turtle28 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Quote Best-case scenario: 10-6, Wild card, win a playoff game This scenario doesn’t require a whole lot of explanation beyond flipping the elements of the worst case into more positive outcomes. Smith could pick up where he left off last year when he completed 67.5 percent of his passes and was third in the league with 7.2 adjusted net yards per attempt. Maybe the yards per attempt will drop some as he tries to find a consistent deep target. A healthy Jordan Reed would help Smith out tremendously. If Reed can participate in most of training camp, the two could hit the ground running. Smith’s ability to connect with Josh Doctson on some 50-50 balls also will be important. As for the running game, Guice could break out early behind a line that gels quickly. It’s not out of the question for him to gain 1,000 yards (that’s just about 65 yards per game), maybe a little more. A healthy Chris Thompson could kick in over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Worst case: 6-10, last in NFC East This is based mostly on Alex Smith having a tough time adjusting to Jay Gruden’s offense, his new teammates, and the NFC. Thinking he could struggle is not just negative thinking, there is history to back it up. Smith was traded from the 49ers to the Chiefs in 2013. In his first nine games, he completed just 59.7 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and four interceptions He had an adjusted net yards per attempt of 5.23. Had he finished the season there he would have ranked 28th in the NFL. His passer rating was 81.4, which would have ranked 25th. It’s safe to say he was off to a very slow start. But the Chiefs went 8-1 in those nine games. It is doubtful that the Redskins could survive such a slow start. In the past three seasons, with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, they were 4-17 in games where Cousins’ passer rating was under 90. If you drop the ceiling to 81, the record drops to 0-14. Kansas City managed to start 9-0 in 2013 because of a running game that produced at least 100 yards rushing every game and a defense that got at least one takeaway every game and got three or more turnovers in a game five times. Could the Redskins duplicate that and survive a slow start by Smith? It’s possible, but this is the worst-case scenario. And there is no guarantee that the Redskins will significantly improve a running attack that was 27th in the league last year or a rushing defense that was dead last. Offensively, the hope is that Derrius Guice will improve the running game. But rookies are, well rookies. And being a high draft pick is no guarantee of success. In the past three drafts, 20 running backers were drafted in the first three rounds. Of those players, four rushed for 750 yards or more as rookies. Maybe Guice will be one of the productive players but the odds are not in his favor. This isn’t saying he will be a bust; however, he may not have instant impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceinthehouse Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 I think our ceiling is 12-4. I say that cause cause Alex won dbl digit games in KC in 4 of his 5 years there. Their record the yr before he arrived? 3-13 I also don't see the Giants nor Cowboys as threats. Wouldn't be surprised if we swept them this yr. Philly of course, is the team we will be fighting to win our division. We could go 5-1 in our division alone & that wouldn't shock me. Maybe 4-2... Our floor is 6-10, but not worse team in the east. That will belong to Giants or Cowboys. but 6-10 can happen if we get hit with injuries & never recover. Specially with an early bye week in week 4. but I think we are talented enough to avoid anything worse than 6 wins. McCoy isn't great, but even he could manage a few wins against some struggling teams. Vernon Davis is still a pretty good TE for us and is a back up. I think we probably end up anywhere between 9-7 and 11-5 is my guess. But 12-4 is a possibility. If everything goes right. Anything better & I think we all would be on cloud 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted May 20, 2018 Author Share Posted May 20, 2018 2 hours ago, aceinthehouse said: I think our ceiling is 12-4. I say that cause cause Alex won dbl digit games in KC in 4 of his 5 years there. Their record the yr before he arrived? 3-13 I also don't see the Giants nor Cowboys as threats. Wouldn't be surprised if we swept them this yr. Philly of course, is the team we will be fighting to win our division. We could go 5-1 in our division alone & that wouldn't shock me. Maybe 4-2... Our floor is 6-10, but not worse team in the east. That will belong to Giants or Cowboys. but 6-10 can happen if we get hit with injuries & never recover. Specially with an early bye week in week 4. but I think we are talented enough to avoid anything worse than 6 wins. McCoy isn't great, but even he could manage a few wins against some struggling teams. Vernon Davis is still a pretty good TE for us and is a back up. I think we probably end up anywhere between 9-7 and 11-5 is my guess. But 12-4 is a possibility. If everything goes right. Anything better & I think we all would be on cloud 9. I just don’t see how the Redskins get to 12-4 given how good the division is and they play the AFC South and NFC South this year which are two good divisions with good teams. 