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The Massacre at Father Anthony's Chapel - D3 starts Sunday @ 10am EST


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1 hour ago, bcb1213 said:

i probably should have mentioned this earlier.  Whoever our cannibal is, please don't use your power if you have a choice.  The numbers aren't in a good percentage to use your ability

I think I disagree

First of all, we don't know what the ratio is. It could be 7-2 or it could be 8-1.

In the 7-2 scenario, if the cannibal DOESN'T kill, then we have just 4 tries to lynch them both (and the tries can be manipulated by the mafia votes). However, if the cannibal DOES kill, then we have 5 tries (3 lynches, 2 kills).

In the 8-1 scenario, if the cannibal doesn't kill, then we still have 4 tries to lynch the final mafia. And by killing, we still have 5 tries (3 lynches, 2 kills)

The math says to roll the dice.

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Here's a wild strategy theory.

Once/if, the cannibal vig kills a mafia, SHOULD they out it?

 

It would clarify the ratio, plus it would allow the scumhunting to be more effective.

Even if it results in them being killed that night, then it would allow the roleblocker and the gunsmith to be able to act WAY more effectively.

 

*note - they obviously should not out themselves if their kills come back civ

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@Tk3

 

Roles:

The Cannibal Couple (Mafia Goons w/ Factional Chat and Factional Kill)

The Cannibal Serial Killer (1-shot NK immune, 1-shot RB immune) 

The Starving Faithful (Cannibal Vigilante) - A devout follower of Father, will kill to protect his fellow believers but definitely doesn't want that meat to just go to waste.

Father Anthony (Roleblocker) - Prevents someone each night from making any moves.

Doc Hopkins (Gunsmith) - Checks each night to see if someone has eaten human flesh.

Member of the Congregation (Vanilla Townie)

Member of the Congregation (Vanilla Townie)

Member of the Congregation (Vanilla Townie)

Member of the Congregation (Vanilla Townie)

Member of the Congregation (Vanilla Townie)

Member of the Congregation (Vanilla Townie)

Special Rules: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Donner_Party

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  1. When a Cannibal night-kills someone, they take the body and put it in their larder, resulting in no role/alignment reveal to the town for that kill. The Cannibal who performed the kill learns the role/alignment reveal via their result PM.
     
  2. If a Cannibal night-kills another Cannibal, they take all of the bodies their target had, learning all the role/alignment information their target knew. This will include their target's night-kill target from that same night, if applicable.
     
  3. If more than one Cannibal night-kills the same target, they will all learn the target's role/alignment information. They will not learn that their target was killed multiple times.
     
  4. If two Cannibals night-kill eachother, and are not in turn night-killed by yet another Cannibal, their role/alignment information, and that of all the bodies they possessed, is revealed to the town.
     
  5. The Cannibal mechanic has no effect on lynches. The role/alignment of the lynchee is always revealed to the town. If a Cannibal is lynched, the role/alignment information of all their bodies is also revealed.

Starting Ratio Will Be: 9:2:1

 

also, i honestly don't care if the cannibal comes out or not.  It would be incredibly easy for scum to fake that role if they killed him already.  After day one,  all claims have kinda flown the coop

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1 minute ago, bcb1213 said:

Why in God's name would you risk hitting the investigator, especially last night when odds were hitting 22 percent mafia and and 78 percent town, 

Mafia would like those odds.  Tk3 and whicker are high up on my list right now.  Both were very scummy d1 as well.

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9 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Why in God's name would you risk hitting the investigator, especially last night when odds were hitting 22 percent mafia and and 78 percent town, 

 

5 minutes ago, Famous Jameis said:

Mafia would like those odds.  Tk3 and whicker are high up on my list right now.  Both were very scummy d1 as well.

It's simple math. Let's be conservative and say the ratio is 7:2

Lynches = 22.2% chance of killing mafia (2 out of 9)
Vig Hit = 25.0% chance of killing mafia (2 out of 8 lynches - because he only has 8 options)
Mafia Hit = 0.0% chance of killing mafia

NOT using the Vig Hits extends the game. Which in turn gives mafia more hits over the course of more nights.

Why take away our HIGHEST chance at success? Why maximize the amount of mafia hits?

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8 minutes ago, Famous Jameis said:

Mafia would like those odds.  Tk3 and whicker are high up on my list right now.  Both were very scummy d1 as well.

Why would mafia like those odds?

Mafia hits are 100% safe for them.
Lynches they have a chance to control their fate by influencing the vote.

The ONLY thing that is completely out of their control and can end in their death are the power moves of the civs.

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5 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Why would mafia like those odds?

Mafia hits are 100% safe for them.
Lynches they have a chance to control their fate by influencing the vote.

The ONLY thing that is completely out of their control and can end in their death are the power moves of the civs.

At the same time shooting blind is just plain stupid.  you have a far greater chance to hit civ or a power civ, then you do mafia.  

Now if the vig has a great read or someone has some info then yeah go for it.  But just shooting in the dark is not the best right now.  If it's 7-2 and we miss-lynch, mafia hits civ, and vig hits civ then we are down to 4-2. A miss-lynch there and it won't be good for town

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