Matt Ryan and Falcons agree to contract extension first 30 million a year QB

[TXsteeler]

1 hour ago, GSUeagles14 said:

whyd you ignoe the most relevant thing in that post. As far as % of salary cap, its essentially the same #. I dont mean this towards you, just everyone saying how much it is... its the same its been for the last 6-7 years really.

It's true that if he resigned a deal for 17.9% of the cap in 2018 he would take up the same thing (on average over the contract, it changes year to year and depends on how the cap increases now vs how it did then) he took up in the first year of his last contract, but he would be taking far more money than he would if they didn't.

I said Rodgers is more expensive not because the money is more %wise but because he is less valuable now.

How many people expect Rodgers to play much past 4 more years? His last contract allowed them to lock up the best QB in his prime, and secure his next contract. This time he isn't in his prime and has some injuries and he doesn't really have a next contract.

[GSUeagles14]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Sure, except that no team has won the SB devoting that much % to QB yet.   Some day it will happen, for sure - it just shows how hard it is when you devote that high % percentage to QB.   It's gotta come from somewhere else.   It's not impossible, but the margin for error is just that much smaller.   

TBH, I don't hate the Ryan contract in a vacuum - it's only an overpay of 3-4M AAV IMO, maybe 5M if you really don't think he's good at all (me, I think he's literally the floor of what you want in a perennial franchise QB).    I don't think Ryan should be obligated to give a discount either.   But it's just the percentage of the team commitment is hard to field a good enough team elsewhere to be a SB winner (and yes, if you lack QB, your road is also just as hard, if not harder).   It's just committing 25M (or 14%) to QB, that creates a path to the SB that's just harder.    The Holy Grail is to get top 10 or top 12 play from rookie level deals (or Brady's play at nearly 40 percent off market value).   Impossible?  No.  Harder?  Undeniably.

theres really not enough of a sample size to draw that kind of conclusion. I think someone else posted its really only been ten years with QBs taking up this much of the cap. a few of those have been won by brady and the pats. i mean, he year denver won manning was taking up 13+% and his play wasnt all that good. Youre telling me another 3-4% is a back breaker even considering the improved qb play youll get out of it.

[TXsteeler]

37 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Oh I know yer not hating, we're just jousting around on a message board.  

I noted your bolded in my initial comments: from an actuarial point of view, your plan is cheaper. Over the Cap did an excellent piece on team building and the low-cost QB is one of the proven strategies. ( see rams and eagles et al) The other strategy was to draft enough low cost talent to try and win WITH a high paid QB and we saw how one very good draft changed the fortunes of the highly compensated Brees + Saints last year.

What I'm hanging my hat on is that AR returns more value when he's on the field than the costs associated with paying him, and that the Packers can draft and develop enough talent to win another SB. 

Here's the write up from OTC and it reflects much of what you and Broncofan have been talking about in this thread

https://overthecap.com/the-two-distinct-roster-construction-strategies-in-the-nfl/

I doubt the Packers end up not resigning him anyways. I think the Franchise tag will be either heavily changed or outlawed in the next CBA because the way it was used against Cousins/how I hypothesized about Rodgers is terrible for players and not fair at all.

I think a good compromise that they should go with is just 100% guaranteed money so they can get him cheaper.

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

theres really not enough of a sample size to draw that kind of conclusion. I think someone else posted its really only been ten years with QBs taking up this much of the cap. a few of those have been won by brady and the pats. i mean, he year denver won manning was taking up 13+% and his play wasnt all that good. Youre telling me another 3-4% is a back breaker even considering the improved qb play youll get out of it.

With that 4M extra saved we got Darian Stewart and Vance Walker without whom we likely don’t win the SB.  So many 1-score wins or less.  

Its fine to cite sample size to prevent drawing hard conclusions.   But if  the effect seen is dramatic it’s noteworhty and shouldn’t be dismissed, either.  So far we are at 0-fer.  

I actually agree it’s not an absolute.  There are ways to counter it.  It’s just undeniable that it makes the job a lot harder.  So far no one has overcome it.  Someone eventually will.   Doesn’t mean it’s not a big barrier.  

