Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

[Danger]

Just now, Breesus mode said:

WRONG

Oh?

[bucsfan333]

Relevant.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Danger said:

Good thing their draft last year was so good. They REALLY need a QB though.

 

1 hour ago, Breesus mode said:

WRONG

 

1 hour ago, Danger said:

Oh?

I think the point is that Brees likely has 2, maybe 3 more years left in the tank.  The whole idea about getting QB is that this class was deep enough, NO might want to dip their toe in the water for QB if the right opportunity presented itself.     Let's face it, most years, a team in their late 20's isn't getting a good QB prospect for the value (no-doubt first round QB's are going way earlier).   

I don't like using history on 3-4 failed DE's as the reason to knock the NO trade.   I knock it because Davenport is far from a polished product, with a safe floor.   I don't mind taking a shot on a guy with a 1st if he's got elite ceiling and some floor, I don't spend 2 firsts unless it's a guy with true franchise QB ceiling and a reasonable floor, or an elite non-QB player I have no doubts on.   I don't know how anyone could say Davenport falls in that latter category.

[Danger]

Brees will play this year and 2019. Saints don't have a 1st round pick until 2020, so good luck getting a decent QB prospect.

[Broncofan]

32 minutes ago, Danger said:

Brees will play this year and 2019. Saints don't have a 1st round pick until 2020, so good luck getting a decent QB prospect.

That's assuming Brees is done after 2019.   That's a top 5 OL with a topflight running game.  Brees is actually more of a caretaker, unless NO gets behind.  His 536 attempts were the lowest since 2009 - and that's only because he played 15 games (514).  536 is the lowest since he was playing for San Diego.    The way the game is nowadays, with how a pocket passer is protected, he can play as long as his skills allow him to and he still wants to do the grind of training and game prep.   

Skill-wise, there's zero decline with Brees' play.    Highest percentage of completions, highest QBR, and the eye test backs it up - NO's O is just way more complete now, they don't need him to be the alpha all the time.  Ironicially, this is a big part to prolonging his career.   We saw it with Elway and DEN - he just decided to leave on top after back-to-back SB's.

The contract Brees signed was for 2 years.   But nothing in Brees' play says he won't actually keep playing longer.  

Paying up the extra 1st is a big price for Davenport.  I'm NOT a fan.   But from the perspective on Brees, as long as he wants to play, man, it's hard to know when that train stops running.   There's no sign right now it's happening soon.

Edited May 2, 2018 by Broncofan

[Iamcanadian]

I am not much for ranking drafts right after they are done. It is all supposition based on practically nothing except someone perception of how they think players were ranked, when in fact, we have no idea how other teams viewed these prospects except tidbits from ex scouts on NFL.com and last I looked they are exactly that, ex scouts who nobody wants to hire any longer at their former profession and Mayock who isn't perfect either.

I prefer to wait a couple of years to really decide who the winners and losers are!!!

[goldfishwars]

18 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

I am not much for ranking drafts right after they are done. It is all supposition based on practically nothing except someone perception of how they think players were ranked, when in fact, we have no idea how other teams viewed these prospects except tidbits from ex scouts on NFL.com and last I looked they are exactly that, ex scouts who nobody wants to hire any longer at their former profession and Mayock who isn't perfect either.

I prefer to wait a couple of years to really decide who the winners and losers are!!!

No it's best to do it right after the draft. 

[onejayhawk]

I agree. Benchmark the starting point.

J

[goldfishwars]

28. Detroit Lions

Pre-Draft Needs:

DE, TE, CB, RB, OL

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 20

2. 51

3. 82

4. 117

5. 153

7. 237

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 20. Frank Ragnow  [ C ] Arkansas

2. 43. Kerryon Johnson  [ RB ] Auburn

3. 82. Tracy Walker  [ S ] Louisiana

4. 114. Da'Shawn Hand  [ DE ] Alabama

5. 153. Tyrell Crosby  [ OT ] Oregon

7. 237. Nick Bawden  [ FB ] San Diego State

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

I really liked the Frank Ragnow pick, he’s got some Alex Mack to his game and was a little left out of the mix for a while due to the injury. It also fits a need on the interior, i guess they can decide which one out of him and Graham Glasgow play center or guard. He didn’t give up a single sack during his time at Arkansas and absolutely erased Da’Ron Payne in the Alabama match up. Hopefully his surgically repaired ankle does't slow down his progress. Elsewhere there are players who should be contributors, who fit the schemes they want to run on both sides of the ball. It’s functional, at best. Sometimes those turn out to be the best drafts. 

