Packers Off-season Mini-Camp/Training Camp Discussion Thread

[pollino14]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

I don't think it's just about touches. Graham is an entirely different player than Jordy. One is a TE and one is a WR. We can try to morph the two and call Graham "basically a WR" but I don't see it. He's our replacement for Martellus Bennett. 

I think you’re getting a bit hung up on position. Graham isn’t going to be positioned on the line, and asked to block not nearly as much as Bennett ( there’s no way Mac is dumb like Sea), Graham is going to be used like a WR a good majority of snaps, a lot more that Bennett.

[CWood21]

4 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

This is my point. The argument for why we don't need another outside WR and can get by with Allison and a Day 3 rookie has been (1) our offense is going to change schematically and (2) we are now going to target our TEs and RBs way more than usual. I don't see either as reality.  

First off, as I've already mentioned I don't think we're going to see a schematic change.  If anything, I read McCarthy's comments as essentially they're going back to the roots of what made their offense successful.  Secondly, we've really only had two years where I'd argue that a TE was a big part of our offense, 2011 and 2012.  In both of those years, our TE (Jermichael Finley) was in the top 3 in terms of targets.  In 2011, Finley had 93 targets which was just 3 shy of Jordy Nelson for second on the Packers.  In 2012, he was 3rd with 15 more targets than Jordy Nelson who was 4th in terms of targets.  I'd argue that our passing offense is going to be closer to 2011.  Adams and Cobb gets 100 targets, Jimmy Graham gets 90, and our slew of WRs competing for that #3 WR spot get about 100 targets combined.

[SSG]

40 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

It is about touches.  There's only so many touches to go around.  If Cobb gets X, Adams gets Y, and Jordy/Graham gets Z, there's only a finite number of touches remaining.  So you just paid Jimmy Graham $10M/year, but you're going to decrease his touches?  Sounds like an awful business model.  You've got Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb making $10M/year, but you want to take touches away from them?  Another awful business model.  Or how about taking away touches from the guy you just handed a huge extension to?  No matter which way you slice it, there aren't enough touches to justify paying 3 WRs and a TE $10M+ each.  None.  Do I think Jordy Nelson would have outproduced Geronimo Allison?  Absolutely.  At $12M or whatever of a difference?  Hell no.

You're getting way too caught up in positions.  It's about touches.  You can throw out Geronimo Allison against opposing teams' 3rd corner, and with the amount of attention that Graham/Adams/Cobb are going to command, he'll produce enough to have good enough value to justify the release of Nelson.

 

If there was enough touches for Jordy, Adams, Cobb, and Bennett going into last year there is enough touches for Adams, Cobb, Bryant and Graham coming into this year.  One could make a great argument that the previous set of players is deeper and more talented than what we're currently set to march forward with (The drop off from Jordy to Allison is substantially steeper than the drop off from Graham to Bennett IMO).

There is no such thing as having too many quality options.  As it sits right now our offense would be in a SUBSTANTIAL amount of trouble next year if Adams gets even a paper cut given the lack of talent/ experience that we have on the perimeter.  Adding Bryant would not only add another option but give us depth something we don't have. 

 

 

[packfanfb]

30 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

It is about touches.  There's only so many touches to go around.  If Cobb gets X, Adams gets Y, and Jordy/Graham gets Z, there's only a finite number of touches remaining.  So you just paid Jimmy Graham $10M/year, but you're going to decrease his touches?  Sounds like an awful business model.  You've got Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb making $10M/year, but you want to take touches away from them?  Another awful business model.  Or how about taking away touches from the guy you just handed a huge extension to?  No matter which way you slice it, there aren't enough touches to justify paying 3 WRs and a TE $10M+ each.  None.  Do I think Jordy Nelson would have outproduced Geronimo Allison?  Absolutely.  At $12M or whatever of a difference?  Hell no.

You're getting way too caught up in positions.  It's about touches.  You can throw out Geronimo Allison against opposing teams' 3rd corner, and with the amount of attention that Graham/Adams/Cobb are going to command, he'll produce enough to have good enough value to justify the release of Nelson.