[FalconFan13]

So his breakdowns have been released on the contract per year and honestly it's not to bad over all. Thanks for the info from a member on the falcons website.

1. Signing bonus: $46.5 million

2. 2018 salary: $6 million, fully guaranteed.

3. 2019 option bonus: $10 million, fully guaranteed.

4. 2019 salary: $11.5 million, fully guaranteed.

5. 2020 salary: $20.5 million, fully guaranteed.

6. 2021 salary: $23 million, $5.5 million of which is guaranteed for injury only at signing. The $5.5 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2019 league year.

7. 2022 roster bonus: $7.5 million, due third day of 2021 league year.

8. 2022 salary: $16.25 million.

9. 2023 roster bonus: $7.5 million, due third day of 2021 league year.

10. 2023 salary: $20.5 million.

11. All guarantees have no offset language

And this is his breakdowns with cap % used of each year with expected cap raises.

Y1: $17.7m (10%)
Y2: $22.8m (12%)*
Y3: $31.8m (15.9%)*
Y4: $34.3m (16.3%)*
Y5: $35.05m (15.9%)*
Y6: $30m (13%)*

[strat1080]

5 hours ago, DaveDX said:

I believe the conversation went:

They'll never win a super bowl with Ryan.

What's stopping them?

The guy who stopped us is gone, Ryan played really, really well in the super bowl.

That last implied that Ryan's performance in the super bowl earned him his monster contract.  My comment was to show that having a monster championship game performance does not necessarily mean you're worth all of that.  

Matt Ryan totally choked in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. I lost all respect for Matt Ryan as an "elite" QB when he took that sack late in the 4th quarter that knocked the Falcons out of FG range. A FG there ices the game. Sorry but Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers don't let that happen. A QB has to understand the situation. He had a chance to prove his elite status and ice that game while surrounded by elite talent around him. I've always felt that Matt Ryan is an above average QB that is a product of his supporting cast. He's in and out of the playoffs and it pretty much depends on how well the rest of the team is doing. He had a monster Conference Championship game with an elite supporting cast on offense playing against a lousy defense with street free agents manning starting cornerback spots. I'm just not sold on Matt Ryan and I think it's going to be tough for the Falcons to win with this contract. He's dependent on his supporting cast. He's had Julio Jones for the better part of his career and still hasn't hit 40 TDs. You give Rodgers or Brady a guy like that and they are going for at least 45+ TDs. Matt Ryan was pretty pedestrian last year. Even in a supposed "down year" for Rodgers in which he was missing best WR Jordy Nelson in 2015  he still went for 31 TDs. The year Matt Ryan won the MVP Aaron Rodgers was "in a slump" for half the year and still had more TDs than Ryan. Matt Ryan just isn't the same caliber QB that Rodgers and Brady are. Not even close. He's not going to be able to carry the Falcons in the upcoming years taking up so much of the salary cap.

[SimbaWho]

DEN Broncos will be wishing they had a 30 million dollar QB when they miss the playoffs again and waste all that defensive talent lol. I've never watched a team that refused so badly to become super bowl contenders.  Pay one guy, they've literally paid worst players more...

ATL had to do what they had to do. With Rivers/Big Ben/TB and a few others retiring sooner rather than later, Matt Ryan will more than likely be a consistant top 5 QB for a LONG time.

Tough road still with the Saints and Carolina in town. They need playmakers on the D-line, through the draft for the foreseeable future.

I can see Rodgers getting a 5 year 175 million dollar deal. That he definitely, totally deserves. Don't forget the organization he works for makes BILLIONS. An since he's been there, the money they've(GB doesn't have an actually owner but you get my point) made has been mostly as a direct result of Rodgers more than anyones else, just like it was Farve before him. Any an all players in entertainment need to imo, absolutely grab as much as they possibly can without remorse.
 

