2019 NFL draft where the jags pick at 32;) (Update: pick at 7)

[DuvalsKing]

 

[Tugboat]

11 hours ago, DuvalsKing said:

 

Ughhhh.  I want no part of a bonkers bidding war for these couple QBs this year.

Hebert going back doesn't really concern me in that i wasn't very high on him to begin with.  But it does concern me a little bit in what it might do to the rest of the QB market if we're dead set on being part of the frenzy.  

Since Herbert has announced he's staying in school though (which seems like a terrible decision for his future tbh), can already feel things shifting and shuffling and people starting to talk themselves even more and more into guys like Lock, Jones, Grier as potentially higher and higher 1st rounders instead.

Got people like Alfie out there beating the "QB fear is actually bad" war drum, going off on statistics about how the 1st round is the only place to find a QB.  Which has some validity, but also seems to be ignoring that just drafting a guy in the 1st round doesn't inherently imbue them with the qualities of a good QB, or worthy of being selected there.  A Day2 flyer drafted in the 1st round is still just a 2nd/3rd round flyer...with a bigger pricetag.  The prospect is the prospect.  Wherever you draft them has little bearing on how good they are.  Drafting an EJ Manuel or Christian Ponder in the 1st round didn't magically make it into a good decision or make them into franchise guys.  It was just a desperate team doing the opposite of QB fear...and missing out on some really good contributing pieces because they were dying for a QB and got scared of not having a guy.

 

 

I mean, maybe it's tired...but i'm gonna keep beating that drum just as hard as so many others seem to with this whole constant fretting over draft position and this apparently desperate need to get to the very top of the heap at all costs and draft a guy in the 1st round or we're doomed forever.

I feel like this whole Tannehill thing should really just serve as a warning post on this whole drive to push various project QBs up the board because they might be something.  They also might be a total bust, or they might also just turn out like a...Ryan Tannehill, who is just good enough to avoid being replaced for half a dozen years+ and basically handcuffs a franchise in limbo.  That's what happens when you pay a big premium to draft a QB that high.  If they're not absolutely horrendous, you're committed to them.  Your walkaway threshold gets so much higher.

 

Frankly, if Tannehill does indeed hit the FA market...i'd be all for trying to bring him in for a while, grabbing a guy Day2 and just avoiding what is shaping up to be a potentially stupid feeding frenzy for basically Haskins...and a couple Day2/Late 1st type "projects" imo like Lock and Jones who look poised to end up sliding all the way up into the teens.  If he can stay healthy, i think you can win with him and this defense.  If not...maybe your Day2 guy shows something.  If not that either...you're back in the QB draft market for 2020.  What's so catastrophic about that?

[Tugboat]

On 23/12/2018 at 8:17 PM, .Buzz said:

I've heard some Keenum comps and I sort of see it. Is there something that you see in him that makes you think he'll be better than that?

I will say, I love that guys attitude on the field. Like that fire in a QB. 

Lock's upside draws me in after Haskins/Herbert. I know we've been jaded by a couple prototypical looking guys like Lock before but I just feel like he presents the best upside of the next tier.

I do think the sort of "second wave" of QB options breaks down into two different streams.  There's the sorta "lower ceiling" projected "Backup with WCO/Game Manager upside" types...and then you've got the two "Toolsy Upside" project guys (Lock, Jones).

I'm still kinda off-beat with Grier seemingly getting so much more love than others in that former category though.

Watching Grier, i don't think a Keenum comp is entirely unfair.  Though obviously if you're drafting him high Day2, you're still hoping for more of a "peak Keenum" at an earlier point in his career, and more consistently than actual Keenum tends to deliver.  But a lot of the limitations are similar.  Though, the Keenum comp just kinda seems to be the flavour of the day Comp for that "type".  Grier more than others i think may deserve a bit of that "system QB" stigma coming out of WV, like Keenum had as a prospect.  But i think you'd also be fair in saying you're looking for a sort of Andy Dalton/Alex Smith et al type realistic "upside".

Same goes for the other two guys i see as being in a cluster with Grier though.  Clayton Thorson and Brett Rypien.  I think all three profile pretty similarly overall.  They've all got good experience and project as potentially good West Coast Offense type QBs who can manage a game, get the ball into the hands of playmakers, make good decisions and protect the football.  But they're also all guys who lack exceptional or dynamic tools, and project as QBs who will have to rely on scheme, anticipation, and talent around them.  They're also all guys who are going to have their bread and butter in the short-intermediate passing game, getting the ball out quickly and kinda lack the raw cannon arms to be anything more than "touch" or "spot" throwers with deep shots.  None of them are going to nail a deep out on a frozen rope in the NFL.