Disagree with just about all this. You're essentially arguing that it doesn't matter who we trot out there opposite Adams because if that guy isn't automatically top 3 in touches on paper, it really won't matter. You're also ignoring the quality of touches. With Allison opposite Adams, the latter is about to experience his toughest year as a pro in terms of the types of coverage he's going to face and the competition. He's going to get the No. 1 CB every week. He's going to get over-the-top coverage, etc. You trot out Allison against the No. 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 CB on the other team and he's an after-thought. This affects Adams as well as the inside guys. More importantly, it affects Rodgers. Heaven forbid Adams goes down or a game or two, which will probably happen. At that point, this offense is struggling to get first downs, let alone points with the current personnel. 

[Joe]

50 minutes ago, SSG said:

  Adding Bryant would not only add another option but give us depth something we don't have. 

 

 

Which, in your opinion is...?

[SSG]

2 minutes ago, Joe said:

Which, in your opinion is...?

A player that is capable of consistently winning his match ups on the outside.  By adding Bryant it gives us some insurance  that we're likely not going to need either a late round rookie or Allision to be a #1 caliber perimeter WR if Adams gets banged up. 

 

As it sits right now, we're going to need to see substantially more production from Adams, Cobb and Graham than we've been accustomed to see the in the last 4 years.  By cutting Nelson we're going to be replacing over 150 targets, over 1200 yards receiving and double digit TDs.  I doubt Jimmy Graham is going to be doing all that heavy lifting. 

[Norm]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Disagree with just about all this. You're essentially arguing that it doesn't matter who we trot out there opposite Adams because if that guy isn't automatically top 3 in touches on paper, it really won't matter. You're also ignoring the quality of touches. With Allison opposite Adams, the latter is about to experience his toughest year as a pro in terms of the types of coverage he's going to face and the competition. He's going to get the No. 1 CB every week. He's going to get over-the-top coverage, etc. You trot out Allison against the No. 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 CB on the other team and he's an after-thought. This affects Adams as well as the inside guys. More importantly, it affects Rodgers. Heaven forbid Adams goes down or a game or two, which will probably happen. At that point, this offense is struggling to get first downs, let alone points with the current personnel. 

I'm scared how often we are agreeing lol

This isn't the NBA where it's often p and r and iso and you don't want to leave someone without. Another good player helps everyone else get open. Simple as that. Yes only so many footballs get thrown but you raise the efficiency of those balls. 

Hadn't thought about injuries and I don't believe you can count on them and have starters ready but Allison is even a pretty crappy to average 3 methinks.

I just can't get behind Allison as a three..I really really hope I'm wrong or it's someone else by crunch time. 

Maybe it's time for Rodgers to not have every toy.. Maybe the backs will be used more.. Rookie could surprise. Signing can still happen. Not panicked yet at all. Just bummed we could have probably kept Jordy. And yes I'm sure there's some sentiment here but I'm one of the least sentimental people I know.. So not a ton.

[Leader]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You're getting way too caught up in positions.  It's about touches.  You can throw out Geronimo Allison against opposing teams' 3rd corner, and with the amount of attention that Graham/Adams/Cobb are going to command, he'll produce enough to have good enough value to justify the release of Nelson.

^^^^^ This.

plus - I think people are definitely underestimating (perhaps purposefully for point of argument) what Allison could do for us this year.

[Norm]

@CWood21

Can't get the quote right so just @ing

We didn't have to give Jordy 10 plus. You acknowledge that, yeah?

[Norm]

1 minute ago, Leader said:

^^^^^ This.

plus - I think people are definitely underestimating (perhaps purposefully for point of argument) what Allison could do for us this year.

I think Allison sucks. So that's kind of my thing. All we hear is about separation for years and now we have to trust the guy with the least ability there. Adams doesn't burn. Nor Cobb. Nor Jimmy

I'm the most anti speed guy ever. I hate the constant speed talk. But that dude...

If I'm wrong I'll eat all the crow in the world. But I don't think by week 6 the guy will even see the field and the fans will be begging him off long before that. 