[JJ6]

1 hour ago, strat1080 said:

Matt Ryan totally choked in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. I lost all respect for Matt Ryan as an "elite" QB when he took that sack late in the 4th quarter that knocked the Falcons out of FG range. A FG there ices the game. Sorry but Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers don't let that happen. A QB has to understand the situation. He had a chance to prove his elite status and ice that game while surrounded by elite talent around him. I've always felt that Matt Ryan is an above average QB that is a product of his supporting cast. He's in and out of the playoffs and it pretty much depends on how well the rest of the team is doing. He had a monster Conference Championship game with an elite supporting cast on offense playing against a lousy defense with street free agents manning starting cornerback spots. I'm just not sold on Matt Ryan and I think it's going to be tough for the Falcons to win with this contract. He's dependent on his supporting cast. He's had Julio Jones for the better part of his career and still hasn't hit 40 TDs. You give Rodgers or Brady a guy like that and they are going for at least 45+ TDs. Matt Ryan was pretty pedestrian last year. Even in a supposed "down year" for Rodgers in which he was missing best WR Jordy Nelson in 2015  he still went for 31 TDs. The year Matt Ryan won the MVP Aaron Rodgers was "in a slump" for half the year and still had more TDs than Ryan. Matt Ryan just isn't the same caliber QB that Rodgers and Brady are. Not even close. He's not going to be able to carry the Falcons in the upcoming years taking up so much of the salary cap.

Ryan is making under 2 million more than Jimmy G, Stafford and Cousins. 8 mil more than Keenum and 10 mil more than Bortles. 

He signed a very fair deal for what he brings to the table. 

Also nobody is putting Ryan on Rodgers or Bradys level so comparing him with those guys makes no sense. He's probably on that next tier. 

The hate Ryan gets for the Superbowl is ridiculous. 

Look at how quickly the pressure up the middle gets to him.

There was litterally no where to go with the ball. He throws it out of bounds and its penalty. 

What about the throw that should have pretty much ended the game?

Thats one of the GOAT throws in Superbowl history. 

Run, run, run and kick a FG in a range Matt Bryant was 96% on the year and Matt Ryan is almost assuredly a Superbowl Champion. 

But what does Shanny do? Even with the pass rush killing us all game and Jake Matthews playing on a sprained ankle, Alex Mack on a fractured leg and Ryan Schrader our RT leaving the game on that series, he decides to call a deep shot to Julio who is guaranteed to be doubled. Its play calling that is just so dumb that it gives people who thinks the NFL is rigged some ammo (Obviously it isnt). 

Thats not even including Devonta Freeman whiffing on a block that resulted in a strip sack. A play where Ryan was loading up to throw to a WIDE open Aldrick Robinson deep down field earlier in the 4th Q. 

But yet Ryan choked. Smh

 

 

[strat1080]

17 minutes ago, SimbaWho said:

DEN Broncos will be wishing they had a 30 million dollar QB when they miss the playoffs again and waste all that defensive talent lol. I've never watched a team that refused so badly to become super bowl contenders.  Pay one guy, they've literally paid worst players more...

ATL had to do what they had to do. With Rivers/Big Ben/TB and a few others retiring sooner rather than later, Matt Ryan will more than likely be a consistant top 5 QB for a LONG time.

Tough road still with the Saints and Carolina in town. They need playmakers on the D-line, through the draft for the foreseeable future.
 

