:

Sure, they aren’t stars but neither was Paul Richardson and we just paid him handsomely. Crowder is arguably the better player. The only reason I’d be okay with letting Smith go is due to the drafting or Ryan Anderson. 

Different position. Slot receivers (besides Landry) don’t get paid like outside receivers. Richardson could absolutely flame out, but he could be a star. He has never had a good QB. (I know. I know.) Russell Wilson is a far better athlete than QB. Alex Smith is easily a better QB than Russell.

Preston has to get double digit sacks or you let em go. Period.

[HTTRDynasty]

9 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I think he’s a lot better than you and Knight give him credit for. We’ve had no NT whatsoever and until Allen got here our DE were scrubs. I’m willing to bet he has double digit sacks this year.

He and Kerrigans careers started off very similar so I don’t understand the constant trashing of Smith? He’s a second round pick that has 20 sacks in three years. Kerrigan had 4 more to start his career and he was the 16th overall pick. 

And has been able to rush against RTs his whole career.

[HTTRDynasty]

22 minutes ago, Woz said:

• Likewise, Jamison Crowder is also up for a new deal. The Redskins have a fair amount of money invested in the wide receiving corps (and may have to pay more if Josh Doctson breaks out like they hope). Does it make sense to shell out a big deal for a slot receiver? Maybe, but they hedged their bets and got Trey Quinn.

 

Good post.  Just wanted to correct you on this point though.  The Redskins actually have the least amount of money invested in the WR corps out of the entire league for the 2018 season.

[HTTRDynasty]

We do have the 2nd most amount of money invested in the TE position though (after the Patriots).