I am the last person on Earth to have extreme views. I don't have them. I'm amazed this feels extreme at this point.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Disagree with just about all this. You're essentially arguing that it doesn't matter who we trot out there opposite Adams because if that guy isn't automatically top 3 in touches on paper, it really won't matter. You're also ignoring the quality of touches. With Allison opposite Adams, the latter is about to experience his toughest year as a pro in terms of the types of coverage he's going to face and the competition. He's going to get the No. 1 CB every week. He's going to get over-the-top coverage, etc. You trot out Allison against the No. 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 CB on the other team and he's an after-thought. This affects Adams as well as the inside guys. More importantly, it affects Rodgers. Heaven forbid Adams goes down or a game or two, which will probably happen. At that point, this offense is struggling to get first downs, let alone points with the current personnel. 

IF you're disagreeing with that, you're disagreeing with the math of it, which is insane.  Over the last four seasons in which Rodgers has touched the ball, he's thrown the ball on average 563.5 times.  Let's use 565 for simplicity's sake.  Over the last two years, Davante Adams has averaged ~120 targets, Randall Cobb has averaged ~90 targets, and Jimmy Graham has averaged ~95 targets.  Assuming those numbers stay static, that's another 260 attempts to go around.  That goes between our 3rd WR, all of our backs, and any of our backups.  Jordy Nelson prior to last year was averaging ~150 attempts.  Do you truly believe that the Packers are going to throw only 20% of their passing attempts at their backups and running backs?  You're making a completely different argument.  I'm making the argument that there's only a finite amount of touches left once you include your top 3 (Adams, Cobb, and Graham).  If you believe that Jordy Nelson has the same kind of impact with less touches, you're off your rocker. 

[Leader]

Nelson wasnt getting any separation either

[Norm]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It is about touches.  There's only so many touches to go around.  If Cobb gets X, Adams gets Y, and Jordy/Graham gets Z, there's only a finite number of touches remaining.  So you just paid Jimmy Graham $10M/year, but you're going to decrease his touches?  Sounds like an awful business model.  You've got Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb making $10M/year, but you want to take touches away from them?  Another awful business model.  Or how about taking away touches from the guy you just handed a huge extension to?  No matter which way you slice it, there aren't enough touches to justify paying 3 WRs and a TE $10M+ each.  None.  Do I think Jordy Nelson would have outproduced Geronimo Allison?  Absolutely.  At $12M or whatever of a difference?  Hell no.

You're getting way too caught up in positions.  It's about touches.  You can throw out Geronimo Allison against opposing teams' 3rd corner, and with the amount of attention that Graham/Adams/Cobb are going to command, he'll produce enough to have good enough value to justify the release of Nelson.

I believe in the third current affect. And he'll get lost as someone that they don't fear and that will help. I can't say it's worth not having Jordy. I'm fine with not dropping that whole salary. But I am convinced he'd have taken less. I think he nearly admitted so. 

Let me put it this way. Norm, me, the fan, the nobody, would have had 5 more on the cap to keep him over Allison if possible.

[Norm]

Just now, Leader said:

Nelson wasnt getting any separation either

But he's got a proven track record and known skillset to produce without it. And the endless trust of our Hof QB to throw it there without.

You can't claim we are ignoring things and pretend that isn't also true, right?

[Norm]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

IF you're disagreeing with that, you're disagreeing with the math of it, which is insane.  Over the last four seasons in which Rodgers has touched the ball, he's thrown the ball on average 563.5 times.  Let's use 565 for simplicity's sake.  Over the last two years, Davante Adams has averaged ~120 targets, Randall Cobb has averaged ~90 targets, and Jimmy Graham has averaged ~95 targets.  Assuming those numbers stay static, that's another 260 attempts to go around.  That goes between our 3rd WR, all of our backs, and any of our backups.  Jordy Nelson prior to last year was averaging ~150 attempts.  Do you truly believe that the Packers are going to throw only 20% of their passing attempts at their backups and running backs?  You're making a completely different argument.  I'm making the argument that there's only a finite amount of touches left once you include your top 3 (Adams, Cobb, and Graham).  If you believe that Jordy Nelson has the same kind of impact with less touches, you're off your rocker. 

You're going to get mad at this.

But based on what you just said, you more or less would rather have inferior supporting talent to help pull coverage because they can't all get targets.

And yes I'm aware money is a factor. But here I think we could have paid for the luxury.

And yes less impact by yards. Sure. Of course man. But you know well enough that yards aren't everything

5 all pros at receiver on one team don't produce as much as separately. That doesn't mean it's bad.