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Saints Watch- Additional First Round Pick

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As much as I want a top pick, it is real hard to wish for an injury. Clearly, you could speculate about what if. The reality is this is a QB league. Losing Ingram for 4 games is a nuisance. Losing Kamara would be the same, but it's still all about Brees. 

By the way, I still think they could tank without any of those three going down. The margin for error is so small. I saw someone predict Tampa Bay could be this year's Philly. Now, I doubt that but they will be improved. The Saints also have Atlanta and Carolina in their division. They are far from a playoff lock, much less a Super Bowl run. They went all in with this trade. It's boom or bust for them and I think it's going to be bust. An 8-8 record is not out of the question. BTW, neither is 5-11 or 11-5 based on their division and schedule. 

 

 

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Went all in on Davenport yes.  Don't understand that move still.  Rarely does a rookie have a major impact.  He might be a 4-7 sack guy this year.  Average starter.  Has potential to improve in subsequent years but don't think Davenport is going to put NO over the top.  Agree with Golf.  Over/under is 8.5 games.  We should have a pretty good pick coming.  My guess is high teens.

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14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Except Kamara isn't the Saints offense, DJ is the Cardinals offense...

He will be, just like DJ was in his 2ND year, especially with Ingram's suspension.

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6 hours ago, fattlipp said:

He will be, just like DJ was in his 2ND year, especially with Ingram's suspension.

While I do think he'll get targeted heavily in the passing game, I don't think he'll get the carries Johnson got/gets in Arizona. Kamara doesn't have the type of frame you'd want to give heavy carries to. He would be most effective in the role he already holds. Maybe a slight uptick in touches with Ingram suspended.

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31 minutes ago, Lieker said:

While I do think he'll get targeted heavily in the passing game, I don't think he'll get the carries Johnson got/gets in Arizona. Kamara doesn't have the type of frame you'd want to give heavy carries to. He would be most effective in the role he already holds. Maybe a slight uptick in touches with Ingram suspended.

I was going to object based upon the fact that, barring injury, the Saints will have the NFL all-time passing yardage leader by week 8 of this season.  I don't care how good Kamara is or is not, they have Drew Brees.

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1 hour ago, DavidatMIZZOU said:

I was going to object based upon the fact that, barring injury, the Saints will have the NFL all-time passing yardage leader by week 8 of this season.  I don't care how good Kamara is or is not, they have Drew Brees.

You've gotta figure NOLA will be picking up some RB depth somewhere along the way. Ingram was their rushing workhorse with almost twice as many attempts as Kamara.

Behind Kamara is Tre Edmunds (a huge RB @ 6'2 / 233#) who for whatever reason had all of 9 carries and no receptions in 2017 and a 6th round draft pick this year.

Unless Brees is gonna come out of TC passing the ball more than his arm is ready for they'll need somebody to pick up Ingram's touches.

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9 minutes ago, Leader said:

You've gotta figure NOLA will be picking up some RB depth somewhere along the way. Ingram was their rushing workhorse with almost twice as many attempts as Kamara.

Behind Kamara is Tre Edmunds (a huge RB @ 6'2 / 233#) who for whatever reason had all of 9 carries and no receptions in 2017 and a 6th round draft pick this year.

Unless Brees is gonna come out of TC passing the ball more than his arm is ready for they'll need somebody to pick up Ingram's touches.

Brees has averaged 546 attempts per season in his career.  And that number includes his 27 attempt rookie season and an 11 game 2003 season. For reference, Rodgers averages 483 attempts per season since becoming the starter (538 if you eliminate his first three seasons on the bench, and his two seasons that he missed multiple games).  I doubt they will throw the ball too much for Drew.  Kamara will be fine shouldering most of the load for 4 games and Ingram can get more carries when he comes back without the beating those 4 games will have given him.