10-6 or 11-5 is their ceiling IMO. It’s going to be hard to go 5-1 or better given how good the division is. Then, we’d have to go 5-3 or better vs the Saints, Falcons, Jags, Panthers, Titans, Texans, Bucs and Colts. I agree we probably end up in the 9-7 to at best 11-5 range. I also agree with you and Tandler that our floor is 6-10 and a lot would have to go wrong for that to happen. If we go 6-10 I think it’s likely that we are the worst team in the NFCE or 2nd worst. I don’t see any way the Giants or Cowboys aren’t around .500 either if they are healthy. The division is going to be very tough this year like it was most of last decade where all the teams are around .500 with a few being a few games over and the other two being .500, at worst 6-10 or 7-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A TRAIN 89 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Ceiling: 10-6 Floor: 6-10 Basically the status quo for the last 5 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lavar703 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 This team has a ton of talent. They have 12-win talent but I expect them to be 5-11 or 10-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted May 20, 2018 Author Share Posted May 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, lavar703 said: This team has a ton of talent. They have 12-win talent but I expect them to be 5-11 or 10-6. Pretty much or somewhere in between. I’ll be completely shocked if they win more games than 10 and win the division but it’s totally plausible that they’re in the running for a wildcard birth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog44 Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 I think most NFL fans believe there team is in the 6-10 to 10-6 range, with the exception of New England and a couple others. I mean look at any gambling site. 25 teams are in that range for over/under for the season. I was surprised the Skins were at 5.5. Could just be where the action took the number as the world hates us. I might take that over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PARROTHEAD Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 I see the ceiling being 8-8 with this schedule. Thats not knocking the teams talent, I put that more on the coaching side. Floor. 4 wins. I think we beat Dallas once, and the Giants once, lose both to the Eagles. So between the Jets, Cards, Titans Bucs and Texans. I could see at worst we win 2, with at best we win 4 of those. 6 is my prediction for the season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said: I see the ceiling being 8-8 with this schedule. Thats not knocking the teams talent, I put that more on the coaching side. Floor. 4 wins. I think we beat Dallas once, and the Giants once, lose both to the Eagles. So between the Jets, Cards, Titans Bucs and Texans. I could see at worst we win 2, with at best we win 4 of those. 6 is my prediction for the season though. Man that’s rough. If the running game and defense are better - which they should be - that alone is worth another win, if not more. I have to disagree with Tandler some in his negative prediction. In the article, Tandler mentions how the Redskins when Kirk was their QB were 4-17 when Kirk’s rating was under 90 and 0-14 when his rating was under 81 but from 2015-2017 the Redskins defense wasn’t good and they didn’t have a consistent running game. If the Redskins have a good running game and a good defense like the Chiefs did when Alex first went there - which they should this year - then that will make up for Alex struggling a bit to start the season - like Kirk always did. If Kirk had played average or poorly in the past when he was our QB, the running game and defense couldn’t win us games. I believe with Guice and an improved defense that even if Alex has a poor game we can still win because Guice and our defense will be better this year than our running game and our defense in past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PARROTHEAD Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 52 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Man that’s rough. If the running game and defense are better - which they should be - that alone is worth another win, if not more. I have to disagree with Tandler some in his negative prediction. In the article, Tandler mentions how the Redskins when Kirk was their QB were 4-17 when Kirk’s rating was under 90 and 0-14 when his rating was under 81 but from 2015-2017 the Redskins defense wasn’t good and they didn’t have a consistent running game. If the Redskins have a good running game and a good defense like the Chiefs did when Alex first went there - which they should this year - then that will make up for Alex struggling a bit to start the season - like Kirk always did. If Kirk had played average or poorly in the past when he was our QB, the running game and defense couldn’t win us games. I believe with Guice and an improved defense that even if Alex has a poor game we can still win because Guice and our defense will be better this year than our running game and our defense in past years. We overall seem to have improved. But as far as improving goes. Eagles and Giants blow us out the water this offseason. We have done better than the Cowboys thankfully. Our OOC is tough with the addons teams like Tampa has made. Their defensive line along with the Texans is flat out "WOW!". Titans Jets and Cards I think we can jump them, then we pull off a surprise win over one of the Ravens, Broncos, Packers or Saints. Most likely the