As far as those 3 "Senior Game Manager" types go:

-Grier:  I guess is probably the most "athletic" of the three.  But they're all what i'd call "functionally mobile" pocket passers and not much more.  You're not going to be out there running a bunch of designed runs or read-option stuff with any of them, and i don't see Grier as a very good throw on the move guy.  It doesn't sway me much.  He's also the least experienced of the three in terms of high level starts.  Having jumped around a bit might help with familiarity in different concepts, but i lean toward a guy who a school has really built a program around for more years in that "type" of QB.  Seems to be the biggest beneficiary of "scheme" flattery to me, and is the least impressive to me when it comes to pushing the ball further down the field.

-Thorson:  Probably the least "athletic" of the three.  Heightens my respect for his ability to maneuver in (and escape) a pocket that has basically been persistently collapsing around him for 4 years behind a regularly overmatched OLine.  He might have the best pocket feel of the three despite the least natural athleticism.  He also has more of the prototypical size.  Some issues there with consistency of ball placement and touch crop up, along with the aforementioned issues when asked to really drive balls deep...but he generally gets a lot out of a little, and seems at least on par with Grier as a "leader" from an armchair and what i've read and heard about him.  To me, he seems to have the highest potential "upside" of the three.

-Rypien:  Has the least desirable stature and build.  But man he can get the ball out quickly, with good looking velocity in that intermediate range at least.  Ball consistently comes out with that natural tight spiral too.  Has some of the prettiest tape of the bunch in general really.  Doesn't have that howitzer of an arm, but he consistently drops some absolute dimes on deeper "spot" throws.  Isn't afraid of tight windows underneath and has plenty of tape demonstrating he's got the arm to rifle it in there when needed.  Have to kinda worry that his balls seem to hit a bit of a wall deeper downfield...but looks fine in the intermediate range, and he plays in a conference/division where they get some really nasty conditions that he doesn't seem to have trouble getting the ball through.  He's not a Kellen Moore complete noodle-arm repeat.  Really curious on him in particular, to see what sorta numbers come out on his velocity at the combine (assuming he throws).

They're all pretty similar to me in a bit of a cluster though.  I'd actually put Thorson and Rypien ahead of Grier, but it's a cluster of similarly profiling guys who all fit that "backup-WCO starter" mold, that i'd consider fairly similarly.  Wouldn't touch any of them in the 1st round.  If Grier ends up pushed into the 1st round or even higher, it starts to kinda reek of a Christian Ponder situation to me.  But that's the cluster for me.

which leads to...

The Toolsy Upside guys:

Both Lock and Jones seem like worse "quarterbacks" and appreciably less polished football players than the other three right now.  But there are some undeniable "tools" there that give them some more intriguing hypothetical "ceilings".

-Lock:  I've talked a bit about before...It's easy to watch him rifle a ball downfield with velocity and see a potential "prototype starting QB" natural arm talent.  But it's just as easy for me to watch countless snaps of him just skittishly backpedaling under pressure and dumping off an ill-advised fade away prayer ball, or completely predetermining and telegraphing a throw right into opposing hands.  Some of it, maybe even a bunch of it is schematic stuff, but this isn't some raw 1-year starter like Haskins we're talking about.  This isn't a raw "generational tools" guy playing with total scrubs like Allen last year.  This is a guy who has a bunch of years as a starter under his belt, and is still making a bunch of the same mistakes.  Still showing the same flaws.  Still looking like a tease of "upside", dragged down by regular failures in the mundane details snap to snap.  Call me gunshy after the Blaine Gabbert experience, but i just don't feel confident spending a high 1st rounder on another Mizzou kid who "has all the tools", but doesn't handle pressure well, locks on all over the place, showcases arm talent but unreliable ability to use it precisely, and seems like a bit of a questionable "leader of men".  At some point, yeah...absolutely i gamble on the flashes of upside and see if someone can "fix" him outside of that system.  There's a lot to like there too...but it just feels like he's going to end up pushed up the board into a range i'm just not comfortable with on this kind of project.