Worst Thing About This Draft:

It’s a very Patriots-esque kind of draft, very little flash and even a leftfield safety pick in round 3. Many analysts were expecting an attacking edge rusher somewhere in the draft, but that’s not been Patricia’s MO during his tenure with the Patriots. He likes guys who can hold the point first and foremost. Many others expected at least an attempt to replace Eric Ebron at tight end, but it looks like they’ll find their answer there from the in-house options available. Despite only having six picks, there was no real attempt to create further value. In fact they actually traded up to take Kerryon Johnson when many thought they were coming up for the superior talent in Derrius Guice. I didn't really get it with Johnson, he drew some pretty wildly different takes as a prospect. He was a bigger back who ran with patience and was very good in pass protection. But he didn't catch the ball very often and has a couple of major shoulder surgeries to be at least aware of. 

Late Round Gem:

I’ll say surprise faller Tyrell Crosby can fit the bill here. I was a little lower on him than some, but 5^th round is a cheap price to pay for what many see as someone who can start in the NFL at guard or tackle. He's a decent run blocker, but has a few issues with more nimble pass-rushers at Oregon. He’ll provide decent depth in Detroit at the very least. 

What Else?

Tracy Walker was the big WTF pick in the 3^rd, he was just off my radar. From what I’ve heard he’s a longer, leaner safety with some range to him, perhaps he's Patricia's Devin McCourty. Da’Shawn Hand was a big-time recruit to Alabama and never fulfilled his promise there. He fits the inside/out edge players that Patricia has worked with in the past, but I think he’s a role player at best at the next level. Unless he decides now is the time to fulfil that early promise. Nick Bawden was Rashaad Penny's lead blocker and a former high school quarterback. He's drawn some comparisons to John Kuhn, so that's pretty cool as full backs go. I think. 

[Iamcanadian]

24 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

28. Detroit Lions

Pre-Draft Needs:

DE, TE, CB, RB, OL

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 20

2. 51

3. 82

4. 117

5. 153

7. 237

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 20. Frank Ragnow  [ C ] Arkansas

2. 43. Kerryon Johnson  [ RB ] Auburn

3. 82. Tracy Walker  [ S ] Louisiana

4. 114. Da'Shawn Hand  [ DE ] Alabama

5. 153. Tyrell Crosby  [ OT ] Oregon

7. 237. Nick Bawden  [ FB ] San Diego State

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

I really liked the Frank Ragnow pick, he’s got some Alex Mack to his game and was a little left out of the mix for a while due to the injury. It also fits a need on the interior, i guess they can decide which one out of him and Graham Glasgow play center or guard. He didn’t give up a single sack during his time at Arkansas and absolutely erased Da’Ron Payne in the Alabama match up. Hopefully his surgically repaired ankle does't slow down his progress. Elsewhere there are players who should be contributors, who fit the schemes they want to run on both sides of the ball. It’s functional, at best. Sometimes those turn out to be the best drafts. 

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I like Ragnow, he really moved up the rankings during the last few weeks and should be an improvement for the OL

.

Worst Thing About This Draft:

It’s a very Patriots-esque kind of draft, very little flash and even a leftfield safety pick in round 3. Many analysts were expecting an attacking edge rusher somewhere in the draft, but that’s not been Patricia’s MO during his tenure with the Patriots. He likes guys who can hold the point first and foremost. Many others expected at least an attempt to replace Eric Ebron at tight end, but it looks like they’ll find their answer there from the in-house options available. Despite only having six picks, there was no real attempt to create further value. In fact they actually traded up to take Kerryon Johnson when many thought they were coming up for the superior talent in Derrius Guice. I didn't really get it with Johnson, he drew some pretty wildly different takes as a prospect. He was a bigger back who ran with patience and was very good in pass protection. But he didn't catch the ball very often and has a couple of major shoulder surgeries to be at least aware of. 

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I didn't like the Johnson pick, way overrated IMO. Goes down far too easy for my liking!

Late Round Gem:

I’ll say surprise faller Tyrell Crosby can fit the bill here. I was a little lower on him than some, but 5^th round is a cheap price to pay for what many see as someone who can start in the NFL at guard or tackle. He's a decent run blocker, but has a few issues with more nimble pass-rushers at Oregon. He’ll provide decent depth in Detroit at the very least. 