Saints. Every teams job is to improve during the offseason. We arnt the only ones to have done so. They arnt sitting still waiting for us to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 It all depends on injuries. Sky is the limit if we're the least injured team in the league like the Rams were last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said: We overall seem to have improved. But as far as improving goes. Eagles and Giants blow us out the water this offseason. We have done better than the Cowboys thankfully. Our OOC is tough with the addons teams like Tampa has made. Their defensive line along with the Texans is flat out "WOW!". Titans Jets and Cards I think we can jump them, then we pull off a surprise win over one of the Ravens, Broncos, Packers or Saints. Most likely the Saints. Every teams job is to improve during the offseason. We arnt the only ones to have done so. They arnt sitting still waiting for us to catch up. The Giants left side of the OL got better and they got better at running back. Obviously, if OBJ is back and healthy that’s huge too but the Giants are switching to the 3-4 and they lost JPP. I’m not sold that Vernon is going to be a good 3-4 OLB and they don’t have DRC anymore as their slot corner so, I think their defense takes a step back. Also, don’t sleep on how many players we are getting back from injury. Getting Allen, Reed, Nicholson and others back healthy are upgrades over the players who finished the season at those positions the second half of the year. Also, you can probably answer this better than anyone; is Saquon Barkley really that much better than Derrius Guice? I’m not so sure the gap is that huge between the two players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Draper Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Our ceiling is 19-0. Why? we have the best quarterback in the nfl on play action passes and a huge upgrade over our previously over rated qb we have the best TE in football who has a legitimate chance to be a hall of fame. It’s the perfect match for Smith. gruden was the best offensive coordinator in the nfl for several seasons in Cinn and now that he has better personnel to work with he’s going to be very innovative and prepared with both an excellent running and passing game that is balanced and the redskins will lead the league on total offense our defense is so much improved as we have two to three all pro’s in our front seven and 3 others with great chances to make the pro bowl. and montae Nicholson will be recognized as a top 5 safety with 8 ints we have a game breaking awesome punt returner in crowder. He struggled a bit last year but that was his learning year and he used last year as a wake up call and will lead the league in return yardage with 3 return TD’s our team has so much depth thanks to Allen that injuries really don’t matter that much as long as our top 5 all pros don’t miss too many games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PARROTHEAD Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 56 minutes ago, turtle28 said: The Giants left side of the OL got better and they got better at running back. Obviously, if OBJ is back and healthy that’s huge too but the Giants are switching to the 3-4 and they lost JPP. I’m not sold that Vernon is going to be a good 3-4 OLB and they don’t have DRC anymore as their slot corner so, I think their defense takes a step back. Also, don’t sleep on how many players we are getting back from injury. Getting Allen, Reed, Nicholson and others back healthy are upgrades over the players who finished the season at those positions the second half of the year. Also, you can probably answer this better than anyone; is Saquon Barkley really that much better than Derrius Guice? I’m not so sure the gap is that huge between the two players. I personally dont see any difference in Barkley and Guice really. Barkley has shown hes mega talented. Guice couldnt showcase it as much because of the qb situation. Talkin stacked fronts loaded up to do nothing but prevent him from getting yards. And yet he got those yards anyway. Why his big runs, after 5-7 yards downfield, he was wide slam open running free. Cause that box was loaded just for him. I think a good way you could think of it. These college teams overloading/outnumbering the box against our OLmen at LSU. College players arnt as good as NFL, But you got 7 in the box against 5 linemen. Thats something that can make up for lack of talent of college is extra numbers. Cause he wont face anything like it until 3rd and short in the NFL, and still then the line wont be outnumbered. And regardless, he plugged away chunks of yards, always moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldman9er Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 8 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said: It all depends on injuries. Sky is the limit if we're the least injured team in the league like the Rams were last year. Yep. This was what I was thinking. Washington seemed to have had such a crazy amount of important players injured. Having them back healthy + the added players via FA and Draft would make them incredibly improved. No lie, it's going to be a real grind in the NFCE, but looks to me like the Redskins can make some real noise. 7 wins is the floor, and 11 is the ceiling THIS year, imo. Likely gets even better next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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