Top 10 WR

[Scout]

Who are the best 10 WR in the NFL?

[AlNFL19]

I created an expected points metric for this kind of thing in my spare time, so here's the 2017-18 data:

1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh - 121.43

2. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston - 119.42

3. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers - 110.0

4. Julio Jones, Atlanta - 102.53

5. Michael Thomas, New Orleans - 99.13

6. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona - 93.60

7. Adam Thielen, Minnesota - 89.91

8. Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit - 89.63

9. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City - 88.27

10. Jarvis Landry, Miami - 87.10

Just Missed: Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams (then NE) - 83.60

[Scout]

8 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

I created an expected points metric for this kind of thing in my spare time, so here's the 2017-18 data:

1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh - 121.43

2. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston - 119.42

3. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers - 110.0

4. Julio Jones, Atlanta - 102.53

5. Michael Thomas, New Orleans - 99.13

6. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona - 93.60

7. Adam Thielen, Minnesota - 89.91

8. Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit - 89.63

9. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City - 88.27

10. Jarvis Landry, Miami - 87.10

Just Missed: Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams (then NE) - 83.60

So about those formulas.. lol 

[AlNFL19]

18 hours ago, Scout said:

So about those formulas.. lol 

They're a lot of big numbers and stuff that I mess up a billion times entering into a spreadsheet. I think they form a good representation. Basically it just weights different stats that are regularly collected (ex.: yards, receiving first downs, etc.) based on their expected contribution to scoring x points, and mashes them all up into one number. 

[RandyMossIsBoss]

1. Antonio Brown
2. Julio Jones
3. DeAndre Hopkins
4. AJ Green
5. Odell Beckham Jr
6. Michael Thomas
7. Mike Evans
8. Larry Fitzgerald
9. Keenan Allen
10. TY Hilton

Probably another 5 or so WRs I'd have in that 3rd tier.

[Crickett]

1. Antonio Brown

2. DeAndre Hopkins

3. Julio Jones

4. Tyreek Hill

5. Michael Thomas

6. Odell Beckham Jr.

7. Keenan Allen

8. T.Y. Hilton

9. Adam Thielan 

10. Mike Evans

 

Just missed: Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin

 

 

I feel a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of Bengals fans cried out and were suddenly silenced.  I fear something terrible has happened. 

[JAF-N72EX]

It's 2018 and we're still seeing Fitz being labeled as a top-10 WR......think about that? 

I'll do top 5 or 6 right now.

Tier AB) Yes, the gap is that big now. He has already been #1 for the last 3-4 years and last season he separated himself that much from every other WR in the league.   

Tier 2) Julio, ODB, AJ Green, Hopkins

Tier 3) Thomas(I expected a little more out him this past year but there still isn't another WR in the league that I expect to climb to that #2 spot faster more than him), Thielan, Fitz and couple of others.

 

[JAF-N72EX]

On 5/21/2018 at 4:57 PM, AlNFL19 said:

I created an expected points metric for this kind of thing in my spare time, so here's the 2017-18 data:

1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh - 121.43

2. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston - 119.42

3. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers - 110.0

4. Julio Jones, Atlanta - 102.53

5. Michael Thomas, New Orleans - 99.13

6. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona - 93.60

7. Adam Thielen, Minnesota - 89.91

8. Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit - 89.63

9. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City - 88.27

10. Jarvis Landry, Miami - 87.10

Just Missed: Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams (then NE) - 83.60

I understand that this isn't necessarily your opinion and more so based on metrics but Landry is not a top-10 WR and I would also like to hear an argument from anyone regarding Allen as well.

[SmittyBacall]

Tier 1:

Julio Jones

Antonio Brown 

AJ Green

DeAndre Hopkins

Odell Beckham Jr.

 

Tier 2:

Mike Evans

Michael Thomas

Alshon Jeffery

Amari Cooper

Josh Gordon

Keenan Allen

TY Hilton

Allen Robinson

Brandin Cooks

Larry Fitzgerald

Tyreek Hill

[Scout]

I'm not anywhere near as high on Mike Evans as others. He might be the worst YAC WR in the NFL

[JJ6]

1) Julio

2) AB

 

3) OBJ

4) DHop

5) Green 

 

6) Evans

7) Allen

8) M Thomas

9) TY Hilton

10) J Gordon

 

[AlNFL19]

On 5/23/2018 at 3:32 AM, JustAnotherFan said:

I understand that this isn't necessarily your opinion and more so based on metrics but Landry is not a top-10 WR and I would also like to hear an argument from anyone regarding Allen as well.

I stand by the metrics here. Landry might not be a Top-10 WR now, but he was last year.

[Nex_Gen]

1. Antonio Brown

2. Julio Jones

3. Odell Beckham Jr

4. DeAndre Hopkins

5. AJ Green

6. Larry Fitzgerald

7. Mike Evans

8. Michael Thomas

9. Keenan Allen

10. Brandin Cooks

[JAF-N72EX]

13 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

I stand by the metrics here. Landry might not be a Top-10 WR now, but he was last year.

I disagree. Your metrics use raw stat lines but his stat lines do not match his ability, at all because most of his stats come from short routes. Last season, nearly 50% of his 112 catches came on a 4 yards or less and he only average 6.1 yards per target for the year. 

Furthermore, his ability to run routes properly and effective are also limited to shorter routes and that goes beyond this past season as well. This goes back to even 2016 when we averaged, a higher but still low 8.3, yards per target

And just to put all of this into better perspective, here's an image showing all of his routes last season vs the average WR. 

 

Now here is a breakdown of his routes from 2016 and you will further see exactly what I mean about his stats not matching his ability. 49 of his targets came on a screen pass just as an example.

[BleedTheClock]

@JustAnotherFan who cares how he gets his production? He's PRODUCTIVE. Nobody's calling Jarvis Landry a deep threat; we're calling him a damn good receiver. He consistently gets open, consistently catches the football, and can put it in the paint in the red zone. Excellent blocker, excellent route runner, and great after the catch. I don't know if he's a top 10 player, but he's certainly right outside of that range if he's not in it already.