Seriously? They just won a Super Bowl three years ago, pretty much on the backs of their defense with an underperforming Peyton Manning at QB who they paid a lot of money for. I just don't see it with Matt Ryan. There are some up and coming QBs like Wentz, Goff and others that will give him competition. He's only two years younger than Aaron Rodgers and I think Rodgers will play at a higher level longer than Matt Ryan because he simply has better physical talent to work with. A Top 5 QB doesn't miss the playoffs every other year. Matt Ryan is a franchise QB but he's not an elite talent at the QB position. He's made the playoffs 6x in 10 seasons and has actually two seasons with double digit losses where he started at least 3/4 of the season. Matt Ryan has simply had too many mediocre seasons this day in age to be considered a perennial Top 5 QB. That's not exactly saying a whole lot that now that some of the big names are retiring that he's now going to be a Top 5 QB. Matt Ryan just isn't in the class with Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben. Aaron Rodgers made the playoffs 9 seasons in a row when he has played at least half the games in a season. Big Ben has only had two losing seasons. Brady's resume speaks for itself. While Matt Ryan will potentially be considered a Top 5 QB when some of these guys retire, it doesn't really mean anything. It's not always the best QB that wins the Super Bowl. It's the best team. Peyton Manning was actually a below average QB when he won with the Broncos. It's hard to put together an elite team with your QB taking up a huge chunk of the salary cap, unless that QB is superhuman like Brady or Rodgers and can mask a lot of team deficiencies. I just don't think Matt Ryan is in that realm where he can cover up for the team deficiencies that are going to be created by his massive salary in the years to come. Matt Ryan is the type of QB that excels when he has an elite supporting crew around him but he really can't mask team deficiencies. When Matt Ryan has a big year he usually has really good players around him playing at a high level. Matt Ryan has two seasons with 30+ TDs. That's not very impressive in today's NFL. His career best is 36 TDs. Aaron Rodgers has topped that four times in his career. Matt Ryan at his best is basically Aaron Rodgers in a slump. Matt Ryan's career passer rating is 93.4 and his per season average passing production is 26 TDs and 12 INTs. If Aaron Rodgers posts those numbers people are asking "What's wrong with Aaron Rodgers?" Seriously. Matt Ryan's had some pretty good WRs to throw to during that time as well.  Keep in mind that Matt Ryan plays at least 9 indoor games every year while Aaron Rodgers plays a lot of cold and inclement weather games.

[strat1080]

15 minutes ago, jarren said:

Ryan is making under 2 million more than Jimmy G, Stafford and Cousins. 8 mil more than Keenum and 10 mil more than Bortles. 

He signed a very fair deal for what he brings to the table. 

Also nobody is putting Ryan on Rodgers or Bradys level so comparing him with those guys makes no sense. He's probably on that next tier. 

The hate Ryan gets for the Superbowl is ridiculous. 

Look at how quickly the pressure up the middle gets to him.

There was litterally no where to go with the ball. He throws it out of bounds and its penalty. 

What about the throw that should have pretty much ended the game?

Thats one of the GOAT throws in Superbowl history. 

Run, run, run and kick a FG in a range Matt Bryant was 96% on the year and Matt Ryan is almost assuredly a Superbowl Champion. 

But what does Shanny do? Even with the pass rush killing us all game and Jake Matthews playing on a sprained ankle, Alex Mack on a fractured leg and Ryan Schrader our RT leaving the game on that series, he decides to call a deep shot to Julio who is guaranteed to be doubled. Its play calling that is just so dumb that it gives people who thinks the NFL is rigged some ammo (Obviously it isnt). 

Thats not even including Devonta Freeman whiffing on a block that resulted in a strip sack. A play where Ryan was loading up to throw to a WIDE open Aldrick Robinson deep down field earlier in the 4th Q. 

But yet Ryan choked. Smh

 

 

That's the thing though. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have unreal pocket presence and can make subtle moves in the pocket to buy time. I remember in the 2011 playoffs when the Giants throttled Matt Ryan and shut him out. Right after that game analysts were wondering how Aaron Rodgers was going to perform against that same Giants team behind a suspect OL. I vividly remember Sal Palontonio saying, "Aaron Rodgers doesn't have cement feet like Matt Ryan". While Aaron Rodgers lost the next game to the Giants, he put up 20 points and was productive. In that same situation in the linked video, Aaron Rodgers is going to do a spin move and roll to his left and probably make a big play. I mean we've only seen him do that dozens of times. Do you watch football dude? Tom Brady in that same situation probably moves up a foot and then to his right or left a foot to buy time and then he probably hits Amendola, Gronk, or Edelman for a 1st down. We are talking about two special QBs though that rise above the occasion and make the most improbable of plays. That's the difference between a "decent" QB and a "great" QB. The great ones know how to move around a little and buy time to avoid sacks and pick up yards. Do these guys always avoid sacks. Of course not. But they don't take sacks when it is literally going to lose the game for their team. A lot of this takes place before the ball is even snapped. You can sit there and make excuses for Matt Ryan all you want but Brady and Rodgers rarely get fooled. They are surgeons and can read defenses with tremendous precision. They know where the rushers are coming from and they adjust the protections at the line to make sure that all rushers are accounted for and that they can hit the hot route before getting hit. Remember that play where Rodgers hit Jared Cook for 36 years on 3rd down to setup the game winning FG in Dallas. That play happened because of what happened the play before. He knew that rusher was going to be coming off his left side so he actually pulled the guard to the left to pick that guy up. He actually had the Guard abandon the guy in front of him and let that guy rush free and pull to the left of the line to pickup a blitzing LB, whose job was to contain Rodgers in the pocket. Matt Ryan just isn't anywhere close to the level of Brady and Rodgers. Brady and Rodgers are two completely different QBs and excel in their own unique ways but they are both ridiculously good pre-snap. You don't fool those guys and catch them off guard. Especially not on 3rd down in FG range with the game on the line.