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Crosby fell because of too many concussions and is a high risk prospect, but in the 5th, it was probably worth the risk!

What Else?

Tracy Walker was the big WTF pick in the 3^rd, he was just off my radar. From what I’ve heard he’s a longer, leaner safety with some range to him, perhaps he's Patricia's Devin McCourty. Da’Shawn Hand was a big-time recruit to Alabama and never fulfilled his promise there. He fits the inside/out edge players that Patricia has worked with in the past, but I think he’s a role player at best at the next level. Unless he decides now is the time to fulfil that early promise. Nick Bawden was Rashaad Penny's lead blocker and a former high school quarterback. He's drawn some comparisons to John Kuhn, so that's pretty cool as full backs go. I think. 

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Detroit has in the past, not been too lucky with this type of pick, but mabe they will strike it rich this team, at least I hope so!

 

IMo, a very, very average draft and if Johnson does not pan out, it could be a disaster in the making!

[Iamcanadian]

11 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

29. Houston Texans

Pre-Draft Needs:

OL, TE, DB, WR

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

3. 68

3. 80

3. 98

4. 103

6. 177

6. 211

6. 214

7. 222

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

3. 68. Justin Reid [ S ] Stanford

3. 80. Martinas Rankin  [ OT ] Mississippi State

3. 98. Jordan Akins  [ TE ] UCF

4. 103. Keke Coutee  [ WR ] Texas Tech

6. 177. Duke Ejiofor  [ DE ] Wake Forest

6. 211. Jordan Thomas  [ TE ] Mississippi State

6. 214. Peter Kalambayi  [ LB ] Stanford

7. 222. Jermaine Kelly  [ CB ] San Jose State

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

Again, another team who’ll be happy with what they did last year and this year they have to take their medicine to a degree. Justin Reid was nice value at 68 after briefly flirting with 1^st round consideration early in the process, he has versatility at both safety spots. Rarely out of position, he’s a quicker twitch athlete than his brother and has experience in the slot and deep middle.  Martinas Rankin is a decent attempt to shore up a troublesome tackle spot, although many see his future inside. He’s a good run blocker and moves well generally, but had some issues with speed around the edge in the last year. They also threw a couple of picks at a tight end position they just haven’t been able to nail down, so they’ve done they everything they can.

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It was about the best you could expect with what assets they had left.

Worst Thing About This Draft:

A lot of holes on roster that was patched by a brief stretch of brilliance from Deshaun Watson last year. With no 1^st or 2^nd, they were never going to be filled in the draft after a quiet free agency period.  That’s the main reflection of their ranking here, rather than the players they took, which you can argue were a decent attempt to do just that. The offensive line and corner cupboard still looks a little understocked.

Late Round Gem:

Duke Ejiofor – Labrum surgery dropped him a couple of rounds, but there’s some stuff to like about him. He’s not a juiced up pass-rusher, but he’s good hand fighter and has some natural power on the edge.

What Else?

The players they took at troublesome spots were fine, but perhaps not the very best available. Joe Noteboom or Orlando Brown were taken after Rankin and Ian Thomas and Chris Herndon might have been better options than Jordan Akins. Akins is an oversized slot receiver with some athleticism to like, but that’s offset a little by the fact he’s already 26 years old. He needs to come in ready to play. Keke Coutee gives them an explosive element out of the slot, but was drafted ahead of better receivers. Houston look determined to field a consistent deep thread and he has the speed to give them that. The last three picks might have to find their way on special teams to get a look. Jordan Thomas is the most intriguing, a talented athlete and former basketball player. He’s played a number of spots in football, including offensive tackle which might be his best option moving forward.

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Almost always, 5th to 7th rounders are drafted to play ST's and if you are in that talent range and cannot play ST's, you will not get drafted!!! So appraising late round picks is beyond our ability as we have zero knowledge on whether or not a prospect can or cannot play ST's.

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I also believe Rankin is a far better prospect than either Noteboom or Brown.

