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Week 2 GDT - Minnesota (1-0) @ Green Bay (1-0)


Leader

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32 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I feel like you're trying to make a point in response to a point I wasn't making.  You know the QB cap argument I made was based on the playoffs and Super Bowls, right?  I feel like your time would be better spent looking through past postseasons winners to see how it relates to teams winning when it actually matters. 

No. I'm not trying to make any points towards anything you said specifically.

This topic isnt a new one. Its been discussed by multiple people - over an extended period of time - on multiple discussion forums.
I'm not personally trying to make any point. As I mentioned to Norm (my last comment on the lengthly discussion that took place here during the offseason) I said it would be interesting to actually put some numbers - data - to the hypothesis.

Thats what I'm doing.

As I mentioned in my initial post before game 1 - having the highest paid player in the entire league as our QB would tend to skew the data a bit - but - who cares. Lets just see how it plays out.

Its not intended to win any argument. Prove somebody right or anybody else wrong. Its a topic of broad interest - so I'm collecting and providing the data. Nothing more. Nothing less. Try to find it interesting. It doesnt take a great deal of my time, but thank-you for the concern. 

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Just now, Leader said:

No. I'm not trying to make any points towards anything you said specifically.

I still think the numbers would make more sense and be more insightful in postseason play alone. 

It just doesn't make sense to me in regular season discussion.  Teams with the lowest cap hit at QB likely won't even make the playoffs anyway since they either don't have one or they JUST got one. 

At the very least, include the numbers from all teams in the NFL.  Don't think you're gonna get much from focusing on one team (us).  Add in all teams and you might have some significance at the end of the season.  Buccaneers over Saints, Jets over Lions, Broncos over Seahawks, Rams over Raiders, Jaguars over Giants, Eagles over Falcons, Bengals over Colts, Vikings over Niners, Chiefs over Chargers...

That's already a majority going to the lower-paid QB in week one. 

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1 minute ago, Outpost31 said:

I still think the numbers would make more sense and be more insightful in postseason play alone. It just doesn't make sense to me in regular season discussion.  Teams with the lowest cap hit at QB likely won't even make the playoffs anyway since they either don't have one or they JUST got one. At the very least, include the numbers from all teams in the NFL.  Don't think you're gonna get much from focusing on one team (us).  Add in all teams and you might have some significance at the end of the season.  Buccaneers over Saints, Jets over Lions, Broncos over Seahawks, Rams over Raiders, Jaguars over Giants, Eagles over Falcons, Bengals over Colts, Vikings over Niners, Chiefs over Chargers...That's already a majority going to the lower-paid QB in week one. 

Okay - thats fine - but my thinking runs along the lines of what effect does % of CAP going to the QB have on overall roster construction. Not simply a game or two at the end. Does a team - in order to accommodate a higher % QB - have to hollow out their roster (to some degree) - thereby lose overall talent - and challenge regular season success.

Thats where the regular season counts. Those wins and losses are the building blocks of a Super Bowl season. You dont get to the SB without a winning roster and winning regular season. A one game snap shot isnt definitive IMO.

In our instance - AR became the top dog at the end or roster construction and its impossible for me to know what effect his *projected* CAP number had on roster decisions - except - I suspect it had some bearing on the post-roster decisions surrounding Mack. From the sounds of things - we'd reached the point where to take on Mack (possible no doubt.....) we'd reached: "Its time to hollow out the overall talent pool" point.

This isnt an exact science and its not intended to reach some irrefutable conclusion. Its just football talk. 

If you want to check the entire league (?) have at it. That I dont have time or interest in. I'm simply focused on the GBPs and those teams we have to defeat in order to succeed.

 

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Just now, Leader said:

Thats where the regular season counts. Those wins and losses are the building blocks of a Super Bowl season. You dont get to the SB without a winning roster and winning regular season. A one game snap shot isnt definitive IMO.

But the question is and has always been whether or not a team gives up its postseason chances in order to pay that QB.

Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning... Those quarterbacks are good enough to get a poor team to the playoffs.  The question is whether or not the team gave up its chances at postseason success.

That's why I don't think the regular season means anything in this discussion.  Rodgers has already shown he can get untalented teams to the playoffs.  That wasn't due to his contract, but due to injuries. 

If you want to go ahead and keep that tally, have at it.  I'm not trying to stop you from doing anything, I'm just responding to it and pointing out that I don't think it says much. 

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6 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

But the question is and has always been whether or not a team gives up its postseason chances in order to pay that QB. Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning... Those quarterbacks are good enough to get a poor team to the playoffs.  The question is whether or not the team gave up its chances at postseason success. That's why I don't think the regular season means anything in this discussion.  Rodgers has already shown he can get untalented teams to the playoffs.  That wasn't due to his contract, but due to injuries. If you want to go ahead and keep that tally, have at it.  I'm not trying to stop you from doing anything, I'm just responding to it and pointing out that I don't think it says much. 

Thats fine and by calculating this limited metric (QB outlay) - how can you determine "whether or not a team gives up its postseason chances in order to pay that QB." By measuring regular season success (or failure).  that in theory at least - gets you into that post season. You dont think the regular season counts. You prefer a one game window. Fine. Sit back and relax cause eventually you'll get one.

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Just now, Leader said:

Thats fine and by calculating this limited metric (QB outlay) - how can you determine "whether or not a team gives up its postseason chances in order to pay that QB." By measuring regular season success (or failure).  that in theory at least - gets you into that post season. You dont think the regular season counts. You prefer a one game window. Fine. Sit back and relax cause eventually you'll get one.

If you spend all your money to get to the racetrack, how you gonna bet on a horse? 

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46 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Our defensive line must dominate their offensive line. It is clearly the weakness of their team. 

^ bingo.

Cousins will turn the ball over. Take advantage and make it so they can't run around the team with Dalvin Cook all game.

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2 hours ago, Striker said:

^ bingo.

Cousins will turn the ball over. Take advantage and make it so they can't run around the team with Dalvin Cook all game.

If Mathews has the same game tomorrow as he did last weekend then it will not be close. Notr sure I've ever seen a worse performance from a starting OLB. Reggie Gilbert needs to start...period.

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37 minutes ago, gizmo2012 said:

If Mathews has the same game tomorrow as he did last weekend then it will not be close. Notr sure I've ever seen a worse performance from a starting OLB. Reggie Gilbert needs to start...period.

I agree Matthews was awful, but I was referring more to Daniels, Clark and Wilkerson. I do think Matthews will play better, how could he not, and agree Gilbert looks like the better player and should start at this point of the proceedings. 

I think you can add Lowry and Adams into the line rotation and the advantage should still fall on our side. 

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