[Broncofan]

I don’t think Ryan is an elite QB.  I think he’s the floor of what teams accept for a franchise QB.   Top 8-12 range with the exception of Shanahan-fueled year 2 magic in his system.  

But saying he choked in the SB51 is crazy talk.   I love Shanny but dude just run the ball 3x and it’s over.   That’s not on Ryan.  

[JJ6]

23 minutes ago, strat1080 said:

That's the thing though. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have unreal pocket presence and can make subtle moves in the pocket to buy time. I remember in the 2011 playoffs when the Giants throttled Matt Ryan and shut him out. Right after that game analysts were wondering how Aaron Rodgers was going to perform against that same Giants team behind a suspect OL. I vividly remember Sal Palontonio saying, "Aaron Rodgers doesn't have cement feet like Matt Ryan". While Aaron Rodgers lost the next game to the Giants, he put up 20 points and was productive. In that same situation in the linked video, Aaron Rodgers is going to do a spin move and roll to his left and probably make a big play. I mean we've only seen him do that dozens of times. Do you watch football dude? Tom Brady in that same situation probably moves up a foot and then to his right or left a foot to buy time and then he probably hits Amendola, Gronk, or Edelman for a 1st down. We are talking about two special QBs though that rise above the occasion and make the most improbable of plays. That's the difference between a "decent" QB and a "great" QB. The great ones know how to move around a little and buy time to avoid sacks and pick up yards. Do these guys always avoid sacks. Of course not. But they don't take sacks when it is literally going to lose the game for their team. A lot of this takes place before the ball is even snapped. You can sit there and make excuses for Matt Ryan all you want but Brady and Rodgers rarely get fooled. They are surgeons and can read defenses with tremendous precision. They know where the rushers are coming from and they adjust the protections at the line to make sure that all rushers are accounted for and that they can hit the hot route before getting hit. Remember that play where Rodgers hit Jared Cook for 36 years on 3rd down to setup the game winning FG in Dallas. That play happened because of what happened the play before. He knew that rusher was going to be coming off his left side so he actually pulled the guard to the left to pick that guy up. He actually had the Guard abandon the guy in front of him and let that guy rush free and pull to the left of the line to pickup a blitzing LB, whose job was to contain Rodgers in the pocket. Matt Ryan just isn't anywhere close to the level of Brady and Rodgers. Brady and Rodgers are two completely different QBs and excel in their own unique ways but they are both ridiculously good pre-snap. You don't fool those guys and catch them off guard. Especially not on 3rd down in FG range with the game on the line.

Did you miss the part where I said 

Also nobody is putting Ryan on Rodgers or Bradys level so comparing him with those guys makes no sense. He's probably on that next tier. 

The QBs id take over Ryan? 

Rodgers, Brady, Wentz, Big Ben, Wentz, Wilson and Brees. Also a healthy Luck. But you can put him on the same tier as everyone sans Brady and Rodgers.  

Funny how you say they don't take sacks when it'll lose them games. Yet Brady just took a sack that led to a fumble and pretty much iced the games in the Superbowl.