 

 

[Iamcanadian]

23 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

32. New Orleans Saints

Pre-Draft Needs:

TE, LB, EDGE, QB

 

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 27

3. 91

4. 127

5. 147

5. 164

6. 189

6. 201

7. 245

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 14. Marcus Davenport [ DE ] UTSA

3. 91. Tre'Quan Smith [ WR ] UCF

4. 127. Rick Leonard [ OT ] Florida State

5. 164. Natrell Jamerson [ S ] Wisconsin

6. 189. Kamrin Moore [ CB ] Boston College

6. 201. Boston Scott [ RB ] Louisiana Tech

7. 245. Will Clapp [ C ] LSU

No 1^st round pick in 2019

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

I guess it’s good that the front office identified something they desperately needed and did whatever it took to get it. They must have talked about it all off-season. They obviously didn’t think the pass-rush crop after Davenport was worth waiting for and that it was their last chance to fill a troublesome spot on their roster. And, they obviously really must have liked the player, too. He’s a naturally strong, lengthy ball of clay on the edge who makes the most of his tall frame to overwhelm blockers with a deadly combination of quickness and power. There’s plenty to like. Perhaps they felt they were a pass rusher away from getting to the promise land last year and to hell with everything else. Maybe they are right, recent success suggests they seem to know what they’re doing.

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I think it was a brilliant move, Davenport has tremendous upside and is just a bit raw now, but within a year or 2, could be a real game changer which all contenders seek!

Worst Thing About This Draft:

There was a genuinely thrilling moment during the draft coverage when it was announced the Saints were coming all the way up from 27. Who was this mystery man they’re giving up next year’s 1^st round pick for? It’s got to be a quarterback right? You don’t give up 1^st round picks for non quarterbacks. It’s got to be Lamar Jackson, right? All the other big quarterbacks are off the board. We’re going to have a decade of pure offensive magic. The Saints love him, Sean Payton loves him. They said so. Imagine Lamar Jackson in a Sean Payton offense.

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It is not at all unusual for a team to trade a future #1 for a round 1 player this year. A future #1 only carries a round 2 grade as the team gets the use and added experience by drafting a player this year. QB's only come into play if you think you are trading a possible top 5 pick.

So, giving up next year’s 1 for a toolsy pass-rusher most like, but most feel needs some time to flourish, is a strange move and I like Davenport. Because on the one hand, it’s a ‘win now, this is the guy needed to get over the hump before Drew dies of old age’ decision. And, on the other, well, the kid probably needs a bit of time. He is good, he could be a real bully on the edge. The Saints have long had a pretty casual indifference for the value of draft picks and sometimes that leads them to the kind of all-time draft hauls they had last year and sometimes it ends up looking a little like this. Some of the needs they were expected to address, went unlooked at.

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Again, I have to disagree, Davenport has top 10 potential within a year or 2 and like I pointed out, nest year's first is only worth a 2nd rounder on the trade chart and from where the Saints usually draft, getting a prospect with that much upside could easily turn out to be a complete steal for the Saints!

Late Round Gem:

Tiny Boston Scott (and he is tiny) was somewhat of a PFF darling. He’s got a bit of a Darren Sproles-ish, satellite back promise to his game and the New Orleans offense is a pretty great landing spot for anyone who has that skill-set. His size, or lack of, could be the main stumbling block to finding sustained success in the NFL.

What Else?

I liked Tre’Quan Smith, but maybe not 3^rd round liked him, compared to where some of these other receivers landed. He’s savvy, he’ll work the seams as the Saints like their receivers to do, in a similar way to Willie Snead did. Rick Leonard was playing defensive end not too long ago and is only really a recent convert to tackle. It might be a while before that pick pays some dividends, although the athleticism is intriguing. I know little about the next two DB picks in Natrell Jamerson and Kamrin Moore. Perhaps I would think more highly of the draft as a whole if I did. Jamerson did a reverse Rick Leonard, going from offense to DB last year at Wisconsin and had a nice set of pro-day results. Moore feels like a special teams pick. Will Clapp was okay at LSU and has some versatility at a few spots, he feels like a swing guy at the next level.

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Just my opinion, but I think by now, I will not question Sean Payton's judgment on his choice of WR's and where they are worth drafting.