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6 minutes ago, DavidatMIZZOU said:

Brees has averaged 546 attempts per season in his career.  And that number includes his 27 attempt rookie season and an 11 game 2003 season. For reference, Rodgers averages 483 attempts per season since becoming the starter (538 if you eliminate his first three seasons on the bench, and his two seasons that he missed multiple games).  I doubt they will throw the ball too much for Drew.  Kamara will be fine shouldering most of the load for 4 games and Ingram can get more carries when he comes back without the beating those 4 games will have given him.

No doubt Brees has been a machine and for all I know (as I dont watch NOLA all too often) he could come out of training camp ready to chuck it 50 times if necessary. Could be. Dont know - but if NOLA handles Brees as GB handles AR - they'll limit his TC tosses - so not sure that early seasob workload would be prudent and having somebody to split work with Kamara (and not jeopardize W's-L's) might not be a bad idea. 

Here's Brees line for the first four games of 2017:

27/37 for 291

30/39 for 447

20/29 for 220

29/41 for 268

So - maybe Ingram's loss wont be too big a bump in the road after all as it seems Brees was ready to chuck it up just fine.

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I know it’s popular to want to hope/believe that the Saints are going to somehow tank this season, or finish somewhere in the middle to bottom half of the league, and while that may happen for whatever strange reason, I’m not counting on it.  Unless Brees goes down like Rodgers did last season, I’m not expecting any drop-off in performance.  They have enough talent on their roster to be very competitive in the NFC.  It’s ok to hope for the worst I guess.

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The Saints should be good.  The scenarios we are discussing are the same scenarios that could happen to any elite NFL team - 1-3 injuries at key spots such as QB, CB, OT, skill, etc.

If you're expecting a top half of the draft pick, that's irrational.  Even if the Saints regress and fall out of the division, this is a 9-7, 8-8 type team which should fall in the 20s for the draft.

The Saints with a few injuries are basically the Tennessee Titans - good, not spectacular.

 

Brees does not miss games very often, unlike Rodgers.  Expecting that to change all of a sudden is a little loony.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Sasquatch said:

I know it’s popular to want to hope/believe that the Saints are going to somehow tank this season, or finish somewhere in the middle to bottom half of the league, and while that may happen for whatever strange reason, I’m not counting on it.  Unless Brees goes down like Rodgers did last season, I’m not expecting any drop-off in performance.  They have enough talent on their roster to be very competitive in the NFC.  It’s ok to hope for the worst I guess.

lol jinx you owe me a coke!

 

EDIT: don't misunderstand my (our?) posts as suggesting the trade was a bad idea.  I was and am still in favor of that move.  Also, it's very fun to have an active rooting interest against a specific team.  Feels like the NBA

Edited by skibrett15

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2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Even if the Saints regress and fall out of the division, this is a 9-7, 8-8 type team which should fall in the 20s for the draft.

Spots 20 and above are reserved for playoff teams. Since 2010, 9/22 (41%) of 9-7 teams have made the playoffs and 1/27 (4%) of 8-8 teams have. Especially since that's likely to be a strong division, a 9-7 or 8-8 season is more likely to result in a pick in the teens than the 20s.

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Yeah saints have always been streaky with Brees, they couldn finish anywhere from 5-12 wins IMO.

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1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

Brees does not miss games very often, unlike Rodgers.  Expecting that to change all of a sudden is a little loony.

It is a loooooong way away from loony. Brees is 39, and the NFL is very hard on older guys. Past health means little when just one unfortunate contact can break a collarbone or worse, and the older you get the easier it happens. Brees missing significant time is not that unlikely.

I would like to take advantage of the way bookies work (by using past performance) to get a bet at good odds, because if I could find a bookie (offering decent odds) that would take a bet on NO winning just 5 games next season, I'd take it. That is a pretty hopeful bet, but certainly within the realms of the reasonably possible.

I do expect them to win more, but I also recognise that putting the franchise on the back of a 39 year old QB can very easily go wrong. Also, he had 23 TDs last year, compared to 37 in 2016, that could be the beginning of a sharp slide. How many wins is Tom Savage good for ?

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Just now, OneTwoSixFive said:

Also, he had 23 TDs last year, compared to 37 in 2016,

Lowest TD number for him since 2003. 

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