As for the pre snap adjustments. You're overrating ARod in that regard. For example Atlanta has beat him up the last couple meeting because they've been able to pressure him. DQ has got him a few times with nicely timed blitz designs. Rodgers was fooled a bunch in that NFCCG. 

 

[Nabbs4u]

When Scrubs like Sam Bradford and Blake Bottles can justify a $20M salary. Paying Ryan 30 a true FQB is to be expected. Just like Rodgers eventually getting $32-33. Wentz ,Goff and the next batch of upcoming Rookie contract QB's getting 35+. It's coming.

It's the Market. Doesn't matter how they compare to the Elite (Rodgers, Brady ,Etc), if they are Elite, or if they are slightly above average. The Market is dictating these rediculous contracts. Thus Matt Ryan getting paid 150-30!

[JAF-N72EX]

19 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

I'll be the 1st to say he has always had good receiving options but honestly what good is elite skill position players if your o-line gives you no time to throw it or get a good running game going.   I just don't understand why people hold skill position players in such high regard to a qB's performance over a really good o-line. It's no coincidence that Ryans best years have been when our O-line played like a top 10 group and our defense was solid.   Ryan has performed extremely well without Julio and other top receivers many of times when his O-line was playing well.    Would i give the plethora of skill players up we have brought in heck no i like them helping out but if i had to choose a top 5 to 10 o-line every year or the group of skill players we have every year i would take the O-line for ryan every time.    Ryan without a doubt i don't care what anyone says is one of the smartest QB's in the game and when given reasonable time is an amazingly accurate QB even more so on timing routes. 

And you're not wrong for thinking that either. It's the old adage, the game starts up front. 

Coaches mention this all the time as a focal point in pressers, interviews, books, etc. "We gotta get pressure"--"we gotta get better up front"--"we gotta give our QB a chance"--"we gotta contain on outside".

[JAF-N72EX]

15 hours ago, Malik said:

He's had 2. 2012 and 2016. 

You're forgetting 2013(29 Pass + 1 Rush) and again, multiple 30TD seasons is a pretty lofty standard that you're setting for any QB that is not accomplished by many. Only 10 other QB's since Ryan's rookie year in 2008 have atleast 3 30TD seasons and only 14 have atleast 2 over the same time frame. 

Player	# of 30 TD Seasons
Drew Brees	9
Aaron Rodgers	8
Tom Brady	6
Peyton Manning	5
Philip Rivers	5
Eli Manning	4
Cam Newton	3
Matt Ryan	3
Matthew Stafford	3
Russell Wilson	3
Tony Romo	3
Andrew Luck	2
Andy Dalton	2
Ben Roethlisberger	2
Kirk Cousins	2
Blake Bortles	1
Brett Favre*	1
Carson Palmer	1
Carson Wentz	1
Derek Carr	1
Jay Cutler	1
Kurt Warner*	1
Mark Sanchez	1
Michael Vick	1
Nick Foles	1
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1

15 hours ago, Malik said:

That's the standard Rodgers (when he plays the entire season), Brady, and Brees regularly achieve.

Let's be real here. We all know that Ryan is not on the level of Brady, Rodgers or Brees. But consider this, those are 3 once-in-generation, sure-fire, first ballot Hall of Fame QB's that you're comparing him too. You don't think that maybe it's a bit unfair on your part to compare Ryan to them? Or any other current QB for that matter?  

15 hours ago, Malik said:

Philip Rivers has had more prolific passing seasons as well.

Now this is a more reasonable comparison. For the majority of his career, Ryan has been a consistent top 5-7 QB along with the likes of; Ben, Rivers, Romo, Wilson and the fact that you could make a legit argument over most of his contemporaries only further shows his worth. Maintaining that type of consistency after 10 years is not something to sneeze at. 

I mean,  I won't argue that Ben been better since '08 and Rivers is very borderline debatable but comparing Ryan to Romo and Wilson is certainly up for grabs.  

Quote

 

Matt Ryan has the same TD% as Cam Newton to give you context.

 

To add even more context to this though. Since Newton's rookie year, Ryan has a higher TD%(4.7) than Newton's (4.6). I'm sorry but Newton has never been better than Ryan, IMO.