-Jones:  In a lot of ways, seems like potentially kinda the worst of both worlds.  I can see the appeal...he's a big and tall guy who absolutely looks the part, athletic and very mobile, he's done a lot for that program at Duke and he's a pretty successful college QB.  The flashes are certainly there, and he has a healthy dose of that "it factor".  Seems like a bigtime gamer.  But man...there's just too much Bortles there for me right now.  He's got great "tools" in the sense that he's big and athletic with a decent arm.  But the actual throwing motion is so inconsistent, it just gives me preemptive flashbacks.  His footwork can vary a lot, but more concerning to me, it's the actual upper body and arm motion that seems to range all over the place and into some very Bortlesy territory at its worst.  Not only is the motion kinda ugly and inconsistent like Bortles...but i question the actual velocity and ability to make those bigtime "drive" throws that would really separate him from the more "polished" but less highly regarded quarterbacks in the previous category.  He also seems like a bit of a magnet for taking hits.  No denying his toughness, but at some point...i can't help but wonder if he's just not seeing things well enough, and if durability is going to be a problem long-term on top of everything else.  It's kinda like Bortles as a prospect, in that there are certainly things to like there...and maybe he can be a successful NFL QB...but i just want off this particular ride.  I can't do this again.  Not with a top pick invested again.

 

 

This is a very long post, and i'm sorry.  But i'd rather just dump all this out there in one semi-coherent post and see what it kicks up, instead of trying to haphazardly work all these thoughts together scattered and piecemeal.

[DuvalsKing]

I agree with everything that you said Tug. I think the ideal situation for this team would be to just draft the best available guy at the top of the draft if Haskins is gone. Than if I’m the GM depending on your gut feeling i’d trade back into the bottom of the the first and try to acquire a QB. 

[Jags]

If you were wondering if Dwayne Haskins can learn, improve, and read defenses, then this is the video for you.

 

 

[.Buzz]

Seriously though...

Give me him in Rd 2.

[DuvalsKing]

6 hours ago, Jags said:

If you were wondering if Dwayne Haskins can learn, improve, and read defenses, then this is the video for you.

 

 

I posted this vid a while back.. Haskin is now on the fence about returning to school this offseason is going to be interesting.

[.Buzz]

12 minutes ago, DuvalsKing said:

I posted this vid a while back.. Haskin is now on the fence about returning to school this offseason is going to be interesting.

If he doesn't go things will get even more interesting.

Still on board going QB. I know all don't agree, but there are guys in this class (Lock, D.Jones, maybe Grier) who can be legit starters/possible long term fixes at the position imo). I'm of the opinion to take a shot and hope for the best, not that all agree.

[.Buzz]

Quinnen Williams making it so we only have to trade up to #3. 

[Tugboat]

10 hours ago, .Buzz said:

Seriously though...

Give me him in Rd 2.

I love comments like this, for the irony that DGB was in fact, supposed to be what DGB was supposed to be.  It's such a weird method of description, especially if the guy's career wasn't cut short by injuries or something.

 

But yeah.  I could go for Butler there.  His "good games" are too much to overlook.  That sort of height/wingspan/catch radius, with hands that can be that fluid...and surprising suddenness for such a tall dude.  That's some stuff worth working with.  Gonna need coaching though.  But there do seem to be some real traits to work with there, natural stuff that seems promising...as long as he's not a total head case.  Seems like a willing, if unrefined blocker too, which is always cool and seems like a promising sign in a WR like that.

[Jags]

8 hours ago, .Buzz said:

If he doesn't go things will get even more interesting.

Still on board going QB. I know all don't agree, but there are guys in this class (Lock, D.Jones, maybe Grier) who can be legit starters/possible long term fixes at the position imo). I'm of the opinion to take a shot and hope for the best, not that all agree.

I feel like taking one of those guys means we'll be drafting again in the next 2 to 3 years. 

 

[Adrenaline_Flux]

Updated the thread title. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Hey fellas, who do you guys want to pick with the #2 overall pick? Either you guys move up for Haskins, or we trade our 2nd plus Mullens for Ramsey. Will be looking forward to doing business with you guys in the near future. 

Take care. 

[.Buzz]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

Hey fellas, who do you guys want to pick with the #2 overall pick? Either you guys move up for Haskins, or we trade our 2nd plus Mullens for Ramsey. Will be looking forward to doing business with you guys in the near future. 

Take care. 

You aren't getting Ramsey bud.

Have a nice day.

[Adrenaline_Flux]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

Hey fellas, who do you guys want to pick with the #2 overall pick? Either you guys move up for Haskins, or we trade our 2nd plus Mullens for Ramsey. Will be looking forward to doing business with you guys in the near future. 

Take care. 

Ramsey isn't going anywhere and if he did, it'd take more than that. If we trade up to #2, it'd have to be Haskins if he does declare.