 

 

Edited May 2, 2018 by Iamcanadian

[goldfishwars]

27. Oakland Raiders

Pre-Draft Needs:

LB, DL, CB, WR, OL

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 10

2. 41

3. 75

4. 110

5. 159

5. 173

6. 185

6. 212

6. 216

6. 217

7. 228

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 15. Kolton Miller  [ OT ] UCLA

2. 57. P. J. Hall  [ DT ] Sam Houston State

3. 65. Brandon Parker  [ OT ] North Carolina A&T

3. 87. Arden Key  [ DE ] LSU

4. 110. Nick Nelson  [ CB ] Wisconsin

5. 140. Maurice Hurst  [ DT ] Michigan

5. 173. Johnny Townsend  [ P ] Florida

6. 216. Azeem Victor  [ LB ] Washington

7. 228. Marcell Ateman  [ WR ] Oklahoma State

Additional Pick-up: Martavis Bryant [ WR ] in a trade from Pittsburgh

Best Thing About This Draft:

I love this draft man, it's absolutely hilarious and entertained me greatly over the three days. It could be amazing, it could be terrible. I liked the pick-up of Martavis Bryant, even though he comes with his own personality problems (more the merrier, eh?). The entertainment value was high and I probably liked the 5^th round dart throw at Maurice Hurt the most. Even if he appears to have a pretty significant heart related concern. People tried to make out it was like the Star Lotulelei situation a few years back, but five rounds of draft picks between them now suggests otherwise. He’s absolutely a first round talent and even if this condition means he isn't able to forge an NFL career, giving up a 5^th rounder to find out is nothing to worry about.

Worst Thing About This Draft:

Man, you've give it them for taking some shots here, but this is one powder keg of a draft haul. I don't know how you cut your punter to send a message about trouble makers and then promptly drafted Arden Key and trade for Martavis Bryant, but here we are. I mean, nearly every selection is loaded with high bust potential, with the exception of a couple of dart throws on falling prospects.There were plenty of rumors that Kolton Miller was going to be the pick in the first round and that Tom Cable had infiltrated the brain trust and was driving the That’s a funky offensive line situation there, a lot of mixed skill-sets and Miller has some significant strength and technique issues to work through. They were heavily linked with the draft’s best linebackers pre-draft, but ended up with a 6^th round selection on a player with several of his own off-field incidents. Azeem Victor is a decent downhill hitter, but he’s had weight issues and struggles in space. This isn’t the Roquan Smith selection we were promised.

Late Round Gem:

Marcell Ateman – Outside of Maurice Hurst, Oakland have thrown a number of darts at the receiver position after Michael Crabtree’s departure. Whilst I’m not Ateman’s biggest fan after a pretty disappointing week in Mobile, he was very productive at Oklahome State and he's got some red zone receiver qualities to his game. A 7^th round pick is a thrifty piece of business in return that's for sure. I like him better than Jaleel Scott, who went in the 4^th round to Oakland and they have similar games.

What Else?

PJ Hall had a monster pro day, throwing up linebacker numbers as a 300 pound defensive lineman. It’s a tiny programme at Sam Houston State, so there’ll be some acclimatising to do and there’s some surprise he went ahead of more vaunted prospects in BJ Hill and Nathan Shepherd. Brandon Parker is a hugely proportioned right tackle, again from a tiny school which may or may not prevent him from shining early. This feels like a pick for next year with some lower-ceilinged pro-ready tackles coming off the board after his selection.

A 3^rd for Arden Key feels a little rich, despite his big-time potential as a pure pass rusher. There’s some serious, serious concerns about his well-being off the field. But, if they can get him back to where it was all headed in 2016, then fantastic. That feels like a long shot right now. I liked the Nick Nelson pick, the injury probably dropped him a little. But when he’s back healthy he’s got a chance to play and they might need him to right away after looking at who’s slotted to start right now. The Raiders were always going to take a punter and Michael Townsend was probably a very smaller tier below Dickson and Scott, but still considered a very draftable prospect at the position.

[RaidersAreOne]

Good write up for the Raiders.

I won't disagree with much. Enormous bust potential, with absolutely incredible dividends if things work out. I for one like the "risky" moves of getting Hurst, Key and aqcuiring Bryant because quite simply they make us a better team right now. Our biggest issues were the Tackle position and pass-rush. Well we went and got the T with the best measurables and potential (even if it was a reach), another solid T project, two dominant interior rushers and a very promising OLB who was once regarded as a top 5 lock. People overlook Nick Nelson who was a solid 2nd rounder to most before a minor operation had him slide. I can definitely see him being our starting slot CB. 

All in all, 5 years from now we will either say this is a draft that took us the next step into contender territory, or that we had one of the most disappointing draft classes in recent memory.

I for one will enjoy the ride! 

[SBLIII]

Love this thread. Thanks for the work.